The Future of American Power

World order has been defined for a generation by the scale of the United States' superiority in power relative to other nations. This has been manifested in many forms. US military spending has exceeded that of all competitors combined, while its mastery of advanced technology has magnified that advantage. As the world's largest economy, its consumption has driven global growth, while its financial institutions have defined the shape of the global economic architecture. Its culture and ideas, from consumer brands to liberal ideals of economic and political freedom, have dominated in the global contest for influence. The distribution of power upon which all this rests, however, may be changing.

There have been several cycles of debate over recent decades in which predictions were made of 'American decline' only to be contradicted by events. Today, however, the gravity of the United States' difficulties combined with the conspicuous rise of new powers present reason to suspect that this time is different. The world order may be about to enter new phase, less defined by US power, with profound implications for America itself, allies such as the UK, and others. If the United States is to become less powerful and others more so, does this mean a period of peaceful transition, of troubling potential for conflict, or of the careful balancing of cooperation and competition?

The core objectives of this seminar series will be to establish with clarity and precision the trends unfolding with regard to US power, drawing out the most significant implications for strategic policy thinking, and ensure the dissemination of the series' findings in a way that maximises impact. At present, discussion of American decline too often generates arguments that appear to talk past one another, failing to establish an agreed framework for empirical and intellectual progress. This series will begin by clearing the ground for enquiry by separating out the rival conceptions of 'power' at work in present debates, deciding which can be made serviceable as basis for further enquiry, and establishing appropriate means for assessing US trajectory. It will then proceed to an evidence-based enquiry into likely shifts in the extent of US power, considered in both national and structural terms, while placing these considerations in the context of rising powers.

The series will bring together established and early-career scholars from the UK, US, Europe and rising powers, as well as policy professionals from government and civil society, to form an active research network. Its primary output will be a Report on the Future of American Power, together with a series of shorter interim reports and audiovisual material arising from series events. Throughout the series it will be a key objective to engage stakeholders in the policy community both inside and outside government, and provide the public with opportunities to access outputs and feed into deliberations. This will be achieved through a comprehensive communications strategy involving both traditional media and social media (Facebook, Twitter). It is intended that the networks established by this project will outlive the series.

This series will be original in the thoroughness with which it assembles and interrogates the different strands of thought on the appropriate conception of 'power' while connecting this with the debate on US decline, which has hitherto been stymied by failure to cohere around an agreed set of standards. It will also be unique in the comprehensiveness with which it proceeds to provide concrete assessment of how US power is changing in both quantity and quality. The results of this enquiry will be of relevance to those with responsibility for strategic planning in foreign policy, defence and trade within government, the private sector, and civil society, who require better analysis of these trends in order to make evidence-based decisions in service of the national interest.

The seminar series will produce and disseminate a clear, detailed and evidenced assessment of trends American relative power. Its proceedings and findings will thus be of significant value to those sectors of society for whom it is necessary to have long-term strategic foresight regarding the global distribution of power and the structure of the international environment. This dovetails with the important 'rising powers' agenda, which represents another facet of the same process.

1. UK government departments.
- Foreign & Commonwealth Office
- Ministry of Defence
The primary users and beneficiaries of the series would be government officials with responsibility for grand strategy, relations with the United States, or regions and policy areas theatres where US power is significant. Interest from the FCO in such research has already been expressed through their academic liaison officer, who will of course be invited to attend all events.

2. Policy research organisations within the UK, US and abroad.
This encompasses think-tanks such as Chatham House, RUSI, IISS. It also includes professional associations, chiefly the British International Studies Association, of which the Principal Applicant is an executive committee member and which is chaired by a Co-Applicant (Parmar), and its US Foreign Policy working group, which is convened by the PA. Engagement through the series would serve to build and sustain links between these organisations, enhancing national research capacity on a topic of key strategic priority.

3. US Government and foreign policy community.
Because of its US focus, series outputs will have relevance to the American policy community, and also to a range of other governments for whom the shifting distribution of power is significant. This will contribute not only to better-informed policymaking among our allies, but will also boost the UK's reputation as a source of internationally policy-relevant research of the highest quality. It will also promote ties between UK researchers and their home institutions and those of other nations, most especially the United States, e.g. with universities such as George Washington University and Boston University with which Warwick already has close formal links.

5. The commercial and financial sector.
This includes defence and associated export industries, as well as banks, trading firms, etc., involved in activities dependent upon international distribution of power. Series outputs, including assessments of defence spending trends and areas of economic growth and contraction, will provide valuable inputs for strategic assessment of market trends. This could also enhance esteem for UK political science in the commercial sector by demonstrating the viability of academic institutional collaboration as a source of concretely useful analysis.

6. Media covering international affairs.
This includes print (Times, Guardian, Telegraph), news weeklies (Economist) and those smaller publications devoted exclusively to foreign affairs (Foreign Policy), as well as radio (BBC R4) and television (Newsnight, C4 News), and new media, such as foreign policy blogs (e.g. Washington Note). All have a record of attendance at UK-based foreign and security policy conferences, especially at LSE and Chatham House. The series will engage the media both through attendance at series events presenting opportunities for direct reportage, and via written outputs and ongoing social media updates on proceedings. This will contribute to informed coverage of important international trends.

7. The general public.
The series will seek to engage the public in its work through a comprehensive communication strategy (see Pathways), raising awareness of key issues and seeking to elevate and inform public discourse. This will be aided by engagement with NGOs, civil society and social movements, e.g. British American Security Information Council, the 'Occupy' movement, Stop the War Coalition.