A Dynamic Analysis of Poverty and Vulnerability in Wales: Moving Beyond the "Conventional" Approach

There is increasing recognition among academics and practitioners that poverty is multidimensional and context specific. It is the multiple aspects of poverty that together define the experience of the poor. Considering the various dimensions independently is insufficient but existing methods for computing Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) have several weaknesses that prevent meaningful poverty comparison over time, thereby limiting the ability to assess policy impact. Ravallion (2011, 12), for example, has criticised the MPI on the grounds of arbitrariness in selecting indicators and their weights. Another criticism of the MPI is that it measures poverty using a single year survey and therefore lacks dynamics (Addison et al. 2009). There is thus scope for serious empirical research to understand Multi-dimensional Poverty (MDP) as the outcome of dynamic processes in which a personal history, experience, livelihood strategy and associated risks drive some people to enter into a particular dimension of poverty (e.g. health) or make it difficult to help the poor in other dimensions (e.g. asset) escape from poverty.

Evidence suggests that in-work poverty in Wales has been on the rise in the past decade (Gottfried and Lawton, 2010; JRF, 2013). Drawing upon the most recently available panel data on Wales and the wider UK (BHPS and Understanding Society) and combining them with qualitative information, we propose to go beyond the existing analysis of MDP by applying state-of-the-art econometric methods which allow us to understand MDP dynamics in Wales in general and in-work poverty in particular. More specifically, our models will help us understand mechanisms by which the duration of poverty in a particular dimension in the past potentially affects subsequent transitions of each component of poverty by modelling unobservable capabilities. The proposed research will establish the scale, importance and geography of in-work poverty in Wales. We will create maps of our MDP results for Wales.

Furthermore, the results of the quantitative and spatial analyses will be validated through qualitative interaction on two levels: with departments of local government and voluntary sector organisations which work to tackle poverty at the level of individuals and households; and with individuals and households themselves which are experiencing multidimensional poverty. We will work through established networks of NGOs, such as the Homelessness Forum, and the Supporting People Forum, which unite the first category of participants in the qualitative phase of the inquiry. We will use an accessible briefing describing poverty determinants and proposed frameworks to tackle their effects as an introduction, a semi-structured interview with 15 purposively sampled participants. We will use the same local organisations to identify and interview the second category of participants, again with 15 purposively sampled interviews in situations which represent the key categories elicited from secondary data analysis. This will provide a clearer and more nuanced perspective on the mechanisms determining, and consequent problems arising, from in-work poverty and the families affected by it. Interviews will be audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed in NVivo, using a phenomenological approach to obtain lived experience accounts from the perspective of practitioners and their clients.

We will use mixed method procedures, giving equal precedence to the two major methodological perspectives, to provide new insights into efficient and effective approaches to tackling poverty in Wales. In a final stage these insights will be introduced, debated and consolidated into recommendations for policy development through three regional workshops with wider groups of stakeholders in North, Mid and South Wales, respectively. From this concluding round of discursive evaluations of our overall results, we will formulate our policy recommendations.

This project will provide research-based policy recommendations on poverty reduction to the Welsh Government, local authorities, public bodies and non-profit organisations and practitioners working on poverty reduction in Wales and beyond.

We will target the generation of impact primarily on the voluntary sector, by providing evidence of the mechanisms determining poverty and communicating the perspective of the socially and economically disadvantaged. Our objective is to improve their effectiveness in delivering support, particularly in identifying locational and other factors which let individuals and families slip through the safety net of official statutory provision. All stakeholders will benefit from PI's extensive experience in working on poverty reduction in developing countries.

We will interact directly, by allowing the issues identified by them to be incorporated into research agenda of the project and more widely academic poverty research. Our well-established relations with Ceredigion Care Society, and Midmore and Henley's respective involvements in social enterprise and faith-based organisations, provide us with direct access to the main networks of anti-poverty organisations in Wales. We will actively seek invitations to participate in these forums and network meetings, gain discursive insights through semi-structured interviews, jointly formulate recommendations to inform their policy and practice in the regional workshops, and promote greater coordination among various stakeholders on reducing poverty in Wales by providing an evidence-based bridge between policymakers and practitioners. Networks of exchange formed in the course of the proposed project will provide a legacy for future collaboration.

The policymaking community in Wales will benefit from our results directly through the networking of projects under this theme managed by the Public Policy Institute for Wales. We plan to cooperate closely with other "What Works in Tackling Poverty" funded projects by holding interim progress meetings and making joint presentations to public policy stakeholders. We will also make two presentations of our results to the annual WISERD conference which attracts users as well as producers of research data. We also plan to produce learning materials for use in schools and colleges in Wales which have adopted the Welsh Bacc, introducing the next generation to issues of social responsibility and ethical choices in policymaking.

More broadly, our results will have implications for the policy choice between place-based versus people-centred (social) policies in poverty reduction. We will use the comparative regional dimension of our results to contrast with experience elsewhere in Britain, producing technical and non- technical versions of our result for circulation to bodies such as the European Commission Cohesion Policy Unit and the European Anti-Poverty Network. We will produce media releases to engage with print, broadcast and social networking media, in collaboration with the press office at Aberystwyth University, to disseminate our findings to and engage with the wider general public.