The Social Complexity of Immigration and Diversity

Ours has been dubbed the 'age of migration'. Immigration is a major political issue, with increasing media coverage, rising anti-immigration sentiment and the rise of anti-immigration political parties. The issue of migration sits centrally within the wider debate about ethnic and religious diversity and its effects on social cohesion. We are still, though, a long way from understanding these issues and their potential consequences. They seem to rest on beliefs about national identity and ethnicity, but cannot be divorced from the effects of social class, education, economic competition and inequality, as well as the influences of geographical and social segregation, social structures and institutions.This project will integrate the two very different disciplines, social science and complexity science, in order to gain new understanding of these complex, social issues. It will do this by building a series of computer simulation models of these social processes. One could think these as Serious Sims programmes that track the social interactions between many individuals. Such simulations allow 'what if' experiments to be performed so that a deeper understanding of the possible outcomes for the society as a whole can be established based on the interactions of many individuals. A difficulty with the computer simulation of complex systems is that if they are made realistic (in the sense of how people actually behave) it becomes very complex, which makes the simulation hard to understand, whilst if they are made simple enough to understand they can be too abstract to mean anything useful in terms of real people. This project aims to get around this by making chains of related models, starting with a complex, 'descriptive' model and then simplifying in stages, so that each simulation is a model of the one below it. The simpler models help us understand what is going on in the more complex ones. The more complex models reveal in what ways the simpler ones are accurate as well as the ways they over-simplify. In this way this project will combine the relevance of social science with the rigour of the hard sciences, but at the cost of having to build, check and maintain whole chains of models.Building on an established collaboration between social and complexity scientists in Manchester, this project will integrate the two disciplines to produce new insights, techniques and approaches for policy makers and their advisors. However this will require both the complexity and social scientists to develop new techniques. The complexity scientists will develop new families of computer models that capture several aspects of society in one simulation, including: how the membership of different groups, origins, classes, etc. are signalled by people (e.g. the way they dress, or their attitudes); the advantages and disadvantages of belonging to several different social groups at the same time; how different but parallel social networks might relate to each other; and how the views of people on specific issues might change in response to their friends, wider group and even politicians. The social scientists will develop ways of relating these kinds of models to the rich sources of social data that are available, and will collect additional social data where these sources prove inadequate. They will also ensure that the modelling results are interpreted meaningfully and usefully, in particular in ensuring that they are not over-interpreted. By bringing together the social science evidence, the layers of simulation models and the combined expertise of the researchers this project aims to make real progress in understanding the complex, important yet sensitive issues surrounding the processes that underlie the effects of immigration and diversity on social cohesion and integration. From the beginning it will involve policy experts and decision makers to help guide the project and ensure its relevance.

This research programme will have impact in two areas. First, there will be an impact of the novel tools and methods for more established users of complexity science. Second, there is the impact of new insights into the social consequences of immigration and diversity. Most of the non-academic impact will be in these latter, policy-relevant areas. The TPG has a track record of advising on the application of complexity techniques to real-world issues, for example in ecological applications such as fisheries management and biodiversity. The CPM has applied agent-based simulation to domestic water usage and supply, influencing projects in Spain and Greece where this is now used to assess the possible impact of new developments. Its work on modelling a specific community in South Africa has had an impact on the understanding of managing patients with HIV/AIDS. These are examples of where we have alerted policy advisors to the potential power and utility of simulation and other complexity analyses for the explication of otherwise intractable issues. On the policy side, our ultimate aim is for SCID to ameliorate the economic and quality of life penalties that confront immigrant and minority groups, and to enhance the social cohesion and resilience of the wider population. How to improve social cohesion has been one of the major challenges to governments in industrial democracies. In the U.K. this has been a central feature of the policy agenda under the current government. We aim to achieve these goals via engagement with local and national government and their policy advisors. The ISC has an excellent track record of publicising its research in government and policy circles, for example with the National Employment Panel, the Cabinet Office and the Department of Communities and Local Government. ISC members also conduct research for government bodies including the Department of Work and Pensions, the Office for National Statistics and the Electoral Commission. We have good relations with these and other relevant bodies such as Equality and Human Rights Commission which we will draw upon. As well as national bodies the research will be of value to local government and community organisations. The ISC has links with local community networks, such as the Manchester Council for Community Relations, and our work with Manchester Beacons for Public Engagement will help provide the widest possible audience for our work and findings (www.rcuk.ac.uk/sis/beacons.htm). The ability of SCID to influence policy debate will be greatly enhanced by the ISC's close collaboration with Harvard University's Saguaro Seminar and its director Robert Putnam. This group is one of the world's leading influences on policy in the area of social capital and community building, and has been a major influence on politicians both sides of the Atlantic. SCID will use various methods to ensure our research reaches the relevant audiences. We will issue press releases as significant results emerge. ISC in particular has established good links with journalists working in the national media (e.g. the Guardian newspaper), and have a good track record in generating media interest. For example, a recent press release generated several national newspaper stories and a BBC radio 4 Today programme interview (see www.ageofobamabook.com). We will distribute an end of programme executive report to policymakers, which will have added impact because of the involvement of advisors from highly influential bodies such as the Equality and Human Rights Commission in SCID. Interim and final project reports will be hosted on project websites hosted by the collaborating universities. We will host an end of programme open meeting to present our findings to interested parties from the general public, local and national government, policy bodies and elsewhere. Presentations will be made non-technical and intelligible to an informed lay audience.