Cross Disciplinary Feasibility Account: Warwick Centre for Fusion Space and Astrophysics.
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Warwick
Department Name: Physics
Abstract
A central idea that we wish to pursue is the dynamic response of real world complex systems to 'shock or surprise'. Both the brain and financial systems (meaning markets, individual companies or sectors), are functionally comprised of many interacting elements which propagate and process information. A highly topical question is whether it is possible to quantify from available data when the response of a system to a 'shock' will be within normal bounds (normal response time to a neurological test task, a fluctuation in price) or will be highly correlated and catastrophic (a seizure, a stock market crash or company failure). Understanding this would lead to paradigm shifting insights into both brain function and financial system dynamics. Researchers within Warwick's interdisciplinary EPSRC and STFC funded Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics (CFSA) have pioneered techniques to analyse 'real world' data from laboratory experiments for Magnetic Confinement Fusion and from astrophysical plasmas. These plasma systems can exhibit rather unpredictable 'bursty' behaviour and can self organise, that is, show large scale transitions from disordered to highly ordered, correlated behaviour. We propose to apply these ideas to focus on two cross-disciplinary 'grand challenges': brain function, and market dynamics, as captured by Magnetoencephalography (MEG) measurements of the brain, and by financial and other company data. This implies a high degree of cross- disciplinary working, between plasma physicists within CFSA, Warwick, neurologists within the MRC Cognition & Brain Sciences Unit, Cambridge, and strategists within the Warwick Business School.In the framework of the physical sciences there is a direct and well understood mapping between quantifying such systems and modelling them. An open question that we will address is how such a mapping can be rigorously and usefully applied in the wider context. By building bridges between traditionally segregated disciplines (neuroscience, econometrics and plasma physics) we can tackle substantive interdisciplinary questions, for example, in what sense is a market crash like an epileptic seizure in the brain? Addressing such questions in a quantitative and predictive manner has the potential for far reaching impact in both clinical neuroscience and econometrics. This radical approach will enable physical models to be extended beyond their now mature application to contribute, and perhaps create, a far broader interface with the wider social sciences.
Planned Impact
The nature of the work being undertaken is highly speculative but has potential for far reaching impact. Clearly, any advance in our understanding of the response of financial markets and systems to 'shocks', or a diagnostic of neurological health based on non-invasive MEG technology will have the potential to make significant contributions to EPSRC's priority themes of security of energy supply and living with environmental change, and next generation healthcare. Who will benefit from the research and how will they benefit from this research? Development of new quantitative tools to assess how brain systems process information in healthy and disordered states will be of considerable interest to clinical neuroscience and psychiatry. Ultimately, quantitative insights into how MEG data relate to human brain function would lead to methods to diagnose cognitive function and disorders, with particular application to epilepsy and schizophrenia. The economic and social costs of brain disorders associated with impaired cognitive function and poor occupational performance are substantial. The annual costs of schizophrenia alone are estimated to be in the order of 7bn annually in the UK, of which about 2bn is due to direct healthcare costs. In tackling these disorders therapeutically, a key objective is to develop better models for how distributed brain systems normally process information and how pathological disruption of these systems can lead to impairment. The development of quantitative approaches to MEG that we propose would ensure that full scientific value is obtained from the major recent investments in neuroimaging infrastructure and it will potentially provide new diagnostic and predictive biomarkers of cognitive impairment that could be used to improve patient care and to support development of new pro-cognitive drugs. The importance of the proposed research from this perspective is that it includes data on well-established cognitive testing paradigms in healthy volunteers and people with schizophrenia. This means that the results will be immediately of interest to academic and industrial neuroscientists with potential for major impact on how cognitive disorders are understood theoretically and approached therapeutically. Quantifying the likely impact of news or events on markets and companies again has clear application to their monitoring and management. The current instability has cost some 475bn globally according to the IMF. Clearly any successful mitigation techniques would be valuable to business strategists and organisations from single investors to Governments (eg Risk Analysts, Company Director mentors, Financial strategists and Central Banks). There is also potentially a significant feedback to plasma physics based challenges in particular space weather applications and to understanding enhanced confinement modes of MCF with relevance to ITER operating regimes. What will be done to ensure that they benefit from this research? Cognitive researchers are typically also practicing clinicians, and business strategists in academia work closely with companies. Results and ideas flowing from this research would therefore quickly flow into potential applications where appropriate. We will also present and promote our results more formally at workshops open to practicing clinicians and to practicing business strategists. We will engage the wider community and press where appropriate. Warwick Ventures have a strategy and procedure in place to effect licensing and dissemination to the wider business community. There is also direct benefit to the training of young researchers and enhancement of interdisciplinary activity. We will provide training and introduction to patents, licensing and spin- out companies to the researchers supported on this grant.
Organisations
Publications
Nicol R
(2009)
Evolving magnetohydrodynamic turbulence in the quiet fast solar wind
in 36th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics 2009, EPS 2009 - Europhysics Conference Abstracts
Cook J
(2009)
Particle-in-cell simulations of the emission mechanism for fusion product-driven ion cyclotron emission from tokamak plasmas
in 36th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics 2009, EPS 2009 - Europhysics Conference Abstracts
Cook J
(2010)
Growth rates of fusion product driven lower hybrid drift instability
in 37th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics 2010, EPS 2010
Gingell P
(2011)
Hybrid code investigation of the physics of multi-species plasma blobs in magnetic fields
in 38th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics 2011, EPS 2011 - Europhysics Conference Abstracts
Cook J
(2011)
Wave-particle resonance and gyrobunching in the lower hybrid drift instability
in 38th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics 2011, EPS 2011 - Europhysics Conference Abstracts
Dendy R
(2012)
Modelling local time evolution of strong heat pulses in magnetically confined plasmas
in 39th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics 2012, EPS 2012 and the 16th International Congress on Plasma Physics
Cook J
(2012)
Fully nonlinear kinetic simulations of fusion product-driven ion cyclotron emission from tokamak plasmas
in 39th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics 2012, EPS 2012 and the 16th International Congress on Plasma Physics
Zhu H
(2013)
Robustness of predator-prey models for confinement transitions in tokamak plasmas
in 40th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics, EPS 2013
Webster A
(2013)
The statistics of edge-localised plasma instabilities
in 40th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics, EPS 2013
Calderon F
(2013)
Low dimensional dynamics in type I ELMing in JET plasmas
in 40th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics, EPS 2013
Lai W
(2013)
Investigating the anomalous Doppler effect for suprathermal electrons in tokamak plasmas using self-consistent kinetic simulations
in 40th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics, EPS 2013
Rekaa V
(2013)
Perpendicular shock reformation and multi-ion species acceleration in astrophysical plasmas
in 40th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics, EPS 2013
Chapman S.C.
(2014)
An apparent relation between ELM occurrence times and the prior phase
in 41st EPS Conference on Plasma Physics
Srivastava A
(2013)
Simulation of the observed coronal kink instability and its implications for the SDO/AIA
in Advances in Space Research
Lavraud B
(2010)
Statistics of counter-streaming solar wind suprathermal electrons at solar minimum: STEREO observations
in Annales Geophysicae
Hershaw J
(2011)
Damped large amplitude transverse oscillations in an EUV solar prominence, triggered by large-scale transient coronal waves
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Gruszecki M
(2011)
Slow magnetacoustic waves in magnetic arcades
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Botha G
(2010)
Thermal conduction effects on the kink instability in coronal loops
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Gruszecki M
(2011)
Magnetoacoustic shock formation near a magnetic null point
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
McLaughlin J
(2008)
Nonlinear fast magnetoacoustic wave propagation in the neighbourhood of a 2D magnetic X-point: oscillatory reconnection
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Vasheghani Farahani S
(2009)
Propagating transverse waves in soft X-ray coronal jets
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Kobanov N
(2010)
Height distribution of the power of 3-min oscillations over sunspots
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Inglis A
(2009)
Characteristics of magnetoacoustic sausage modes
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Sych R
(2009)
Relationship between wave processes in sunspots and quasi-periodic pulsations in active region flares
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Vasheghani Farahani S
(2012)
Nonlinear evolution of torsional Alfvén waves
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Verwichte E
(2013)
Statistical seismology of transverse waves in the solar corona
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Nakariakov V
(2009)
The possible role of vortex shedding in the excitation of kink-mode oscillations in the solar corona
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Sych R
(2012)
Frequency drifts of 3-min oscillations in microwave and EUV emission above sunspots
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Inglis A
(2011)
Instrumental oscillations in RHESSI count rates during solar flares
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Pugh C
(2019)
Scaling laws of quasi-periodic pulsations in solar flares
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Pascoe D
(2013)
Fast magnetoacoustic wave trains in magnetic funnels of the solar corona
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Yuan D
(2011)
Leakage of long-period oscillations from the chromosphere to the corona
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Reid J
(2020)
Coronal energy release by MHD avalanches: Heating mechanisms
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Yuan D
(2012)
Measuring the apparent phase speed of propagating EUV disturbances
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Gruszecki M
(2012)
Intensity variations associated with fast sausage modes
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Kolotkov D
(2020)
Seismological constraints on the solar coronal heating function
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Chorley N
(2011)
Period persistence of long period oscillations in sunspots
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Terradas J
(2011)
Linear coupling between fast and slow MHD waves due to line-tying effects
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Vasheghani Farahani S
(2010)
Nonlinear long-wavelength torsional Alfvén waves
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Murawski K
(2011)
Entropy mode at a magnetic null point as a possible tool for indirect observation of nanoflares in the solar corona
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Anfinogentov S
(2013)
Decay-less kink oscillations in coronal loops
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Nisticò G
(2013)
Decaying and decayless transverse oscillations of a coronal loop
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
White R
(2012)
First observation of a transverse vertical oscillation during the formation of a hot post-flare loop
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Copil P
(2010)
Torsional Alfvén waves in small scale current threads of the solar corona
in Astronomy and Astrophysics
Shepherd T
(2018)
Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change
in Climatic Change
Peeters A
(2009)
The nonlinear gyro-kinetic flux tube code GKW
in Computer Physics Communications
Schlanges M
(2010)
Energy Relaxation Study for Warm Dense Matter Experiments
in Contributions to Plasma Physics
Stainforth D
(2013)
Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions
in Environmental Research Letters
Chapman S
(2015)
Limits to the quantification of local climate change
in Environmental Research Letters
Hornsby W
(2010)
On the nonlinear coupling between micro turbulence and mesoscale magnetic islands in a plasma
in EPL (Europhysics Letters)
Description | please see the relevant research papers |
Exploitation Route | please see the relevant research papers and grants |
Sectors | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare |
Description | please see the relevant research papers |
First Year Of Impact | 2013 |
Sector | Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy |
Impact Types | Economic |
Description | AFOSR |
Amount | $100,000 (USD) |
Funding ID | FA9550-17-1-0054 |
Organisation | Airforce Office of Scientific Research |
Sector | Public |
Country | United States |
Start | 03/2017 |
End | 03/2018 |
Description | Fulbright-Lloyd's of London Scholarship 2017/18 |
Amount | $60,000 (USD) |
Organisation | US-UK Fulbright Commission |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 10/2017 |
End | 09/2018 |
Description | NORKLIMA |
Amount | kr 900,000 (NOK) |
Organisation | Research Council of Norway |
Sector | Public |
Country | Norway |
Start | 01/2014 |
End | 01/2016 |
Description | Newton-CONICYT |
Amount | $1,438,000 (CLP) |
Organisation | Newton Fund |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2015 |
End | 10/2016 |