AHRC-NSF MOU: Diet, Migration, and Health in the Context of Medieval Mortality Crises

Lead Research Organisation: University of Bradford
Department Name: Faculty of Life Sciences

Abstract

Crisis mortality, a dramatic but temporary increase in mortality rate resulting from a single factor, is an important phenomenon in many populations. This project integrates paleodemographic and isotope analyses to examine temporal changes in diet and migration at the time of the 14th-century Black Death and the interactions among diet, migration, demography, health, sex, and socioeconomic status in the
context of the medieval mortality crises of famine and plague. This project will highlight the cultural and social aspects that affect crisis events and their outcomes. Clarifying how dietary resources were distributed in the medieval period will allow for an examination of the ways in which general resource availability in a population does not necessarily translate into widespread benefits in the face of socially-, economically-, or politically-prescribed patterns of access to those resources (Baro and Deubel, 2006; Wisner et al., 2004). This project will also contribute to an understanding of long-term changes in migration in the context of disaster and particularly the health consequences thereof. The results of this
project can aid predictions about what might happen in future demographic crises.

Planned Impact

This research will contribute to public education. The results will be made freely available via the PI's website and the Digital Archaeological Record (tDAR), used in public lectures, and reported via the Museum of London blog. Talks that DeWitte has given in the past (e.g., at Cleveland State University and the Wake Forest University Museum of Anthropology) drew large audiences from the general public. This
fall, she began participating in a continuing education course on epidemics through DavidsonLearns (Davidson, NC), and beginning summer 2017, she will co-teach an interdisciplinary extended education course on medieval health through Wake Forest University, NC. Thus she has opportunities to enhance public education about epidemic diseases and about the value of anthropological research in general. In the context of this project, DeWitte will develop a high school outreach program that will include talks in high school classes and "open lab" days at USC that will allow students to visit her labs and get a closer look at how she and her students study life in the past. The PI has contacted local high schools in South Carolina with predominantly non-White student populations, and her plans have been positively received by teachers in history and biology. Her program will increase high school students' knowledge of and interest in anthropology and research in general, and it has the potential to improve public perceptions of social science research and increase scientific competency in South Carolina (an EPSCoR state). This project will further the PI's ability to train students in bioarchaeological and paleodemographic methods, as funding from NSF will support graduate and undergraduate research assistants. Many of the undergraduate students who seek research opportunities with her at USC are members of underrepresented groups or are first generation college students, and she will further encourage participation of such students via presentations in USC Steps to STEM courses. Thus, the PI can actively recruit undergraduate research assistants from historically underrepresented groups and thereby promote diversity in anthropology and STEM. She will continue her current undergraduate mentoring activities, including supervision of data analysis, grant writing, and participation in professional conferences. Further, this project can benefit society by improving our understanding of and generating interest in risks during mortality crises. Clarifying the wider social and economic contexts of mortality crises contributes to the development of policies that can "reduce disasters and mitigate hazards" (Wisner et al., 2004: 4). The Black Death captures public attention, and this can be leveraged to produce positive change. The PI's previous research has generated considerable media interest and has been reported by, among others, the New York Times and NewScientist.com, and further work on the Black Death will likely similarly be broadcast widely to the public. The PI will actively pursue dissemination of this research by working with
science bloggers, posting findings on her website in language accessible to non-experts, and submitting publications to journals read by public health scholars and policy makers (e.g., Science Policy Forums and Journal of Public Health). By providing information about what happened at the time of the Black Death, this project can help motivate action in the face of crises in living populations. Such action might include not only increased spending on disease research, but also efforts to reduce disparities in access to food, medical care, and other resources that affect vulnerability to and mortality during crises.
 
Description We have identified a connection between the health of migrants and local individuals both before and after the Black Death. These can be expressed as a theory that migrants to London at this period were healthier than the local population, possible because of the effect of urban living on locals, but also because the healthiest and best-motivated individuals are those most likely to migrate for economic reasons. We have identified that individuals with evidence for dietary insufficiencies during childhood are more likely to die in the pandemic. We can demonstrate that there appears to be better access to higher quality (higher protein) foods for males than females during all periods, but in general the diet post-pandemic appears to be of better quality post-pandemic.
Exploitation Route In archaeological terms we now have a large dataset for diet and origins of medieval humans in England which can be compared with other similar datasets to improve interpretations and statisitical power. In human terms we have a huge amount of evidence for the presence of markers of dietary insufficiency in childhood and adolescence and a smaller subset for stress in maternal pregnancy/early life period which can be compared with data from other periods. The effects on individuals of a pandemic is an extremely timely dataset and can be of use to students of the current global situation and aftermath. The information regarding migrants, socio-economic origins will be particularly informative.
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections

 
Description Clover Leaf PhD funding
Amount £85,000 (GBP)
Organisation University of Bradford 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2022 
End 09/2025
 
Description research placement
Amount £3,000 (GBP)
Organisation White Rose College of Arts and Humanities 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2018 
End 12/2018
 
Title New integration of osteological information for age and sex, indicators of frailty and stable isotope data for peri-Black Death Period individuals from London using the MissForest algorithm 
Description Missing data were estimated using the MissForest algorithm, which is a multiple imputation procedure for mixed (continuous and categorical) data that uses a Random Forest model (Stekhoven & Bühlmann, 2012) The data are missing not at random (MNAR), which is a situation where MissForest outperforms other imputation methods in terms of accuracy (Alsaber et al., 2021) Performance was evaluated via out-of-bag (OOB) error estimation using the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) for continuous variables and proportion of falsely classified entries (PFC) for categorical variables. 
Type Of Material Data analysis technique 
Year Produced 2023 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact This database will allow us to investigate the effect of a pandemic on a population with reference to markers for diet, physiological stress, skeletal pathology. It will be published shortly. 
 
Description Invited presentation to Italian policy group. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Dondena Center for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policies, Bocconi University, Milan. Invited to present preliminary findings to this group with regard to the effect of migration and pandemic on the health and well-being of medieval humans, and the post pandemic findings.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Invited presentation to interested group, Sweden 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Centre for Research on Pandemics & Society (PANSOC), Oslo Metropolitan University (open to the public). Invited presentation to research group regarding our preliminary findings on the effect on health and well-being of those who lived and died during a well-documented pandemic in medieval Europe.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Lecturing and laboratory training for undergraduate and postgraduate students 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact University of Bradford School of Archaeology and Forensic Sciences. New data and interpretations incorporated into the curricular teaching for undergraduate and postgraduate students.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021,2022
 
Description Lecturing to students of anthropology 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact Cornell University, Anthropology Course. New data and interpretations incorporated into the curricular teaching for undergraduate and postgraduate students.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021,2022
 
Description Open Presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact (Un)natural Lives: Bioarchaeology of Urbanization Research Group (BURG) Conference (open to the public). A research group working on the effects of urbanization on human health and with relevance to recent and current urbanization in the world. Our research formed part of the information and discussion regarding the effects on diet and health of migration to an urban centre in the medieval period.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Open Presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact (Back)bone to the Future: Bioarchaeological Perspectives on Climate Change and Crisis, German Archaeological Institute (open to the public)
Presentation focussing on the effect of climate change/pandemic disasters in the medieval period as assessed through diet and migration, and the relevance for current lives.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Participation at workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Approaches to Life and Health in Medieval Cities Workshop, University of Amsterdam. Novel data and interpretations of the effect of migration and diet on susceptibility to death during the pandemic in medieval London contributing to this research topic.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Research-led addition to University teaching 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact University of Louisville, Anthropology Course. New data and interpretations incorporated into the curricular teaching for undergraduate and postgraduate students.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021,2022
 
Description contribution by De Witte to television documentary about London by Voltage UK 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact an interview which outlined the study and what we hope to learn about the people of London during the period of the Black Death and beyond
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017