Maths Research Associates 2021 Leicester
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leicester
Department Name: Mathematics and Actuarial Sciences
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Organisations
Publications
Morozov A
(2025)
Modelling the effects of climate change on the interaction between bacteria and phages with a temperature-dependent lifecycle switch
in Scientific Reports
Sandhu S
(2024)
Revisiting the role of behavior-mediated structuring in the survival of populations in hostile environments.
in Communications biology
| Description | The current award has been used to apply mathematical and computational modelling to explore and predict dynamics of biological systems with behavioural structuring. In particular, we aimed to predict how behaviour-mediated structuring allows some species (e.g. fish or even humans) to survive in a hostile environment. The important practical application of the theory was to improve fish farming in the presence of parasites. Mathematical modelling was backed up by empirical data from several fish farms in Finland. We implemented multi-scale mathematical and computational modelling, which considered three different time scales: behavioural, demographic and evolutionary. The most important modelling achievement was that we could show that using insufficient (small) number of shelters (where individuals are well-protected from a hostile environment) is worse as compared to the scenario, where no shelters are installed. In simple terms, a partial (insufficient) improvement of conditions by providing some limited benefits becomes worse as compared to the case of no improvement. This is because individuals within the population start fighting for insufficient amount of benefits, and as a result, the whole population loses. This result is contrary to the current point of view dominating in fish farming. We stress that the proposed the modelling framework is generic. In particular, it can describe the social dynamics of humans, competing amongst each other for jobs in certain prestigious companies and/or organisations in a hostile financial climate and under societal pressure. We have published our main results in a prestigious journal Biology Communications. Another part of the study: ongoing climate change and human activities alter the population dynamics of pathogenic bacteria in natural environments, increasing the risk of disease transmission. The study used mathematical modelling back-upped by experimental data to explore, how climate change and implementation of certain agricultural practices affect interactions of bacteria with phage exhibiting condition-dependent lysogeny, where the type of phage infection lifecycle is determined by the ambient temperature. As a case study, we model alteration to the control of the pathogenic bacteria Burkholderia pseudomallei by its dominant phage. B. pseudomallei causes melioidosis, which is among the deadliest infections in Southeast Asia and across the tropics. The study predicts a drastic increase in pathogen density due to less efficient control by the phage which is caused by global warming. Some of the current agricultural practices would enhance the risk of acquisition of melioidosis by altering densities of the pathogen in the environment. |
| Exploitation Route | The project findings can be taken forward by fish farmers in the UK and across the World to reduce the parasite load in farmed fish and improve the quality of aquaculture. Our model prediction is that the current use of artificial shelters in fish farms is counter-productive since it results in a higher parasite load as in the case of a total absence of shelters. This should be properly tested and taken into consideration. Applied mathematicians specialised in modelling in biology can implement our framework for modelling other biological systems with behavioural structuring. Another important application is conservation of biodiversity of coral reefs, where behavioural structuring of populations of endangered species can result in their decline, and probably a further extinction. Finally, for social dynamics our results predict the inefficiency of the currently used philosophy of providing insufficient small benefits or social refuges (e.g. creation of centres of excellence in something). This can have negative consequences for the sustainability of some vulnerable groups of the human society (e.g. young researchers). |
| Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Environment Government Democracy and Justice |
| Description | The major impact of this research is that the obtained results are going to change our previous understanding of how fish farms (e.g. rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, production farms) should be operated to avoid extra parasite load. Modifications are currently being implemented in some fish farms in Finland to ascertain that a sufficiently large number of shelters in aquaculture is currently being used. Before fish farms usually only used a very small number of shelters, which resulted to a high infection load. Another major impact of this research is forecasting the risk of acquisition of melioidosis, which is among the deadliest infections in Southeast Asia and across the tropics. The disease is caused by the pathogen B. pseudomallei. The model is based on experimental data; it predicts a high risk of infection in the future due to climate change. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2023 |
| Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Healthcare |
| Impact Types | Economic |