Extracting Leading Indicators from Transport Data Monitoring Programs using Human Factors Methods
Lead Research Organisation:
Heriot-Watt University
Department Name: Sch of the Built Environment
Abstract
Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) is the process by which data from on-board recorders (or so-called 'black boxes') is subject to regular and systematic analysis, not just after emergencies but after every flight. This is performed so that subtle trends which arise as pre-cursors to more serious incidents can be detected in advance and used to proactively manage risk. The same technique is also used as a way of meeting environmental and economic goals through improved operational efficiency, fuel consumption and maintenance.
FDM is relevant to the railway industry because since 2005 all trains now have to carry similar on-board recorders. The primary motivation is to provide accident investigators with an invaluable diagnostic tool, but like the aviation sector, because accidents are comparatively rare a far greater quantity of data is collected on normal, routine, non-accident journeys. As a result, recorder data in the rail industry represents a significantly underused resource.
The proposed research relates to a class of problem which occurs firmly at the human/system interface and which is shared by both the aviation and rail sectors. Both domains experience problems, for example, Signals Passed At Danger (or SPADs) and Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT), where several safety systems are defeated by human operators and otherwise fully functional trains or aircraft are placed in highly unsafe conditions. Problems such as these fall within the purview of Human Factors. On-board recorder data, be it from the rail or aviation sectors, represents a novel source of input for established human factors methodologies targeted at addressing them.
The primary goal of the research, therefore, will be to couple recorder data to human factors methods in a way not previously attempted. The outcome will be 'leading indicators' of problems which, so far, have proven resistant to conventional safety interventions. Related to this are leading indicators, or metrics, that could help to inform ongoing research into operational efficiency, 'eco-driving', and potentially cost-saving insights into future maintenance practices. These opportunities can be systematically examined with reference both to human factors methods and to the mature FDM processes that currently exist in the aviation industry.
The project is set against, and motivated by, a wider backdrop of European rail interoperability, a desire to maximise the environmental benefits of rail travel and the UK's position as a world leader in FDM processes. Whilst the research has at its core an innovative programme of theoretical advance, it is also coupled to several near-term applications. Firstly, the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) seek to inform (and be informed of) best practice in other transport domains and the proposed project aims to provide a conduit for such knowledge. Secondly, both the CAA and the Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC) are actively seeking leading indicators of safety related problems, particularly those which occur at the human/system interface. The project will map important theoretical developments in human factors methods to these real-world applications. Third, the proposed research is directly relevant to current industry projects managed by the Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB), including several relating to safety management systems, eco-driving and route knowledge.
In summary, the proposed research represents a highly innovative approach to understanding and diagnosing issues which occur at the boundary of humans and transport systems. It is also an example of research with high economic and societal impacts, and an example of research application with great potential to develop further work and collaborations with industry partners.
FDM is relevant to the railway industry because since 2005 all trains now have to carry similar on-board recorders. The primary motivation is to provide accident investigators with an invaluable diagnostic tool, but like the aviation sector, because accidents are comparatively rare a far greater quantity of data is collected on normal, routine, non-accident journeys. As a result, recorder data in the rail industry represents a significantly underused resource.
The proposed research relates to a class of problem which occurs firmly at the human/system interface and which is shared by both the aviation and rail sectors. Both domains experience problems, for example, Signals Passed At Danger (or SPADs) and Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT), where several safety systems are defeated by human operators and otherwise fully functional trains or aircraft are placed in highly unsafe conditions. Problems such as these fall within the purview of Human Factors. On-board recorder data, be it from the rail or aviation sectors, represents a novel source of input for established human factors methodologies targeted at addressing them.
The primary goal of the research, therefore, will be to couple recorder data to human factors methods in a way not previously attempted. The outcome will be 'leading indicators' of problems which, so far, have proven resistant to conventional safety interventions. Related to this are leading indicators, or metrics, that could help to inform ongoing research into operational efficiency, 'eco-driving', and potentially cost-saving insights into future maintenance practices. These opportunities can be systematically examined with reference both to human factors methods and to the mature FDM processes that currently exist in the aviation industry.
The project is set against, and motivated by, a wider backdrop of European rail interoperability, a desire to maximise the environmental benefits of rail travel and the UK's position as a world leader in FDM processes. Whilst the research has at its core an innovative programme of theoretical advance, it is also coupled to several near-term applications. Firstly, the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) seek to inform (and be informed of) best practice in other transport domains and the proposed project aims to provide a conduit for such knowledge. Secondly, both the CAA and the Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC) are actively seeking leading indicators of safety related problems, particularly those which occur at the human/system interface. The project will map important theoretical developments in human factors methods to these real-world applications. Third, the proposed research is directly relevant to current industry projects managed by the Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB), including several relating to safety management systems, eco-driving and route knowledge.
In summary, the proposed research represents a highly innovative approach to understanding and diagnosing issues which occur at the boundary of humans and transport systems. It is also an example of research with high economic and societal impacts, and an example of research application with great potential to develop further work and collaborations with industry partners.
Planned Impact
WHO WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS RESEARCH?
Four direct beneficiaries of the research have been identified and will be providing support to the project:
1. The Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC).
2. The Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB).
3. The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).
4. Aerobytes Ltd (a UK Flight Data Management Company who provide a range of FDM services to the aviation sector).
Four further indirect beneficiaries have also been identified:
1. The Human Factors Group at Network Rail Ltd.
2. The Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB)
3. The UK Air Accident Investigation Branch (AAIB).
4. The Human Factors Unit at National Air Traffic Services (NATS).
Wider beneficiaries have been identified as:
1. UK rail passengers (in terms of improved comfort and safety)
2. UK train operators (in terms of improved safety performance and favourable actuarial impacts on insurance against operational risks)
3. UK economy and society (by reducing the liklihood and cost of accidents and maintaining a leading position in FDM and transport safety)
HOW WILL THEY BENEFIT FROM THIS RESEARCH?
Key benefits to flow from the proposed research are both economic (i.e. potential cost saving strategies relating to operational efficiencies and safety) and health related (i.e. improved diagnosis of potential problems at the human/system interface). All participating stakeholders will benefit from cross-industry/disciplinary insights and best-practice resulting from the novel use of human factors techniques and recorder data. Specifically, ATOC's Safety and Operational Standards Forums will directly benefit from research into leading indicators of human performance problems. The CAA's Safety Regulation Group will benefit from state of the art insight into human factors methods and their relation to mature FDM processes, as well as insight into an alternative transport domain. RSSB (and the rail industry at large) will benefit from best practice arising from the aviation industry as well as insights relevant to the following projects: T852 - The application of leading and lagging indicators to the rail industry, T847 - Safety management system guidance and good practice and T839 - Eco-driving.
WHAT WILL BE DONE TO ENSURE BENEFIT?
One of the goals of the proposed research is for it to serve as a conduit for knowledge to flow between industries and disciplines. A number of explicit activities are planned to service this objective. Firstly, RSSB have agreed to host regular stakeholder forums at their London headquarters at which RSSB, ATOC, Aerobytes Ltd. and the CAA can have the opportunity to guide the research towards industrially relevant goals and facilitate early identification of future exploitation routes. Secondly, an explicit communications plan will be put in place (managed by the PI) to identify further beneficiaries and release project outputs to them as appropriate. In addition, a project website/portal will be hosted by Heriot-Watt University at which project details and outputs can be viewed. Third, resource will be provided to work closely with Aerobytes Ltd. in order to develop a proof of concept demonstrator. This will provide a simple yet powerful illustration of the mappings between theoretical/methodological knowledge flowing from the academic sector, and the practical applications of that knowledge within the rail and aviation sectors.
Four direct beneficiaries of the research have been identified and will be providing support to the project:
1. The Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC).
2. The Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB).
3. The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).
4. Aerobytes Ltd (a UK Flight Data Management Company who provide a range of FDM services to the aviation sector).
Four further indirect beneficiaries have also been identified:
1. The Human Factors Group at Network Rail Ltd.
2. The Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB)
3. The UK Air Accident Investigation Branch (AAIB).
4. The Human Factors Unit at National Air Traffic Services (NATS).
Wider beneficiaries have been identified as:
1. UK rail passengers (in terms of improved comfort and safety)
2. UK train operators (in terms of improved safety performance and favourable actuarial impacts on insurance against operational risks)
3. UK economy and society (by reducing the liklihood and cost of accidents and maintaining a leading position in FDM and transport safety)
HOW WILL THEY BENEFIT FROM THIS RESEARCH?
Key benefits to flow from the proposed research are both economic (i.e. potential cost saving strategies relating to operational efficiencies and safety) and health related (i.e. improved diagnosis of potential problems at the human/system interface). All participating stakeholders will benefit from cross-industry/disciplinary insights and best-practice resulting from the novel use of human factors techniques and recorder data. Specifically, ATOC's Safety and Operational Standards Forums will directly benefit from research into leading indicators of human performance problems. The CAA's Safety Regulation Group will benefit from state of the art insight into human factors methods and their relation to mature FDM processes, as well as insight into an alternative transport domain. RSSB (and the rail industry at large) will benefit from best practice arising from the aviation industry as well as insights relevant to the following projects: T852 - The application of leading and lagging indicators to the rail industry, T847 - Safety management system guidance and good practice and T839 - Eco-driving.
WHAT WILL BE DONE TO ENSURE BENEFIT?
One of the goals of the proposed research is for it to serve as a conduit for knowledge to flow between industries and disciplines. A number of explicit activities are planned to service this objective. Firstly, RSSB have agreed to host regular stakeholder forums at their London headquarters at which RSSB, ATOC, Aerobytes Ltd. and the CAA can have the opportunity to guide the research towards industrially relevant goals and facilitate early identification of future exploitation routes. Secondly, an explicit communications plan will be put in place (managed by the PI) to identify further beneficiaries and release project outputs to them as appropriate. In addition, a project website/portal will be hosted by Heriot-Watt University at which project details and outputs can be viewed. Third, resource will be provided to work closely with Aerobytes Ltd. in order to develop a proof of concept demonstrator. This will provide a simple yet powerful illustration of the mappings between theoretical/methodological knowledge flowing from the academic sector, and the practical applications of that knowledge within the rail and aviation sectors.
People |
ORCID iD |
| Guy Walker (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Dr Guy Walker
(2012)
From flight data monitoring to rail data monitoring
in Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics AHFE 2012
Dr Guy Walker
(2014)
Combining human factors methods with transport data recordings
in Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics AHFE 2014
Guy Walker (Author)
(2012)
EPSRC EP/I036222/1 Methods Mapping
Guy Walker (Author)
(2013)
EPSRC EP/I036222/1 Project Summary
Guy Walker (Author)
(2013)
EPSRC EP/I036222/1 Review of the Knowledge Base
Guy Walker (Author)
(2013)
EPSRC EP/I036222/1 Human Factors Leading Indicators
Lansdown TC
(2015)
Multiple driver distractions: a systemic transport problem.
in Accident; analysis and prevention
Salmon P
(2015)
Broken components versus broken systems: why it is systems not people that lose situation awareness
in Cognition, Technology & Work
Walker G
(2015)
Leading indicators of operational risk on the railway: A novel use for underutilised data recordings
in Safety Science
Walker G
(2016)
Big data and ergonomics methods: A new paradigm for tackling strategic transport safety risks.
in Applied ergonomics
| Description | Black-box data recorders have been used for many years in aviation and more recently in the rail sector. A peculiar side effect of improving safety trends in both transport sectors is that the ability to collect data is now out of proportion to the number of accidents where it would ever be used. Fortunately, the UK aviation industry leads the world in using black box data before accidents or serious safety concerns even occur. The prediction of emergent safety issues from data on normal operations is called Flight Data Monitoring. This project is about transferring this knowledge into the rail sector. It is also about making data monitoring approaches better at detecting a particularly troublesome class of accident that features in both industries' strategic safety plans. There are five key findings: The project highlights that the data collected from black box recorders in the rail industry is a significantly underused resource. The project demonstrates that the Flight Data Monitoring approach is compatible with data collected from train operations. It shows significant potential to improve and assure safety in the face of increasing operational intensity and risk exposure. The project shows that the class of accident, or near accident, which is prominent within rail and aviation strategic safety plans is comprised of distinct yet shared psychological features. The project has innovated six Human Factors Leading Indicators. These provide highly novel predictive insights into driver/pilot behaviour based on transport data recordings. In doing so they respond to industry strategic safety concerns and have been made compatible with existing Flight Data Monitoring approaches. The project opens up a highly impactful future research agenda. |
| Exploitation Route | The work leads directly to the continued development of a Rail Data Monitoring programme. Such a programme could be used across the industry and/or by individual train operating companies. The benefits of 'Flight' Data Monitoring are well established and the same benefits can be accrued in the rail sector. The Human Factors Leading Indicators are designed to be easily incorporated into existing Flight Data Monitoring software tools, facilitating their testing, validation and subsequent use on large scale transport datasets. Black box data recorders are becoming widespread in other transport domains and the same benefits/Human Factors insights apply. The work is being expanded into the Logistics/Road Freight sector under an EPSRC Grant entitled 'The Centre for Sustainable Road Freight'. The research has been presented to the Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) in the context of scoping a future research project. The research will be presented to the Association of Train Operating Companies' (ATOC) Operations Standards Forum in order to identify specific exploitation routes within the rail sector. The research has been presented to Flight Data Monitoring stakeholders at the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) to identify specific exploitation routes within the aviation sector. The results have been shared with Greater Anglia Trains who provided the current dataset and are seeking ways to make better use of it. The underpinning science has been exploited through academic channels such as international conferences and articles in the peer reviewed press. |
| Sectors | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Energy,Healthcare,Transport |
| Description | The findings have been presented widely to stakeholders and interested parties/bodies in the rail and aviation sector. At the time of writing the proof of concept funded by the EPSRC is likely to be extended into a larger industry funded project. This demonstrates the impacts in terms of improved safety performance, resilience and environmental footprint to be accrued through the novel use of black box data to drive behaviour change in pilots and train drivers. The project also coincided with some recent rail and aviation incidents which significantly raised the profile of the research. This included participation in a documentary broadcast by the Discovery Channel in which the key issues addressed by the research were presented. The results of this work also fed into written evidence provided to the Canadian Standing Senate Committee on Transportation, thus providing a policy impact around the use of on-train data and voice recorders. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2011 |
| Sector | Healthcare,Transport |
| Impact Types | Societal,Economic |
| Description | Written Evidence to the Canadian Government Standing Senate Committee on Transport and Communication |
| Geographic Reach | North America |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Impact | Bill C-49 is an Act to amend the Canada Transportation Act. I was invited to submit formal written evidence to the Standing Senate Committee on the measures proposed for the installation of locomotive voice and video recorders and the use of data obtained therein. This is an important legislative development which will see greater use of mandated voice and video data in accident investigation. The provisions contained in Bill C-49 are explicitly around safety and driving future improvements in survival. My research undertaken for EPSRC EP/IO36222/1 was identified by the Canadian Government from published works. My contribution centred on raising the Committee's awareness on the underlying Human Factors issues in railway safety, and the recommendations I made stemmed directly from this EPSRC project which was prominently acknowledged. |
| URL | https://www.sencanada.ca/en/committees/trcm/Briefs/42-1?pageSize=50 |
| Description | The Centre for Sustainable Road Freight |
| Amount | £250,000 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | EP/K00915X/1 |
| Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 01/2013 |
| End | 01/2018 |
| Description | Article for Rail Professional Magazine |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Following the original media release, Rail Professional Magazine, a non-academic publication aimed at the rail industry at large, requested a 1500 word article on the research. I was subsequently asked to provide a book review on rail human factors, which was another opportunity to describe my field of research to a general audience. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
| Description | Article in the Guardian newspaper |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | A press release of the research findings coincided with the 2013 Spanish Santiago train crash. A lot of public interest lay in the explanations for 'human factors' accidents such as these and the role of black box recorders: both key features of the research. I was subsequently asked to appear on a Discovery Channel documentary to speak further about the research project. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
| URL | http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/jul/25/railway-accidents-human-error-warning-systems |
| Description | Discovery Channel Documentary |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Following the press-release describing the project, the PI was contacted by the Discovery Channel to contribute to a forthcoming documentary on the Spanish Rail Accident and railway safety more generally. A recorded interview was performed dealing with all aspects of the project, and was incorporated into a programme featuring numerous other railway experts from around the world. The documentary was aired in the UK in October 2013 and subsequently aired on international carriers. A significant rise in profile for the specific research performed and the topic of human factors more generally. Numerous requests for further information and invitations to speak were received. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
| URL | http://www.discoveryuk.com/the-loop/spain-worst-rail-disaster/ |
| Description | Interview given to BBC Radio 4 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Significant raising of profile. The issue was topical in that there were other stories in the media at the time concerning rail and aviation safety, and this interview was an opportunity to shift thinking. Further media requests were received and acted upon. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
| Description | Invited Keynote Speaker at Transport Safety Victoria |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Invited keynote speaker at Transport Safety Victoria, Australia. This is a government body responsible for rail, road and maritime regulation. The event comprised a large lecture on the theme of Human Factors in Transport Safety wherein the work of the project was presented to government and industry stakeholders. Please note that the costs of international travel were met by various host institutions in this case and not the grant awarding body. The Head of Human Factors at the host organisation (Transport Safety Victoria) is now undertaking a PhD in a strongly related area under my supervision. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
| Description | Invited Keynote Speaker at University of the Sunshine Coast Accident Research Centre (USCAR) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Invited keynote speaker for specially arranged lecture at which the project was presented to an audience of academics and industry stakeholders. * Please note that the costs of international travel were in this case met by the host institution(s) and not by the grant awarding body. The talk was well received with numerous requests for futher information and new networks formed. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
| Description | Invited Keynote Speaker at an Institution of Engineering and Technology Seminar |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | I was invited by the IET to speak at a railway safety assurance seminar in London. The talk was a counterpoint to the largely engineering dominated discussions and generated lively debate and requests for futher information. Requests for further information, new contacts in diverse professional arenas, follow on requests for further talks. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
| URL | http://conferences.theiet.org/rail-safety/about/index.cfm |
| Description | Invited Talk (Nambour General Hospital / Queensland Health District) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The opportunities to translate the work of this grant into a new domain (healthcare) was presented to over 60 delegates at Nambour General Hospital and the wider Queensland Health District on Friday 24th March 2017. Many attendees dialled in from remote locations and the talk was so popular that there were not enough remote connections to go around. Numerous questions and discussions followed the talk, including follow up contacts. The host and a colleague seconded to the organisation on another research project reported intense interest and debate on the topic. In particular, how the insights presented could enable better use to be made of existing patient data. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Presentation of Findings to Railway Stakeholders |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The outcomes of the project were presented to the Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB), the Association of Train Oprating Companies (ATOC) and Greater Anglia trains. The meeting was orientated around practical avenues for the research and funding for future work. The findings link to several important strands of overall rail research strategy. The research fitted with current and emerging strategic themes and its importance 'sold'. Further discussions and meetings were held to look at opportunities for follow on funding. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
| Description | Press Release issued by Heriot-Watt University and Pagoda PR |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | A media release was prepared by Heriot-Watt University and their PR company Pagoda, explaining the research in accessible terms for a public audience. The press release was picked up by numerous print and broadcast providers (see seperate entries). It also appeared in internal University media and publications. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
| Description | Project Briefing at the UK Civil Aviation Authority |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The outcomes of the research project were presented to key stakeholders within the Civil Aviation Authority. These included senior Flight Data Monitoring, Safety Management and Human Factors experts. The CAA have since become stakeholders in other proposed research. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
| Description | Project Briefing at the UK Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | A project briefing was requested by the Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) and delivered at their London Headquarters. The request for a project briefing was made based on growing interest in this novel research agenda. A strong desire was expressed to 'build upon' the current work. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012 |