Vulnerabilities to Modern Slavery? Predicting the presence and location of informalised workplaces in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic

Informalised businesses secure competitive advantage by labour exploitation, particularly migrant workers who tolerate insecure, irregular hours, wage underpayment and no holiday pay. Other aspects of modern slavery 'bond' labour to workplaces where accommodation and subsistence act as payment in kind. Since 2016, businesses using informalized employment and modern slavery annually generate 12% of Britain's GDP sustaining 2.5 million workers equal to 9% of formal private sector workers. The Covid-19 lockdown in Leicester has highlighted that these practices remain coercive and unsafe for workers but are potentially dangerous and life threatening beyond the site of employment.

This research project focuses upon the following key issues:

1.Estimating the scale and location of informal workplaces in specific sectors: Despite awareness of issues relating to the informal economy, there are no official estimates of the scale of this economic sector (and local sector case studies cannot be aggregated to generate sector-specific business totals). The first work package will therefore provide (a) an accurate estimate of the number of hand car washes, nail bars, and garment manufacturers in England and Wales, and (b) identify the spatial factors and neighbourhood characteristics that influence the location of these businesses. We draw upon information from Facebook and Google Maps, in conjunction with virtual drives through individual neighbourhoods via Google Streetview, to track down the presence of informalised businesses. Using official data sources and statistical modelling, we are then able to identify the distinguishing characteristics of those neighbourhoods containing hand car washes, nail bars or garment manufacturers - and those neighbourhoods that do not. This enables us to (a) predict those neighbourhoods across England and Wales where informal businesses are more likely to be located; and (b) understand the factors that shape the presence of these businesses - and how this can inform strategic enforcement and the targeting of interventions. The absence of this type of information has hitherto limited the ability of enforcement agencies to move from reactive, intelligence-led interventions towards proactive geographically informed actions.

2.The Covid-19 pandemic has clearly restricted the movement of potential customers and workers in relation to informal businesses. Google Mobility data, however, has revealed distinctive spatial variations in the scale and location of journeys made by residents. The Clewer Safe Car Wash app enables consumers to register any concerns with the Modern Slavery Helpline. Utilising the mobility and Clewer data, this research will also examine the extent to which there is a relationship between the transformation of mobility levels, the ability of consumers to act as 'enforcement' agents (in relation to hand car washes), and the predicted location of hand car washes, nail bars, and garment manufacturers across neighbourhoods in England and Wales.

3.Our research has already informed the activities of enforcement agencies more generally in relation to hand car washes. Using our partnership with these organisations, the final component of this research project will use site visits in conjunction with enforcement agencies to informal businesses to explore how the Covid-19 pandemic has impacted upon employers, workers - and the extent to which it has facilitated or disrupted pathways into modern slavery.

The knowledge and data generated by this research project will then be transformed into an online interactive resource and neighbourhood level map that will enable enforcement agencies to (a) better understand the nature and location of informal businesses; (b) target their interventions more effectively; and (c) tailor the nature of these interventions in relation to specific sectors within the informal economy.