PP3 SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODEL AND COMMUNITY IMPACT SIMULATORS
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Glasgow
Department Name: Urban Studies
Abstract
There is currently no coherent research structure in place to enable stakeholders to ascertain the full impact of EWEs (extreme weather events) on housing, employment, SMEs, crime, health and emergency services at the local level. While there is now a considerable body of research that has examined the socio-economic impacts of flooding and other weather event outcomes, the existing work either tends to be too narrow in focus (such as the cost of insurance claims), pitched at a macro scale (at the National or European level, for example), limited to the immediate effects of the event (such as insurance claims), or primarily qualitative or descriptive in nature. There is a very real need, therefore, to develop an integrated model that will facilitate the quantitative analysis of extreme weather events at a community level (such as postcode or postcode sector level); consider the direct impacts on a range of sectors; consider the interconnectedness of these sectors and hence the indirect impacts of an extreme weather event; and consider lagged effects as well as the contemporaneous effects. The goal of this project is to develop an empirical model in conjunction with stakeholders that will meet these requirements and provide stakeholders with an integrated decision making framework that will enable them to explore short and long term EWE scenarios.
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
| Gwilym Pryce (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Chen Y
(2013)
Implications of rising flood-risk for employment location: a GMM spatial model with agglomeration and endogenous house price effects
in Journal of Property Research
Gibb K
(2013)
Describing Inequalities in Access to Employment and the Associated Geography of Wellbeing
in Urban Studies
Levin E
(2011)
The dynamics of spatial inequality in UK housing wealth
in Housing Policy Debate
Osland L
(2012)
Housing Prices and Multiple Employment Nodes: Is the Relationship Nonmonotonic?
in Housing Studies
Pryce G
(2011)
Flood risk and the consequences for housing of a changing climate: An international perspective
in Risk Management
Pryce G
(2011)
The Impact of Floods on House Prices: An Imperfect Information Approach with Myopia and Amnesia
in Housing Studies
Pryce G
(2013)
Housing Submarkets and the Lattice of Substitution
in Urban Studies
| Description | • We developed what we believe is the first spatial econometric model of the impact of flood risk (as opposed to particular flood events) on the location of employment. Our results showed a significant negative effect of flood risk on employment location. • We estimated what we believe is the first model of flood risk impacts to incorporate the impact of agglomeration economies: a major omission in the literature on the socio-economic impacts of flood risk is the failure to explore the mitigating effects of proximity to other firms in the wider urban area. Our results showed that agglomeration economies play a significant role in mitigating the impacts of flood risk. This is important because it suggests that flood risk may have a more deleterious effect on employment in areas where economic agglomeration is weak. • We sought to base these models on a high-resolution measure of employment location that would allow us to capture the local effects of flood risk-most previous studies consider employment patterns at much higher levels of geographical aggregation. • We also developed what we believe to be the first model of flood risk impacts to allow for connections between employment and house prices (achieved by developing a GMM two-stage least squares spatial econometric model). Our results suggested that the feedback effects from house prices to employment were weak. • We also estimated a number of models of house prices which took into account feedback effects from employment and deprivation. Our results showed that these feedback effects significantly increased the overall impact on house prices of increases in flood risk. • Drawing on insights from the economic psychology and sociology of risk literatures, we developed a theoretical framework to help clarify the interpretation of flood risk/flood event impacts on socio-economic variables. One of the important corollaries of this conceptual model was that the responsiveness of house prices and employment to changes in flood risk are likely to increase over time (because the drivers of inertia-"amnesia" and "myopia"-are likely to diminish as floods become more frequent). • We have helped develop the theory of housing submarkets and access to employment which are crucial for understanding how housing and labour markets will respond to changing flood risk. |
| Exploitation Route | Outputs from the project have been cited more than 43 times in leading international journals including Urban flood impact assessment: A state-of-the-art review (Urban Water Journal, 2015), Nature Climate Change (2013), Land Economics (2013), Urban Studies (2014, 2016), Journal of Applied Econometrics (2015), and has helped shape the literature on housing submarkets and the impact of flooding. The work has also been cited in publications by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (2011), a leading charitable think tank. |
| Sectors | Environment,Other |
| Description | • Invited to provide expert advice on hedonic estimation of the socio-economic impact of energy ratings by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (October 2011) • Also invited to submit evidence to the Royal Society of Edinburgh Inquiry on Climate Change (Sept 2010) • request for evidence on future impacts of flood risk on housing finance contributed to Defra's Climate Risk Assessment Review of Risks to the Mortgage Sector • Invited to present evidence (Nov 2010) to the Committee on Climate Change, an independent body established under the Climate Change Act • Invited to provide advice and evidence (April 2011) to the Institute for Volunteering Research as part of their Evidence Assessment on Environmental Volunteering • Member of Sustainability Advisory Group (Office of the Deputy Prime Minister 2005-2006) • Member of the Defra UK Economic Advisory Panel (since 2012) - my contribution has recently been evaluated by the Defra Chief Economist as "exemplary" (Defra Annual Review of EAP Membership) • Invited by the Chief Economists at Defra to present to the Defra Economic Advisory Panel the results of our award winning paper on the impact of flood risk on house prices (April 2013). • Invited to review Defra Climate Change Risk Assessment proposals for Defra Economic Advisory Panel Oct 2014 drawing on the CREW project findings. • Request for CREW research output for the "Cross Cutting Issues" section of the Defra Climate Change Risk Assessment (Roger Street, Dec 2015). • • Development of Community Impact Simulator (CIS) toolkit as part of the WISP (What If Scenario Portal) Google Maps web interface (see www.extreme-weather-impacts.net ), developed in collaboration with Dr Stephen Hallett and colleagues at the University of Cranfield. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2011 |
| Sector | Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Description | Invited to present evidence (Nov 2010) to the Committee on Climate Change, an independent body established under the Climate Change Act |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Description | Invited to provide expert advice by Department of Energy and Climate Change (October 2011) |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Description | Invited to review Defra Climate Change Risk Assessment proposals for Defra Economic Advisory Panel Oct 2014 drawing on the CREW project findings. |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Description | Invited to submit evidence to the Royal Society of Edinburgh Inquiry on Climate Change (Sept 2010) |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Description | Member of Defra Economic Advisory Panel (2012) |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Membership of a guideline committee |
| Description | • Invited by the Chief Economists at Defra to present to the Defra Economic Advisory Panel the results of our award winning paper on the impact of flood risk on house prices (April 2013). |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Description | • Invited to provide advice and evidence (April 2011) to the Institute for Volunteering Research as part of their Evidence Assessment on Environmental Volunteering |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Description | • Request for CREW research output for the "Cross Cutting Issues" section of the Defra Climate Change Risk Assessment (Roger Street, Dec 2015). |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Title | Community Impact Simulator toolkit as part of the WISP (What If Scenario Portal) Google Maps web interface |
| Description | Community Impact Simulator toolkit as part of the WISP (What If Scenario Portal) Google Maps web interface (see www.extreme-weather-impacts.net), developed in collaboration with Dr Stephen Hallett and colleagues at the University of Cranfield. This prototype web-portal maps likely current and future extreme weather events and their impacts in order to develop and support improved local community resilience. WISP provides an integrated socio-economic and health impact modelling tool, within the GIS framework, for facilitating and evaluating 'what-if' scenarios. WISP has an end-user-based design specification for a GIS web-mapping portal for mapping extreme weather events and impacts. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2012 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The development of the toolkit has helped provide a template for integrated cross-cutting effects of climate change. The toolkit has underpinned requests for evidence from various departments and organisations on the risks associated with climate change. E.g. • Invited to provide expert advice on hedonic estimation of the socio-economic impact of energy ratings by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (October 2011) • Also invited to submit evidence to the Royal Society of Edinburgh Inquiry on Climate Change (Sept 2010) • My work on the future impacts of flood risk on housing finance contributed to Defra's Climate Risk Assessment Review of Risks to the Mortgage Sector • Invited to present evidence (Nov 2010) to the Committee on Climate Change, an independent body established under the Climate Change Act • Invited to provide advice and evidence (April 2011) to the Institute for Volunteering Research as part of their Evidence Assessment on Environmental Volunteering • Member of Sustainability Advisory Group (Office of the Deputy Prime Minister 2005-2006) • Member of the Defra UK Economic Advisory Panel (since 2012) - my contribution has recently been evaluated by the Defra Chief Economist as "exemplary" (Defra Annual Review of EAP Membership) • Invited by the Chief Economists at Defra to present to the Defra Economic Advisory Panel the results of our award winning paper on the impact of flood risk on house prices (April 2013). • Invited to review Defra Climate Change Risk Assessment proposals for Defra Economic Advisory Panel Oct 2014 drawing on the CREW project findings. • Request for CREW research output for the "Cross Cutting Issues" section of the Defra Climate Change Risk Assessment (Roger Street, Dec 2015). |
| URL | http://www.extreme-weather-impacts.net |
| Title | First spatial econometric model of the impact of flood risk (as opposed to particular flood events) on the location of employment |
| Description | The impact of ?ood-risk on local employment has been almost entirely neglected in the empirical urban economics literature. This omission is particularly anomalous in the context of climate change. We extend the literature in four ways. First, we argue that competition for land between ?rms and households will generate an endogenous role for house prices, which we estimate using a generalised method of moments two-stage least squares spatial econometric model. Second, we model interaction effects between agglomeration and ?ood-risk using a gravity-based agglomeration measure. Third, we utilise a high-resolution ?ood-risk measure which incorporates both ?ood frequency and severity. Fourth, we use a high-resolution measure of employment to capture local effects. We ?nd that agglomeration economies have a signi?cant mitigating effect on ?ood-risk. This is potentially important because it suggests that ?oodrisk may have a more deleterious effect on employment in areas where economic agglomeration is weak. Policy-makers, insurers and planners cannot, therefore, assume a uniform effect of future changes to ?ood-risk as a result of climate change, and this needs to be taken into account when estimating the costs and bene?ts of interventions to reduce or underwrite ?ood-risk at particular locations. Our model offers a robust methodological basis for such estimation. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2013 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Helped provide methodological solutions to modelling the impact of flood risk on employment. |
| Description | Public Event held in Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | One day event in Westminster with attendees drawn from government departments, the insurance sector and the voluntary sector. The event involved interactive dialogue with participants and non-technical presentations of our work |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012 |