FACCE-JPI Knowledge Hub: MACSUR-Partner 25

The key challenges that CropM have addressed in the first phase of MACSUR were: (i) crop model intercomparison and improvement, (ii) data management, (iii) methods of scaling and model linking, (iv) scenario development and impact uncertainty evaluation, (v) capacity building and (vi) the development of methodological case and integrated pilot studies on impact assessment. Recently, an overview has been completed on the state of the art of crop models to assess climate change risks to food. Progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to all crop models (to a different extent). Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, particularly for multi-model ensemble simulations and consideration of novel modelling approaches. The key challenges of CropM in MACSUR2 are to further advance crop modelling for improved assessment of climate change impacts on food security. Particular emphasis will be on cross-cutting activities to advance crop modelling as integrated part of IAM. Like in MACSUR1, the knowledge hub strategy includes the stimulation of excellent science, the support of capacity and network building activities, jointly work on explicit and comprehensive case studies on integrated regional and Europe-wide climate risk assessment in close interaction with stakeholders.

CropM in MACSUR2 will develop research areas, which have not received sufficient attention in MACSUR1. In particular, developing approaches of improving models to better capture variability and extremes (WP C1), performing empirical crop-weather analysis to complement knowledge from dynamic process-based crop modelling (WP C2), or to consider management variables in the scaling exercises (WP C3) as well as the full range of methods for analysing uncertainty and error propagation in climate impact assessments (WP C4). Moreover, both in capacity building (WPC5) and in the cross-cutting activities (WP C6), there will be more emphasis on multi-scale and integrated analysis of adapting to climate change by alternative genotypes, management practices, systemic changes (e.g. new technologies) and structural changes and transformations of agrifood systems at farm and regional scales. In a concerted effort by MACSUR partners, this should lead to robust European-wide impact assessments.

Global food security are at the forefront of discussions at all levels of society. FACCE MACSUR Knowledge Hub Phase 2 will provide significant advance in the knowledge and methodologies for risk assessment for European agriculture and food security under climate change. The project will deliver a detailed European fully integrated analysis. The greatest knowledge advancement will stem from the interdisciplinary and diverse framework implemented within the project. This type of broad interdisciplinary study may lead to results that are significantly different in comparison to previous assesments in this field. FACCE MACSUR Knowledge Hub requires a European rather than a national or local approach to achieve the objectives outlined in this proposal. Specific expertise is in certain cases only available in particular EU countries and would not be possible to find in individual countries. Additionally, the exchange skills and ToK between partners will improve the level of the scientific research and will respectively enhance the status of science in the EU. Most importantly, the dissemination of data and methodologies from this project will contribute to the objectives of the European Commission which aim to coordinate the European Science Initiative by encouraging and providing the necessary tools and support for high impact, substantial science. We will be able to highlight our results internationally and will further unify the European scientific community. Reproducible and reliable results, high impact publications and the dissemination of the results at international meetings will increase the profile of European Science.

A successful outcome of this project would be of direct benefit to food security, farmer and consumer, potentially on a global scale. In our work we are addressing one of BBSRC's three key strategic priorities "Food security: bioscience for a sustainable supply of sufficient, affordable, nutritious and safe food, adapting to a rapidly changing world" by sustainably enhancing agricultural production. National and global challenges related to climate change and food security will only increase the importance of wheat in the food supply, and the proposed work on wheat ideotype design for a changing climate will deliver new knowledge and a strong science base to future wheat breeding and more sustainable agriculture.

Dr Semenov has experience in presenting ideas for potential commercial exploitation and has an excellent track record of engaging with the scientific community and stakeholders. Public engagement will be carried out via press releases, talks at Open Meetings and displays at the Rothamsted Open Days. Rothamsted Open Days also involves stakeholders. The PI will present key findings to non-specialist stakeholders and the general public to further emphasise BBSRC's role in promoting research to support crop science and food security.