The Economic and Social Consequences of Armed Conflict in Colombia: Evidence for Designing Effective Policies in Conflict and Post-Conflict Regions

Lead Research Organisation: Universidad de Los Andes
Department Name: Economics

Abstract

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Description The specific objectives of the study funded by DFID are threefold. The first is to understand the effect that armed conflict has had on entrepreneurial decisions in the manufacturing sector. In particular, how violence affects the exiting of plants, differing the impact by characteristics of plants, type of armed actor and the conflict's level of polarization. The second objective is to explore the effects that armed conflict has had on agricultural production. We disaggregate the impact between direct impacts (conflict-induced shocks) and indirect impacts (armed group presence). We focus on decisions related to allocation of land for production and investment in the land plot. The third aim is to estimate the impact on health outcomes caused by the aerial spraying of herbicides to destroy illicit crops. In particular, we estimate the causal effect of aerial spraying on three outcomes: dermatological problems, respiratory problems and abortion.



1. Impact on manufacturing sector

The results show that the average violence increases the probability of plant exit in 5.06 percentage points. Moreover, we find that this effect differs according to plants characteristics. Specifically, smaller firms in terms of workers and capital used are more likely to exit when civil conflict increases. Results show that violence also has a differential effect according to the firms' age, suggesting that younger firms are affected the most. These results are summarized in the UNU-WIDER working paper 2010-94 and in the forthcoming article in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. Additionally in a follow up paper, we also check whether the characteristic of conflict affect in a different way the exit of firms. Specifically we look at the type of armed actor perpetrating the attacks and the level of polarization of conflict in the municipality where the plant operates.



2. Impact on agricultural production

We find that the effects of conflict go beyond the direct impacts. Because the control and presence of armed groups causes fear and uncertainty, households modify their production decisions. Households living in communities with a large incidence of violence allocate 19.3 percentage point less to permanent crops, 13.7 percentage points more to seasonal crops and 14.6 percentage points more to pastures. The presence of armed groups in the communities is not related to the decision of land use for permanent crops, yet we find a strong association with seasonal crops and pastures. Households living in communities in which armed groups have established presence for four and six years are associated with a higher percentage of land allocated to pastures: 7.7 and 7.3 percentage points, respectively. During armed conflict, households produce low-return crops and invest less on their land plot, thereby generating lower income. Thus, post conflict public policies must go beyond reconstruction and restitution of assets. Policies should also create favorable conditions to reduce uncertainty, improve the rule of law and strengthen trust towards state institutions.



3. Impact on agricultural production

The results show that, on average, a one square kilometer increase in the area sprayed with glyphosate increases by 0.2 percentage points the probability of having a dermatological problem during the following 15 days. Although the medical literature has argued that exposure to glyphosate causes respiratory problems, we do not find any evidence of this effect in our estimations. Regarding abortions, our results indicate that exposure to glyphosate between the three (3) months before conception and the five (5) months after conception, has a positive and significant impact on the probability of occurrence of an abortion. The results from our preferred specification indicate that an increase of one standard deviation in the area sprayed in the municipality of residence increases the probability of an abortion by about 0.025 of a standard deviation.
Exploitation Route Our finding show the impacts of armed conflict upon the civil population are large. Currently, Colombia is implementing a peace process. The finding of the papers produced in this research is being used to craft sound and sustainable post-conflict policies.
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy,Other
 
Description As we previously mentioned, the schedule of the project was delayed significantly due to Martial Law and the intensification of violence in Mindanao. This delayed the schedule of the impact strategy. Despite this, the team organized two events with stakeholders in Mindanao. The first event was a meeting with experts, policy-makers and community members to discuss the objectives of the project and identify the barangays with armed group presence. The second event was a large conference WMSU organized with several stakeholders to present the prelimiinary findings of the project, promote the discussion among participants about the results, and receive feeback. WMSU prepared a report on this conference.
First Year Of Impact 2019
Sector Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment
Impact Types Policy & public services
 
Description Conference, discussion and media presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? Yes
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The presentation of the book triggered a debate among politicians, researchers, policy makers, and others. Colombia is in the process of negotiating peace with the FARC guerrilla. The book and conference therefore sparked important questions about what building a successful post-conflict policy would be like. The results were more widely spread than initially predicted.

After the publication and presentation of the book there has been a lot of discussion about the foreseeable post-conflict period in Colombia. Since the impact of violence has been enormous for the countries' economic, politic, and social development, the public policy approaches that were discussed in the book and conference have given much to talk about.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcNICzUqEDc&list=UU0B5XoeTd110gUIyRpguWvg
 
Description Conflicto y producción agrícola en Colombia 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Primary Audience
Results and Impact During the Conflict Cessions funded with resources from the DFID in the 3rd Congress of Colombian Economy, María Alejandra Arias presented the results of "Conflicto y producción agrícola en Colombia: el efecto de la presencia de grupos armados y choques". Co-Author: Ana María Ibáñez. Here you can find the YouTube link of the presentation.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Conflicto y producción agrícola en Colombia : el efecto de la presencia de grupos armados y choques 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Primary Audience
Results and Impact Conflict session at the 3rd Congress of Colombian Economy. Attendees: 908, Streaming: 890 visits.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity
 
Description Conflicto y producción agrícola en Colombia : el efecto de la presencia de los grupos armados y choques 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Primary Audience
Results and Impact During the Conflict Sessions on the 3rd Congress of Colombian Economy, the document "Conflicto y producción agrícola en Colombia: el efecto de la presencia de grupos armados y choques" was presented by María Alejandra Arias. Ana María Ibáñez (Project Director) is Co-Author.



The Conflict Sessions were funded by DFID.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Fumigación, cultivo de coca y salud : el caso de Colombia 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Primary Audience
Results and Impact During the Conflict Cessions funded with resources from the DFID in the 3rd Congress of Colombian Economy, Daniel Mejía presented the results of "Fumigación, cultivo de coca y salud: el caso de Colombia". Co-Author: Adriana Camacho. Here you can find the YouTube link of the presentation.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Political Note. Social and economic costs of conflict in Colombia: ¿how to build a sustainable post-conflict? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The book "Costos económicos y sociales del conflicto en Colombia ¿Cómo construir un posconflicto sostenible?" was launched with the participation of the media, academia, different political figures and congress members. The study was presented by the economics faculty Dean Ana María Ibáñez and commented by the the High Commissioner for Peace Sergio Jaramillo and the ex presidential candidate Martha Lucía Ramírez.

The book had a wide media reception. It will hopefully have an impact in the Peace Negotiations in Havana. Post-conflict subjects are very relevant in the present peace discussions.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://economia.uniandes.edu.co/investigaciones_y_publicaciones/CEDE/Publicaciones/libros_y_otras_pu...
 
Description Salida de firmas y características del conflicto armado en Colombia 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Primary Audience
Results and Impact During the Conflict Sessions on the 3rd Congress of Colombian Economy, the document "Salida de firmas y características del conflicto armado en Colombia" was presented by Catherine Rodríguez (Co-Researcher). Adriana Camacho and Román Andrés Zárate are Co-Authors.



The Conflict Sessions were funded by DFID.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Salida de firmas y conflicto armado en Colombia 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Primary Audience
Results and Impact During the Conflict Cessions funded with resources from the DFID in the 3rd Congress of Colombian Economy, Caherine Rodríguez presented the results of "Salida de firmas y conflicto armado en Colombia". Co-Author: Adriana Camacho. Here you can find the YouTube link of the presentation.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description The health consequences of aerial spraying of illicit crops : the case of Colombia 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Primary Audience
Results and Impact During the Conflict Sessions on the 3rd Congress of Colombian Economy, the document "The Health Consequences of Aerial Spraying of Illicit Crops: The Case of Colombia" was presented by Daniel Mejía (Co-Researcher). Adriana Camacho (Co-Researcher) is Co-Author.



The Conflict Sessions were funded by DFID.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013