GLOBE: The Greenland Subglacial Lake Observatory

Theoretical predictions suggest that 1600 subglacial lakes lie hidden beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet. Yet less than 5% have been discovered to date, and studies have found only 7 that are actively filling or draining. Tracking active lakes beneath Greenland is problematic because they are 100 times smaller than those beneath Antarctica, rendering them undetectable by most standard satellite methods. Here, I will radically advance the ability to detect, monitor, forecast and understand the dynamics of active Greenland subglacial lakes at scale. GLOBE will transform the field from its current state, where almost nothing is known about their distribution, dynamics, drivers and impacts; to a position where all lakes are monitored in real time, their histories are resolved, and probabilistic forecasts predict their future drainage. GLOBE will achieve this through innovation in three key areas, 1) exploiting new, super-high resolution satellite data at scale, 2) developing new methods that exploit unconventional data, and 3) developing novel deep learning and statistical forecasting methodologies. Specifically, I will 1) use high-volume digital elevation models and machine learning to map lake activity, for the first time, over the entire continent and the past 25 years, 2) train deep learning models to search for active lakes in historical satellite imagery, 3) use video surveillance methods to autonomously identify new lake activity as it happens, and 4) use statistical techniques to make the first forecasts of future lake evolution. Ultimately, GLOBE will catalyse an entirely new approach to large-scale lake monitoring, creating a Greenland Subglacial Lake Observatory that autonomously tracks, forecasts and disseminates lake activity, thus transforming understanding of the drivers, dynamics and impacts of elusive lake drainage events.