The legacy of authoritarian regimes on democratic citizenship

This research will study the legacy impacts of previous authoritarian regimes on its citizens' political attitudes today. It thereby addresses important and unresolved questions of democratisation, by using a new methodological approach of cohort analysis to examine the lasting legacy of authoritarian dictatorships. Previous research has overlooked the possibility of citizens' formative experiences in non-democratic systems that might impact their political attitudes, values, and behaviour even after the existence of these regimes. We expect that these legacy impacts have important implications for the development of a democratic political culture in transitioning societies.

We will hence develop a new theory of authoritarian socialization, which assumes that different authoritarian regimes vary in the way they suppress their citizens, and that this in turn will lead to distinctive beliefs and behaviour in the population. Studying the experience of whole generations (or cohorts as they are also referred to) who have been socialised under dictatorships makes it possible to investigate whether regimes differ in terms of the impact they may have on their citizens' beliefs. Further we are interested in whether and how this imprint might negatively affect the establishment of a democratic political culture. The objective of this project is to develop a typology of regime characteristics and their lasting impact on the population. We expect that this typology and an accompanying policy brief will inform the practical developmental work of organisations working in transitioning societies.

This objective will be achieved by conducting a comprehensive analysis of post-authoritarian countries from different parts of the world during the entire 20th century that experienced different types and durations of suppression. This includes the military regimes in South America, but also the socialist regimes in the former Eastern block. It is not possible to study the impact of these regimes during their existence, as representative public opinion research is not possible during dictatorships. We argue, however, that this is not necessary. Instead we rely on the method of cohort analysis, developed by the principle investigator Dr. Neundorf. One of the main methodological innovations of this project is that this method allows us to identify distinct characteristics of those generations that were mainly socialised during dictatorships.

To test our new theory of authoritarian socialisation, we will merge existing survey data from numerous post-authoritarian countries. Today this is possible, as survey research and public opinion polls are widespread beyond established Western democracies. For example, since 1995 several Latin American countries annually take part in the Latinobarometro. Other data that will be used include the World Value Survey (1980-2012), and Asiabarometer (2001-2012) as well as all six rounds of the ESRC-funded European Social Survey (2002-2012). The different survey questions included in the diverse datasets will be harmonised so that a joint analysis is possible. This is a major task of this project and will yield a unique longitudinal, global database of individuals' political attitudes and behaviour.

In order to assign the regime characteristics under which each generation grew up, we will further merge existing data sources (e.g. Polity IV and Autocratic Regime Transitions data) on authoritarian regimes to measure the distinct features of each regime. We will focus, on factors such as intra-elite structure, extent, scope and density of repression, and transition to democracy. The two datasets of individual-level survey data and regime characteristics will be jointly analysed using quantitative statistical analysis of hierarchical age, period, cohort analysis to estimate the generational differences in democratic attitudes and behaviour.

Our study will be the first to investigate the legacy of different types of dictatorship on transitioning societies, and will raise awareness of the importance of context to democratic consolidation, via production of academic articles, dissemination events, a website and policy brief.

This research will have direct relevance for the work of governmental and non-governmental organisations that work on democracy promotion and consolidation. Authoritarian regimes vary significantly in their functioning and the way they supress their citizens, which, we hypothesise, leads to different political beliefs and behaviour in the population. These legacies, we assume, will have important implications for the subsequent development of a democratic political culture in transitioning societies. However, to date, organisations working on democracy promotion and civil society strengthening rely on very generic tools, insensitive to specific country contexts (Carothers 2015). Part of the problem, we believe, is that practitioners lack an evidence-based understanding of the effects of different authoritarian contexts on mass attitudes to democracy. Having secured support of several organisations working in democracy aid demonstrates a clear need for a better knowledge in this field.

Our first objective is to improve stakeholders' understanding of this diversity in post-authoritarian countries, and to raise awareness of the fact that different contexts may require different solutions. Secondly, based on our research we will produce a policy brief detailing the potential impact of different regime types on democratisation processes, and will disseminate this among relevant organisations that work in transitioning societies. The policy brief will address practical questions that relate to the development of democratic civil societies, one of the ESRC Strategic Areas. Depending on the regime characteristics of the overthrown dictatorship, diverse societies will require different support, i.e. the design of the (civic) education system, to successfully integrate citizens in the democratisation process.

The goal of our impact work is ultimately that organisations and practitioners will review and revise their aid programmes. In the medium-term, we plan to co-produce a new Civil Society Democratisation Manual with our project partners based on our research. We have already secured a commitment from several organisations working in the field of democracy research and promotion to work with us:
- The Overseas Development Institute (ODI), the UK's leading independent think tank on international development.
- The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, an inter-governmental organisation that supports national and local actors who are working for democratic reform, and facilitates dialogue in support of democratic change.
- The Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, a German non-governmental organization that promotes democracy and is active in more than 100 countries.
- The Organization of American States, an inter-continental organisation that promotes and consolidates representative democracy in the American continent.

Representatives of these organisations will be part of this project from the beginning to the end, through regular meetings and contact. They will give important insights into the needs and the context of democracy aid, which will feed into the design stage of the research. Through the collaboration with Dr. Kelsall, we also have a researcher with close links to the policy world, who will be part of the execution of the research. Further, our partner organisations will host dissemination events in London, Berlin, Washington DC, and Stockholm, which will allow us to reach other organisations that work in the field of democracy promotion (e.g. USAID, the Ford Foundation, Open Society Foundation, and the Department for International Development).