Modelling the Political, Societal and Regulatory Implementation of the UK Energy System Decarbonisation Transition

Conventional equilibrium and optimisation energy systems modelling approaches have been extensively used over the last two decades to identify the timing and scale for the deployment of low, zero or even negative carbon energy technologies as the key element of deep decarbonisation pathways to stay within a 2C temperature target by 2100.
However, these approaches suffer from a set of major simplifications. First, the lack of more detailed analysis on the economic trade-offs of large scale decarbonisation (beyond a single optimal decision maker); second, a clear link to the political dynamics (including the institutional and regulatory requirements) of such a transition; and third, an understanding of the societal acceptability, drivers and learning of large-scale low carbon technology uptake.
To help fill these major omissions, the emerging field of socio-technical energy transitions (STET) is an innovative and exciting approach. The STET approach is characterised by multi-level governance, a range of economic, technological and social feedbacks, and by many decision makers.
Attempts to operationalise such a rich conceptual approach (for example via EPSRC's Realizing Transitions Pathways project) has taken an interdisciplinary and participatory stakeholder approach that brought together quantitative and qualitative contributions from research, policy, industry and wider society.
To make STET analysis relevant for the implementation of energy system trilemma goals, requires transparent, sophisticated and scalable modelling frameworks that are explicitly targeted to answer the actual questions that energy decision makers have.
Therefore this scoping proposal has two primary goals:
1. To apply formal STET modelling - on heterogeneous economic actors, necessary policy consistency, and societal acceptance - to large-scale low carbon technology deployment within an energy systems framework.
2. To embed this process within an interactive and bidirectional stakeholder engagement to ensure that STET modelling meets the requirements of diverse UK energy decision makers.
The main tool for this scoping study is the Behaviour, Lifestyles and Uncertainty Energy model (BLUE); a system dynamics model of the UK energy system that simulates energy use and emissions through time as an energy transition unfolds. The main stakeholder engagement will be a coordinated pair of expert workshops, allied to an iterative bidirectional project website to enable a decision theatre approach to STET model development and application.
This is an inherently interdisciplinary scoping project that will better define the 'real world' feasibility of large-scale decarbonisation technology from a range of economic, political, institutional, regulatory and societal perspectives. It will hence lay the groundwork for a full project of linking STET modelling with UK energy decision maker needs.

Comprehensive bi-directional interactions with the full range of UK (and international) energy systems expert stakeholders is a core goal of this scoping project.
We will provide a focused bridge between the wider energy systems academic community and the UK's energy modelling researchers. An (open access) journal paper will be produced on the conceptualisation of formalised energy systems STET modelling, with the placeholder for future papers from follow-up in-depth research. We will deposit in key repositories a novel set of layered data outputs characterising the economic, political and societal factors in long-term large-scale energy system decarbonisation. These innovative data sets represent a completely original resource on long-term transitional drivers and parameters for any future energy systems scenarios, giving new modellers a tractable set of parameters to continuing our STET analytical work on this vital topic.
In this project's iterative modelling process, the engagement - principally through our twin expert workshops - with a diverse and knowledgeable set of energy experts is critical. Leveraging longstanding and deep relationships - via wholeSEM, UKERC and the Transition Pathways projects -we will populate our workshops with the best energy systems experts from national and local governance; the Energy Systems Catapult and ETI, the energy regulator; principal industry players; nongovernmental organisations; consultants; and international organisations with expertise in energy systems analysis. We will utilise an active project website to ensure engagement between and after workshops with our core stakeholder group and the wider energy community. This will include a conceptualisation of the economic, political and societal parameters we are exploring under this call, a dedicated data section, and an interactive modelling outputs section for comment and critique.
One of the most important success criteria for the project will be the ability of policy and other decision-makers to understand, critique, deploy and exploit our modelling insights on large-scale energy decarbonisation. In addition to the routes to impact discussed above we will publish policy briefs to provide tailored information and support timely, evidence-based decision-making. These will be written in an accessible way and available from the project website, as well as emailed to relevant individuals, organisations, and networks. We will also deliver bespoke presentations designed to deepen the understanding of energy system decarbonisation drivers, and build upon existing advisory roles to BEIS, ETI, and the Energy Systems Catapult to inform key technical personnel and internal evidence-based reports.
Interacting with wider media, civil society organisations and students - will be facilitated by an active online presence, coordinated through our project website. Such public engagement will be heavily facilitated via electronic communication (based on the UKERC and wholeSEM successes in these methods), including the project website, social networking and a two-way blog function.
Finally our end of project report will codify and synthesize this scoping study's results on dedicated STET research and cementing relevant insights into a possible future major research effort.