Roadmaps to Zero Net Emissions in Urban Public Transport
Lead Research Organisation:
Queen's University Belfast
Department Name: Sch Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
Abstract
Technological and societal changes are transforming the nature of public transport services. As concerns over air quality, congestion, and energy security have become elevated, there has been increasing emphasis on the development of sustainable, reliable low- and zero-emissions transport systems.
In response there has been significant investment in new bus technologies - across the EU, there are currently over 1,300 electric buses in operation or on order, with the UK holding 18% of these as the largest operator in Europe. There are commitments from 19 public operators and authorities across 25 European cities, which would see a growth in this fleet of up to 92% over the next 3 years, and by 2025 the size of the electric bus fleet across the EU could be increased by more than 4.5 times over the baseline today. At a global level, the Combined Annual Growth Rate for electric buses is currently predicted to be 33.5% between 2017 and 2025. This rapid growth in the sector represents a substantial business opportunity for the UK, but brings to the forefront a multitude of challenges including concerns over cost of acquisition/operation, vehicle range, energy efficiency, suitability of infrastructure (both civil and energy) to respond to the growing demand, how to account for blockages due to social acceptance, policy conflicts and effective management of future waste streams.
It is in this context that the current Prosperity Partnership brings together a multi-disciplinary team encompassing Queen's University Belfast and Wrightbus to deliver a comprehensive understanding of the challenges arising from introducing next generation zero net emissions (ZNE) buses into the public transport sector. In a climate of rapid innovation, a detailed understanding of both the short- and long-term technology risks and opportunities is key to successful exploitation. The proposed research aims to ensure that the UK remains at the forefront of development in the next, and future, generations of energy efficient bus technologies. The research will focus on four key, highly integrated challenges:
1. There is no consensus on an optimal zero net emissions vehicle technology in the bus sector, with significant challenges in developing powertrain technologies which maximise the fuel/emissions/range/load factor efficiencies while maintaining pace with advancements in health monitoring and autonomy. With sector specific challenges, the bus industry is lagging behind the passenger car sector but will play a critical role in underpinning the next generation low carbon economy.
2. Next generation vehicles will need to be increasingly resilient to variations in energy consumption, not only at the vehicle level to mitigate range anxiety, where energy consumption will vary considerably as a function of route driven, but also across fleets, where enhanced understanding of the lifecycle energy requirements and waste streams will contribute to future enhanced energy efficiency and security.
3. As buses become increasingly more advanced, there are opportunities to not only improve the design of the vehicle, but also how it integrates with infrastructure, moving towards the next generation of Smart Cities. Drive-by monitoring and inductive charging of infrastructure sensors will enable greater understanding of how our transport systems impact on the state of health of our infrastructure, and to understand how added value from our bus networks can be secured through vehicle-based monitoring protocols.
4. There is uncertainty across the sector in how emerging policy can account for extra-technological dimensions; for example, societal impacts, legitimacy, cultural norms, and economic opportunities. There is a need to integrate these societal dimensions with technological innovation as part of the mapping and governance of transition pathways.
In response there has been significant investment in new bus technologies - across the EU, there are currently over 1,300 electric buses in operation or on order, with the UK holding 18% of these as the largest operator in Europe. There are commitments from 19 public operators and authorities across 25 European cities, which would see a growth in this fleet of up to 92% over the next 3 years, and by 2025 the size of the electric bus fleet across the EU could be increased by more than 4.5 times over the baseline today. At a global level, the Combined Annual Growth Rate for electric buses is currently predicted to be 33.5% between 2017 and 2025. This rapid growth in the sector represents a substantial business opportunity for the UK, but brings to the forefront a multitude of challenges including concerns over cost of acquisition/operation, vehicle range, energy efficiency, suitability of infrastructure (both civil and energy) to respond to the growing demand, how to account for blockages due to social acceptance, policy conflicts and effective management of future waste streams.
It is in this context that the current Prosperity Partnership brings together a multi-disciplinary team encompassing Queen's University Belfast and Wrightbus to deliver a comprehensive understanding of the challenges arising from introducing next generation zero net emissions (ZNE) buses into the public transport sector. In a climate of rapid innovation, a detailed understanding of both the short- and long-term technology risks and opportunities is key to successful exploitation. The proposed research aims to ensure that the UK remains at the forefront of development in the next, and future, generations of energy efficient bus technologies. The research will focus on four key, highly integrated challenges:
1. There is no consensus on an optimal zero net emissions vehicle technology in the bus sector, with significant challenges in developing powertrain technologies which maximise the fuel/emissions/range/load factor efficiencies while maintaining pace with advancements in health monitoring and autonomy. With sector specific challenges, the bus industry is lagging behind the passenger car sector but will play a critical role in underpinning the next generation low carbon economy.
2. Next generation vehicles will need to be increasingly resilient to variations in energy consumption, not only at the vehicle level to mitigate range anxiety, where energy consumption will vary considerably as a function of route driven, but also across fleets, where enhanced understanding of the lifecycle energy requirements and waste streams will contribute to future enhanced energy efficiency and security.
3. As buses become increasingly more advanced, there are opportunities to not only improve the design of the vehicle, but also how it integrates with infrastructure, moving towards the next generation of Smart Cities. Drive-by monitoring and inductive charging of infrastructure sensors will enable greater understanding of how our transport systems impact on the state of health of our infrastructure, and to understand how added value from our bus networks can be secured through vehicle-based monitoring protocols.
4. There is uncertainty across the sector in how emerging policy can account for extra-technological dimensions; for example, societal impacts, legitimacy, cultural norms, and economic opportunities. There is a need to integrate these societal dimensions with technological innovation as part of the mapping and governance of transition pathways.
Planned Impact
As the Partnership develops, it is anticipated that there will be four key types of impact realised from the work: Academic, Industrial, Societal and Economic.
The Partnership is led by a team with over twenty years of collaboration in the delivery of high value, high quality research in the public transport domain, and the work proposed in this Partnership will build upon this foundation to deliver, in the first instance, global academic and industrial leadership in zero net emissions urban bus sector. This Academic Impact will be achieved through high-value knowledge creation in close partnership with the OEM, and later with the supply chain and operators. Sharing of this new knowledge base through academic publications, conference dissemination and other academic engagement routes will rapidly inform the areas where further fundamental level research is critical, helping to reduce the lead time between low TRL level research and industrial uptake, and elevating the international standing of the research team at QUB. The research will also help to sustain and grow the William Wright Technology Centre at Queen's University Belfast as a focal point for next generation bus vehicle development activities, and will be used as a platform to further develop a strategic network with other transportation focussed centres across the UK and internationally to become a model for successful academic-industrial collaboration.
The Industrial Impact of the work will be realised in a number of ways. First, the international competitiveness of Wrightbus will be enriched through access to state-of-the-art modelling techniques, new understanding of how best to approach fundamental infrastructure and policy related challenges, and new methodologies which can support next generation bus development programmes transferred directly from the academic team through secondments and ongoing technical engagement. Secondly, as future gaps in product development are identified, Wrightbus and their partners will be able to respond more rapidly to upcoming challenges and opportunities in the sector. Finally, all sectors of industry will benefit from the training and development of a new generation of engineers and researchers with a keen understanding of the challenges associated with the development of a sustainable, efficient zero net emissions public transport system.
Through the combination of Academic and Industrial Impact, significant Economic Impact is envisaged. This is not only through the development of methodologies and toolsets which will underpin the creation of next generation sustainable ZNE vehicle concepts, which will benefit the UK economy through competitive domestic and international sales, but also through high value job creation and security in this emerging sector (bus manufacturing sustains over 20,000 jobs through direct and indirect employment throughout the UK). The project also offers the potential to identify emerging business opportunities for further growth and expansion for both the partners and their wider supply chain/academic networks, and resulting outputs from this work which can be used to inform government/local authority/operator economic policy and public transport investment strategies. This will inevitably stimulate Societal Impact through rapid escalation of next generation zero net emission vehicle technologies from concept through to production, with net benefits for public mobility and health.
The Partnership is led by a team with over twenty years of collaboration in the delivery of high value, high quality research in the public transport domain, and the work proposed in this Partnership will build upon this foundation to deliver, in the first instance, global academic and industrial leadership in zero net emissions urban bus sector. This Academic Impact will be achieved through high-value knowledge creation in close partnership with the OEM, and later with the supply chain and operators. Sharing of this new knowledge base through academic publications, conference dissemination and other academic engagement routes will rapidly inform the areas where further fundamental level research is critical, helping to reduce the lead time between low TRL level research and industrial uptake, and elevating the international standing of the research team at QUB. The research will also help to sustain and grow the William Wright Technology Centre at Queen's University Belfast as a focal point for next generation bus vehicle development activities, and will be used as a platform to further develop a strategic network with other transportation focussed centres across the UK and internationally to become a model for successful academic-industrial collaboration.
The Industrial Impact of the work will be realised in a number of ways. First, the international competitiveness of Wrightbus will be enriched through access to state-of-the-art modelling techniques, new understanding of how best to approach fundamental infrastructure and policy related challenges, and new methodologies which can support next generation bus development programmes transferred directly from the academic team through secondments and ongoing technical engagement. Secondly, as future gaps in product development are identified, Wrightbus and their partners will be able to respond more rapidly to upcoming challenges and opportunities in the sector. Finally, all sectors of industry will benefit from the training and development of a new generation of engineers and researchers with a keen understanding of the challenges associated with the development of a sustainable, efficient zero net emissions public transport system.
Through the combination of Academic and Industrial Impact, significant Economic Impact is envisaged. This is not only through the development of methodologies and toolsets which will underpin the creation of next generation sustainable ZNE vehicle concepts, which will benefit the UK economy through competitive domestic and international sales, but also through high value job creation and security in this emerging sector (bus manufacturing sustains over 20,000 jobs through direct and indirect employment throughout the UK). The project also offers the potential to identify emerging business opportunities for further growth and expansion for both the partners and their wider supply chain/academic networks, and resulting outputs from this work which can be used to inform government/local authority/operator economic policy and public transport investment strategies. This will inevitably stimulate Societal Impact through rapid escalation of next generation zero net emission vehicle technologies from concept through to production, with net benefits for public mobility and health.
Publications
Argyriou I
(2023)
A Political Economy and Multi-Stakeholder Perspective of Net-Zero Emission Urban Bus Transportation in the United Kingdom
in Future Transportation
Argyriou I
(2021)
The political economy of socio-technical transitions: A relational view of the state and bus system decarbonization in the United Kingdom
in Energy Research & Social Science
Argyriou, I
(2023)
A political economy and multi-stakeholder perspective of net-zero emission urban bus transportation in the United Kingdom.
in Future Transportation
Blades L
(2020)
Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems for City Bus Applications
Lydon D
(2022)
Use of a roving computer vision system to compare anomaly detection techniques for health monitoring of bridges
in Journal of Civil Structural Health Monitoring
Lydon D
(2021)
Bridge Damage Detection Approach Using a Roving Camera Technique.
in Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)
Description | The award has established new tools and methods that can be used to explore the energy consumption, carbon emissions and cost associated with new generation net zero emission bus vehicles. This has extended to developing an understanding of how the region in which these vehicles are operating in can influence their carbon emissions due to the available energy supply and the ambient temperature conditions, and how to account for these variations in mathematical models of the vehicle impact. New methods of rapidly evaluating the necessary fleet blends of hydrogen and battery electric vehicles have been developed which provide more transparency for business, operators and policy makers on the relative advantages and disadvantages of the different technology solutions. |
Exploitation Route | These outcomes are already being taken forward and in use to advise businesses and operators on their likely future fleet blends. |
Sectors | Transport |
Description | The findings from this work have been used by the industrial partner Wrightbus as part of their customer advisory toolset. These tools are now used regularly with their customers to understand the energy consumption behaviour from zero emission bus configurations, and to rapidly evaluate changes in vehicle configuration, vehicle again and energy source, resulting in both national and international impact of the work. They have also been used to inform consultations over the last year with Department for Economy on the development of a hydrogen roadmap, and more widely integrating into taught content in the University to help inform future generations of engineers. The toolsets developed in this work have now been used to support public transport operator (Translink) in development of their net zero strategy and to input into the development of new tools and practices which will support net zero operations across NI. Findings of this work have been used to feed into net zero consultation strategies with Northern Ireland Electricity Networks. |
First Year Of Impact | 2020 |
Sector | Education,Energy,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Transport |
Impact Types | Economic,Policy & public services |
Description | Network for Net Zero Strategy |
Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
URL | https://www.nienetworks.co.uk/documents/future-networks/networks-for-zero-net.aspx |
Description | Northern Ireland Electricity Networks - A Future Network for All |
Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
Description | Translink Net Zero |
Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
Description | Advanced Propulsion Centre Advanced Route to Market Demonstrator (ARMD) ARMD20-1016 |
Amount | £999,747 (GBP) |
Funding ID | AMRD 20-1016 |
Organisation | Advanced Propulsion Centre |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 12/2020 |
End | 08/2021 |
Description | Next Generation Fuel-Cell Electric Buses to Accelerate a Low-Carbon Hydrogen Economy |
Amount | £5,558,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | 92503 |
Organisation | Advanced Propulsion Centre |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 06/2021 |
End | 12/2024 |
Description | Northern Ireland Green Seas |
Amount | £398,097 (GBP) |
Funding ID | 10009311 |
Organisation | Innovate UK |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 08/2021 |
End | 03/2022 |
Description | Red Diesel Replacement: Development Of Electric Driven Mobile Aggregate Crusher And Development Of Net Zero Road Map For Mobile Aggregate Processing |
Amount | £434,908 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 05/2022 |
End | 03/2023 |
Title | Battery Electric Bus drivecycle model |
Description | Reconfigurable model of single and double deck battery electric bus which can be used for energy consumption evaluation and foundation for control strategy development. There are a number of associated control strategy algorithms associated with the vehicle as test platforms. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | The model has been used to underpin baseline work in understanding the impact of power electronic components, operating limits and route characteristics on the energy consumption of the battery electric bus vehicles, including the impact of inclusion of future forecasted technologies on their operation. |
Title | Fuel Cell Electric Bus drivecycle model |
Description | Reconfigurable model of single and double deck fuel cell electric bus drivetrain model used to evaluate the energy consumption performance and foundation model for control strategy development. Also used to understand the impact of forecasted technologies on fuel cell vehicle performance. There are a number of associated control strategy algorithms associated with the vehicle as test platforms. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | The model is currently being used for research publications, development of new whole system energy evaluation models and as part of a business advisory toolsets for project partner. |
Title | Net Zero Bus Operation Carbon Intensity model |
Description | Model that has been developed to understand relationship between local energy system carbon intensity, energy unit cost and energy consumption for net zero bus operations. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2022 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | The model has been used in advisory meetings with operators to explore impact of geographic operations/seasonal variation on the carbon intensity of bus operations. |
Description | COP26: Transformative Journey to Decarbonise Public Transport in Northern Ireland |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Panel session at the COP26 conference in Glasgow UK, broadcast through the COP26 YouTube channel and hosted with a live audience discussing the transformation of the NI public transport sector. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zhc4hutZjjw |
Description | Chartered Institution of Highways and Transport -Transport Decarbonisation in Northern Ireland - Next Steps? |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Facilitated Design Sprint exercise with transport professionals (~50) through the Chartered Institution of Highways and Transport on the development of key priority areas for CPD and resource development within the Institution and more broadly |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Code Red for Humanity: The Transition to Clean Transport |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Podcast discussing the changes that will need to be made in our transport sector to achieve wider net zero ambitions |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.qub.ac.uk/social-charter/SocialCharterPodcast/ |
Description | Department for Economy (Northern Ireland) Hydrogen Capability Stakeholder Roundtable |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Stakeholder roundtable to feed into a hydrogen roadmap for the Nothern Ireland region, coordinated through Department for Economy |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Department for Transport Chief Scientific Adviser roundtable discussion |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Roundtable discussion with Chief Scientific Adviser for Department for Transport (Professor Sarah Sharples) to explore the diversity of ongoing net zero transport research activity in Northern Ireland. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Digital DNA Climate X: Moving People: Transitioning Transport to Net Zero |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Discussion session at the live/broadcast DigitalDNA Climate X Event in Belfast, led by Professor Juliana Early and Dr Robert Best |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.digitaldna.org.uk/digital-dna-climate-tech/#/ |
Description | House of Commons Science and Technology Committee |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Formal panel with members of the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee on Transport and Energy related projects ongoing in NI to provide insight and evidence of ahead of Stormont meeting. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Northern Ireland Department for Infrastructure - Innovation, Challenges and Ideation Event - NI Transport Decarbonisation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Workshop focussed on research dissemination and collaborative idea development with Department for Infrastructure (NI) who are responsible for policy development, management and operation of critical transport infrastructure |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Pathway Opportunity Program Summer School |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Widening participation initiative to support students in overcoming barriers to accessing University. Working alongside another EPSRC Post Doc and PhD student, we developed and delivered a condensed course "How to design a zero emission bus". Students were introduced to the fundamentals of quantifying forces on vehicles, calculating peak demands, estimating energy consumption and assessing carbon emissions of operation of battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell double deck buses. They were assessed via group presentation and individual online submission. Feedback gathered was extremely positive, with students enjoying the interactive nature of delivery and the real-world application of engineering principles with more than half of the students stating it was their favourite topic. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Press release: Queen's University pledges multi-million pound sustainability action plan |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Press release outlining the QUB sustainability action plan pledge and the key role that the QUB/Wrightbus partnership has played in this. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.qub.ac.uk/about/sustainability/news/QueensUniversitypledgesmulti-millionpoundsustainabil... |
Description | Smart Belfast Workshop |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Formal working group with members of the Smart Belfast working through (Belfast City Council, Department for Infrastructure) to understand the breadth of research activity ongoing in Northern Ireland and to identify strategic priorities for collaboration. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Winter School Sustainability Summit: The Hydrogen Economy |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Winter school talk and supporting discussion section on the role of hydrogen in supporting future energy transitions. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.qub.ac.uk/International/International-students/Studyabroad/winter-school/ |
Description | eFutures/British Computing Society Material Change: Resourcing Net Zero |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invitation to participate in video covering the advances being made in net zero across the UK, distributed through the British Computing Society and launched at event at the Barbican on the 23rd November 2022 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://netzerodigital.bcs.org/series_partners/efutures-network/ |