Economic change and internal population dynamics: an innovative study of new residential mobilities in Scotland
Lead Research Organisation:
University of St Andrews
Department Name: Geography and Sustainable Development
Abstract
The proposed research aims to advance academic and policy understandings of how the recent period of economic recession and uncertainty has affected patterns and processes of residential mobility within Scotland. Mobility practices have implications for policy since the population size and composition of places impacts on issues such as economic competitiveness, service provision and resource allocation. Additionally, the factors that act against people moving in the face of economic 'push' or 'pull' factors has long been a concern of policymakers. Despite being an important policy issue, surprisingly little is known about the dynamics of internal migration. This research will investigate how population sub-groups and particular types of places have behaved over the course of the economic downturn in terms of mobility patterns. This will be achieved through an innovative analytical approach that mainly involves government administrative datasets that are linked to the decennial national census.
Research has shown how the recession has affected the dynamics of international immigration to the UK. However, comparatively little is known about patterns and processes of internal migration in the context of economic uncertainty. A longstanding obstacle to this type of research in Britain is the dearth of data relating to migration in general and residential mobility in particular. The NHS Central Register (NHSCR), which is based on GP registrations, is used by the official statistical offices in the UK to generate estimates of internal migration flows. However it contains a number of significant flaws. It undercounts some forms of mobility (such as very short distance moves and those made by young men) and can only shed light on the age and sex attributes of movers. The national census on the other hand contains a wealth of demographic information about movers, but only picks up individuals that have engaged in mobility sometime in the 12 months leading up to the day of the census (through the 'address one year ago' question). This research will use the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS), a dataset that links NHSCR and census data to, for the first time, generate insights into contemporary trends in residential mobility.
The project contains 4 distinct work packages;
1: A profiling of the mobility characteristics of population sub-groups and geodemographic areas using NHSCR data. This will be used to develop migration propensities and a classification of residential mobilities within Scotland.
2: SLS data will be used to assess the significance of place characteristics and (im)mobility behaviours relative to individual attributes in determining occupational outcomes.
3: The SLS and NHSCR will be used to examine whether the recession has produced new residential mobility patterns and whether different types of migrants have behaved differently, in terms of mobility, in the recession.
4: The value of the NHSCR as a source of information on internal migration will be scrutinised and improved, through comparison with census based estimates of population changes.
The findings will be of value to scholars interested in linking patterns in residential mobilities over the recession with contemporary labour and housing market trends. The project will also provide important information to policymakers concerned with a geographic matching of workers with jobs and of communities with appropriate public services. The research will generate a number of policy-relevant research papers in highly ranked academic journals. It will also achieve impact through knowledge exchange events and the production of a series of accessible briefing papers. Public bodies such as the Scottish Government, the National Records of Scotland and the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities have already declared support for the project and would be involved throughout in order to maximise the policy utility of the research.
Research has shown how the recession has affected the dynamics of international immigration to the UK. However, comparatively little is known about patterns and processes of internal migration in the context of economic uncertainty. A longstanding obstacle to this type of research in Britain is the dearth of data relating to migration in general and residential mobility in particular. The NHS Central Register (NHSCR), which is based on GP registrations, is used by the official statistical offices in the UK to generate estimates of internal migration flows. However it contains a number of significant flaws. It undercounts some forms of mobility (such as very short distance moves and those made by young men) and can only shed light on the age and sex attributes of movers. The national census on the other hand contains a wealth of demographic information about movers, but only picks up individuals that have engaged in mobility sometime in the 12 months leading up to the day of the census (through the 'address one year ago' question). This research will use the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS), a dataset that links NHSCR and census data to, for the first time, generate insights into contemporary trends in residential mobility.
The project contains 4 distinct work packages;
1: A profiling of the mobility characteristics of population sub-groups and geodemographic areas using NHSCR data. This will be used to develop migration propensities and a classification of residential mobilities within Scotland.
2: SLS data will be used to assess the significance of place characteristics and (im)mobility behaviours relative to individual attributes in determining occupational outcomes.
3: The SLS and NHSCR will be used to examine whether the recession has produced new residential mobility patterns and whether different types of migrants have behaved differently, in terms of mobility, in the recession.
4: The value of the NHSCR as a source of information on internal migration will be scrutinised and improved, through comparison with census based estimates of population changes.
The findings will be of value to scholars interested in linking patterns in residential mobilities over the recession with contemporary labour and housing market trends. The project will also provide important information to policymakers concerned with a geographic matching of workers with jobs and of communities with appropriate public services. The research will generate a number of policy-relevant research papers in highly ranked academic journals. It will also achieve impact through knowledge exchange events and the production of a series of accessible briefing papers. Public bodies such as the Scottish Government, the National Records of Scotland and the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities have already declared support for the project and would be involved throughout in order to maximise the policy utility of the research.
Planned Impact
A key aim is to work with stakeholders from outside the academy in the co-production of knowledge. This will happen in 3 ways:
a) establishing a policy maker advisory group,
b) holding 2 dissemination events to beneficiaries working outside the academy
c) producing policy briefing papers
An advisory panel made up of key stakeholders will meet with the research team on 3 occasions. The first 2 meetings will occur in the first 4 months of the project to discuss the research design and potential impact of the research. The same panel will meet again after 12 months to advise on the outcomes of the research in relation to the planned public engagement events. The researchers have already confirmed 3 stakeholders in the advisory panel;
Head of Demographic Statistics in the NRS
Head of the Strategic Research Unit in the Scottish Government
Policy Manager in COSLA
The NRS is not only charged with coordinating the decennial Scottish census but also in linking this data to other administrative datasets such as health and education registers of the kind provided by the Scottish Administrative Data Research Network and the Scottish Longitudinal Study. The project will make it possible to calibrate the accuracy of using NHSCR data to estimate mobile populations between censuses. Although previous work has shown that the NHSCR register undercounts certain groups, no attempt to fingerprint mobility by ONS OACs has occurred, and the 2011 census with its extra questions about international migrants provides an invaluable opportunity to profile migrant worker characteristics against the NHSCR for the first time. This technical comparison will feed into the ability of the NRS to refine mid-year population estimates and the biennial production of Scottish population forecasts, including local authority population forecasts. In addition to the technical improvements that could flow from the research, national and local government and the business sector will benefit from the deeper understanding of the drivers of migration and residential mobility. These impact on the demand for housing, social services, education and health services, all of which have to be planned at a local scale (hence the value of the OAC-based research proposed in this project).
In addition to engaging the stakeholder groups in the design and implementation of the project through the advisory panel, it is proposed to hold 2 dissemination events in order to share the findings with the wider non-academic community. The first event will be held in New Register House, Edinburgh. This NRS venue will host a meeting of invitees interested in the technical comparisons emerging from analysis of different datasets on residential mobility and migration. Most invitees will be from the Scottish census and records offices, as well as Scottish Government policy analysts. A second meeting will be organised in association with COSLA, to engage with the public, civil and private sector organisations that will benefit from a greater understanding of the patterns and processes of recent internal migration dynamics in Scotland. This constituency will be engaged with, not only through COSLA, but also via the third sector forum called the Scottish Migrant Network. The purpose of this meeting will be to discuss the commercial and policy implications of the substance of the research findings.
Policy briefing papers will be produced, with the first 2 tackling issues on a) migration and the housing market, and b) the challenges for non-UK migrant workers. These will form part of the ESRC Centre for Population Change Briefing Paper series. The papers will be electronically distributed to local authorities and other organisations with an interest in migration. This part of our impact strategy builds on recent experience of engaging with stakeholders during our ESRC-funded project on migration issues leading up to the independence referendum.
a) establishing a policy maker advisory group,
b) holding 2 dissemination events to beneficiaries working outside the academy
c) producing policy briefing papers
An advisory panel made up of key stakeholders will meet with the research team on 3 occasions. The first 2 meetings will occur in the first 4 months of the project to discuss the research design and potential impact of the research. The same panel will meet again after 12 months to advise on the outcomes of the research in relation to the planned public engagement events. The researchers have already confirmed 3 stakeholders in the advisory panel;
Head of Demographic Statistics in the NRS
Head of the Strategic Research Unit in the Scottish Government
Policy Manager in COSLA
The NRS is not only charged with coordinating the decennial Scottish census but also in linking this data to other administrative datasets such as health and education registers of the kind provided by the Scottish Administrative Data Research Network and the Scottish Longitudinal Study. The project will make it possible to calibrate the accuracy of using NHSCR data to estimate mobile populations between censuses. Although previous work has shown that the NHSCR register undercounts certain groups, no attempt to fingerprint mobility by ONS OACs has occurred, and the 2011 census with its extra questions about international migrants provides an invaluable opportunity to profile migrant worker characteristics against the NHSCR for the first time. This technical comparison will feed into the ability of the NRS to refine mid-year population estimates and the biennial production of Scottish population forecasts, including local authority population forecasts. In addition to the technical improvements that could flow from the research, national and local government and the business sector will benefit from the deeper understanding of the drivers of migration and residential mobility. These impact on the demand for housing, social services, education and health services, all of which have to be planned at a local scale (hence the value of the OAC-based research proposed in this project).
In addition to engaging the stakeholder groups in the design and implementation of the project through the advisory panel, it is proposed to hold 2 dissemination events in order to share the findings with the wider non-academic community. The first event will be held in New Register House, Edinburgh. This NRS venue will host a meeting of invitees interested in the technical comparisons emerging from analysis of different datasets on residential mobility and migration. Most invitees will be from the Scottish census and records offices, as well as Scottish Government policy analysts. A second meeting will be organised in association with COSLA, to engage with the public, civil and private sector organisations that will benefit from a greater understanding of the patterns and processes of recent internal migration dynamics in Scotland. This constituency will be engaged with, not only through COSLA, but also via the third sector forum called the Scottish Migrant Network. The purpose of this meeting will be to discuss the commercial and policy implications of the substance of the research findings.
Policy briefing papers will be produced, with the first 2 tackling issues on a) migration and the housing market, and b) the challenges for non-UK migrant workers. These will form part of the ESRC Centre for Population Change Briefing Paper series. The papers will be electronically distributed to local authorities and other organisations with an interest in migration. This part of our impact strategy builds on recent experience of engaging with stakeholders during our ESRC-funded project on migration issues leading up to the independence referendum.
Organisations
Publications
Ernsten A
(2018)
Using linked administrative and census data for migration research.
in Population studies
McCollum D
(2021)
Protracted precarities: The residential mobilities of Poles in Scotland
in Population, Space and Place
McCollum D
(2020)
Mobile no more? The innovative use of administrative data linked to a census-based longitudinal study to investigate migration within Scotland
in Population, Space and Place
| Description | The research focused on four themes; 1. Technical aspects of assessing migration Context Research conventionally hindered by data challenges Recent linking of administrative health data into the census-based SLS: new opportunities to study experiences of sizeable quantity of individuals, at detailed geographies, over a significant period. Findings Effective assessment of movers and moves at fine geographies for first time, captures most mobility Systematic underreporting of some moves, corrected via weighting Implications New method: new opportunities to better understand migration Demonstrates value of data linkage and longitudinal datasets in migration research, set to become evermore important in post-census era 2. The social-spatial mobility nexus Context Social mobility: key issue of contemporary policy and political salience. Combined weighted BHPS-UKHLS dataset allows for UK-wide long-term perspective (1991-2014). Findings Career escalator effects for skilled workers of working in particular places Migration: only longer distance moves related to changes in occupational standing. Recession related stagnation in occupational mobility, and only muted recovery Implications Uneven spatial distribution of career opportunities in the UK: rebalance economy or facilitate working in escalator regions Longer distance migration as a catalyst for career progression. Need to tackle uneven ability/propensity to engage in such forms of spatial mobility. Stagnation in occupational mobility: need to focus on quality as well as quantity of jobs. 3. Is internal migration on the wane? Context 'Age of Migration' versus demographic, economic and cultural factors favouring reduced internal migration Changes socially and spatially selective i.e. migration reflects and reinforces existing inequalities as some groups more willing and able to move than others Changing patterns pertinent to key policy issues e.g. operation of housing market, spatial mismatch and (im)mobility of jobseekers Findings Slight decline in rates of address changing in Scotland. Changes have coincided with recession. Drop in both short and long distances moving. Higher skilled, those in higher ranking occupations and residents of wealthier areas more spatially mobile over longer distances. Ethnic minorities more mobile over shorter distances. Uneven impact of the recession: mostly suppressed longer distance mobility of 26-35 year olds, graduates and those in higher ranking occupations and in wealthier areas. More socially uniform suppression of residential mobility Implications Largely uniform decline in shorter distance moves, because of choice v constraint? Longer distance moves linked to positive occupational mobility, but this option only available to relatively privileged, groups. Now, even these groups becoming less spatially (and socially?) mobile. 4. Do immigrants and ethnic minorities have distinct patterns of internal migration? Context Differing internal migration rates reflect inequalities in desire, ability and thus propensity to move Practical and policy ramifications as growing migrant and ethnic minority population Findings Most minority groups have relatively high levels of residential mobility, especially White Polish and African/Scottish African groups. Immigrants become less mobile with time spent in Scotland, except the Polish ethnic group Implications Ethnic minorities more mobile over short distances but less mobile over longer distances: concern about residential insecurity and constrained career opportunities Polish/A8 group distinctive, perhaps due to disadvantageous labour market position: requires special policy attention |
| Exploitation Route | Academic The project has contributed to emerging academic research on the nature, causes and implications of changing internal migration intensities in developed countries. This includes papers at international academic conferences and the submission of three articles to peer reviewed academic journals to date. The findings will form the basis of a larger funding proposal that seeks to better understand the drivers of the migration trends uncovered by this research. Non-academic This project was the first to make use of the recent linking of administrative health data into the census-based SLS, and as such has demonstrated its value to other potential users. It also acts an advertisement to encourage other longitudinal studies to incorporate administrative data for research purposes. The findings have been of value to policy practitioners in parts of Scotland that face demographic challenges due to outmigration, as they have documented the population sub-groups that are becoming increasingly immobile. This can help to inform appropriate policy responses to the challenge of depopulation. The nature, causes and implications of reduced rates of address changing will also be of relevance to a range of economic sectors, such as education, healthcare, retail and transport. |
| Sectors | Communities and Social Services/Policy,Construction,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice,Retail,Transport,Other |
| URL | https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/media/dept-of-geography-and-sustainable-development/pdf-s/gsd/SDAI%20summary%20document.pdf |
| Description | Results of use to practitioners and policymakers. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2016 |
| Sector | Communities and Social Services/Policy,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |