GCRF_NF109: GCRFCV19@ukri.org African elections during the COVID-19 pandemic

Lead Research Organisation: University of Edinburgh
Department Name: Sch of Social and Political Science

Abstract

Elections involve increased risks of the spread of COVID-19, with the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) highlighting more than 40 stages where people assemble, or objects are transferred during the electoral cycle. Despite these risks, a number of elections have already taken place in Africa during the pandemic, including those in Mali, Guinea, and Burundi. Nine more elections are due to take place in Africa before the end of 2020, and there are 18 scheduled for 2021. Reducing the risks of increased transmission during these elections is paramount, particularly as the World Health Organisation (WHO) has recently declared that the pandemic is accelerating on the continent. By following three elections (in Tanzania, Ghana and the Central African Republic) from beginning to end, we will look closely at each stage of the electoral process and how the risks of COVID-19 transmission have been mitigated (if at all). We will also chart the extent to which holding elections has had a demonstrable effect on infection rates. Secondly, we aim to assess whether and how the pandemic affects political participation. We will evaluate whether the ability of any social (including gendered) groups or geographic populations to engage in the political process is reduced, either unintentionally or deliberately. These public health and governance foci will allow us to produce detailed, evidence-based, and context-specific recommendations that can be applied to upcoming African elections. The findings will also be valuable to all other low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that are due to hold elections.
 
Description Although several sets of recommendations for reducing the risks of COVID-19 transmission during elections were produced at the beginning of the pandemic, they were not context specific or based on evidence from African elections that took place during the crisis.

We 1) looked at elections in four African countries to discover what measures had been put in place to make elections safer, 2) we evaluated how well these measures had been implemented, and 3) we found out how political participation had been impacted by the pandemic.

We also created a dataset, 'Pre and post-election surveys in Ghana and Tanzania' that we have deposited with ReShare, the UK Data Service's online data repository. The other case study countries are Central African Republic and Kenya.

Our research has allowed us to offer LMICs and their partners with evidence-based, context-specific recommendations for reducing the spread of COVID-19 in African elections. We focus on 1) issues relating to the protocols themselves, 2) the compliance and enforcement of these protocols, and 3) voter education. We suggest improvements to the ways in which existing measures can be applied in practice, and we highlight the areas in which the risks of spreading COVID-19 have tended to be overlooked in the elections that we followed.

The project has also gone beyond its original aims, both in covering 1) a fourth case study country (Kenya), and 2) in offering evidence-based recommendations on holding elections during future pandemics and other emergencies.
Exploitation Route As above, our research has allowed us to provide low and middle-income countries (LMICs) and their partners with suggested improvements to the ways in which existing measures for reducing the spread of COVID-19 in African elections can be applied in practice.

Beyond these stated outputs, we also provide evidence-based recommendations for how countries can best plan for holding elections in the event of future pandemics and other emergencies. The policy paper is principally aimed at electoral management bodies (EMBs) and legislators at the country level, and external donors who fund democracy programmes in LMICs.

As the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stresses, 'COVID-19 will not be the final pandemic to challenge the world'. It is therefore imperative that planning occurs to ensure greater preparedness for the next outbreak, particularly as scientists have warned that pandemics are likely to be more frequent in the future as a result of the environmental damage caused by human activity. At a smaller scale, viral outbreaks that lead to health crises are also likely to become more common at the regional, national, and subnational levels. Beyond health crises, the COVID emergency has acted as a reminder of the need to prepare for other possible unexpected disruptions. Other emergencies may arise as a result of: natural disasters or extreme weather events; malicious foreign interference in sovereign democratic elections; terrorist threats; and the deliberate exploitation of future crises by authoritarian leaders to undermine democratic institutions and processes.

The policy paper is structured into two sections: the first contains measures that should be taken in advance of the next crisis, and the second contains recommendations for how to react after the next crisis begins. At this stage, the most important are those that should be addressed now - because they can be addressed now. These include: 1) Electoral laws should be updated to better cover all contingencies relating to pandemics and other emergencies; 2) Funding for elections that take place during health crises should be considered in advance; 3) A shift towards electronically-based voting systems may be deemed desirable in some countries; 4) Measures should be taken to reduce the number of voters who travel long distances to vote; 5) Arrangements should be made to ensure election observation can still occur.

1), 'Electoral laws should be updated to better cover all contingencies relating to pandemics and other emergencies', should be a priority. The policy paper discusses why it is important that countries update their relevant electoral laws, to ensure that sensible and transparent processes for responding to future crises are established in advance. This takes time, and so the work should begin now.
Sectors Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice

URL https://aecp.sps.ed.ac.uk/
 
Description Our local partners engaged in dissemination activities in the case study countries. As these activities were led by our African partners and drew upon pre-existing contacts, we are confident that they were sensitive enough to local conditions and organisational and societal cultures. It should be noted that our findings also have clear relevance outside these countries, as they are tailored towards all low and middle-income countries (LMICs) that hold elections. In order to reach the relevant stakeholders we created policy-orientated working documents that were written in the language and style that people working in the field of democracy are familiar with (indeed, we prioritized these over journal articles, which also have the disadvantage of a slow publication cycle). Using the help of the Westminster Foundation for Democracy (WFD), we ensured that these reached a wide range of relevant organiations including the electoral management bodies (EMBs) in LMICs. We also drew upon pre-existing networks to arrange a series of online dissemination meetings with leading organisations working on democracy and elections, such as the Carter Center, FCDO. While organizing these, we asked them to decide the format and content of the presentations to maximse the likelihood of good engagement. We also allowed for Q&A phases. All of the organisations we engaged expressed great interest in their findings and recommendations, particularly due to their good evidence base. We have further deepened these relationships in our work on a subsequent project. We also hosted two public events and presented our findings to the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group on Africa. As above, our policy paper on preparing elections for future pandemics and other health emergencies discusses why it is important that countries update their relevant electoral laws now. Now the project is complete - with delivery above and beyond the initial objectives - a follow-up initiative would be required to ensure that these important recommendations are acted upon.
First Year Of Impact 2021
Sector Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Description Training session for Central African Republic Researchers
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact Colleagues at University of Edinburgh and Harvard Humanitarian Institute ran a two-day research training session for researchers, based in Central African Republic, who are contributing to the project. Many of the skills that were taught are transferable, so the session will help enable future research in CAR.
 
Description Collaboration with Royal African Society (RAS) 
Organisation Royal African Society
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution 1) Project members presented research findings to the UK Parliament's All Party Parliamentary Group for Africa. 2) Project members presented research findings during a public seminar organised by RAS. 3) Macdonald contributed to the Royal African Society blog 'African Arguments'. 4) Macdonald participated in the Royal African Society's Prospects and Forecasts public event (2021). Further details of these activities can be found under the relevant sections of this form.
Collaborator Contribution 1) RAS organised a session of the UK Parliament's All Party Parliamentary Group for Africa for us to present our research findings. 2) RAS convened a public seminar for us to present our research findings. 3) RAS published a blog by Macdonald.
Impact As above. All these activities were based on interdisciplinary research.
Start Year 2020
 
Description Collaboration with Westminster Foundation for Democracy (WFD) 
Organisation Westminster Foundation for Democracy
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Macdonald and Molony produced the working paper 'Holding Elections during Future Pandemics and Other Emergencies: Evidence-Based Recommendations' (see publications).
Collaborator Contribution WFD published the recommendations and also disseminated them to key stakeholders in the international elections community (including electoral management bodies). They have also committed to involvement in ongoing engagement activities relating to future pandemic preparedness.
Impact The above mentioned working paper.
Start Year 2021
 
Description African Arguments Blog 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Edem Solormey and Gilfred Asiamah wrote a blog for African Arguments titled 'Running an election during a pandemic: Lessons from Ghana'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://africanarguments.org/2021/09/running-an-election-during-a-pandemic-lessons-from-ghana/
 
Description An online meeting with Westminster Foundation for Democracy about future pandemics 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Thomas Molony and Robert Macdonald met with the WFD again to dicuss future pandemics. During the meeting a plan for a working paper was developed.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Blog for Democracy in Africa 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A blog on preparing for future pandemics on the Democracy in African website
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL http://democracyinafrica.org/how-should-africa-hold-elections-during-the-pandemic/
 
Description Blog on making elections safe during pandemics 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A blog for Democracy in Africa, designed to promote our recommendations for holding elections safely during future elections.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL http://democracyinafrica.org/how-should-africa-hold-elections-during-the-pandemic/
 
Description COVID-19 and Elections Public Meeting, organised with the Royal African Society 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Along with the Royal African Society (RAS), we hosted a public event to discuss the project's findings and recommendations. RAS were able to invite some politicians and Electoral Commission members from countries with upcoming elections.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Interview to inform a FCDO/WFD strategy paper on the future of UK election observation activities and related election support 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact As an expert on election observation in Africa, I was interviewed to inform a strategy paper on the future of UK election observation activities and related election support. I was approached for the interview by Hannah Roberts (an independent consultant) and Toby James (University of East Anglia), who have been contracted to write the strategy paper for the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), through the Westminster Foundation for Democracy (WFD). Their strategy paper reviews projects undertaken to date and the activities of other organisations undertaking related activities, and then makes recommendations on how the UK may be able to add value considering work done by others. My hour-long discussion with the report authors drew directly on the recent data collection and analysis conducted in Zambia and The Gambia for the Local Perceptions and Media Representations of Election Observation in Africa project (and, to a lesser extent, on pertinent aspect of the African Elections during the COVID-19 Pandemic project). Roberts asked for a draft of a journal article authored by Macdonald and Molony, in which we detail perceptions of various categories of election observation initiatives both in the literature and from our recent findings in Zambia. I have opted to have my name listed as an interviewee in the appendix to the report, which is due to be published in 2022. (So far the activity has reached only the report authors, but I anticipate the influence being international as UK develops its post-Brexit policy on how it will contribute to international election observation.)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Meeting with ECOWAS Network of Electoral Commissions (ECONEC) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Molony and Macdonald met with ECOWAS Network of Electoral Commissions (ECONEC) Program Officer, who requested further information on the AECP project (and future involvement in the LMEO project). This has been supplied, and contacts shared with a view to further develop impact-focused engagement opportunities as the project proceeds.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Meeting with Representative from the British High Commission in Tanzania 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact We meet a political expert from the British High Commission in Tanzania. We briefed him on the major findings from our research in Tanzania. He shared some of his observations.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Meeting with the Tanzanian and Zanzibari Electoral Commissions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Victoria Lihiru presented the findings of our Tanzanian case study to the Electoral Commissions of both Tanzania and Zanzibar.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Meeting with the Tanzanian and Zanzibari Electoral Commissions and Political Parties 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Victoria Lihiru presented the project findings to the Tanzanian and Zanzibari electoral commisions for a second time. This time there were also representatives of the major political parties present.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description News article: Daily Maverick 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Project named and project findings mentioned in Daily Maverick article, 'President Edgar Lungu worked around Covid-19 rules to campaign ahead of Zambia poll': '.... Thomas Molony from the University of Edinburgh is running a project entitled "African Elections during the Covid-19 pandemic" (https://aecp.sps.ed.ac.uk/) looking at how the pandemic has affected outcomes. With reference to the 2016 turnout, he said: "If turnout is significantly below 56.45% this year, then there will be a number of reasons that can explain this, and Covid should be included as one of those reasons." Voter turnout worldwide has declined during the pandemic. "But in Africa a number of countries have seen an increase compared to the average turnout," he said. "Burundi and Togo are examples, along with Ghana, where there was an increase of more than 10 percent." Tanzania, the Central African Republic and Ghana have, however, seen lower turnouts.A variety of factors may influence voters' confidence in going to the polls during the pandemic, he added. "Firstly, elections that were scheduled early on in the pandemic tended to be postponed, but as the pandemic has progressed countries have had more confidence in holding elections."Visible Covid-19 safety measures at polling stations gave voters confidence they could avoid the virus when going out to vote. These regulations are, however, not always enforced. "In Zambia there are some suggestions that Covid-19 guidelines have not been strictly enforced across the political spectrum - to the detriment of an opposition challenging the considerable power of incumbency," said Molony.....'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020,2021
URL https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-08-14-president-edgar-lungu-worked-around-covid-19-rule...
 
Description Online Meeting with European External Action Service 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact We met with elections and regional experts from the EEAS (who, amonst other things, organise EU election observation). We briefed them on our Tanzania reseach. They gave some of their views. We also discussed our future project on election observation, which is due to start in May 2021.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Online Meeting with Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact We meet Africa experts from the FCDO. We informed them of the project details and they highlighted several areas about which they would specifically like to hear more information once the research was underway.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Online Meeting with Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office in South Africa 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact We presented our research findings to an audience invited by the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office in South Africa. It was attended by several diplomats and academics. They were particularly interested in the findings as there are upcoming local elections in South Africa. The UK Council General to South Africa offered to coordinate us further sharing our findings with South Africa's Electoral Commission.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Online Meeting with Westminster Foundation for Democracy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact We met with Westminster Foundation for Democracy. We had a broad discussion about upcoming research in which included an exchange of information on our case study countries and an exchange of ideas about which areas would be most fruitful to focus on with a view to further exchanges after the research phase is complete.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Online Meeting with Westminster Foundation for Democracy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Thomas Molony and Robert Macdonald had a follow-up meeting with WFD to discuss the project's findings and recommendations.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Online Meeting with the International Foundation for Electoral Systems 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Thomas Molony and Robert Macdonald presented the project's findings and recommendations to IFES.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Online meeting with the Carter Center 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact We had a meeting with elections experts from the Carter Center. We discussed our upcoming research and objectives. We exchanged information based on the specific countries that we are focusing on. We decided to collaborate on an public seminar. We also discussed an upcoming research project on election observation, which is due to begin in May 2021.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Online meeting with the Carter Center 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Thomas Molony and Robert Macdonald had a second meeting with the Carter Center to discuss the project's findings and recommendations.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Presentation to CSOs in Tanzania 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Third sector organisations
Results and Impact Victoria Lihiru presented the findings of the project to Tanzanian civil society organisations during a meeting convened buy the International Republican Institute.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Presentation to Election Observation Research Network (ELECTOR) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Molony presented the key findings of the AECP project to the Brussels-based meeting of 26 leading international researchers and policymakers on elections in LMICs. Key recommendations from the project are given in ELECTOR Brief 6, 'What we know (and don't know) about election observation in 2021', namely, on page 8: "in preparation for future pandemics and other emergencies, we need to adopt protocols for election-day voting, voter registration, referendums, by-elections, voter education, and observer missions. He [Molony] recommended: 1. the establishment of a ringfenced emergency budget support fund that countries could tap into during health crises; 2. more efforts to listen to local observers and citizens to better tailor future election support; 3. the introduction of measures to reduce the number of voters who travel long distances to vote; and, 4. arrangements to ensure election observation can still occur even in a time of crisis.

He also contributed to the discussion on electoral violence, drawing on some initial findings from the ongoing Local Perceptions and Media Representations of Election Observation in Africa project. Countering the suggestion that observers should call out electoral fraud even in some cases where there is a risk that doing so could lead to violence, page 6 of the report notes the project's initial findings (from Zambia and The Gambia), that voters who are most concerned about electoral violence are usually its most likely victims and support the toning down of election reports by observer missions if these reports are likely to stoke violence.

The co-founders and the Chair asked for the next meeting of ELECTOR to focus on the ongoing Local Perceptions and Media Representations of Election Observation in Africa project, where we incorporate and disseminate many of the findings of the African Elections during the COVID-19 Pandemic project.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://elector.network/research-briefs/
 
Description Presentation to Institute for Democracy, Citizenship and Public Policy in Africa Webinar 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Robert Macdonald was invited to present some of the project's findings during a Institute for Democracy, Citizenship and Public Policy in Africa webinar.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Presentation to Kenya electoral management body (IEBC) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Molony presented the Kenya bi-elections findings to the head of research at the country's Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. This was focussed on recommendations to be taken forward for the August 2022 general elections, including the suggested 'Voting procedure' illustration (used by the voter educator to explain how the voting process works), which he has adapted to include the extra steps that relate to COVID-19 mitigation measures. [Illustration available on request.]
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Presentation to the UK Parliament's All Party Parliamentary Group for Africa 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The project team presented the project's findings to a session of the UK Parliament's All Party Parliamentary Group for Africa. Some parliamentarians from groups about to host elections in other countries were also present.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Public Event: Elections and COVID in Africa: What We've Learnt - the Ghana Case 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Edem Selormey presented project findings during a public event titled 'Elections and COVID in Africa: What We've Learnt - the Ghana Case'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Public Seminar with Centre of African Studies, University of Edinburgh and Royal African Society 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact We presented our research findings at a public virtual seminar, organised by the Centre of African Studies at the University of Edinburgh and the Royal African Society. It was attended by a variety of academics, students, practitioners and policymakers.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Seminar for FCDO personnel 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Thomas Molony and Robert Macdonald presented the project findings to FCDO employees, including many who are based in countries holding elections during the pandemic. The project recommendations were discussed.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Stakeholder meeting with the Electoral Commission of Ghana 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The team working on the Ghana case study presented the project's findings to a delegation from the Electoral Commission of Ghana, headed by Dr. Bossman Asare, Deputy Commissioner, Electoral Commission of Ghana.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021