MOT: Motoring and car Ownership Trends in the UK

Efforts to reduce the emissions from car travel have been hampered by a lack of specific information on car ownership and use. In 2010, the Department for Transport released a dataset containing annual MOT test records for cars from 2005 onwards, with regular updates promised. By providing relatively comprehensive information about British car ownership and use, this dataset provides a key opportunity to address a number of issues in transport and energy debates. For the first time precise links can be made between car use and car type, and changes in use over space and time can be examined on a relatively complete basis. When combined with a wealth of other existing data sets (not least the new information from the 2011 Census), a range of new and important insights should emerge.

Having already worked together as a project team to scope the use of this data in a small EPSRC-funded study in 2011, we now propose to use it as a platform upon which to develop a set of interlinked modelling and analysis tasks using multiple sources of vehicle-specific and area-based data.

A set of interdependent workpackages will span three years to investigate spatial and temporal differences in car ownership and use, the determinants of those differences, and how levels may change over time and in response to various policy measures. The relationships between car ownership, car use, fuel use and vehicle emissions, and the demographic, economic, infrastructural and socio-cultural factors influencing these will be tested mathematically using spatial statistics, regression modelling and scenario analyses. Linkages will also be made with spatial patterns of domestic gas and electricity usage in order to understand relationships within and between these end-user energy demands.

The new analysis capability will be tested through case study evaluation of local transport policies. By enabling car ownership and use to be examined at relatively fine spatial and temporal scales, and via techniques to identify areas sharing important 'background' characteristics, it should be possible to answer key questions for sustainable transport policies such as, what difference to car ownership and use have particular policies achieved (compared with areas where these policies were not in place)? It will also be able to calculate figures for fuel use and emissions to contribute to the development of policies specifically targeted at the most energy intensive or polluting drivers or localities. We will also be able to link energy use from cars, with domestic energy usage through household electricity and gas. This will allow us to build up a much better picture of energy and carbon footprints across the country. When linked to patterns of income, multiple deprivation and other socio-economic factors, there will be insights for the design of much more effective climate and energy policies, and to ensure that the burden of these is borne equitably.

The project will be supported by an Applied Statistics Expert Panel, and includes provision for workshops with key stakeholders to help shape the work. The project will also help develop a specification for a possible web-based tool to enable a wide community of users to undertake their own analysis on these sorts of issues, using the data and tools that we develop.

In order to achieve our goals, we will develop methods to overcome the challenges of merging a range of important but disparate datasets, based on varying spatial, temporal and other characteristics, and subject to varying issues of data protection and sensitivity. Our scoping study demonstrated that there are very significant technical challenges to be overcome in working with datasets of this size and nature, and a wide range of disciplines may be able to learn from this work. The analysis frameworks and the new scientific understanding delivered will be the important legacies of this project.

Around a quarter of UK greenhouse gas emissions (excluding international aviation and shipping) result from transport. Much of this is due to road transport, and from car use in particular.

The project will design new frameworks for understanding car ownership and usage and its related energy use and emissions. This will allow the development of more effective policies for reducing the impacts of car use, particularly in relation to greenhouse gases, but also wider impacts relating to traffic volumes and their emissions, including congestion and public health effects.

The project has relevance to policy at a range of levels and departments, not least to the Department for Transport (DfT) and Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) who are both project partners. The project will provide a greater understanding of how car ownership and use currently varies across the country, and, for the first time, will provide a way of making the links between types of vehicle (including fuel) and how far they are driven. By also considering patterns and rates of uptake of new vehicles in the fleet, we will also be able to help map out future scenarios in order to understand the permeation of lower emission vehicles, and future needs for new infrastructure such as gas supplies and electric charging points. These outcomes could help private sector infrastructure providers and utility companies cater for future use.

At a lower level, local authorities in the UK are involved in managing transport with regard to a range of concerns, including congestion, air pollution and carbon emissions. The project will develop and test methods to use the MOT data combined with other data as a means for assessing the impacts of local transport schemes, such as those currently being implemented under the Local Sustainable Transport Fund. Such methods could bring efficiencies to data analysis and provide significant advantages over conventional evaluation methods given the comprehensive and ongoing nature of the MOT data collection. For instance, it could provide relatively straightforward opportunities to obtain data from potential 'control' areas against which to benchmark the impact of local transport interventions.

In addition to aiding the practical development and assessment of national and local policies around transport and energy, the spatial scale of the data will allow an assessment of how patterns of car ownership and use vary according to social and economic factors such as income, employment and other indicators of deprivation. By linking with patterns of domestic energy use, and exposure to air pollution, this will allow a wide range of energy and transport policies to be examined in the context of social and environmental justice issues.
Internationally, the findings and techniques developed in this project will help the UK to maintain its leadership role in establishing credible ways to achieve the significant cuts that are needed in greenhouse gas emissions over the next 40 years and beyond. To maintain this leadership, any serious development of emissions pathways out to 2050 requires substantially improved knowledge not just of how different vehicle technologies are being adopted, but how they are being used on the road.