Improving the Communication and Use of Ensemble Flood Predictions

Lead Research Organisation: King's College London
Department Name: Geography

Abstract

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Description This follow-on funding project was designed to support knowledge exchange and the dissemination of lessons from past research rather than the development of new findings as with conventional research. Efforts to distil lessons from the European experience with EFAS resulted in one paper focusing specifically on the communicative and institutional challenges of communicating and using ensemble predictions (EPs), including difficulties in deciphering their informational content, a lack of confidence among operational forecasters across Europe in the ability of 'blue light' emergency services to cope with complex EPs and with forecast uncertainty more generally, and fundamental legal-institutional obstacles to the use of EPs by emergency managers in Napoleonic code countries of Europe where emergency responses are organized around strict legal distinctions between safety and states of emergency that struggle to cope with the uncertainty made explicit by EPs.

Engagement with the Met Office led to new research for the Met Office Public Weather Service Group highlighting specific institutional barriers to taking early and pre-emptive action in response to severe weather warnings. Findings from this piece of focused research were delivered in a report form to the secretariat of the Met Office Public Weather Service Customer Group
Exploitation Route The research will provide the basis for developing decision-support systems to guide the operational use of EPs.
Sectors Environment
 
Description Research has helped improve the design, communication and use of state-of-the-art flooding forecasts - supporting flood planning and responses at local, national and international levels. * In Essex, the research supported the development of a decision-support system used to operate the Colne Flood Barrier. Costly and potentially contentious decisions are now made in a more consistent, risk-informed way by combining state-of-the-art technology with local knowledge. * The Met Office responded to recommendations from this study by increasing the number of Civil Contingencies advisors across the UK, to enhance resilience to major national incidents and respond to real-time emergencies. * In Europe, the research provided evidence of the operational value and limits of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), reinforcing the European Commission's commitment to develop EFAS into a fully operational system. Findings about widespread misunderstanding of EFAS alerts by recipients resulted in help being given in the design and delivery of improved training. Annual EFAS user workshops were arranged to alleviate confusion. Research into the visualisation of ensemble-flood predictions informed several redesigns of the EFAS alert interface. EFAS forecasts can now be represented as hydrographs, helping people to better understand the local significance of alerts. *Two of the researchers have been contracted by the Hydrological Bureau of Anhui Province, China, to integrate ensemble forecasting routines in the Huai River catchment area into existing local systems.
First Year Of Impact 2012
Sector Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Policy & public services
 
Description Application of Novel Early flood Warning and Risk Assessment System (NEWS) to Huai River, China
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Follow-on funding supported a knowledge exchange trip to meet with collaborators in Huai River basin in China to discuss application of NEWS system in Huai River basin. Follow-on funding supported knowledge exchange seminars in China to demonstrate the potential of the NEWS system as well as further research by CoIs Cloke and He to improve its pre-processing routines so as to customize them for local needs at HMBC.
 
Description Developing Decision Support System for Environment Agency
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact The project contributed to the development of a decision-support system to guide EA managers in the operational use of Ensemble Flood Forecasts in operational flood incident management. Follow-on funding for this project supported distillation of findings about the European experience with using EPs and their communication, through a series of briefing visits and seminars, to the EA. As well as identified various practical difficulties in deciphering the informational content of EPs, research also underscored the importance of taking account of various 'soft' factors, such as recent model performance or local concerns about flooding, that might encourage a decision maker to over-ride the advice of the formal decision support calculation of the cost-loss ratio to be expected from a given set of EPs.