Improving projections for the future of bluetongue and its vectors under scenarios of climate and environmental change

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The future impact of climate change on health is of major interest to certain Government departments and national and international organisations, given their roles in horizon scanning and policy development for adaptation/mitigation of climate change impacts. BT does not affect directly human health but it is a threat to food security, and it is perceived as a prime example of how climate change might affect vector-borne diseases, both human and animal, in the future. Hence, interest in our work is not limited to veterinary and farming professionals. This is exemplified by some of the organisations which in recent years have commissioned inputs from us on BT, on climate change and disease, or on the spread of vector-borne diseases: the UK government's Foresight programme (2005), the UK's Health Protection Agency (2010), the World Bank (2011) and the US Department of Defense (2011) as well as non-governmental organisations (the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Catholic Overseas Development Agency, Humanitarian Futures Programme). We have also recently (September 2011) received funding from industry (Horse Race Betting Levy Board, £130,000 over 4 years) to train a veterinary resident in the epidemiology of a closely related disease to BT called African horse sickness (AHS), including adaptation of our basic farm-to-farm transmission model for this disease.
These or equivalent organisations will benefit from the proposed work, as per academics, in terms of understanding, methods and application. Understanding - by adding to the evidence-base that climate change and non-climate drivers can affect diseases. Methods - by providing a tool for quantitative assessment of climate change's future impact on a vector-borne disease, as well as the role of non-climate disease drivers. Application - by providing projections for the future of BT, along with the uncertainty surrounding the projections, under future conditions of climate and environment, and with the ability to investigate control options.
We therefore envisage the outputs of the proposal to be useful to a range of organisations in terms of preparedness for future vector-borne disease incidence and control. Hence, we intend that it will contribute in terms of enhancing the effectiveness of policy formulation, and to enhancing quality of life.