Urgency Grant: Crowdsourcing conflict and peace 'events' in the Syrian Conflict

It is clear to all that Syria is currently undergoing a serious conflict and that many Syrians are suffering under violence. The character of this conflict however, is different for different places within Syria, and is changing over time. For example, we see that new armed groups spring up very regularly, and that local armed groups do not necessarily have established connections to the 'main' parties to the conflict. We aim to create a database that captures this complex situation and helps us understand what is happening in Syria, when, where, by whom and why.

This database will be a database of reported 'events'. An 'event' is defined as an instance of (1) the use of violence; (2) a local negotiation or cease-fire; (3) the formation or disbandment of armed groups. We aim to gather these events through crowdsourcing. This involves creating a web-platform where people in Syria with a mobile phone (text-messaging) or internet connection can report these events, as they see them happening. We have made contact with a network of local civil society organisations, many of which are involved in negotiating cease fires, and will encourage members of these networks to participate in the crowd-sourcing effort. The result is a database that records instances of the use of violence and attempts at peace-making, and that details the date and location at which these happened, and what parties were involved.

This is important information for a number of reasons. First of all, it gives a more detailed understanding of what happens in Syria and enables tracing patterns (e.g.: what are the most violent areas? Where are new armed groups being formed? What actors commit violence where?). Secondly, this data can be used to analyse why certain areas are more violent than others and what contributes to the formation of armed groups or the success of a local peace agreement. For example, are external interventions, or debates about military intervention, related to armed group formation or the use of violence? What makes successful local peace negotiations more likely? Finally, it is intrinsically important to record instances of human suffering and the successes of local peacemakers, as a matter of historical record.

As described under 'academic beneficiaries', an important group of beneficiaries are academics studying conflict and violence, in the disciplines of economics and political science. They will benefit through a greater availability of more detailed data on violence, for a conflict that is high-profile, for which no data currently exists. This may lead to improved knowledge on modern-day violence; its character, factors that contribute to violence and factors that contribute to successful peace-building.

The project would also provide a central depository, where civil society organisations working on peace initiatives in Syria can report their activities. If these organisations find it useful to know what activists in other areas are doing, and to the extent that they are encouraged in their activities by this knowledge, this can be of benefit to them. We believe that seeing similar efforts towards peace succeed elsewhere can have an encouraging effect.

Another group of potential beneficiaries are development practitioners, specifically humanitarian aid organisations. Having up-to-date and accurate information of where the flashpoints of violence are can help them in targeting their efforts; for example by helping to predict refugee flows or by keeping a record of the areas worst hit for future humanitarian efforts.

Finally, our research and the knowledge that could be created using our dataset could benefit policy makers. Civil conflict, violence and otherwise 'unstable' countries are a concern for policy makers, but few policy 'solutions' present themselves short of seemingly ineffective and increasingly unpopular direct military interventions. Current data, for example daily casualty counts, is well suited to show the gravity of the situation, but provides few hints as to what spurs and mitigates violence. We therefore believe that more and more detailed research into the factors that contribute to violence and peace-making, can filter into the policy-making process, potentially improving the effectiveness of policies in conflict-affected situations.