Reducing heat demand in UK cities: Using complexity science to enable effective decision-making

Almost half (46%) of the final energy consumed in the UK is used to provide heat; this demand is currently largely met through burning fossil fuels. As a result, over a third of the UK's greenhouse gas emissions are directly attributable to heat-related activities. This brings the need to balance key national objectives, including reducing carbon emissions and providing a secure and affordable supply of heat to UK homes and businesses (the "energy trilemma"). Addressing these challenges will require new ways of reducing end-use heat demand and promoting energy efficiency, and the integration of technologies into existing city infrastructure that decarbonise heating and cooling or provide a means of storing heat. The reduction of heat demand is therefore closely linked both to alternative technologies and to business and governance models. As a result, the interactions between social and technical elements of the system need to be more thoroughly understood. Heat demand reduction that works with rather than against people and organisations, enabling heat technologies to be designed and deployed effectively and with maximum impact, is vital if the UK is to meet the 2050 target of an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions whilst providing affordable warmth to those already in fuel poverty or likely to become so as energy prices rise.

This fellowship project aims to develop tools that will enable local authorities and other key city stakeholders to make effective decisions for the reduction of heat demand. The approach to achieving a significant reduction in heat demand needs to be twofold: (1) efficient delivery of heat services (as an alternative to the point-of-use burning of gas in boilers) through district heat networks linked to low-carbon technologies such as combined heat and power (CHP) or energy from waste, and (2) an increased uptake of energy-efficient and low-carbon heating technologies such as insulation, heat pumps and solar thermal in the domestic sector. Neither of these has the potential to deliver a low-carbon future in isolation; instead, both must work in concert. The proposed research will consider how (1) and (2) interact.

The intention is that these tools will be used to analyse potential end-use heat demand reduction strategies and specific interventions that could be implemented by the public and/or private sector in the city energy system. Potential interventions can encompass different approaches by local and central government and can range from the primarily technological, e.g. use of low-carbon heat technologies in council-owned estates, to the primarily policy-based, e.g. supplementary planning guidance on connections to heat networks.

Novel approaches to modelling complex systems will be used that will deliver a better understanding of how the different aspects of the city-level heat system are linked. The whole system encompasses technologies, institutional and governance arrangements, the environment, the behaviours of individuals, and business models. Each aspect will be influenced by the others and so, in order to identify successful actions a local authority may take, the emergent behaviour of the whole system must be explored.

The research will be conducted at the Centre for Integrated Energy Research at the University of Leeds, which provides an interdisciplinary environment. As a result the research will include input from academics working in engineering, energy policy and modelling. In-depth engagement will also be undertaken with practitioners from project partners in local government and industry and stakeholders across the heat sector.

Beneficiaries of the research will be those organisations with an interest in city-level heat systems that wish to address one or all of the aspects of the "energy trilemma". These organisations include:
* local and central government organisations (including local authorities and their associated delivery partners, local enterprise partnerships, central government offices, and government-funded agencies such as the Carbon Trust and Energy Saving Trust);
* engineering and consultancy businesses (that work with local authorities, developers and investors);
* industry, including firms manufacturing and installing heat technologies as well as large infrastructure developers;
* academia (across multiple disciplines, including end-use energy demand, heat energy systems, energy governance and policy and complexity science), and related research institutes (e.g. UK Energy Research Centre).
The majority of beneficiaries are likely to be UK-based, but some results will be transferable for a wider EU and international audience. Four project partners have already been secured: Leeds City Council, Arup (who have close links with Sheffield City Council), CO2Sense and DHC+. Contacts with other key stakeholders will be developed throughout the project.

This research proposal comes at a time when central and local government and industry are eager to understand the issues concerning the delivery of low-carbon heat in order to meet UK and EU carbon reduction targets. There is a host of government policies aimed at solving the energy trilemma of low-carbon, secure and affordable heat. This fellowship project supports the aims of national energy policies and strategies including the government's recent heat strategy, a national heat map and the renewable heat incentive. In the domestic sector in particular, the UK government's flagship Green Deal policy and the Community Low Carbon Heating scheme are aimed at retrofitting heat technologies in the domestic sector. The role for local authorities and other city-level actors will be critical in encouraging uptake of these initiatives and in deploying urban district heating systems. In meeting the legally-binding target of reducing the UK's carbon emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050, the transition to low-carbon heating for domestic and commercial properties will be critical. Many UK local authorities have strategies to deliver affordable warmth to residents in their areas and to support the UK government's target that by 2016 no person shall live in fuel poverty. Enabling uptake of energy-efficient heating technologies and using heat networks to provide affordable warmth play an important part in meeting these objectives. In addition, a strategic approach to energy planning by local authorities can bring many benefits, including increased private investment and development and job creation in urban areas. This research project will deliver tools to enable strategic decision-making for the reduction of heat at the city-level in support of national objectives.

Through secondment activities in both local government and a consultancy organisation, the benefits of using complexity science methods to understand energy systems and the interplay between technologies, policy and organisational and individual behaviours will be disseminated. The models developed can be used by organisations directly to enable effective decision-making in support of a city-level reduction in heat demand.