DMS-EPSRC Sharp Large Deviation Estimates of Fluctuations in Stochastic Hydrodynamic Systems
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Warwick
Department Name: Mathematics
Abstract
Extreme events can be highly impactful. They are typically rare, which is fortunate if their consequences are negative on society, but also makes them difficult to predict. The scope of this project is to develop computational tools that can be applied to gain understanding of how extreme events occur in complex stochastic systems. Examples are models for the forecasting of extreme weather-related events like tropical storms and flooding as well as the spread of pollutants in case of ocean oil spills. Our tools will enable researchers to ask questions beyond of what is currently possible. This will lead to transformative improvement of current predictive models, which is essential for efficient management of natural and man made disasters. Further applications include the characterization of extreme events in stochastic models that behave similar to fluids, for example in the context of epidemics, traffic, and star formation.
People |
ORCID iD |
Tobias Grafke (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Schorlepp T
(2021)
Gel'fand-Yaglom type equations for calculating fluctuations around instantons in stochastic systems
in Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical
Frishman A
(2021)
Dynamical landscape of transitional pipe flow
Ferré G
(2021)
Approximate Optimal Controls via Instanton Expansion for Low Temperature Free Energy Computation
in Multiscale Modeling & Simulation
Alqahtani M
(2021)
Extreme events and instantons in Lagrangian passive scalar turbulence models
Alqahtani M
(2021)
Instantons for rare events in heavy-tailed distributions
in Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical
Margazoglou G
(2021)
Dynamical landscape and multistability of a climate model
in Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Alqahtani M
(2022)
Extreme events and instantons in Lagrangian passive scalar turbulence models.
in Physical review. E
Schorlepp T
(2022)
Spontaneous symmetry breaking for extreme vorticity and strain in the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations.
in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences