Labor Outmigration, Agricultural Productivity and Food Security

We propose to investigate the consequences of labor outmigration on agricultural productivity in a poor agricultural country persistently facing food security problems. We aim to answer three high-priority scientific and policy questions: To what extent
(a) Does labor outmigration influence (i) agricultural productivity, (ii) women's participation in farming, and (iii) exit from farming?
(b) Do remittances influence (i) farm technology use, (ii) women's participation in farming, and (iii) exit from farming?
(c) Do farm technology use and exit from farming influence subsequent outmigration?
With an estimated 214 million people l--mostly from poor agricultural regions to more industrialized countries-international migration is a key concern in scholarly and policy arenas. This unprecedented phenomenon has wide-ranging consequences both for migrant-sending and receiving locations. This study focuses on one specific, but crucial consequence - the impact of labor outmigration on agricultural productivity in migrant-sending areas. As the agriculture productivity in poor subsistence economies is closely connected with one of the world's epidemic problems: food security. FAO estimated about 870 million people were undernourished in the period 2010-12. The vast majority of these - 852 million live in developing countries. Thus, increased agricultural productivity in poor countries is a key tool for alleviating this problem. This proposed project aims to better understand the relationship between labor outmigration and agriculture, providing crucial information for scientific and policy development of food security concerns.
Understanding the link between outmigration and agriculture is complicated by the fact that migration does not happen randomly. Additionally, changes in agricultural practices and migration are likely to influence each other. Thus, the empirical demands for adjudicating potential reciprocal relationships are high, limiting the ability of previous research to speak to these questions. To address this complication, we will leverage the Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS), a case control comparison design at the community level with a 15-year panel study of a stratified systematic sample of communities, households, and individuals in Nepal. This unusual panel study enables us to address the non-random selection of individuals into migration. Furthermore, the case control design is particularly powerful for controlling macro-level effects (e.g. climate, prices, and policies) to detect the effect of change and variation in the phenomena of interest: farm labor loss, remittances, farm technology use, agricultural productivity, and women's participation in farming. Despite the wealth of panel data, answering our specific questions requires a modest level of new data collection. Our proposed panel measurement will involve multi-mode mixed methods data collection with appropriate temporal order and timing precision necessary to assess the relationships31.
This study will generate high quality scientific outcomes that will be widely disseminated around the world. These outcomes are (i) comprehensive panel data with potential to address perplexing methodological problems; and (ii) empirical evidence of the consequences of labor outmigration, agricultural productivity, and its interplay with gender. First the data will be made available through ICPSR and UK Data Service and publications through websites will be provided to broader audiences. Second, the findings will be disseminated among the scientific communities through presentations at national and international conferences and publication of scientific articles, research briefs, and policy briefs. Finally, our capacity building training will also enhance scientific and analytical capacity of faculty and scientists of host country institutions (AFU, NARC and others).

The empirical findings and data generated by the study proposed have high potential to impact both academia and policy at local, national, and global levels.
Impact on academia: The empirical findings will be of great use to a wide range of academic audiences (faculty, students, etc.) for teaching and research purposes. At the local level, these audiences include affiliates of AFU, NARC, and other local colleges and universities. At the national level, the findings will have strong relevance to academic audiences in migrant sending countries in South Asia. Our (UM and ISER-N) joint training program on survey methodology in Nepal has strong collaborative ties with various universities and research organizations in South Asia. Faculty, research scholars, and students from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan regularly participate in the training we offer. We will use this venue to share our findings. At the global level, the publication of findings will improve and stimulate further research in this area by scholars worldwide.
The panel measurement generated by this study with the potential for unraveling perplexing problems of selectivity, simultaneity and causal pathways, will provide researchers with the methodological means to answer high propriety scientific questions. We plan to make these measures available to a wider audience through the public release of the data. This will greatly promote data use resulting in additional publications, PhD/MSc dissertations/theses and other reports. We will further promote data use through display booths at national and international conferences, and the training we propose to offer to faculty and research scientists at AFU and NARC. We expect academic audiences will benefit from this research even beyond the current project period stimulating new research in other areas of science such as migrant health and relationship dynamics among parents, spouses and children.
Impact on policy: Empirical answers from rigorous science provide crucial information for policy makers struggling to make the best use of scarce resources. First, understanding the extent to which loss of farm labor is associated with agricultural productivity will provide key information for policy makers to formulate migration and agriculture policy. Second, understanding the extent to which remittances from migrants compensate for the loss of male farm labor, if any, through labor-saving farm technology use is crucial for formulating agriculture mechanization policy. Finally, understanding the impact of male labor migration on women's involvement in agriculture is important for the wellbeing of women.
We plan to engage stakeholders in several stages of this program to ensure effective policy influence. The key stakeholders include: local farmers (male & female), women's groups, service providers and entrepreneurs (local level); District Agriculture Development Office, District Development Committee, NGOs, colleges and universities (district level); NARC, National Planning Commission, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Ministry of Women, Children and Social Welfare, INGOs, and donors engaged in rural development programs. The findings of this study will also have broader implications for the design of migration and agriculture policy worldwide. Our global target audiences are the IOM, FAO, WFP, IFRI, INGOs, donors and investors engaged in agriculture development worldwide.
Finally, to disseminate the findings we will hold a series of stakeholders meetings at each level. We will also summarize findings from peer-reviewed publications and publish them as policy briefs. At the global level, we will make these available through websites, conference presentations, and publications in scientific journals. We expect that the analysis of these data by the participants of data analysis workshops and others will generate new findings that will impact policy beyond the project period.