Innovations in Small Area Estimation Methodologies

Reliable statistics are crucial for policy relevant research. Small Area Estimation (SAE) methods generate robust reliable and consistent statistics at geographical scales for which survey data are either non-existent or too sparse to provide direct estimates of acceptable accuracy.

The last decade has seen a rapid increase in the use of SAE. Statistical agencies and Governmental organisations are actively developing their own suites of estimates. In the UK the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has responded to user demands by producing estimates of average household income for wards and using SAE to answer queries from local authorities, policy advisers and government departments. The Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) is actively seeking to develop capacity for SAE. Public Health England produces SAEs of adolescent smoking and chronic kidney disease.

Initial demands for small area statistics are now shifting to requirements for more complex statistics that extend beyond averages and proportions to encompass estimates of statistical distributions, multidimensional indicators (e.g. inequality and deprivation indicators) and methods for replacing the Census and adjusting Census results for undercount. These developing requirements pose significant methodological and applied real-world challenges. These challenges are deepened by different methodological approaches to SAE remaining largely unconnected, locked in disciplinary silos. The technical presentation of SAE also impedes more widespread uptake by social scientists and understanding by users.

The proposed programme of work aims to (a) develop novel SAE methodologies to better serve the needs of users and producers of SAE (b) bridge different methodological approaches to SAE, (c) apply SAE for answering substantive questions in the social sciences and (d) 'Mainstream' SAE within the quantitative social sciences through the creation of methodologically comprehensive and accessible resources. The project comprises three work packages of methodological innovative research designed to deepen the understanding of SAE and achieve the aforementioned aims.

The project will capitalise on a cross-disciplinary research team drawn together through an NCRM methodological network and reflecting a large part of the SAE expertise in the UK. Through long-standing collaborations with national and international agencies in the UK, Mexico and Brazil, which are placed at the centre of the project, we enjoy access to individual level secondary survey and Census data. Collaboration with key SAE users will ensure that the project remains relevant to user needs and that methodologies are used for expanding the set of small area statistics currently available. The involvement of international experts ensures the quality and relevance of the research.

Substantive outputs will include SAEs of attributes of interest to users, including income, inequality, deprivation, health, ethnicity and a realistic pseudo-Census dataset for use by other researchers. The project will advance knowledge across disciplines in the social sciences including social statistics, applied economics, human geography and sociology. It will additionally impact on the production of official and Census statistics. The project is committed to adding value to NCRM's training and capacity building activities by developing new resources.

The project supports impacts via tailored pathways to three key beneficiary groups: the project's major national and international partners; current and future SAE practitioners across diverse sectors; and SAE users (e.g. policy makers, media, general public).

Beneficiary Group One: Major national and international project partners
The project works collaboratively with major national and international partners - ONS (UK), Welsh Assembly Government (UK), CONEVAL (Mexico) and IBGE (Brazil) - with whom the academic team have existing track records. Partners will benefit directly via the production of new SAE estimates of co-selected outcomes of priority interest to them. They will also benefit through their project collaboration in terms of enhanced methodological understanding of alternative SAE approaches.

Impact strategy for this beneficiary group: Project partners co-designed the project foci to ensure fit to their priorities. To ensure continued impact a steering committee consisting of the project team, partner organisations and NCRM will be formed and meet twice a year. A first stakeholders' event, organised after 18 months, will offer feedback to the project team. A second stakeholders' event will be organised at the end of the project.

Beneficiary Group Two: Current and future SAE researchers (across academic, policy, commercial and third sector settings)
This project will overcome key methodological challenges and deliver a step-change in SAE methodologies. These methodological advances offer clear benefits for all current and future SAE researchers and require effective pathway strategies to ensure impact maximisation. Beyond this directly identifiable group, there are many more researchers interested in using SAE but who currently lack the technical capacity to conduct the work and still more researchers whose work or organisations could benefit from SAE but who are not aware of the technique and its potential. The project aims both to mainstream SAE awareness and upskill SAE technical capacity across these social science communities.

Impact strategy for this beneficiary group: A range of academic outputs (high-impact journal articles, national and international conferences, seminars), accessible outputs and learning resources ('how to' guides, technical manuals, new open source software packages, reports) will be produced and made available on the NCRM website as a focal point. Outputs will be disseminated at annual ESRC, NCRM events, advertised widely and regularly via email lists, the NCRM training directory, and policy contacts. Our commitment to adding value to NCRM's training and capacity building programme will result in developing - jointly with NCRM - a suite of SAE resources and training events. At the second stakeholders' event we will invite social sciences postdoctoral and PhD researchers including those from DTCs.

Beneficiary Group Three: Users of SAE estimates
The last decade has seen a rapid increase in SAE activity and a large body of users of publicly available small area estimates now exist: policy makers, media and the general public for example. These users benefit indirectly via enhanced policy and commercial decision-making enabled by spatially detailed SAE data and directly via their ability to use new information about their communities. To do so appropriately requires a degree of basic statistical literacy that is often lacking.

Impact strategy for this beneficiary group: These user groups are not the target audience for advanced training. Instead, to reach this group project estimates and outputs will come with simple non-technical SAE guides and meaning of the estimates suitable for a lay reader. Datasets produced by the project e.g. SAE of income, deprivation, health and ethnicity, will be disseminated via NCRM and the ESRC-funded Consumer Data Research Centre at Liverpool, which includes an interactive mapping portal aimed at the public and business communities.