SCORCHIO: Sustainable Cities: Options for Responsing to Climate cHange Impacts and Outcomes

Lead Research Organisation: University of East Anglia
Department Name: Environmental Sciences

Abstract

Our urban and city areas are becoming increasingly unhealthy, dangerous and uncomfortable to work and live in. These areas are remarkably vulnerable to global warming; unhealthiness and discomfort from buildings overheating in the summer and increased pollution as well as flooding, subsidence and other effects. The 2003 heat wave was considered responsible for 14,802 and 2,045 excess deaths in France and England and Wales respectively. Projected rates of urban growth mean that vulnerability will increase at the same time as the impacts of climate change become greater. Actions by planners, designers and infrastructure owners are required in the short term if cities are to avoid becoming ever more vulnerable in the long term. These are already urgent problems. Neither the effects of the urban landscape nor the heat released by human activities within cities are considered in standard climate change research, but these have been shown to be potentially very significant. Also the science and practice of adaptation of the built environment to climate change is still in its infancy. For climate change adaptation strategies to be developed for cities and regions in the UK, there is therefore an urgent need for decision support tools to appraise and design adaptation options. The new forecasts from the UK Climate Impacts Programme UKCIP (called the UKCIPnext scenarios) will provide new, better predictions. SCORCHIO (Sustainable Cities: Options for Responding to Climate cHange Impacts and Outcomes) aims to develop tools that use these new forecasts to help planners, designers, engineers and users to adapt urban areas, with a particular emphasis on heat and human comfort. It will do so by addressing the following objectives:1. To develop on a PC a climate simulator for urban areas that can be used for assessing the problems and the adaptation to avoid or reduce them, taking account of both greenhouse warming and other weather changes and the additional effect of the urban landscape and heating due to the buildings, roads and traffic. 2. To model typical buildings and their surroundings in order to develop a new, readily usable heat and human comfort vulnerability index that accounts for the effects of building construction, type of building and how buildings, spaces and roads are sited in the city and urban areas. 3. To estimate the heat from buildings, together with a set of energy-related air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions to understand different building adaptation options.4. To develop computer map-based (GIS-based) methods for examining adaptation in planning and design to avoid climate change problems for urban and city areas. 5. To demonstrate the methods and tools developed in this work through in depth case studies, working in partnership with practicing planners and designers in Manchester and Sheffield.

Publications

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Description Our urban and city areas are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly with respect to heat waves and effects such as unhealthiness and discomfort from buildings overheating in the summer. Actions by planners, designers and infrastructure owners are required in the short term if cities are to avoid becoming ever more vulnerable in the long term. Decisions about the necessary actions will be taken more effectively if appropriate tools are used. Thus the SCORCHIO (Sustainable Cities: Options for Responding to Climate cHange Impacts and Outcomes) project is developing the SCHEEME (Sustainable Cities: Heat, Energy and Emissions Evaluation) decision-making tool to help planners, designers, engineers and other users to adapt urban areas, with a particular emphasis on heat and human comfort. Development of SCHEEME is being led by the University of Manchester working in partnership with practicing planners and designers in Manchester and Sheffield together with the University of East Anglia (UEA) and other project partners.



An essential component of SCHEEME is the visualisation of heat scenarios and vulnerability at various scales ranging from the city scale, through the neighbourhood to the building scale, both for the present day and for the future. The necessary climate change projections have been developed by the UEA SCORCHIO team and climate modellers from the Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC).



While the new UKCP09 climate projections provide a very valuable package of information, the underlying climate models do not include any influence of the urban surface on climate or any of the other factors which could change the intensity of the urban heat island (UHI). This issue has been addressed in SCORCHIO using two of the climate modelling tools utilised in UKCP09 - the Hadley Centre's regional climate model (RCM) and the Climatic Research Unit's (CRU) weather generator (WG). A set of RCM simulations has been undertaken which are consistent with the medium emissions scenario used for UKCP09 but which also include a representation of cities at sub-grid resolution as well as anthropogenic heat released to the urban environment through human activity such as heating and cooling of buildings and traffic. This sub-grid (tiling) approach is achieved by sub-dividing each model 25 km grid cell into up to five vegetation types (such as grass) and up to four other surface types (including urban).



A method has then been developed for combining the outputs from these urban simulations with the CRU WG to create synthetic daily time series of weather variables including temperature and rainfall at 5 km resolution. This is done by training the WG on observed data and then 'perturbing' it for the future using change factors taken from the RCM. To improve the WG's UHI representation for the baseline period (1961-1990), the WG has been adjusted by applying offsets to bring it in line with the MOHC 5km observed temperature data.



Finally, maps have been produced showing how mean temperature and also extremes of temperature (such as the number of hot days and warm nights) may change by the 2050s. These maps show the spatial pattern of change across Manchester and Sheffield, reflecting the influence of urban areas as well as that of the Pennines and other geographic characteristics. While the results indicate substantial warming by the 2050s (a rise of about 2.8 degrees C in summer mean temperature for Manchester), the warming is rather uniform across the region and there is no indication of relative intensification of the UHI (i.e., the difference between urban and rural temperature) - unless it is assumed that the anthropogenic release of heat in the urban area also increases substantially.These new climate projections for urban areas form the basis of the city-scale hazard information in SCHEEME and are also being used in building simulation models to provide information about the risk of overheating.
Exploitation Route They were used by the other partners.
Sectors Environment

 
Description In Scorchio, we developed scenarios that were used by the other partners.
First Year Of Impact 2009
Sector Environment