Mapping the Structure of International Inequalities and the Poverty-Conflict Nexus

Lead Research Organisation: University College London
Department Name: Political Science

Abstract

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Publications

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Alex Braithwaite (Co-Author) (2011) Mapping the Structure of International Inequalities and the Poverty-Conflict Nexus

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Braithwaite A (2014) Does poverty cause conflict? Isolating the causal origins of the conflict trap in Conflict Management and Peace Science

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Braithwaite A (2014) The Costs of Domestic Political Unrest 1 in International Studies Quarterly

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Hudson D (2014) Handbook of the International Political Economy of Governance

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Niheer Dasandi (Author) (2012) Poverty and the Interaction of Inequality Between and Within Countries: A Quantitative Analysis of World Poverty, 1980-2007

 
Description Our key findings:



1. Poverty (whether measured as greater infant mortality or as lower per capita income) is strongly associated with the onset of civil conflict. Once we account for the endogeneity of the poverty-conflict relationship [see key finding 2, below], a country with a poverty level equal to the average level for that of the poorest 10 percent of countries (IMR _ 114 per 1000) has a 0.061 (6.1%) probability of experiencing civil conflict onset. By contrast, the probability of conflict onset in a country that has a poverty rate equal to that of the richest 10 percent of countries (IMR _ 7) is only 0.5%. (Braithwaite et al, under review).



2. Network position serves as a strong instrument for poverty. The results of the analysis, in which we instrument for the endogenous poverty, are consistent and substantively non-trivial. Accordingly, we have uncovered strong evidence in support of our test hypothesis, demonstrating that poverty plays a causal role in the onset of civil conflict. (Braithwaite et al, under review).



3. Conflicts between domestic challengers and governments are detrimental to economic markets (foreign investment) only when violent and unsuccessful. A long literature has failed to uncover a consistent relationship between domestic conflict and inflows of FDI, despite clear evidence from investors that they are deterred by conflict. We demonstrate that this null finding stems from the conflation of the tactics and outcomes of domestic conflicts. (Braithwaite et al, forthcoming 2014).



4. Policy and academic work neglect structural analysis of poverty and conflict. A review of relevant literature and the work of national and international agencies confirmed an initial premise of the research project: structural explanations are under-researched in development and conflict studies and the relevant areas of pubic policy and practitioner work. (Hudson and Dasandi 2014, forthcoming).
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Healthcare
 
Title UK Data Service Dsicover 
Description Network Position of States within the International Trade Network 1980-2008 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2015 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact NA 
URL http://reshare.ukdataservice.ac.uk/850739/