DMS-EPSRC Sharp Large Deviation Estimates of Fluctuations in Stochastic Hydrodynamic Systems
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Warwick
Department Name: Mathematics
Abstract
Extreme events can be highly impactful. They are typically rare, which is fortunate if their consequences are negative on society, but also makes them difficult to predict. The scope of this project is to develop computational tools that can be applied to gain understanding of how extreme events occur in complex stochastic systems. Examples are models for the forecasting of extreme weather-related events like tropical storms and flooding as well as the spread of pollutants in case of ocean oil spills. Our tools will enable researchers to ask questions beyond of what is currently possible. This will lead to transformative improvement of current predictive models, which is essential for efficient management of natural and man made disasters. Further applications include the characterization of extreme events in stochastic models that behave similar to fluids, for example in the context of epidemics, traffic, and star formation.
People |
ORCID iD |
Tobias Grafke (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Grafke T
(2023)
Sharp asymptotic estimates for expectations, probabilities, and mean first passage times in stochastic systems with small noise
in Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics
Schorlepp T
(2021)
Gel'fand-Yaglom type equations for calculating fluctuations around instantons in stochastic systems
in Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical
Alqahtani M
(2021)
Instantons for rare events in heavy-tailed distributions
in Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical
Schorlepp T
(2023)
Symmetries and Zero Modes in Sample Path Large Deviations
in Journal of Statistical Physics
Ferré G
(2021)
Approximate Optimal Controls via Instanton Expansion for Low Temperature Free Energy Computation
in Multiscale Modeling & Simulation
Grafke T
(2024)
Metadynamics for Transition Paths in Irreversible Dynamics
in Multiscale Modeling & Simulation
Schorlepp T
(2022)
Spontaneous symmetry breaking for extreme vorticity and strain in the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations.
in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
Sprittles J
(2023)
Rogue nanowaves: A route to film rupture
in Physical Review Fluids
Alqahtani M
(2022)
Extreme events and instantons in Lagrangian passive scalar turbulence models.
in Physical review. E
Frishman A
(2022)
Dynamical landscape of transitional pipe flow.
in Physical review. E