Demand Modelling and Predictive Police Positioning for Effective Service Provision

In today's society where economic pressures mean resources are being squeezed, the end outcome of a valued service is still necessary. Being able to allocate staff as required and making the best use of these resources is critical for the longevity of business. For the emergency services, in particular the Police Force, making the best use of the resources, namely the Local Police Officers, that respond to demand from calls from the public, requires optimal positioning (location setting) to facilitate the response minimizing time to reach the incident, minimizing the risk of failure to reach target arrival times and maximizing the visibility to the public. These locations need to reflect the 'hot spots' for such demand calls. For a more enhanced service provision and the need to be visible these hot spots need to be routes, rather than stationary points, which will vary depending on the time of day, day of the week and month of the year. At the same time the personnel involved need some stability in terms of being able to practically manage their shift.
Within this research proposal, the use of historical data, as well as predictive modelling tools, are used to facilitate the best strategy to allocate and position staff based on the prescribed demand for Police Officers. This will require methods of facility location to be extended to deal with real time, variable and static positioning, in a changing and uncertain environment. The modelling tool to be generated will provide an automated mechanism to produce optimal Officer location positioning, with the ability to facilitate stationary and predictive patrol routes to maximize the ability to meet demand in the shortest amount of time. This level of sophistication is not currently seen within the force. For the Police to have the predictive capability coupled with the most optimal response serves to alleviate fears of society as to the role of Police with regards to crime. The potential impact on Crime is immense.

This research proposal responds directly to the imperative needs of the industrial collaborator, Leicestershire Constabulary. Given the huge budget cuts that are in place, there is a fundamental need to evaluate current working practices and make changes as appropriate. Without a mechanism to make informed decisions, the end result is potentially incorrect leading to a detrimental effect on incidence demand attendance and service provision to crime and costly, both financially and publically. Though this work is primarily with Leicestershire, this has the potential for all UK Forces to address their Local Police Officer working practices to formulate future policies for operation to maximise effectiveness within resource constraints. In addition there is scope that the methods of the research can be applied to other emergency services, i.e. the ambulance service or fire services.

In addition the algorithms that are to be developed within the proposal will allow optimal positioning of resources (in a changing environment), hence their application can be envisaged for services which exhibit these uncertain circumstances such as large scale events, an example would be the London Marathon where placement of water stations and emergency response is paramount. Also the algorithms would be suitable for application in military applications where positioning of resources for soldiers is key to the success of their missions, or locations of spares and resources for military aircraft on missions abroad. Disaster zones also could benefit from adopting the methods in terms of identifying where to location necessary equipment. There is potential to have huge industrial impact with resulting societal impacts.

This research is borne from the demand set by the public for the requirement of the emergency service provider of the Police force. As the aim of the research is to affect the working practice of Police Officers, minimizing the risk of failing to meet demand, minimizing the time to attend incidents, and hopefully adding to the potential to reduce crime by increasing visibility, there is direct positive impact on society. This ultimately should improve quality of life in these demand situations. For the Police to have the predictive capability coupled with the most optimal response serves to alleviate fears of society as to the role of Police with regards to crime.

The economic benefit of this is the sustainability of the Police force to be able to offer the same or better level of service as they currently provide, under extreme enforced resource constraints. Also the research will serve to set new guidelines and procedural practices for Local Police Officers, one to improve their own working performance and secondly also that of the Force as a whole.

Given the research nature of the project, not only will existing techniques be applied in this novel domain but advances in techniques also developed. These advances will have applications to related industrial disciplines. The aim is to also hopefully enthuse the minds of others to future grow and develop this field of research, where such optimal service level performance can be achieved within tight resource constraints.