Understanding the impact of recession on labour market behaviour in Britain
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Essex
Department Name: Inst for Social and Economic Research
Abstract
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Organisations
Publications
Bryan M
(2017)
Couples' Labour Supply Responses to Job Loss: Growth and Recession Compared
in The Manchester School
Bryan M L
(2015)
Getting back into work after job loss: the role of partner effects
Burdett K
(2016)
Wage inequality: A structural decomposition
in Review of Economic Dynamics
Burdett K
(2015)
Wage Inequality
Burdett K
(2015)
The Cost of Job Loss
Carlos Carrillo-Tudela
(2014)
The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the U.K.
Carlos Carrillo-Tudela
(2013)
Unemployment and endogenous reallocation over the business cycle
Carlos Carrillo-Tudela
(2013)
Unemployment and endogenous reallocation over the business cycle
Carlos Carrillo-Tudela
(2011)
Unemployment and endogenous reallocation over the business cycle
Carlos Carrillo-Tudela
Unemployment and endogenous reallocation over the business cycle
| Description | The overarching aim of the research programme was to "comprehensively explore the immediate and longer-term impacts of economic recession on the labour market behaviour of individuals and households in Britain." We highlight three main findings. 1. The scarring effect of job loss and recession on future labour market prospects: We have made both theoretical and empirical advances in our understanding of the long-term effects of job loss and recession on workers' wages and employment experiences (grant objective 2). This proceeded by the development of a theoretical framework to analyse the effects of human capital accumulation, job mobility and their interactions on labour market outcomes. Burdett et al. (2015) use this framework to study the long-term cost of job loss for young workers in the UK, allowing for the impact of within-firm careers. We find that low skilled workers suffer higher overall wage losses relative to high skilled workers. For both skill groups, the effects of human capital are large and generate a permanent scarring in wages. Wage losses associated with job mobility and within firm careers eventually disappear but it takes around 10 years for both skill groups. Additional analysis by Taylor (2013) focuses on young people and the effects of leaving education in a recession. He also finds that young men experience scarring effects of up to ten years in terms of lower employment, poorer quality jobs, and reduced wages. Taking a long-term view, Tumino (2015) shows that the scarring impact of unemployment on future employability was as bad in 2010 as in the early 90s recession. 2. The impact of recession on children's aspirations: Our research on young people (grant objective 3) extended beyond objective outcomes to consider the impact of recession on school students' aspirations and attitudes towards continuing in education. Taylor and Rampino (2014) find that higher unemployment leads to lower aspirations and attitudes among children whose parents themselves are less positive about education, but there is no effect on children with parents who view education positively. The results highlight the danger that recessions may set off an intergenerational downward spiral of low aspirations. 3. How households cope with job loss and recession: We have advanced our understanding of the strategies households use to cope with the shocks associated with recession (grant objective 5). A novel multiple-methods approach that combines quantitative analysis of large-scale survey data with a qualitative analysis of 30 couple members gives us both a representative overview of households' reactions to recession and a deeper understanding of the processes and meaning behind household behaviour (Laurie et al 2015). Contrary to models predicting that when a partner loses their job their spouse takes on more work to compensate, we find that couples are reluctant to depart from their established gender roles and norms (Gush et al 2015a, Bryan and Longhi 2013). Rather, couples resort to a complex mix of cutting selected expenditure, running down savings and relying on other family members. Having a partner already in employment greatly speeds the return to (high quality) work by the original earner (Bryan and Longhi 2015), and family financial support, advice and contacts help the job seeker secure a job that is right for them (Gush et al 2015b). References Burdett Ken, Carrillo-Tudela Carlos, and Coles Melvyn (2015), "The Cost of Job Loss", ISER Working Paper 2015-12. Bryan Mark L and Longhi Simonetta (2013), "Couples' Labour Supply Responses to Job Loss: Boom and Recession Compared", ISER Working Paper 2013-20. Bryan Mark L and Longhi Simonetta (2015), "Getting back into work after job loss: the role of partner effects", ISER Working Paper 2015-11. Gush Karon, Scott James and Laurie Heather (2015a) "Households' responses to spousal job loss: 'all change' or 'carry on as usual'?" Work, Employment and Society, doi: 10.1177/0950017014556411 Gush Karon, Scott James and Laurie Heather (2015b), "Job Loss and Social Capital: The role of family, friends and wider support networks", ISER Working Paper 2015-07. Laurie Heather, Gush Karon, Scott James, Bryan Mark L, Longhi Simonetta (2015), "Understanding the added worker effect: A multiple methods interpretation", ISER Working Paper 2013-20. Taylor Mark (2013), "The labour market impacts of leaving education when unemployment is high: Evidence from Britain", ISER Working Paper 2013-12. Taylor Mark and Rampino Tina (2014), "Educational aspirations and attitudes over the business cycle", Economica, 81(324): 649-673. Tumino, Alberto (2013), "The scarring effect of unemployment from the early '90s to the Great Recession", ISER Working Paper 2015-05, Colchester: University of Essex. |
| Exploitation Route | Our findings are relevant to a wide range policy makers, third sector organisations and businesses. For instance, our research on the adverse consequences of recession on young people has implications for policies, such as work skills and training, to ensure that this generation does not suffer the long-term consequences that young people have faced following previous recessions. Potentially interested Government departments include HM Treasury, the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, Department for Education, and Department for Work and Pensions. The findings are also relevant to those social enterprises and charities involved in delivering government initiatives such as the Work Programme, to private sector employers who provide apprenticeships, and to learning providers such as learndirect. Our research into couples' coping strategies following job loss is relevant to policy aimed at reducing the numbers of workless households and poverty more generally, as well as to specific initiatives to support jobseekers back into work. Interested organisations include the DWP, TUC, Jobcentre Plus and National Careers Service. Via direct contacts, workshops and policy events we have already established continuing links with many of these stakeholders, with more general dissemination via the ISER webpages, newsletters, podcasts and social media. |
| Sectors | Education,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| URL | https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/projects/recession |
| Description | The overarching aim of the research programme was to "comprehensively explore the immediate and longer-term impacts of economic recession on the labour market behaviour of individuals and households in Britain." In our previous report we highlighted three key sets of findings on: the scarring effect of job loss and recession on future labour market prospects; the impact of recession on children's aspirations; and household reactions to job loss and recession. Our impact and outreach activity was focussed on disseminating these three key sets of findings as widely as possible while also targetting specific stakeholder groups where appropriate. Throughout, we have sought to influence multiple audiences: policy makers, third and private sector, academics and the general public. Below we summarise our principal impact initiatives. **Stakeholder events** Reaching out via stakeholder events was at the core of our impact strategy. We were involved in 4 events, each aimed at a distinct audience. The first event, in March 2013, was based around our research on young people's aspirations. It was mainly aimed at engaging with the charity sector, and their clients, as well as interested policy makers and opinion formers. The event included a panel discussion by young people from the charity Rathbone who reflected on their aspirations and ambitions growing up in Recession Britain - and we were thus able to relate our research to the real experiences of people on the ground. The second event was held at the Work Foundation, London, in June 2014, and focussed on the effects of recession on young people's labour market prospects and outcomes. The format was a roundtable discussion of invited specialists and practitioners, including a large employer and provider of apprenticeships (BT), social enterprises and charities involved in Work Programme, and local government representatives. Our findings formed the basis for a wide-ranging discussion on the steps needed to ensure that this generation does not suffer the long-term consequences that young people have faced following previous recessions. The interaction was two-way, and new avenues for policy-relevant research also emerged, for instance the potential role of vocational skills and apprenticeships (as opposed to an exclusive focus on university education). In October 2014, we gave an invited presentation to the HM Treasury Labour Market Conference 2014 as part of a panel discussion on Young people in the Labour Market. The conference is a key event in the HMT calendar that allows interaction between academics and policy makers. As such it allowed a very focussed discussion the implication of our research in terms of education and training policy, and how it relates to international and charity initiatives (other panel participants were from the OECD and Prince's Trust). Finally, in November 2015, we gave an invited presentation at a one-day event on The State of Social Capital in Britain, organised by Understanding Society (with the National Council for Voluntary Organisations and Cooperative Councils Innovation Network). The event was part of the ESRC Festival of Social Science and was aimed at groups including social action pioneers, public service reformers, policy advisors and social enterprises. Over 50 people attended and were able to link our qualitative research on the importance of social connections in job seeking with wider debates about social capital among practitioners. **Closed discussions with policy makers** As well as broad dissemination events, we had a number of closed discussions with with HMT advisers. These allowed us to go into much more detail about our research and engage two-way exchanges about its relevance to current policy challenges as well as avenues for future policy-relevant research. In one meeting we also commented on related research that HMT is conducting (on households in recession), so there was fruitful interaction between researchers across the academia-policy divide. After all of these meetings, HMT noted how valuable they had found them in terms of informing their work on labour markets. **Dissemination to the wider public** As well as targeted stakeholder events, we showcased our results via the project webpage. In addition to full versions of all working papers, the page includes accessible non-technical summaries of all outputs, podcast interviews, and a link to our event at the Work Foundation, which also hosted a blog about the research. We have also recently been invited to appear on Radio 4's long-running "Thinking Allowed" programme (due to air in early March 2016), to talk about our qualitative research on households in recession. A related article has just appeared in the Conversation online news magazine. **Impact among the wider academic community** As well as interactions with academics at our stakeholder events, we have presented our findings at many scientific conferences in the UK and internationally, thus contributing to the progress of our understanding of the consequences of recession. In addition, based on the data collection for our research on households in recession, we have produced a qualitative dataset of interviews with households who experienced job loss. This dataset has been deposited with the UK Data Service for download by other researchers (under Special Licence). Hence we have laid the foundations for further work to extend our understanding of how households coped with the recession by providing resource for others to exploit. |
| Sector | Education,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Societal,Economic,Policy & public services |
| Title | Understanding Couples' Experiences of Job Loss in Recessionary Britain - A Linked Qualitative Study, 2008-2013 |
| Description | To understand the processes and motivations behind changes in labour market behaviour during periods of economic recession, this research project recorded the experiences and views of couple-households exposed to job loss in the Great Recession. Conducted as part of a larger ESRC-funded quantitative project, qualitative interviews were carried out with a purposive sample derived from the Understanding Society Innovation Panel. (The Understanding Society Innovation Panel is an annual panel survey that collects a wide range of information about the economic and social circumstances of those living in 1500 households across Britain.)Using the wealth of longitudinal information in the Understanding Society Innovation Panel, a sampling frame of approximately 150 couple households was identified where someone had either lost their job or was working reduced hours in the period 2008 to 2011. A carefully selected sample of 17 households were followed up and in-depth interviews were conducted with the couple-member who had experienced job loss and, where possible, their partner. The selection process was designed to assemble a sample reflecting a diverse range of household and family profiles; namely, couples with and without children, older and younger children; the pre-retirement phase; a range of incomes; and labour market areas across England more and less affected by the recession. Wherever feasible, partners were interviewed separately to allow each participant the opportunity to express their personal views most freely. Overall this led to 30 interviews, each of about 45 minutes in length. Fieldwork took place between October 2012 and February 2013and consent was obtained verbally. The research design incorporates the ability to link the interview transcripts to Understanding Society Innovation Panel survey data for future combined analysis of qualitative and quantitative material, subject to Special Licence. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2015 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Gush K, Scott J and Laurie H (2015) Households' responses to spousal job loss: 'all change' or 'carry on as usual'? Work, Employment & Society, 29 (5): 703-719. Gush K, Scott J and Laurie H (2015) 'Job loss and social capital: the role of family, friends and wider support networks.' ISER Working Paper Series, 2015-07. Colchester: Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex. Laurie H, Gush K, Scott J, Bryan ML and Longhi S (2015) 'Understanding the added worker effect: a multiple methods interpretation.' ISER Working Paper Series, 2015-04 Colchester: Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex. |
| URL | http://discover.ukdataservice.ac.uk |
| Description | Discussion with HM Treasury officials about unemployment scarring and early interventions |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Professor Mark Taylor discussed the evidence base on unemployment scarring and early interventions with economists and policy analysts from the HM Treasury Labour Market and Distributional Analysis team (Harriet Dew, Tom Wickersham, Anouka Dhadda). (2 hour phone conversation.) n/a |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
| Description | For Some Luck Matters More |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | This talk discussed the impact of the Great Recession on Early Careers of Graduates from Different Socio-Economic Backgrounds. This was an academic presentation and its main aim was to share information about our study with fellow researchers. The talk generated interesting feedback. The talk was given at the ESRC seminar series on Social Mobility in Bath, April 27th 2015 n/a |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
| Description | Growing Up in Recession event (London) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | New research showing the impact of growing up in the Recession will be presented to an audience of policy makers, opinion formers and academics at an event chaired by Lucy Rock from The Observer in London on Friday 15 March. Mark Taylor, Professor of Economics at the Institute for Social and Economic Research, presents new research on the impact of the macroeconomic climate on educational aspirations and attitudes of 11-15 year olds. Jonathan Wadsworth, Professor of Economics at Royal Holloway, University of London questions whether the outcomes of this recession on the youth labour market are unprecedented. Richard Dorsett, Director of Policy Evaluation at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, examines the importance of early labour market experiences in young people's transitions into employment and illustrates how this can help the design of interventions aimed at improving young people's employment prospects. The charity Rathbone will present a panel of young people from Bury and Chorley to reflect on their experiences, aspirations and ambitions growing up in Recession Britain. Rathbone is the UK-wide voluntary youth sector organisation providing opportunities for young people to transform their life-circumstances by re-engaging with learning, discovering their ability to succeed and achieving progression to further education, training and employment. Engagement and exchange between charity sector and academics |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
| URL | https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/2013/03/11/young-people-living-through-the-recession |
| Description | HMT workshop - 16th Feb 2015 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Discussion with HMT advisors about results of research into couple reactions to job loss (separate projects carried out by ISER and HMT). This generated exchanges on policy areas of interest to both ISER and the Treasury. HMT advisors present: Melanie Pitt, Doug Rendle, Louise Hellem, Andrew Keep, Alasdair Hawkins, Tom Waters. Links were established to continue exchanging information in the future. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
| Description | Live Radio 4 interview on 'Thinking Allowed' |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Invited to appear live on Radio 4's Thinking Allowed to discuss an article I co-authored and had appeared in the journal Work Employment and Society entitled 'Households' responses to spousal job loss: 'all change' or 'carry on as usual'?'. The programme's presenter, Laurie Taylor, and I discussed the key points of the research. This would have reached not only the Radio 4 listenership at the time of airing but, as the programme offers an extensive back-catalogue of episodes available for download, it should be available for many years to come. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
| URL | http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b071vjrk |
| Description | Piece by Sheena Grant in the East Anglian Daily Times ""Is there anything which can make men do housework - even if they are out of work?" |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | This is an article that discusses the approaches taken by couples when faced with the prospect of unemployment in light of research carried out with co-authors. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
| URL | http://www.eadt.co.uk/news/is_there_anything_which_can_make_men_do_housework_even_if_they_are_out_of... |
| Description | Piece for The Conversation: 'Why we stick our heads in the sand about the risk of unemployment' |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | This is an article that discusses the approaches taken by couples when faced with the prospect of unemployment in light of research carried out with co-authors. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
| URL | https://theconversation.com/why-we-stick-our-heads-in-the-sand-about-the-risk-of-unemployment-54982 |
| Description | Podcast discussing how couples respond when one loses a job |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | As an online talk, the podcast attracted at least 922 'views' via social media outlets. Feedback via social media indicated that audience members found the podcast stimulating, thought provoking and 'profound'. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
| URL | https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/podcasts/iser/2014/08 |
| Description | Presentation of research on young people and the recession to officials from HM Treasury |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presentation of research on young people and the recession to officials from HM Treasury (as part of MiSoC research presentation to HMT at ISER). Subsequent invitation to present at HMT Labour Market Conference, 3 October 2014. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
| Description | The long shadow of recession (podcast) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Online discussion of impacts of recession on young people and others. The podcast was shared via social media. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
| URL | https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/podcasts/iser/2014/06 |
| Description | What kind of social connections matter (in the context of job seeking)? |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | Yes |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards After my talk various delegates spoke to me during the coffee and lunch breaks about the points raised in my presentation. Some of these points were subsequently further discussed in the plenary session. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
| URL | https://www.understandingsociety.ac.uk/2015/11/17/presentations-for-social-capital |
| Description | Young people in the recession and beyond |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | HM Treasury Labour Market Conference 2014 - Invited 10-minute presentation on young people in the recession from the ISER Recession project. Part of a panel discussion on Young people in the Labour Market. n/a |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
| Description | Young people in the recovery: from false starts to rewarding careers - policy event at Work Foundation, London |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | End-of-programme policy event held at the Work Foundation, 4th June 2014. Presentation of research on the impacts of high unemployment on young people's educational aspirations and decisions, and their subsequent experiences in the labour market. Format was a roundtable discussion involving policy makers, academics, charity sector and business leaders. Discussion focussed on the research and the steps to ensure that this generation does not suffer the long-term consequences that young people have faced following previous recessions. Participants included LGA, CBI, DWP, BT, social enterprises and charities involved in Work Programme. Accompanied by blog post on Work Foundation site: http://www.theworkfoundation.com/blog/1874/The-long-shadow-of-recession Interchange of ideas between researchers and policy/practitioner communities. Highlighted importance of apprenticeships and not just FE/HE as a route to sustainable jobs for young people - a topic often neglected in academic research. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
| URL | http://www.theworkfoundation.com/Events/343/Young-people-in-the-recovery-from-false-starts-to-reward... |