Equality of Opportunity in Access to Higher Education

Lead Research Organisation: University College London
Department Name: Economics

Abstract

Equality of opportunity is considered by many a basic human right. It is achieved when everybody can reach their full potential, and nobody is limited by the circumstances of their own birth. However, today millions of youths around the world face persistent gaps in opportunity. This is both a social and an economic issue, because economic potential is lost when many of our youth do not have access to safe environments, high quality education and employment opportunities.
This project focuses on ways to eradicate disparities in education and their consequences for labour market opportunities. In particular, it uses data from innovative inclusion policies in Chile, a country characterized by high income inequality, to find ways to close these opportunity gaps early on, i.e., before university enrolment and labour market entry. The goal of this research is not only to provide a scientific evaluation of educational policies in Chile, but also to draw practical public policy lessons that can be useful to any country.
To achieve this, the project combines exceptionally detailed data with structural modelling. Most of the data have already been or will be collected by the Chilean Ministry of Education in Chile. They will be complemented with a small data collection carried out by the candidate at a minimal cost, leveraging on established relationships with research users in-country. Structural modelling is the analysis of the mechanisms through which policies work. It is what allows us to extrapolate, from specific contexts, general conclusions that are applicable to many countries.
The project addresses three related research questions. First, it evaluates an affirmative action programme called PACE (Programa de Acceso Efectivo y Acompanamiento a la Educacion Superior), which guarantees admission to university to the best students in disadvantaged high schools in Chile. The study will use a Randomized Control Trial that exploits the planned programme roll-out to scientifically evaluate programme effectiveness and to identify the key ingredients for inclusion policy success.
Second, it determines if differences exist in the effectiveness of the pilot programme for PACE, the Propedeutico programme, between high schools that do and that do not stream students of similar ability into the same classes. In doing so, the study extends our understanding of the role of tracking and peers in the production of achievement. For example, findings will determine if students compete more fiercely for university admission when they are in classrooms with similar peers.
Third, it evaluates the impact of higher education on disadvantaged youth. To do so, it uses cut-off rules for university admission to apply a policy evaluation technique known as regression discontinuity. The benefits of higher education on the academic and labour market outcomes of disadvantaged youths are not well understood because very few poor students are observed enrolling in university. Because these are the very students that inclusion policies target, evaluating the benefits for them is of paramount importance for policy makers and researchers.
This project's goal is to maximise the returns of investing in the lives of young people. This not only reduces the vast human cost of inequality, but it also increases aggregate earnings and economic growth. Due to the candidate's network in academia and in the public sector in Chile (including in the Chilean Ministry of Education), the results of the study can have a direct and immediate impact on the educational policy discourse in Chile. Over the years, the Chilean Governments have shown willingness to enact reforms that have a strong evidence-base. Therefore, potentially hundreds of thousands of poor children in Chile can be directly affected in the short term. Other countries could then follow the Chilean example, amplifying the potential impact to millions of underprivileged and talented children around the world.

Planned Impact

This project's goal is to maximise the returns of investing in the lives of young people by deriving specific lessons for inclusion policies in education and disseminating the findings among key policy makers.
Direct beneficiaries of the research are: the Chilean Ministry of Education, the coordinators of the PACE and UNESCO-Propedeutico inclusion programmes, the directors of the PACE and UNESCO-Propedeutico programmes at participating universities, and the teachers, principals and students at the many high schools currently involved and soon to be involved in these programmes. Indirect beneficiaries are policy makers interested in closing opportunity gaps around the world, and the millions of disadvantaged and talented children targeted by their policies.

The Ministry of Education in Chile and the coordinators of the inclusion programmes will benefit from the research's findings in two ways. First, the findings will provide direction on how the design of these inclusion policies can be improved cost-effectively. The project builds on initial results from the UNESCO-USACH Propedéutico pilot programme, and performs a rigorous evaluation of the full programme roll-out. The evaluation's structural modelling will build a comprehensive understanding of the drivers of PACE's impact, and generate concrete recommendations for improvement. Over the years, the Chilean Governments have shown willingness to enact reforms that have a strong evidence-base. The candidate and her collaborators are building a strong network within the public sector to ensure impact. For example, the consultant on the project, Ms. Ranjita Rajan, is engaging key staff at the Ministry of Education, including the vice Minister Valentina Quiroga, to build awareness of the project among key stakeholders and decision makers. Therefore, the findings have the potential to directly influence the political discourse in Chile over inclusion policies. As a result of improved programme design, teachers, principals and thousands of students at participating high schools will benefit directly. Given the Government's plan to expand this type of policies, potentially hundreds of thousands of poor Chilean students will be affected by the findings of the study.

Second, the Ministry and programme coordinators will benefit from the evaluation of the impact of university attendance on disadvantaged youths, one of the three research questions addressed in the project. In particular, the findings should provide a strong evidence-based on the case for these inclusion programmes. The current lack of scientific evidence may hinder the Government in its (costly) plan to expand these programmes.

Moreover, academics from various disciplines in Chile who are currently studying these programmes will benefit from the quantitative analysis generated by the project. For example, one of the Chilean collaborators of the candidate from the Department of Anthropology of the University of Santiago, Antonio Garcia Quiroga, is performing a qualitative evaluation that will be nicely complemented by the quantitative one generated by the project. Prof. Quiroga and his team are seeking funding from their Government for their project. Our international and interdisciplinary collaboration will undoubtedly make for a stronger case, facilitating their project's completion. This should amplify the impact of this project by promoting interdisciplinary complementarities.

More broadly, the project will contribute to the literatures on affirmative action in education, development of human capital, inequalities in education and in the labour markets, and peer effects. Researchers from Education, Economics, Sociology and Anthropology interested in these topics will benefit from the project's novel findings.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description I have found that the PACE policy increased enrolment in university among disadvantaged students (its stated goal), however, it decreased the study effort and achievement of students while they are still in high-school. I have uncovered that high-school students hold biased beliefs regarding their admission chances to university which interact with the incentives provided by the PACE policy and can help explain the negative result on achievement. Model simulations indicate that correcting these beliefs would improve the outcomes of the policy in terms of pre-university achievement and university enrollment.
Exploitation Route I advised the Government on the policy impacts on enrollment. Based on my research results, the Government decided to continue funding this policy. Moreover, based on my finding on the negative effect on achievement, the Government is eager to keep collaborating with me to improve policy design. In particular, I identified a potentially important benefit of providing information to students on their admission chances with and without the preferential admission rules. This is a low or zero cost intervention that, according to my model simulations, has the potential to improve the policy effectiveness at increasing university enrollment among disadvantaged students.

Getting low-SES students into prestigious selective universities can potentially be life-changing for these individuals. Moreover, by reducing inequality in access to university in Chile, this policy addresses a central concern in the Chilean society: income inequality (we have seen the recent dramatic unrests).
Sectors Education,Government, Democracy and Justice

URL https://sites.google.com/site/mtincani/home/policy
 
Description I co-authored two policy reports officially released by the Ministries of Finance and of Education in Chile, and one policy report released by the Institute for Fiscal Studies in the UK. The first two reports have affected the debate around the PACE preferential admission policy and decisively influenced policy-making. In particular, the Pinera government chose to keep financing the PACE policy following the release of the first policy report in 2019. In 2022, following the publishing of the third policy report (by the IFS), I was invited to several meetings with policymakers, policy coordinators, and practitioners. The goal was to advise the government and practitioners on the design of the PACE policy. The following 3 talks I gave have been particularly high profile: June 2022: "PACE policy: current successes and future challenges", Research Centre, Chilean Ministry of Education July 2022: "PACE policy design", Undersecretariat of Higher Education, Chilean Ministry of Education July 2022: "Evaluación de impacto del programa PACE", consortium of universities participating in the PACE program (the talk was attended by 160 practitioners and it was introduced by the Undersecretary of Higher Education, Veronica Figueroa Huencho)
First Year Of Impact 2019
Sector Education
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Description Design and implementation of the PACE policy in Chile
Geographic Reach South America 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact I gave a policy talk at the Budget office of the Chilean Ministry of Finance in May of 2019. The talk was attended also by civil servants from the Chilean Ministry of Education. As a direct result of the talk, the Government decided to not discontinue the PACE policy. Our research estimates are that this policy increases the enrollment of disadvantaged students into university by around thirty percent (compared to baseline enrollments in the absence of the policy). Moreover, I presented evidence strongly sugegsting that an informational intervention could improve policy impacts on enrollment. As a result , the Ministry of Education is seriously considering introducing this informational intervention, and we are discussing further evaluations. I wrote two policy reports which I co-authored with staff from the Ministries of Finance and of Educaiton and which have been officially released by both Ministries. Please refer to the URL below for links to both reports.
URL https://sites.google.com/site/mtincani/home/policy
 
Description Presented updated research results using 2021 administrative data
Geographic Reach South America 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Working together with the Government to take the next steps following the key areas of improvement that my research has highlighted.
 
Description Fabian Kosse was awarded the "Center for the economics of human development University of Chicago R24 starting grant"
Amount $10,000 (USD)
Organisation University of Chicago 
Sector Academic/University
Country United States
Start 06/2017 
End 10/2018
 
Description Jacobs Foundation Young Scholars grant
Amount SFr. 80,000 (CHF)
Organisation Jacobs Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country Switzerland
Start 01/2017 
End 01/2019
 
Title Combining randomisation with structural modelling 
Description We developed an innovative way to combine two methodologies that so far have typically been implemented separately: structural modelling with data from a randomised experiment. Moreover, we brought scientific experimentation into real-world policy making through the randomisation of a real-world education policy. 
Type Of Material Data analysis technique 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact There is a limited but growing number of studies that combine these two methodologies, and our study will serve as an example for academics intending to adopt this combined approach in future. Moreover, by working closely with policy makers, we have demonstrated that it is possilble to bring the scientific method into real-world policy-making and this project can serve as a leading example for other countries and researchers around the world. 
 
Title Database 
Description We collected data in 128 schools, on over 6500 students, 250 teachers, and 128 school principals. The dataset is unique because: 1) it is the first one to combine measures of student acheivement and effort with student beliefs, 2) it is fully linkable to detailed administrative data (and has been linked to these preexisting data already). 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact This research database will be made available to the wider community of researchers following standards for data availability in the profession. This will have an important impact on research, because prior to our data collection, nobody in the world has ever had access to data collected within the randomisation of a national policy on affirmative action. 
 
Title Structural model 
Description Dynamic structural model linking pre-university achievement to applications, admissions and enrolment decisions into university. The model has been estimated using the dataset generated by this research and it has been used to run simulations that can predict the likely impacts of admission policies not yet in place. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact The model can be used by anyone who is interested in measuring how pre-university achievement reacts to policies intended to affect the admission process into university. 
 
Description Karta Initiative 
Organisation Karta Initiative
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution My contribution to Karta Initiative (KI) has been to provide my research expertise. KI is a social mobility initiative pursuing research and programmatic work. Ranjita Rajan, CEO and founder of KI, collaborated in the fieldwork with me. From our discussions about the project, she learned about the mechanics and standards of academic research. Moreover, she will be coauthor of any policy brief stemming from our collaboration, and potentially on one academic paper.
Collaborator Contribution Ranjita Rajan, CEO and founder, has been pivotal in the success of the project. She initially led the conference calls with the public sector, leveraging on her extensive experience of 20+ years in business, public, and social sectors, and for/non-profit start-ups. For example, prior to founding KI she worked for McKinsey & Co, University of Oxford, DAI, Overseas Development Institute. First, her input was truly important in ensuring that we received from MinEduc the kind of support that was necessary for the successful completion of the data collection. Second, I personally learned a lot from her: I learned how to engage with different actors in the public sector (politicians, centre directors, researchers) and in the private sector (project managers, company owners etc.). Prior to this experience working in the field, I had not had much exposure to sectors outside of academia. I learned about the delicate dynamics that are in place within a project of this scale, that involves different parties with different but equally high stakes in the research findings. And I learned how to effectively communicate with my research partners outside of academia.
Impact Memorandum of Understanding (available upon request) laying out the nature of our relationship. This collaboration is what allowed the research team to have the full support of MinEduc during the data collection. This support, in turn, is what allowed us to have excellent quality data. Therefore, an output of the collaboration is the high-quality dataset that we were able to collect.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Ministry of Education - research group 
Organisation Government of Chile
Country Chile 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Ranjita Rajan and I worked closely with various teams within the Ministry. In particular, the research group at the Ministry is conducting evaluations studies of the PACE programme, using different outcome measures from the ones we are using. I have personally provided my technical expertise regarding the statistical analysis of the data. For example, I have helped them with power analysis, with balancing tests, and I have given them advice on how to address the fact that the PACE programme was implemented slightly differently in different schools. The latter factor introduces technical difficulties in its evaluation because if an effect is found, the analysis must be capable of pinning down what implementation worked best/worst. Finally, I participated in meetings with the research group and with UNDP representatives to inform them on the process of registering the RCT onto an international online RCT bank. Ranjita and I have also worked closely with the PACE team within the Ministry of Education, and we contributed in at least two ways: first, we conducted focus groups in schools together with the director of the programme, second, we advised them to administer a survey to the universities that participate in the programme, with the goal of understanding how the implementation differed across universities. I personally provided my input in the design of the survey. Finally, by constantly reporting to them during the fieldwork, we gave them information about the programme implementation in the field which they were not always aware of.
Collaborator Contribution The PACE team at MinEduc helped in countless ways. For example, they prepared letters that they sent to all school principals to encourage them to participate in my data collection, and contacted directly the schools whenever the schools had questions regarding the study. They put me in touch with educators who work in the targeted schools, and in particular, one of them helped me tremendously in the writing of the questionnaires. Her deep knowledge of the context was fundamental in helping me find a wording that the students would understand. Moreover, one of the junior members of the PACE team, a recent graduate in Economics from the Universitad de Chile, was assigned to me as an "informal research assistant". It is impossible to summarise the countless ways in which she helped me during the fieldwork.Equally, the research group at the Ministry helped in countless ways. For example, they helped me obtain references when I was choosing the data collection agency to hire afterhaving obtained a number of quotes, they aided in the survey writing, they helped in the training of the fieldworkers and they constantly communicated with my local project manager whenever issues arose that required their expertise, knowledge and network. They also did data merges for us. In particular, to comply with data protection laws, we never had access to the RUT (the Chilean national number) of the students in our sample, therefore, the Ministry did the data merges for us. Finally, the team helped and continues to help in ways that are difficult to summarise.
Impact I have personally signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the head of the research group at the Ministry of Education, which lays out the nature of our collaboration. The first tangible output of this collaboration is the completion of the data collection (in October 2017), which resulted in very high quality data. Not only the response rate of our schools was maximised thanks to the full support and backing of the Ministry of Education, but the merges with administrative baseline data revealed that our data are extremely accurate. The few discrepancies with administrative data were corrected one by one, by hand, by the research group at MinEduc, together with my project manager in the field and with myself. Another output of this collaboration is actual impact of the PI's research on policy. Thanks to the trust-based relationship developed with the researchers at MinEduc, my reserach is now taken in high regard by the head of research and it is entering the political debate. In particular, another one of my projects, a study of the merit-based teacher reform in Chile, is being used by the research group to guide the implementation of this reform by the new Government team (the Government is in the process of changing as I type). While this separate project was not directly funded by this grant, it is only thanks to the close collaboration with the Ministry that it has entered the political discourse, and that it has high potential to have pragmatic policy impact. The teacher reform is a major, large scale reform that will impact future generations of Chilean students, making my impact societal on top of political.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Ministry of Finance, Chile 
Organisation Government of Chile
Country Chile 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution In the process of advising the Ministry of Finance on improvements to the design of the PACE policy. My newest recommendations stem from the structural model that I have estimated. We are also discussing future collaborations for further policy evaluations.
Collaborator Contribution We are collaborating in producing a co-authored policy report. Various individuals from the ministries of Education and Finance have contributed to this report. Moreover, the Ministry of Finance has signalled support for future studies.
Impact Policy report (in preparation). We have iterated several times and should have a final version within a couple of weeks. Once this policy report will be published in Chile on official Governmental channels it will gain wide attention and it will inform the policy debate around the PACE policy. I have signed an MoU with the Ministries of Finance and of Education that lays out the nature of our partnership.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Undersecretariat of Higher Education at the Chilean Ministry of Education 
Organisation Government of Chile
Country Chile 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution I started a new collaboration whose goal is to help the government scale up the policy so that it reaches more disadvantaged students.
Collaborator Contribution Providing feedback to government on policy design, developing qualitative research activities to identify areas of improvement, implementing new quantitative study.
Impact The collaboration is still in process. The first output has been a series of meetings with policymakers, these are the dates: 29/06/2022 Presentation at the Ministry of Education, research group 30/06/2022 Meeting with director of research group at Ministry of Education to advise on future research priorities around PACE policy 15/07/2022 Meeting with undersecretariat of higher education + centro estudios at Ministry of Education (with Michela Carlana, collaborator from Harvard University) 26/07/2022 Public talk to practitioners of the PACE programme, consortium of universities participating in the program. This talk was introduced by the undersecretary of higher education, and it was tweeted by the official Ministerial twitter account: https://twitter.com/SubseEdSuperior/status/1551982664764334081?s=20&t=_iPKVGxTLTJAOvkfnTfa0Q 09/08/2022 Participated in the third "Jornada PACE" 11/08/2022 Consulted with Nicolás Urrea, Encargado de Control de Gestión y Análisis de datos de PACE-UAH (Universidad Alebrto Hurtado), one of the policy coordinators and practitioners 24/08/2022 Meeting with Centro Estudios MinEduc + Undersecretariat of Higher Education MinEduc, with M. Carlana 31/08/2022 Meeting with Undersecretariat of higher education (with Michela Carlana)
Start Year 2022
 
Title Software to estimate structural model using experimental data and belief surveys 
Description The software is not available yet but will be made publicly available (for free) upon publication. We developed a software that solves a dynamic model of educational choices which incorporates subjective beliefs (elicited through our survey) and that can be estimated using experimental data. The model can be used to predict the impact of various designs for the PACE poloicy, so it is of immediate use to Chilean policy-makers. Moreover, we are pushing the frontier of research by combining innovative data (subjective beliefs) with structural modelling and randomized experiments. Therefore, the software provides a framework that can serve as input for future researchers. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2020 
Impact Full impacts have not been realised yet because the software is not widely available yet (we are still polishing it). However, we used this software to generate the simulations upon which I based my policy talk at the Ministry of Finance in Chile in 2019. Therefore, results from the software have already had impacts on policy implementation decisions (see section on policyimpacts). 
 
Description Conference call with director of the PACE programme (i.e., the policy objective of the study) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact In a conference call with the director of the policy objective of my study, I communicated the (still preliminary) results. In our conversation, we discussed possible drivers of policy impact and areas of improvements for the design of the policy. However, because our results are still preliminary, we agreed that I will give a talk at the Ministry once we have more definitive results. In this occasion, I asked the director of the programme for additional involvement. In particular, I asked for data in his possession, which I believe can help us tease out the channels of policy impact. He gave me the additional data soon after our talk.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Conference call with head of research at MinEduc 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Ranjita Rajan and I had a conference call with Roberto Schurch - the director of the research group at MinEduc - to communicate preliminary results of our research in December 2017.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Conference call with research participants and users 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact Knowledge exchange with university professionals who are active members of the PACE policy programme. The impacts where mutually beneficial as these discussions informed my research and also worked as valuable feedback for research users themselves.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Conference calls with Ministry of Finance 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Communicated interim research results to the Ministry of Education via Skype call. I am planning a trip to Santiago to present the final results (probably in April/May 2019).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Focus group 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact During our fieldwork, Ranjita Rajan and I participated in a focus group in a vocational school in Renca, Chile, together with the director of the PACE programme (the policy objective of the study). Participants to the focus group inclouded: school principal, various school teachers, orientation teacher, students, reserchers from JPal Chile, and university professors who conduct orientation activities in the schools reached by the PACE programme. This focus group was very important in affecting our research design, in particular, the questions we added to the questionnaires. This is because we gained important knowledge about the reality of the schools that we were about to collect data on. The school principal and school teachers, on the other hand, had a rare opportunity to share their views about the programme with the programme director.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Formal working group with policymakers and researches from Ministry of Education 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Participated and led several working groups with policymakers in Chile to discuss the newest research results and define future steps for both policy and research
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Official policy talk at Ministry of Finance in Chile 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Around 50-60 people attended my official policy talk at the Budget Office of the Chilean Ministry of Finance in May 2019. Attendants incldued civil servants, researchers and policymakers. As a direct result of the talk and of subsequent working groups I participated in, the Government decided to continue funding the PACE policy, which improved university enrollment,ent among Chilean disadvantaged students by 30 percent. This is a nation-wide policy that affects hundreds of thousands of disadvantaged students in all Chilean regions.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Public talk to practitioenrs 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I gave a talk to 160 practitioners implementing the PACE policy, I was introduced by the undersecretary of higher education.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://twitter.com/SubseEdSuperior/status/1551982664764334081?s=20&t=_iPKVGxTLTJAOvkfnTfa0Q