PROPENSITY TO FLY: THE DEVELOPMENT OF STATED CHOICE MODELS FOR AIR TRAVEL
Lead Research Organisation:
Loughborough University
Department Name: Civil and Building Engineering
Abstract
Individuals are flying more than ever before and over greater distances. The boom in low-cost airlines such as Ryanair and easyJet has made air travel more affordable and is stimulating leisure and increasingly, business demand. The research focus is on the general public and the choices they make when deciding whether to fly or not. For instance, if air fares rise by 20%, but the time taken to reach the airport falls by 10%, would an individual still choose to fly for a particular journey?The overall goal of the research is to assess the propensity, or likelihood, of individuals to fly. It concerns the development of stated choice models to assess the propensity to fly, and how this propensity varies across different segments of the population. Data for these modelling and segmentation tasks will largely come from a questionnaire survey of individual flying preferences. Data will be collected from over 1,000 residents of the East Midlands region, in which Nottingham East Midlands airport is located. Questions in the survey will concern socio-economic information, access to airports, flight history and attitudes towards air travel. In addition, a series of stated preference questions will be included, in which respondents will make hypothetical choices of whether to fly or not for specified leisure trips using low-cost airlines.The project will deliver a stated choice modelling capability and a greater understanding of air travel market segments. Such findings will be of benefit to aviation policy-makers, as they consider air travel demand forecasting and future airport capacity. Airlines and regional airports will also be beneficiaries, particularly those interested in the demand for air travel in the East Midlands region.
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
Tim Ryley (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Davison L
(2013)
The relationship between air travel behaviour and the key life stages of having children and entering retirement
in Journal of Transport Geography
Davison L
(2010)
Tourism destination preferences of low-cost airline users in the East Midlands
in Journal of Transport Geography
Davison L
(2016)
An examination of the role of domestic destinations in satisfying holiday demands
in Journal of Transport Geography
Davison L
(2014)
Air travel attitudes and behaviours: The development of environment-based segments
in Journal of Air Transport Management
L Davison
(2010)
Regional airports in a competitive market: a case study of Cardiff International Airport
in Journal of Airport Management [paper accepted]
L Davison (Author)
(2007)
A media analysis of United Kingdom aviation and air travel stories
in World Transport Policy & Practice
Ryley T
(2008)
UK air travel preferences: Evidence from an East Midlands household survey
in Journal of Air Transport Management
Ryley T
(2013)
Valuing air transportation and sustainability from a public perspective: Evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States
in Research in Transportation Business & Management
Ryley T
(2010)
Public Engagement on Aviation Taxes in the United Kingdom
in International Journal of Sustainable Transportation
Description | Individuals are flying more than ever before and over greater distances. The boom in low-cost airlines such as Ryanair and easyJet made air travel more affordable and is stimulating leisure and increasingly, business demand. Recent economic pressures and on-going environmental concerns are influencing air travel attitudes and behaviour. The Propensity to Fly research focus was on the general public and the choices they make when conducting air travel. The overall goal of the research was to assess the propensity, or likelihood, of individuals to fly. It concerned the development of stated choice models to assess the propensity to fly, and how this propensity varies across different segments of the population. The initial stage of the project included a literature review, media analysis, focus groups (supplemented by aviation tax focus groups for the Sustainable Development Commission), and examination of secondary data (including purchased CAA data for the East Midlands region). Insights include the impacts of life stage (such as having children and retirement) upon air travel, and an overall individual preference for greener aviation solutions through technology improvements rather than restricting air travel behaviour. The main data collection phase was a series of questionnaire-based East Midlands Air Travel Surveys (EMATS), of over 1,400 households. EMATS1 included innovative stated choice experiments for flight and airport decision-making; EMATS2 involved a survey panel to examine repeat choice decisions and the examination of the decision whether to fly or not; EMATS3 had a particular focus on the environmental aspects of air travel choices (including a flight energy rating) and associated attitudes (linking with the Theory of Planned Behaviour). The project delivered a stated choice modelling capability, highlighting the willingness of individuals to make both airline and airport trade-offs. In addition to air fare, the important of departure time and airport parking cost when making air travel decisions has been highlighted. Segmentation, using cluster analysis, identified 8 distinct population segments (e.g. "less mobile, low earners"; "retiring frequent flyers"). Only a small proportion of respondents were trying to fly less for environmental reasons; it would take a ?50 increase in total air fare for most individuals to reduce their air travel. The research team (Dr Ryley & Dr Davison) used the same travel behaviour methodology (segmentation & choice modelling) as part of two further EPSRC projects (FUTURENET, ABC project). Propensity to Fly was boosted by the ESPRC INDICATOR project in 2007/2008, which enabled further training, international collaborations and dissemination in both air travel and operational research. |
Exploitation Route | A range of stakeholders was engaged throughout the project including airports (e.g. East Midlands airport), airlines (e.g. bmi baby), Government (e.g. Department for Transport) and other bodies (e.g. Sustainable Development Commission, East Midlands Tourism). This was achieved through seminars, stakeholder visits and a project newsletter, and is continuing through subsequent research projects by the research team. The project delivered a stated choice modelling capability and a greater understanding of air travel market segments. Potential exploitation includes taking the findings to national policy-makers, airports, airlines and other relevant bodies (i.e. Civil Aviation Authority, International Air Transport Association). |
Sectors | Environment,Transport |
Description | A range of stakeholders were engaged throughout and after the project including airports (e.g. East Midlands airport), airlines (e.g. bmi baby), Government (e.g. Department for Transport) and other bodies (e.g. Sustainable Development Commission, East Midlands Tourism). The modelling effort was developed further using the same travel behaviour methodology (segmentation & choice modelling) as part of two further EPSRC projects (FUTURENET, ABC project). Propensity to Fly was boosted by the ESPRC INDICATOR project in 2007/2008, which enabled further training, international collaborations and dissemination in both air travel and operational research. |
First Year Of Impact | 2012 |
Sector | Transport |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Description | EPSRC Success through people |
Amount | £37,267 (GBP) |
Funding ID | EP/F012683/1 |
Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 10/2007 |
End | 06/2008 |