Higher-Order Evidence in Epistemology, Ethics, and Aesthetics

What difference does higher-order evidence make to what it is rational to think, feel or do? This project assembles an international team to explore answers to this question and the issues they raise.

First-order evidence indicates or makes it likely that a claim is (not) true. Higher-order evidence is evidence about one's evidence or ability to assess it. Suppose that a detective is investigating a murder. The evidence the clues provide - concerning motives, access to the gun, etc. - suggests that the butler did it. This is first-order evidence. The butler belongs to a minority ethnic group. This does not make it more or less likely that the butler did it but might suggest that the detective's assessment of the evidence is biased. It is higher-order evidence.

Some claim that higher-order evidence generates rational dilemmas. If the detective thinks that the butler did it despite the risk of bias, they are irrationally overconfident. If the detective does not think this, they are ignoring the clues. It is puzzling to think that there are cases in which there is no reasonable way to respond to a body of evidence.

Others argue that higher-order evidence can make it rational to believe against one's better judgement. Given the clues, it is rational for the detective to believe that the butler did it. Given the risk of bias, it is rational for them to believe that this is not rational. But this combination of beliefs seems the paradigm of irrationality - it involves a person at odds with themselves.

This is a brief indication of some surprising conclusions to which reflection on higher-order evidence leads. These are issues in epistemology - the theory of knowledge or, more broadly, rational belief. Strikingly similar issues arise in ethics and aesthetics. Suppose that a philanthropist is deciding whether to donate to charity A or charity B. Their research suggests that A is best. However, their advisor in a rare lapse of judgement says that it does not suggest this. Suppose that the features of an artwork a viewer experiences make it admirable. However, they are aware that such works are in vogue, which might sway their estimation of it. In each case, the structure is the same. A person has first-order evidence that supports a response and higher-order evidence that suggests otherwise, or suggests that their response to the first-order evidence is unreliable. Given this, analogous issues arise. Does the philanthropist face a dilemma? Should the viewer admire the work against their better judgement?

While there is much work on the role of higher-order evidence in ethics, aesthetics, and epistemology, there has been little work at their intersection despite the manifest parallels. As a result, lessons learned in one area are not applied elsewhere, proposals are tailored to a particular field without asking whether they extend to others, and opportunities to identify general patterns are lost. The aim of the network is to encourage research on the impact of higher-order evidence across domains. It will promote a broader perspective on higher-order evidence in another respect - by engaging philosophers in the Western tradition with presently neglected ideas from Chinese philosophy. This inclusive approach will enable researchers to assess the reach of proposals and ensure cross-pollination.

The project will foster cutting-edge research through a series of workshops. It will make available its results through a high-profile publication, support future work and teaching on the topic through a state-of-the-art survey and bibliographical guide, and foster international connections, especially but not only between the UK and China.

The concerns of the network are not only theoretical but of real-life significance. How should we conduct ourselves given what we know about our foibles and limitations? A further aim is to encourage engagement with the research by non-academics with a view to influencing practice.

Higher-order evidence is of real-world significance. The question of what to think, feel, or do in light of what we know about our limited capacities of reasoning and about irrelevant influences on how we exercise those capacities is one that people face in everyday situations. For example, how should a member of an appointment panel arrive at a decision given the evidence of implicit bias? If a person is suffering stress, how should they factor that into their deliberations when making investment decisions?

In view of this, one of the aims of the project is to encourage non-academic audiences to engage with the ideas that emerge from the research, to guide them in doing so, and to bring them to bear on issues they experience in their own lives. This is not just a matter of stimulating debate - the aim in part is to work with people beyond academia in developing strategies that influence actual practice.

To ensure that the research activities connect with and engage those outside higher education, the Principal Investigator will organise and, together with one of the core members of the network (see Case for Support), deliver a workshop targeting the business community on evidence-based decision-making. This will be free and, exploiting the University of Southampton's established networks, widely advertised.

At this workshop, the network members will introduce the concerns of the project, including some of the puzzles that arise from reflection on higher-order evidence, in an engaging, accessible fashion. Most importantly, they will explain how higher-order evidence can influence our decision-making in situations of a sort with which the delegates will be familiar, for example, job interviews or staff appraisals. Following the presentation, the delegates will have the chance to suggest strategies for taking account of higher-order evidence in decision-making, which they might apply in their own work, and to discuss in groups - guided by the network members - their likely effectiveness.

The aim of the workshop is to help business leaders in the region to reflect on the ways higher-order evidence does and should inform their decision-making, and to support them in arriving at strategies - informed by the research emerging from the proposed project - to implement in work environments.

A guiding principle of this activity is that the influence is not one-way. Engaging with a non-academic audience will furnish examples and experiences against which to test the theories that the philosophers participating in the network advance. The workshop will take place midway through the project to ensure that network members have the chance to reflect on the real-world cases and the insights of those involved in them.

The planned workshop is intended as a test-run of a format for use on future occasions and, suitably revised, with groups representing other sectors, for example, charities, the media, and education. In this way, the workshop that falls within the remit of the proposed project will offer a template for activities which extend beyond it.