Google: The Role of Internet Search in Elections in Established and Challenged Democracies

Lead Research Organisation: University of Glasgow
Department Name: Adam Smith Research Foundation

Abstract

How do search engines contribute to voter knowledge in elections? Social scientists have long noted that informed citizens are critical to sustaining democracy, while authoritarian regimes are marked by their control of information flow. While the internet in general, and search engines in particular, provide new and unprecedented ways for citizens to access information, there has been little specific research into how voters employ search engines as they carry out the democratic task of gathering information in election campaigns. This is a particularly important question, as search engine results themselves will come to reflect and prioritize citizen preferences. Do citizens in established democracies search in ways that differ from those in newer democracies? What sorts of search terms - candidates, parties, ideas, values, religions or other themes - do they favour? Do search patterns tend to direct citizens into information 'cocoons' or 'trajectories' with a narrow range of traditional information sources such as party websites and dominant media outlets or does search engine behaviour tend to continually expose individuals to a broad range of political messages? Through a transnational study of search engine behaviour, primarily gathered via Google Trends, this project will use the power of search choices and popularity to examine how and when people are choosing to gather information in elections ranging from relatively routine in the United States to the potentially destabilising in Iran. Through comparing how citizens in established democracies (the United Kingdom and the United States), challenged democracies (Italy) and transitional states (Egypt, Russia and Iran) use search engines in election campaigns, this project will reveal how search engines function in the dissemination of information during critical political events. We will combine methods and approaches across political communication research, with a focus on sociology, political science and media studies.

Planned Impact

Academic Impact

Enhancing the knowledge economy: systematic analysis of search data, incorporated into existing knowledge and models of voting behaviour in cross-national perspective, offers a new layer of perspective and understanding about how citizens inform themselves in elections.

Worldwide academic advancement: This project looks at six different countries with various regime types to offer ideas and theories about voter behaviour and information gathering across a range of societies. This can offer valuable insights on how to improve electoral democracy (by creating more informed citizens and more balanced information spheres) in a range of societies.

The development and utilisation of new and innovative methodologies, etc: Taking search data as the 'spine' of the project, the researchers will use a range of approaches from across political science, sociology and media studies to integrate search data as another useful layer of how we understand citizen behaviour in elections. The innovation comes mostly from the approach - i.e. conceptualising how to include large pools of data that are publically created via search/Google.

Contributing to the health of a discipline: It is hoped that this project will serve as a template to scholars as to how online data augments, rather than threatens, traditional scholarship.

Delivering and training highly skilled researchers: At a local level, the grant principals and our RA will be learning important new skills in how to analyse online data. More importantly, we will disseminate that information (through academic publications and presentations) to academics in general, particularly via our commitment to open data access (as discussed in our data management plan).

All of this impact is delivered via academic publication and presentations, as well as via information posted on line and podcasts (to widen dissemination).

Economic and Societal Impact

Contributing toward evidence-based policy making and influencing public policies and legislation AND Shaping and enhancing the effectiveness of public services: We believe that by showing the differential patterns of search in elections that governments of different countries (under study for this project are the United Kingdom, United States, Italy, Iran, Egypt and Russia) can gain insights into the ways in which citizens seek knowledge during campaigns. This can highlight where there are perhaps deficiencies in mainstream information; it may also suggest to governments that they need more pro-active campaigns to educate voters about their rights (and responsibilities).

Enhancing the research capacity, knowledge and skills of businesses and organisations: We believe that our project can show Google, as a corporation, an important aspect of how their business model of search contributes to voter education. We hope that this type of research can even suggest useful ways to tweak or re-tool some search engines in elections (perhaps by having a Google Election engine).
 
Description This project interrogated the role of search engines in a shifting information environment - a 'new media ecology' - in contributing to voter knowledge. Our findings challenge existing cross-media political information research (around Twitter and television, for example) in illuminating the dynamics of the ebb and flow between demand and offer in the contemporary political information market, i.e. what citizens are interested in hearing about and what politicians and traditional media outlets are willing to discuss. Our research captured the comparative public and political discursive frissance around election events finding important differences in the modulations between mainstream offerings and user searches over time and in different national contexts.

It was this nexus - identifying traceable moments in elections - that revealed the links among search, other media, campaigns and public opinion more broadly. In other words we reverse engineered the research process through taking political gaffes and other mainstream-media directed events to provide a lens for looking at search in elections. This is the game-changer with our project's findings: a paradigm shift in how we can and should look at the intersecting and repelling relationship between media and politics and to question what it means to be 'political' at elections.

Despite a pervasive sense of transformation of political communication in the era of social media and 'big data' political communication research has concentrated increasingly on user-generated content and direct online interactions between citizens and elected representatives. However, our findings show how voters and politicians do not operate in a vacuum, but rather how they share a single informational space with established print and broadcast outlets, which continue to perform as crucial news providers.

Our four country case study findings are briefly summarised here:
Egypt:
Search trends here focused much more frequently on protest leaders and dissent actions than the key 2012 presidential elections or on campaign gaffes or scandals for example. These informational trajectories suggest a populace reflecting an on-going revolution with significant distrust of traditional news media outlets and of a constestation of the role of powerful actors (in this context, principally the military). In this way we found Egyptian-based citizens using the internet as a truly alternative source of information. Furthermore, this indicates that the masses involved in Egypt's mobilisation against Mubarak are suspicious of seemingly imported democratic arrangements modelled on Western constitutions and determined instead to pursue their own form of self-government.
UK:
Search spikes in this context were associated with gaffes and other key episodes suggesting a use of search engines that is primarily reactive and influenced by traditional mainstream news media reports. For example, the then PM Gordon Brown's 2010 "bigoted woman" gaffe has been highlighted as a UK general election turning point in specialist scholarly literature. However, we did not find evidence of search behaviour showing a subsequent 'thematic leap' from the initial frenzy of interest to an opening up voter interest in searching for immigration issues, for example. This supports a hypothesis of a more reductive outcome in reinforcing mainstream news focus on personality as against policy issues.
US:
Search trends here did focus on the key candidiates and the election process. However, particularly revealing was the thematic leap made by searchers from seemingly trivial episodes (e.g. laughing at gaffes such as Mitt Romney's 'binders full of women') to exploring online broader issues, in this case gender equity.
This shows a tendency for users to engage with topics 'of their own', potentially influencing the news media (and campaign) agenda, representing for us a genuinely new and reflexive cycle of political information trajectories.
Italy:
Search data around the 2013 Italian Parliament elections revealed a disjunture between a powerful mainstream media dominated by Berlusconi's private life and TV appearances that were powerful catalysts for the demand of online political information, and a massive growth in searches for information about comedian-cum-activist Beppe Grillo and his Five Star Movement (M5S). Although the latter appears to mark a decline in influence for traditional print and broadcast media, we see this as more of a consolidation of celebrity populism as the 'new norm' in Italian politics. In other words the Italian case again marks another type of confluence of established or mainstream, and emergent media, in their uses and influences around elections.
Exploitation Route Contribution to voter education:
Our findings show that a potentially important aspect of Google's business model of search contributes to voter education across country boundaries and that national culture and events shape the uses of their service.
We hope our findings could be potentially used by Google to even suggest ways to tweak or re-tool some search engines in elections (perhaps by having a Google Election engine).

Contribution to journalism/journalism education
As the presentation at a conference for working journalists and journalism educators above shows, Google Analytics can be a powerful knowledge tool for news. We intend to continue to disseminate how journalists can use Google Analytics in reporting and analysing news via the Philip Merrill College of Journalism at the University of Maryland (where one of the project participants is a professor).

Contribution to social-science research tools
Aside from the specific findings of the project, this work has produced a robust methodology for including search analytics in student and professional research. The process has been taught in four undergraduate and graduate classes at the University of Maryland (JOUR698X, JOUR698L, HONR278E, and JOUR800). Undergraduate and graduate students have used search analytics in their assessed work.

Contributing toward evidence-based policy making and influencing public policies and legislation at a local, regional, national and international level AND shaping and enhancing the effectiveness of public services:
By drawing upon our revelations of differential patterns of search in elections, governments of different countries could usefully direct our insights into the ways in which citizens seek knowledge during campaigns to shaping media literacy strategies and policies. Thus a tentative use would be in the development of more pro-active campaigns to educate voters about their rights (and responsibilities) in using search to make thematic leaps as a means of critical engagement with mainstream news coverage of elections and election events.
Sectors Education,Government, Democracy and Justice,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections,Security and Diplomacy

 
Description Project team members presented project aims and findings at the Google launch workshop of the 4 April 2013 and the final programme meetings of the 19 December 2014, respectively. This included our contribution to the ESRC/Google 'Lessons Learned' paper. Members of the project team are in the process of contributing to a pamphlet on the 2015 general election with more Google Trends data on UKIP; this is being put together by the Media Faculuty at Bournemouth University, and will be released a week after the UK 2015 General Election and formally launched at Westminster at the end of May. Filippo Trevisan is also including Google Trends as a method in further funding proposals for work on online debates about contested public health issues together with prospective collaborators at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health. The Project Voter Ecology Key Findings Report was published on our project website: http://voterecology.com on 22 January 2015. Other blogs and publications are also available on this site.
First Year Of Impact 2013
Sector Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Cultural,Societal

 
Description Context, context, context! 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 4th Blog Post on Research Update
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://voterecology.com/2014/02/18/context-context-context/
 
Description Egypt and the Symptoms of a Global Revolution: Alternative Politics 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Third VoterEcology.com research blog update - January 2014. See: http://voterecology.com/2014/01/07/egypt-and-the-symptoms-of-a-global-revolution/
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://voterecology.com/2014/01/07/egypt-and-the-symptoms-of-a-global-revolution/
 
Description Invited participant 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Invited participant: 'Digital Futures Conversation: The Onlife Initiative Future Steps, DG Connect Workshop, European Commission, Brussels, 9 July 2013.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description No Laughing Matter: Political Gaffes and Online Information Search in Election Campaigns 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Seminar for PhD and Faculty at the Philip Merrill College of Journalism, University of Maryland - College Park
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Project Website 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact http://www.voterecology.com

Main outlet for promotion of developing research and publications.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www.voterecology.com
 
Description Project launch press release 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Press release publicising the launch of the project that was sent to 1,241 national and international mass media outlets. This was drafted by the RA and PI in consultation with Glasgow University's media relations office.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Turning the Pyramid Upside Down 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog Post 1 - http://voterecology.com/2013/08/06/turning-the-pyramid-upside-down/
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://voterecology.com/2013/08/06/turning-the-pyramid-upside-down/
 
Description Under the Tip of the Iceberg 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Second blog post research update http://voterecology.com/2013/10/29/under-the-tip-of-the-iceberg/

http://voterecology.com/2013/10/29/under-the-tip-of-the-iceberg/
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://ttp://voterecology.com/2013/10/29/under-the-tip-of-the-iceberg/