Thinking about the past and the future: A developmental study of temporal asymmetries

We seem to care more about the future than the past. For example, we may be unconcerned about a very painful toothache that we had in the past, but go out of our way to avoid even a mild toothache in the future. Philosophers have debated whether the fact that we are biased toward the future is irrational or incoherent, or is best explained in evolutionary terms (e.g., as allowing us to prepare effectively for what is to come). However, this bias is not merely a philosophical curiosity, but one that is likely to have a surprising impact on our everyday judgments: e.g., the findings of psychological research imply that if someone is deciding what to charge for their work, all other things being equal s/he will charge less for work s/he has already completed than for work s/he has yet to carry out. This is because we seem to value events in the future more than in the past. To give another example, if we are deciding how much someone should be punished for doing something wrong, we are likely to think more punishment is appropriate if the wrongdoing lies in the future than the past. We see future acts as more deserving of praise and blame, and more deliberate, than similar past acts. Moreover, events in the future feel closer in time than events an equivalent distance in the past: two weeks before Christmas, it seems to be very close, whereas two weeks after Christmas the holiday may feel as though it is in the distant past.

These phenomena can be described collectively as temporal asymmetries in judgments, and have been interpreted as being part of a more general bias toward the future. Researchers point to the fact that we spend more time thinking about the future than the past, and that we represent ourselves as moving toward the future and away from the past, as further evidence for such a bias. However, there are reasons to believe that this bias may not be present in young children and may only emerge with development.

The aim of this project is to examine the development of these types of temporal asymmetries in children and adolescents. Studying these effects in children will provide a new way of exploring the issue of whether younger people are less future-oriented than adults. Moreover, it will provide a unique way of testing some claims about why temporal asymmetries occur. Building on initial pilot studies, the project will explore when children first seem to value future events more than the past, judge that future events seem closer in time than past events, feel more emotion when considering the future versus the past, and judge that future actions are more deserving of praise or blame than past actions. It will also examine whether all of the asymmetries are present from the same age or whether differences in emotions felt when thinking about the past versus the future appear first and can explain other asymmetries. Furthermore, it will explore whether there are developmental changes in other aspects of thinking that have been taken to be indicative of a temporal bias: the amount of time spent thinking about the future versus the past and the tendency to represent ourselves as moving toward the future and away from the past. It will examine whether such changes go hand-in-hand with the emergence of temporal asymmetries. These studies will be the first to be conducted with children and will provide a new body of evidence about fundamental changes in children's thinking; moreover studying temporal asymmetries in a developmental context will help us to explain why these phenomena occur.

The proposed research will be the first to be conducted examining the developmental origins of temporal asymmetry, and will also be the most sustained and systematic attempt to study these effects and test some existing theoretical claims. Research on these effects is in its infancy and has only emerged in the academic literature within the last few years. As a result, although previous research has been published in very high profile journals (such as Psychological Science) it is unlikely that it has so far had significant non-academic impact. However, the temporal asymmetries in question potentially have wide-ranging effects on different types of real-life judgments and decisions. One notable effect of these asymmetries is to yield judgments that are temporally inconsistent. For example, Caruso's studies suggest that a jury deciding to award compensation will, other things being equal, offer greater compensation for future than past suffering. Furthermore, experimental studies demonstrate that judgments about whether or not the behavior of individuals (e.g., in avoiding tax) or large corporations (e.g., in maximizing profit at the expense of consumers) is deliberate and unethical are also affected by whether the actions in question are in the past or the future (Burns et al., 2010; Caruso, 2010). Although such temporal effects on judgments seem irrational, people do not seem to be aware of such biases and when these are made apparent find them difficult to defend. The current project will serve an important role in helping us understand these effects; such an understanding is crucial when explaining to the non-academic community how these biases may impact on decision making across different spheres of public and private life.

This project takes a developmental approach to understanding the underpinnings of temporal asymmetries, meaning that in addition to shedding light on adult decision making, it will also provide a characterization of how this influence on decision making changes with age. There is a widespread assumption that children and adolescents are more short-sighted and less future-oriented in their decision-making than adults, resulting in various sorts of real-world behaviors that may not be in their best long-term interests. Temporal asymmetries have been described as a temporal bias toward the future, and mapping out the developmental profile of such a bias may provide a way of understanding why decision making seems to become more future-oriented with age.

Because research in this area is at an early stage, the best starting point in delivering impact is to clearly communicate the existence and nature of temporal effects on decision-making to a broad range of non-academics. Thus, the impact plan focuses primarily on engagement with the public and non-academic organisations; given the basic nature of the research, it is not realistic to assume that this project will have demonstrable effects on policy or practice within the time period of the project. However, the striking nature of the effects, and the potentially important developmental implications of the findings, should ensure that it is possible to generate widespread interest outside of the research community.