Multi-hazard Vulnerability Assessment of Structures for Resilience Enhancement (MultiVERSE)
Lead Research Organisation:
UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON
Department Name: Civil Environmental and Geomatic Eng
Abstract
MultiVERSE aims to develop an innovative, robust and harmonised multi-hazard design and assessment methodology for civil infrastructures with full consideration of relevant structural, technological, economic, environmental, regulatory, and sociocultural (STEERS) factors. To achieve this aim, MultiVERSE proposes a novel performance-based multi-hazard engineering (PBME) framework (earthquake sequences and earthquake-tsunami sequences) for multi-hazard vulnerability assessment of structures in coastal regions close to tectonically active zones in Europe (e.g., Greece, Turkey, Italy). By adopting a cross-disciplinary decision-making methodology, the PBME framework addresses issues ranging from hazard interactions and their cumulative damaging effect on structural performance to the expected losses for efficient resilience-enhancing design and assessment of civil infrastructures. Although the framework is applicable to all construction types, this project focuses on reinforced concrete (RC) buildings because they represent a significant proportion of buildings in most multi-hazard-vulnerable European countries. The framework will be applied to individual buildings and a large-scale building portfolio in Italy, where the Supervisor has strong links with local stakeholders, thus ensuring data availability, knowledge transfer and actual impact of the research on local communities. MultiVERSE
builds on the probabilistic catastrophe risk modelling expertise of the Supervisor and Host Institution and the RC seismic design and assessment expertise of the Fellow. The PBME framework will promote multi-hazard risk reduction by providing better guidance to practising engineers and various stakeholders for designing new structures and assessing existing structures in multi-hazard prone regions, and practice-oriented tools for optimal decision-making in pre- and post-disaster settings (e.g., post-event building tagging and optimal repair or retrofit technique selection and design).
builds on the probabilistic catastrophe risk modelling expertise of the Supervisor and Host Institution and the RC seismic design and assessment expertise of the Fellow. The PBME framework will promote multi-hazard risk reduction by providing better guidance to practising engineers and various stakeholders for designing new structures and assessing existing structures in multi-hazard prone regions, and practice-oriented tools for optimal decision-making in pre- and post-disaster settings (e.g., post-event building tagging and optimal repair or retrofit technique selection and design).
Organisations
Publications
Aljawhari K
(2022)
A fragility-oriented approach for seismic retrofit design
in Earthquake Spectra
Cremen G
(2022)
Investigating the potential effectiveness of earthquake early warning across Europe.
in Nature communications
Cremen G
(2022)
Modelling and quantifying tomorrow's risks from natural hazards.
in The Science of the total environment
Cremen G
(2022)
A Simulation-Based Framework for Earthquake Risk-Informed and People-Centered Decision Making on Future Urban Planning
in Earth's Future
Francis T
(2023)
Seismic fragility of reinforced concrete buildings with hollow-core flooring systems
in Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering
Galasso C
(2023)
Assessing the potential implementation of earthquake early warning for schools in the Patras region, Greece
in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Galasso C
(2022)
Resilient infrastructure
in Communications Engineering
Galasso C
(2024)
The 2023 Kahramanmaras Earthquake Sequence: finding a path to a more resilient, sustainable, and equitable society
in Communications Engineering
Handa Y
(2024)
A Bayesian approach for estimating the post-earthquake recovery trajectories of electric power systems in Japan
in Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure
McCloskey J
(2023)
Reducing disaster risk for the poor in tomorrow's cities with computational science.
in Nature computational science
| Description | The MultiVERSE project achieved several critical advancements: 1) Successfully developed an advanced multi-hazard risk and resilience analysis framework designed to comprehensively address and integrate complex interactions between multiple hazards and systems, testing cutting-edge solutions for structural vulnerability reduction and resilience enhancement (e.g., https://doi.org/10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-2043, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2023.109679, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42407-y); 2) Created methodologies for assessing the post-earthquake residual capacity of both modern and older-type reinforced concrete (RC) structures, considering long-term and short-term (e.g., aftershocks) seismic event evaluations (e.g., https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231170024, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2022.127269); 3) Developed a cutting-edge design methodology for RC structures, ensuring functional recovery under strong ground shaking with multi-hazard considerations (e.g., https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241235487); 4) Established a cross-disciplinary decision-making framework, encompassing diverse factors such as structural, environmental, and regulatory considerations for disaster risk mitigation (e.g., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103623, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42407-y, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44172-024-00170-y); 5) Delivered practical implementation tools, including datasets, software, training materials, and guidelines, to enable real-world application of the framework (e.g., https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930221110256 and link to data repositories in it); 6) Applied the framework to a number of case studies, leveraging strong ties with local stakeholders to enhance its relevance, ensure data availability, and maximize its impact on local communities (e.g., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103623, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105138). All the project objectives were fully achieved. |
| Exploitation Route | Practising Engineers and Stakeholders: The proposed risk and resilience analysis framework and tools can guide the design of new reinforced concrete structures and the assessment of existing ones, ensuring resilience in multi-hazard-prone regions. Policy Makers and Regulators: The findings provide a foundation for updating building codes and regulatory standards to incorporate multi-hazard considerations. Academia and Researchers: The project opened up avenues for further interdisciplinary research, including expanding the framework to other construction types or hazard combinations (e.g., see follow-up funding received by the European Commission). Local Communities and Authorities: The implementation of the framework in the case-study region (e.g., Indonesia) demonstrates its practical value, ensuring its adoption and continued impact through close collaboration with local stakeholders. Disaster Management Agencies: Practice-oriented tools, such as post-event building tagging and optimal retrofit strategies can enhance disaster response and recovery efforts. |
| Sectors | Construction Education Environment |
| Description | The MultiVERSE project has begun to demonstrate substantial impact across multiple sectors, with effects anticipated to evolve and deepen over time. Economic and Societal Impact: The MultiVERSE framework is contributing to enhanced resilience and reduced risk in multi-hazard-prone regions such as Indonesia. By providing improved methodologies for assessing and mitigating structural vulnerabilities, the project supports safer, more sustainable communities in seismically active zones such as Indonesia. The practical tools and guidelines developed have already garnered interest from practising engineers (e.g., from ARUP as well as from local companies in Indonesia) and local authorities (Ministry of Education in Indonesia), laying the groundwork for adoption in real-world applications. Furthermore, the economic benefits of reduced infrastructure damage and optimized disaster response strategies are expected to amplify over time as the framework's adoption increases. Impact Beyond Academia: Beyond academic circles, the project's findings have begun to influence policymakers and disaster management agencies. The methodologies, assessments, and interventions developed under the MultiVERSE project have been effectively documented in a White Paper for the Ministry of Education, Indonesia. This document highlights the innovative multi-hazard risk and resilience analysis framework and its application to addressing complex hazard interactions. The White Paper includes detailed guidance on the successful methodologies from MultiVERSE, alongside links to training resources derived from the project's findings. These materials ensure that the practical interventions, particularly in risk assessment and structural resilience, can be applied in the future to enhance disaster preparedness and response capabilities in multi-hazard-prone regions. Challenges Overcome: The project addressed several challenges to achieve impact, such as: 1) Coordinating interdisciplinary contributions to develop the proposed framework/methodologies. 2) Establishing strong collaborations with local stakeholders in Indonesia to ensure the project's findings are grounded in real-world needs. 3) Overcoming data limitations through effective partnerships with local groups in Indonesia and fieldwords. Academic Impact: The MultiVERSE project has significantly advanced research in multi-hazard risk assessment and resilience analysis. It has established a new interdisciplinary research area that integrates structural engineering with economic, environmental, and sociocultural factors, inspiring further studies. The dissemination of findings through conferences and publications has sparked dialogue within the academic community, fostering collaborative opportunities. As the project continues to evolve, its long-term impacts are expected to extend further into public policy, private sector practices, and global disaster resilience efforts. |
| Sector | Construction,Education,Environment |
| Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
| Description | Advisory Board Member for the Research Centre for Risks and Sustainability in Construction (RISCO) (Carmine Galasso) |
| Geographic Reach | Europe |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| URL | https://www.ua.pt/en/risco |
| Description | Member of the Community for the European Observatory of Good Practices (CEO), ROADMAP2 (Carmine Galasso) |
| Geographic Reach | Europe |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| URL | https://civil-protection-knowledge-network.europa.eu/stories/roadmap2-community-european-observatory... |
| Description | HORIZON-CL5-2023-D4-02-02: Minority Report - Mitigating Environmental Disruptive Events Using People-Centric Predictive Digital Technologies To Improve Disaster And Climate Resilience |
| Amount | € 5,000,000 (EUR) |
| Organisation | Innovate UK |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 05/2024 |
| End | 12/2027 |
| Description | HORIZON-MSCA-2023-PF-01-01/Marie Curie Individual Fellowships: ISCREANE - Improving Seismic resilience of CRitical facilities by Enhanced Assessment of Non-structural Elements |
| Amount | € 236,748 (EUR) |
| Organisation | United Kingdom Research and Innovation |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 08/2024 |
| End | 08/2025 |
| Description | People-Centered Tsunami early Warning for the INdian coastlines (PCTWIN) |
| Amount | £910,100 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | NE/Z503496/1 |
| Organisation | United Kingdom Research and Innovation |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 02/2024 |
| End | 01/2028 |
| Description | UCL Engineering for Society |
| Amount | $200,000 (USD) |
| Organisation | Motorola Solutions |
| Department | Motorola Solutions Foundation |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| Country | United States |
| Start | 08/2022 |
| End | 12/2024 |
| Title | Post-disaster-modelling-of-school-infrastructure |
| Description | Tool for simulating post-disaster-modelling-of-school-infrastructure |
| Type Of Technology | Software |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Open Source License? | Yes |
| Impact | Advancement in disaster risk management in low-income communities |
| Description | Fieldtrip in Central Sulawesi |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Study participants or study members |
| Results and Impact | 56 stakeholder participated in a workshop which provided data for research work |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |