Resubmission (due to requested amendments): New models for spatially structured populations

Lead Research Organisation: University of Oxford
Department Name: Statistics

Abstract

There is great interest in understanding genetic diversity in spatially extended populations, bothbecause of the intrinsic interest in population structure and because of the need for realistic statistical models of human sequence variation. Current analyses mainly assume that populationsare restricted to live at points of a lattice at constant density. Yet real populations are not subdivided in this way and nor are they stable over long times. Indeed genetic diversity is shaped primarily bylarge-scale population movements.The principal aim of this project is to investigate the relative effects of short and long range fluctuations on evolving populations. This will be done in the framework of a new mathematical model for evolution in spatially extended populations which explicitly incorporates large scale fluctuations. It includes the classical island and stepping stone models as special cases, but can also be formulated to describe populations evolving in a continuum. Using a combination of analysis and simulation we aim to identify signatures of long-range fluctuations which could be measured in genetic data collected from spatially distributed populations.

Publications

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Barton N (2013) Modelling evolution in a spatial continuum in Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment

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Barton NH (2010) A new model for extinction and recolonization in two dimensions: quantifying phylogeography. in Evolution; international journal of organic evolution

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Berestycki N (2013) Large scale behaviour of the spatial $\varLambda$-Fleming-Viot process in Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincaré, Probabilités et Statistiques

 
Description One of the outstanding successes of mathematical population genetics is Kingman's coalescent. This model is characterised in terms of a single parameter, the `effective population size' which somehow manages to account for a myriad of evolutionary forces. In an idealised population, this effective population size would equal the census population size, but in real populations the difference between the two can be many orders of magnitude. Using a new framework that we have developed over the course of the grant we have made considerable progress in understanding how spatial structure and, in particular, the large-scale extinction/recolonisation events that dominate the demographic history of many species impact on the effective population size.
Exploitation Route There are now a number of groups worldwide developing methods for inference from our framework for modelling. This is one step towards putting approaches to inferring demographic history on a sound mathematical footing.
Sectors Environment

 
Description EPSRC
Amount £300,153 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/I01361X/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 12/2011 
End 11/2014
 
Description EPSRC
Amount £300,153 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/I01361X/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 12/2011 
End 12/2014