PREDEX - Predictability of Extreme Weather Events

This collaborative interdisciplinary project will deliver and apply new mathematical complexity methods for quantifying the predictability of extreme events in complex dynamical systems. Our new tools will specifically help three European Weather Services improve their capability to forecast extreme weather events (e.g. catastrophic windstorms) - a rapidly emerging real world challenge expected due to anthropogenic climate change. The questions we address are: 1) What are the deterministic time limits of predictability for extreme weather events?2) How can we use emergent dynamical patterns to enhance predictability of extreme weather events?3) What is the role of spatial scale interactions in the physical processes leading to extreme weather? Our approach is based on properties of the atmospheric system which are dynamical (evolve in time, with relevant timescales ranging from hours to years) and emergent (arise from the nonlinear interaction of physical processes having different spatiotemporal scales). The project is strongly grounded on mathematical and physical sciences and is designed around collaboration with meteorology and weather forecasting operational services. The project investigators provide a unique combination of world-leading expertise from different disciplines: atmospheric and climate sciences, the mathematical theory of dynamical systems, the statistical theory of extreme events. Knowledge exchange will be built on strong existing working relationships with three European National Weather Services: the Met Office, the Met \'Eireann and the KNMI. Members of these Services will be involved in steering the project towards real-world applications and monitoring the achievements.

This project will develop new mathematical tools urgently needed for the better prediction of the more severe weather events. There is growing interest in the probabilistic forecasting of hazardous meteorological events. Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including catastrophic windstorms (see e.g. the 4th assessment report of the IPCC, 2007). Hence, improved forecasting of such extreme events is a pressing challenge for National Weather Services. This project will deliver proof-of-concept methodologies for that purpose. Involvement of the three National Weather Services will be crucial to focus the project on techniques which can then be further developed and implemented in operational setting, such as the MOGREPS ensemble prediction system of the Met Office. The techniques developed in this project will be applicable to more general nonlinear deterministic systems, including models from economy. Therefore, the potential domain of exploitability is broad, including all those cases in which deterministic models are used to produce forecasts of extreme events. The main beneficiaries of this project are the three National Weather Services involved in this project. They will benefit from this research by obtaining improved methodologies to be used for producing probabilistic forecasts of severe weather events. The benefits consist therefore of: * shaping and enhancing the effectiveness of the public service provided by these Weather Services; * contributing toward environmental sustainability, protection and impact, and * enhancing the efficiency, performance and sustainability of businesses/organisations including public services through better prediction of hazardous events such as windstorms; Other benefits include training skilled researchers for non-academic professions, such as jobs in National Weather Services, but also in commercial companies operating in weather risk (e.g. providing risk mitigation and management procedures for insurance and reinsurance companies) and prediction (e.g. delivering tailored weather forecasts for the offshore oil industry and the wind energy sector).