FACCE-JPI Knowledge Hub:Cropland WP
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Aberdeen
Department Name: Inst of Biological and Environmental Sci
Abstract
FACCE MACSUR focuses on modelling European agriculture with climate change for food security. The work is organized in three themes on crop, livestock and trade modelling. The partnership consists of 73 partners from 16 countries all over Europe. The overarching challenge is to develop a pan-European capability in the development, use and interpretation of models to perform risk assessments of the impacts of climate change on European agriculture. To address this the following challenges must be met:
1. Identify and address a range of issues between models in different themes to enable their closer integration including issues of scale and data processing.
2. Train a new generation of scientists to work across models which contribute to greater integration of models. This challenge can be described as focusing on the creation of integrated modellers as opposed to integrated models.
3. Determine the contribution that can be made to reducing uncertainty over the impacts of climate change on European food security by adopting integrated models of crop production, animal production and trade.
1. Identify and address a range of issues between models in different themes to enable their closer integration including issues of scale and data processing.
2. Train a new generation of scientists to work across models which contribute to greater integration of models. This challenge can be described as focusing on the creation of integrated modellers as opposed to integrated models.
3. Determine the contribution that can be made to reducing uncertainty over the impacts of climate change on European food security by adopting integrated models of crop production, animal production and trade.
Technical Summary
FACCE MACSUR focuses on modelling European agriculture with climate change for food security. The work is organized in three themes on crop, livestock and trade modelling. The partnership consists of 73 partners from 16 countries all over Europe. The overarching challenge is to develop a pan-European capability in the development, use and interpretation of models to perform risk assessments of the impacts of climate change on European agriculture. To address this the following challenges must be met:
1. Identify and address a range of issues between models in different themes to enable their closer integration including issues of scale and data processing.
2. Train a new generation of scientists to work across models which contribute to greater integration of models. This challenge can be described as focusing on the creation of integrated modellers as opposed to integrated models.
3. Determine the contribution that can be made to reducing uncertainty over the impacts of climate change on European food security by adopting integrated models of crop production, animal production and trade.
1. Identify and address a range of issues between models in different themes to enable their closer integration including issues of scale and data processing.
2. Train a new generation of scientists to work across models which contribute to greater integration of models. This challenge can be described as focusing on the creation of integrated modellers as opposed to integrated models.
3. Determine the contribution that can be made to reducing uncertainty over the impacts of climate change on European food security by adopting integrated models of crop production, animal production and trade.
Planned Impact
The project aims to improve our understanding of the uncertainties surrounding the ways in which European agriculture will adapt to and mitigate climate change. It is therefore of direct relevance to policy makers and the producers and users of food in the European Union. The project is very high profile and is certain to attract considerable interest from these communities as it progresses. In order to ensure that we able to meet this demand for information we will integrate dissemination within the project. A website is under development and it is intended that stakeholders will be involved in the major events of the project, beginning with the kick-off meeting and concluding with the final conference. Beyond Europe, it is expected that the activities of this project will also contribute to the parallel, global modelling efforts of the AgMIP consortium.
Publications
Albanito F
(2022)
How Modelers Model: the Overlooked Social and Human Dimensions in Model Intercomparison Studies.
in Environmental science & technology
Constantin J
(2019)
Management and spatial resolution effects on yield and water balance at regional scale in crop models
in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Ghaley BB
(2018)
Simulation of Soil Organic Carbon Effects on Long-Term Winter Wheat (Triticum aestivum) Production Under Varying Fertilizer Inputs.
in Frontiers in plant science
Grosz B
(2017)
The implication of input data aggregation on up-scaling soil organic carbon changes
in Environmental Modelling & Software
Hoffmann H
(2015)
Variability of effects of spatial climate data aggregation on regional yield simulation by crop models
in Climate Research
Hoffmann H
(2016)
Impact of Spatial Soil and Climate Input Data Aggregation on Regional Yield Simulations.
in PloS one
Kuhnert M
(2017)
Impact analysis of climate data aggregation at different spatial scales on simulated net primary productivity for croplands
in European Journal of Agronomy
Maharjan G
(2019)
Effects of input data aggregation on simulated crop yields in temperate and Mediterranean climates
in European Journal of Agronomy
Merante P
(2017)
Adopting soil organic carbon management practices in soils of varying quality: Implications and perspectives in Europe
in Soil and Tillage Research
Nemo
(2016)
Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) Equilibrium and Model Initialisation Methods: an Application to the Rothamsted Carbon (RothC) Model
in Environmental Modeling & Assessment
| Description | The FACCE-MACSUR project provide a platform for international scientist to come together and work on crop modelling in EUROPE. The University of Aberdeen participated mainly on the Scaling Exercise of the project. The objective was to show and quantify the impact of input data aggregation on different target variables. Three different target variables, SOC, yield and net primary production (NPP), were analysed in this exercise. For SOC an aggregation error of 50 -120 % was discovered with a decreasing effect for coarser resolutions (1km, 10km, 25km, 50km and 100km grid cells). Additionally, output data aggregation only marginally reduced differences of model outputs between models indicating that errors caused by deficient model structure are likely to persist even if requirements on the spatial resolution of model outputs are low. We discovered that the impact of soil data aggregation is stronger than the impact of the aggregation of climate data and is increased, if both data sets are aggregated. This could be shown for the target variable yield and NPP. For yield the aggregation effects show distinct patterns depending on the type of data being combined. Large negative aggregation effects were found in areas with soils characterized by high available water holding capacity and large positive aggregation effects in areas with soils of predominantly low available water holding capacity. The aggregation effect of climate data aggregation is for NPP slightly smaller than for yield. The analysis of the NPP data also showed increased aggregation effects for shorter time periods (<15 years), compared to a 30 year average. The aggregation effect has a larger impact on the vulnerability analysis, which reflects the greater impact of aggregation effects for years with extreme weather conditions. A finer spatial resolution of climate input data will not greatly improve simulations for long term averages of NPP or vulnerability, but might reduce the aggregation effect for shorter periods. The greatest changes are detected for the steps from 1 km to 10 km resolution and from 50 km to 100 km. During the analysis we also discussed, developed and used different approaches to calculate the aggregation effect. Overall, we were able to meet the main objective of quantifying the aggregation error for the three target variables SOC, yield and NPP. |
| Exploitation Route | The model inter-comparison and scaling protocols can be used in future modelling of agro-ecosystems in Europe |
| Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink |
| URL | http://www.macsur.eu/ |
| Description | In this project we have contributed our modelling expertise to model cropping systems in Europe. We are collaborating with other researchers through the MACSUR project and have inter-model comparison papers finalised and now published |
| First Year Of Impact | 2014 |
| Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink |
| Impact Types | Societal |
| Description | Crop-Soil Modelling Workshop Initiative |
| Organisation | Julich Research Centre |
| Country | Germany |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Jannis Groh (Helmholz Forschungszentrum Julich) and Horst Gerke (ZALF) organised an Workshop for a model comparison on lysimeter measurements. I provided computersimulation results of DAYCENT that contribiuted to the study. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The partners collected my simulation results (and the results of other partners). These data were compared and discussed on a workshop. During peparing a manuscript for publication there was an online discussion about the results and data analysis. |
| Impact | A publication about this first step of this study is currentlty under review. |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | Crop-Soil Modelling Workshop Initiative |
| Organisation | Leibniz Association |
| Department | Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research |
| Country | Germany |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Jannis Groh (Helmholz Forschungszentrum Julich) and Horst Gerke (ZALF) organised an Workshop for a model comparison on lysimeter measurements. I provided computersimulation results of DAYCENT that contribiuted to the study. |
| Collaborator Contribution | The partners collected my simulation results (and the results of other partners). These data were compared and discussed on a workshop. During peparing a manuscript for publication there was an online discussion about the results and data analysis. |
| Impact | A publication about this first step of this study is currentlty under review. |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | Oral presentation at the iCROPM 2016 International Crop Modelling Symposium |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Oral presentation at the iCROPM 2016 International Crop Modelling Symposium. I presented my results on the work in the Scaling Exercise of the MACSUR project. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
| Description | Oral presentation at the international Environmental Modelling and Software conference in Toulouse |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Abstract submission and oral presentation with the title: Effects of climate data aggregation on regional NPP modelling |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
| URL | https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1563&context=iemssconference |
| Description | Oral presentation at the international conference of the EGU in Vienna |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Abstract submission and oral presentation with the title: Impact of climate aggregation over different scales on regional NPP modelling |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
| URL | http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2016/EGU2016-15736.pdf |
| Description | Poster presentation at the EGU conference 2017 in Vienna |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Abstract submission and poster presentation with the titla: Impact of input data aggregation on simulated NPP of wheat |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2017/EGU2017-16522-1.pdf |
| Description | Session convener at the EGU General Assembly 2016 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Session convener at the EGU General Assembly 2016. The size of the session was about 30 people, but the conference was larger. I organized this session with colleagues to provide on the General Assembly a plattform to present there work. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
| Description | WP3 Scaling workshop MACSUR in Toulouse |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Study participants or study members |
| Results and Impact | Presentation and discussion of results. The results were analysed regarding possible outcomes for publications. Additional, plans for future work was discussed and sceduled. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |