Measuring the Impact of Brexit on UK Investment, Productivity, Sales and Employment
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Nottingham
Department Name: Sch of Economics
Abstract
The Bank of England and HM Treasury are currently working with Nottingham and Stanford Universities to run a pilot survey of firms across the UK on their expectations for future growth of sales, employment, investment, costs and other outcomes. This survey collects expectations from UK firms about the impact of Brexit shocks in a more timely way than other currently available indicators from the ONS, which lag behind events on average by at least 3 months. This proposal seeks to enlarge the panel of firms to allow for greater representativeness of the data, collection of data from the same panel participants over 3 years (we expect further Brexit shocks) and to allow us to conduct detailed analysis of subset of firms by industry, type and region. The data we are collecting is timely and important for immediate policymaking, business decisions and Brexit negotiations. The fact that this project has the full support of the Chief Economists of HM Treasury (Sir David Ramsden) and the Bank (Andrew Haldane) is evidence that the project is timely and important for UK decision making.
This data would be used for three purposes:
A) Research: We would investigate the impact of the Brexit (and other) shocks, in terms of both uncertainty but also mean impacts. Armed with our large panel of at least 2500 firms per month, and after matching this data into annual accounts data from Amadeus, industry and regional data (e.g. LFS and Comtrade) and ONS micro-data, we will then investigate a number of questions. For example, how has Brexit impacted investment and hiring, how does this vary across regions, industries, firm sizes, ages and growth rates? How is this related to the initial enthusiasm for Brexit, and how are other policies affecting this? Are firms expectations consistent with the eventual outcomes (since we follow these firms over time) and what factors appear to influence these expectations? Are firms over-optimistic (too high mean) and over-confident (too high variance) as is often seen in surveys of senior managers? The project will generate important answers to these questions, which will be used to generate international journal publications, as we draw upon unique and timely data during a period of immense change. The basis of the evaluation of the data will be detailed economic analysis using state of the art panel data methods.
B) Policy: The Bank and Treasury are both responding to the Brexit shock with only limited guidance on its impact on the UK economy. Having a minimum panel of 2500 firms at high frequency (monthly) will provide the data that we (and others) can use to explore uncertainty, subjective views of economic conditions and investment, sales and employment impacts by region and industry. We will introduce specialized questions to evaluate policy announcements on Brexit dates, policy positions on trade, immigration and steps to mitigate its impact.
C) Data: Following on prior projects we will rapidly make available public indices of sales, investment, employment and price sentiments (e.g. the size weighted average monthly expected changes, and some lower frequency regional and industry indices). This will be extremely useful for policy makers, but also private firms trying to navigate the Brexit process. Secondly, we will provide on-line anonymized micro-data for business users and academics, and for registered users the full micro-data (confidentially). Our commitment to do this is highlighted by the extensive online provision in prior projects like www.worldmanagementsurvey.com and www.policyuncertainty.com
This project will provide cutting-edge results, both in terms of the academic analysis but also in the service it provides to key policy institutions such as HM Treasury and the Bank of England. This is made possible by the unique data set developed by a trans-Atlantic collaboration of Professors Mizen and Bloom and the specialist inputs of the C-Is in the Bank of England (Thwaites and Young).
This data would be used for three purposes:
A) Research: We would investigate the impact of the Brexit (and other) shocks, in terms of both uncertainty but also mean impacts. Armed with our large panel of at least 2500 firms per month, and after matching this data into annual accounts data from Amadeus, industry and regional data (e.g. LFS and Comtrade) and ONS micro-data, we will then investigate a number of questions. For example, how has Brexit impacted investment and hiring, how does this vary across regions, industries, firm sizes, ages and growth rates? How is this related to the initial enthusiasm for Brexit, and how are other policies affecting this? Are firms expectations consistent with the eventual outcomes (since we follow these firms over time) and what factors appear to influence these expectations? Are firms over-optimistic (too high mean) and over-confident (too high variance) as is often seen in surveys of senior managers? The project will generate important answers to these questions, which will be used to generate international journal publications, as we draw upon unique and timely data during a period of immense change. The basis of the evaluation of the data will be detailed economic analysis using state of the art panel data methods.
B) Policy: The Bank and Treasury are both responding to the Brexit shock with only limited guidance on its impact on the UK economy. Having a minimum panel of 2500 firms at high frequency (monthly) will provide the data that we (and others) can use to explore uncertainty, subjective views of economic conditions and investment, sales and employment impacts by region and industry. We will introduce specialized questions to evaluate policy announcements on Brexit dates, policy positions on trade, immigration and steps to mitigate its impact.
C) Data: Following on prior projects we will rapidly make available public indices of sales, investment, employment and price sentiments (e.g. the size weighted average monthly expected changes, and some lower frequency regional and industry indices). This will be extremely useful for policy makers, but also private firms trying to navigate the Brexit process. Secondly, we will provide on-line anonymized micro-data for business users and academics, and for registered users the full micro-data (confidentially). Our commitment to do this is highlighted by the extensive online provision in prior projects like www.worldmanagementsurvey.com and www.policyuncertainty.com
This project will provide cutting-edge results, both in terms of the academic analysis but also in the service it provides to key policy institutions such as HM Treasury and the Bank of England. This is made possible by the unique data set developed by a trans-Atlantic collaboration of Professors Mizen and Bloom and the specialist inputs of the C-Is in the Bank of England (Thwaites and Young).
Planned Impact
The project is intended to assess the ongoing process of exit from the EU following the referendum result on 23 June 2016 by recording monthly data on uncertainty and business decisions about investment, employment and financing. This has evident impact on monetary and fiscal policymaking and on trade and exit negotiations. Brexit is the largest current policy issue and in collecting this survey data we can provide real-time information by region, industry and firm type to the two of the UK's leading policy making institutions (HM Treasury, Bank of England). Their directly support and involvement in this project highlights how this is a critical issue to them.
We have designed the survey to ensure we address key questions of interest to policymakers to maximize the pathways to impact e.g. through the design of special Brexit questions. A letter from Andy Haldane (attached), Chief Economist at the Bank, is sent to potential panel members as part of the recruitment strategy to ensure take up by firms invited to participate in the decision maker panel. The performance of the survey will be regularly reviewed by a steering group with representatives from HMT, Bank and academia.
Senior policy advisors and chief economists at the Bank and HMT will benefit from more timely basic information on firm responses to unfolding events surrounding Brexit. They have indicated that the proposed project is of first order importance in providing this information which cannot be obtained from official sources e.g. ONS due to data collection lags. The proposed survey has the critical advantage of being timely, comprehensive and carefully designed to address the immediate issue at hand. Much existing business information becomes available only with a significant lag or, if it is timely, is based on small, possibly unrepresentative samples. Viewing our firm level responses at an early stage will ensure that policymakers make more informed decisions and it will help better understand the implications of Brexit and so enable appropriate formulation of policy. We have appointed non-academic collaborators to ensure our results follow the designated pathway to impact at the Bank and HMT.
Research: The project will span three research areas and aim to produce top-journal publications:
(A) Uncertainty: this project provide new measures of subjective uncertainty matched to detailed accounts and Census micro-data around the Brexit uncertainty shock. As such it offers a unique combination of uncertainty measurement and identification
(B) Productivity: a key driver of firm and national productivity differences seems to be management practices, one part of which is the forecasting competence of firms. Linking this forecast data to total factor productivity (TFP) microdata will allow us to explore whether, for example, TFP firms are poor at forecasting and coping with shocks and change.
(C) Behavioral: There is a growing literature emphasizing the importance of cognitive biases in generating phenomenon like over-optimism (over high forecasts) and over-confidence (forecasts with too low variance). We can directly test this and see how firm conditions (competition, volatility), education and demographics shape this.
Business: By creating monthly indices of the forecast impact of Brexit on sales, hiring, investment etc we can also help UK firms to better plan for the impact of Brexit on their industry and customers. Our prior work with www.policyuncertainty.com - which has been extensively used (and carried by Bloomberg, Reuters, HAVER, FRED) - shows how valuable businesses find macro data.
Data: This survey will be available in full to any researchers working with Bank or HMT co-authors, or working in the ONS. We will also produce a monthly index and on-line anonymized micro-data to encourage data use, building on the experience of prior data-sharing projects like www.worldmanagementsurvey.com used by many thousands of researchers.
We have designed the survey to ensure we address key questions of interest to policymakers to maximize the pathways to impact e.g. through the design of special Brexit questions. A letter from Andy Haldane (attached), Chief Economist at the Bank, is sent to potential panel members as part of the recruitment strategy to ensure take up by firms invited to participate in the decision maker panel. The performance of the survey will be regularly reviewed by a steering group with representatives from HMT, Bank and academia.
Senior policy advisors and chief economists at the Bank and HMT will benefit from more timely basic information on firm responses to unfolding events surrounding Brexit. They have indicated that the proposed project is of first order importance in providing this information which cannot be obtained from official sources e.g. ONS due to data collection lags. The proposed survey has the critical advantage of being timely, comprehensive and carefully designed to address the immediate issue at hand. Much existing business information becomes available only with a significant lag or, if it is timely, is based on small, possibly unrepresentative samples. Viewing our firm level responses at an early stage will ensure that policymakers make more informed decisions and it will help better understand the implications of Brexit and so enable appropriate formulation of policy. We have appointed non-academic collaborators to ensure our results follow the designated pathway to impact at the Bank and HMT.
Research: The project will span three research areas and aim to produce top-journal publications:
(A) Uncertainty: this project provide new measures of subjective uncertainty matched to detailed accounts and Census micro-data around the Brexit uncertainty shock. As such it offers a unique combination of uncertainty measurement and identification
(B) Productivity: a key driver of firm and national productivity differences seems to be management practices, one part of which is the forecasting competence of firms. Linking this forecast data to total factor productivity (TFP) microdata will allow us to explore whether, for example, TFP firms are poor at forecasting and coping with shocks and change.
(C) Behavioral: There is a growing literature emphasizing the importance of cognitive biases in generating phenomenon like over-optimism (over high forecasts) and over-confidence (forecasts with too low variance). We can directly test this and see how firm conditions (competition, volatility), education and demographics shape this.
Business: By creating monthly indices of the forecast impact of Brexit on sales, hiring, investment etc we can also help UK firms to better plan for the impact of Brexit on their industry and customers. Our prior work with www.policyuncertainty.com - which has been extensively used (and carried by Bloomberg, Reuters, HAVER, FRED) - shows how valuable businesses find macro data.
Data: This survey will be available in full to any researchers working with Bank or HMT co-authors, or working in the ONS. We will also produce a monthly index and on-line anonymized micro-data to encourage data use, building on the experience of prior data-sharing projects like www.worldmanagementsurvey.com used by many thousands of researchers.
Publications
Altig D
(2020)
Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
in Journal of public economics
Bloom N
(2018)
Brexit and Uncertainty: Insights from the Decision Maker Panel Brexit and uncertainty: insights from the Decision Maker Panel
in Fiscal Studies
Bloom N
The Impact of Brexit on UK Firms
Bloom Nicholas
(2018)
Brexit and Uncertainty: Insights from the Decision Maker Panel
in FISCAL STUDIES
Bunn P
Firming up Price Inflation
Mizen P
(2020)
Economic uncertainty before and during the Covid-19 pandemic
| Description | • new knowledge generated - Our survey has generated new knowledge about 1. The range of expectations for individual businesses; 2. Business uncertainty measures; 3. Related information on the shape of distributions of sales, employment and investment growth; 4. High frequency data on drivers of business expectations and their relationship to official data releases, global business news e.g. oil prices, food prices, exchange rates; 5. Text data provided by businesses. Having a range of expectations data for individual businesses shows the extent of their confidence in future outcomes and reveals differences between firms about possible future outcomes. Measures of business uncertainty have been shown to be major drivers of a 'wait and see' approach to investment and employment (hence a decline in investment over the period since 2016). The shape of the distribution of firms' sales, employment and investment are revealed in asymmetry and skewness, which has implications for the accumulated effects of shocks on UK businesses as a whole. For example, if the distribution is asymmetric and skewed then negative sales growth at the firm level results in negative growth at the national level. Data on high frequency expectations shows how firms respond to events immediately preceding the survey response and this can tell us how much attention they are paying to business news, official data releases etc. Finally text data provides a great deal of colour to explain why businesses are optimistic or pessimistic, which helps policymakers to get 'inside the heads' of business decision makers. • new or improved research methods developed & new research capability or specialist skills - We have contributed significantly to improving survey methods, producing high frequency, online surveys that release data in near real time to policy makers. The Deputy National statistician wrote that this encouraged the Office for National Statistics to run online surveys, and from this the BICS survey was born. Our questions are innovative and novel, flexible and responsive, while also providing regular core information. The Chief Economist at the Bank of England told us that this was particularly attractive to policymakers at the Bank of England when monetary policy needed to be designed to deal with rapidly evolving Brexit and Covid shocks. We recruited and sustained a business survey that is the largest quantitative monthly survey in the UK, and much larger than any equivalent survey in the US, Germany and Canada. Our methods for recruitment and retention are new and ensure a remarkably low cost per recruited firm compared to other methods offered by official or private sector survey providers. We now have a cohort of survey experts with specialist skills that we can teach others who join our team. The performance statistics of our recruitment team reveal high productivity in a relatively mundane job. • new research questions opened up. Prior to our study, very few methods were available to explore the impact of the withdrawal of the UK form the EU. Our data answered questions such as 'What implications does Brexit have on investment, employment and sales?' because we were able to measure uncertainty and the impact effects of Brexit on firms. We were able to answer the question 'what types of firms are most affected by Brexit?' and since this involved larger, exporting firms, with higher levels of productivity we could document the expected effects of Brexit on future export sales, employment and productivity. Have you met your original objectives? Yes. The original objectives were to: (A) build, (B) analyze and (C) share the data from a nascent Bank of England, HM Treasury, Nottingham and Stanford survey of subjective expectations for UK firms. This survey has grown from a small base to include nearly 11,000 senior executives from UK businesses across all sectors. The survey is representative, timely, flexible and useful to academic researchers and to policymakers. We built the survey using a sampling frame drawn from firms drawn at random from the UK BVD AMADEUS database containing the population of all UK public and private firms. The survey respondents were recruited using a well-trained survey team to a monthly online survey, which provided the raw data and summary data published on a Bank of England website and our own website www.decisionmakerpanel.co.uk The data have been analysed by academics and policy-focused researchers at the Bank of England to produce a number of working papers, blogs and academic articles as well as research supporting media articles, seminar and conference presentations. We share the data on the Bank of England website and our own website www.decisionmakerpanel.co.uk. This data is used by the media, professional economists in the financial sector, policymakers in the Bank of England and government. It is made available as a microeconomic data resource to academics through the ONS Secure Research Service. Several articles have appeared by other academics who make use of the DMP data. |
| Exploitation Route | The data we collect and the research that we produce are all accessible through several channels. First, the summary data and publications are available through our own website www.decisionmakerpanel.co.uk. This is split into sections documenting the methodology, questions, data summaries, analysis in the form of research papers and blogs, citations by others including policymakers for communications purposes, media articles and our own presentations. Second, summary data and many official publications citing our work, speeches and reports to Parliament are available on the Bank of England website. Third, our microdata are provided as a data resource to academics through the ONS Secure Research Service. There are uses by academics, journalists, public policymakers. The findings are also shared with business survey participants through a monthly report letter citing our most recent findings. |
| Sectors | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Agriculture, Food and Drink,Chemicals,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Construction,Creative Economy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Electronics,Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Government, Democracy and Justice,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections,Pharmaceu |
| URL | http://www.decisionmakerpanel.co.uk |
| Description | The research from the Decision Maker Panel has been embedded at the highest levels of UK policymaking in the Bank of England, 10 Downing St, Cabinet Office, HM Treasury and BEIS. The Bank used the DMP in 25 speeches and 33 official publications such as Inflation/Monetary Policy Reports 2017-2021. Bank Chief Economist confirmed said 'the DMP has become an essential tool to the Bank of England and its Committees. The DMP [has] very quickly established itself as a core part of what we do not just on the monetary policy side of the Bank but [also] on the financial stability side.' Our data persuaded the Chancellor to raise allowances in the 2018 Budget permitting over 1,250,000 businesses to invest £19.5bn in the UK economy tax free in 2019-20. They also informed the Prime Minister and the Chancellor's design of 'furlough' and grant support schemes to protect businesses and jobs through Covid-19. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2017 |
| Sector | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Chemicals,Construction,Creative Economy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Electronics,Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Pharmaceuticals and Medical Biotechnology,Retail,Transport |
| Impact Types | Economic,Policy & public services |
| Description | 2019 - References In Other Publications |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Impact | Data used directly by the Bank Of England and taken into consideration when deciding interest rates and the future of the UK economy |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | 2020 - References In Other Publications |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Impact | Data used directly by the Bank Of England and taken into consideration when deciding interest rates and the future of the UK economy |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | 2021 - References In Other Publications |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Impact | Data used directly by the Bank Of England and taken into consideration when deciding interest rates and the future of the UK economy |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | Assessment of UK Decision to Withdraw from the EU - Treasury Select Committee |
| Geographic Reach | Europe |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Impact | - The Bank of England assessment of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration (28 Nov 2018) utilises information from the Decision Maker Panel to set the context of the effects of uncertainty from Brexit on the UK economy (since July 2016) in the Executive Summary (p. 4). It forecasts the likely effects of uncertainty on the UK after withdrawal (pp. 12, 18, 43-44, 47-52, 68, 74, 76-77). The report indicates how the DMP provides intelligence on Brexit preparations (p.19), and shows how DMP information on uncertainty was used to update the Bank's investment model to draw conclusions about slower investment growth. On pp. 22-23 it states "The Decision Maker Panel survey indicates the uncertainty over Brexit has already weighed on firms' investment decisions. The estimates of the impact of uncertainty used in the scenarios in this report are derived from a structural vector autoregression model based on Haddow et al. (2013), which explicitly accounts for the fact that uncertainty and activity may depend on one another. The current level of uncertainty has been augmented to include evidence of Brexit-related uncertainty from the Bank's Decision Maker Panel. Estimates from this model indicate that even a temporary rise in uncertainty can have a quantitatively significant impact on consumption and investment." A footnote to this paragraph cites our Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin article. |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/report/2018/eu-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-a... |
| Description | BEIS ERC - Roundtable - Paul Mizen |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-business-energy-and-industrial-strategy/a... |
| Description | Bank HMT Interactions - Paul Mizen |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Advised into HMT to expand understanding of economic climate and uncertainty |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-treasury |
| Description | Bank of England - MPC - Paul Mizen |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or Improved professional practice |
| Impact | Regular use of DMP data presented and discussed with MPC members as well as being used in discussion within MPC meetings |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/people/monetary-policy-committee |
| Description | Bank of England - Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Impact | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2016/november-2016.pdf p. 3 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2018/march-2018.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2018/november-2018.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2018/december-2018.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/february-2019.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/march-2019.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/may-2019.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/june-2019.pdf p. 4 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/june-2019... |
| Description | Business Productivity Review |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Impact | Response to the Business Productivity Review Call for Evidence. Published by BEIS |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/business-productivity-review-call-for-evidence |
| Description | Cabinet Office - Conversation and Discussion about WFH - No 10 Briefing |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Advised on findings from WFH survey and along with data from the DMP |
| Description | Cabinet Office - July 2021 - Paul Mizen |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/cabinet-office |
| Description | Clare Lombardelli (Chief Economic Advisor, HM Treasury, (19 January 2023) |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Meeting to discuss Key Finding and economic outlook |
| Description | Data Used by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Regularly sited within the MPC minutes and releases. Monthly presentations and reports are presented directly to the MPC for review. Regular correspondence with MPC members to discuss project findings and results surrounding uncertainty and the future effects. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | Data Used by the Office of National Statistics |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Monthly reports are created and shared with the ONS, 2020 saw the start of some collaboration between the ONS and DMP in a bid to better understand the uncertainty presented by the pandemic during the transition period of Brexit. |
| Description | Data Used by the Treasury |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Monthly reports are created and shared with the Treasury to assist in understanding the uncertainty presented by the pandemic during the transition period of Brexit. Regular meetings with central government advisors to report on recent finding. |
| Description | Decision Maker Panel Survey findings - Treasury Select Committee |
| Geographic Reach | Europe |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Impact | The Bank of England Agent's Network, which makes approx. 9,000 visits to UK businesses across the whole of the UK, has sought to engage the Decision Maker Panel as a tool to help them better gauge the state of UK business. We have initiated monthly calls from January 2019 to disseminate results from the DMP to businesses through the Agent network and to co-ordinate our surveys with theirs. Our results have been reported in Agents' Summary of Business Conditions since Sept 2017, and in the Assessment of EU Withdrawal, and in Bank of England statistics in response to a request from the Parliamentary Treasury Select Committee. |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/agents-survey-on-preparations-... |
| Description | Direct Use of Data and Findings In Bank of England Agents Summaries |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Impact | Reports looking at the changing economic climate and uncertainty surrounding Brexit: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/agents-survey-on-preparations-for-brexit.pdf p 7-9 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2017/2017-q3.pdf p 7-8 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2017/2017-q4.pdf p 7-8 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/2018-q1.pdf p 7-9 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/2018-q2.pdf p 7-8 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/2018-q3.pdf p 6-7 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/2018-q4.pdf p 6-7 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/agents-survey-on-preparations-... |
| Description | Direct Use of Data and Findings In Bank of England Agents Summaries |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Quarterly releases in conjunction with the Bank of England's Agents Network: December 2020 - https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2020/2020-q4 September 2020 - https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2020/2020-q3 June 2020 - https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2020/2020-q2 March 2020 - https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2020/2020-q1 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2020/2020-q4 |
| Description | Direct Use of Data and Findings by Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Monthly reports are created and shared with the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy to assist in understanding the uncertainty presented by the pandemic during the transition period of Brexit. Regular meetings with central government advisors to report on recent finding. |
| Description | Gave Evidence to the International Best Practice Advisory Group (IBPAG) - July 2021 |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Impact | The IBPAG helps assess responses to the COVID-19 pandemic by comparator countries in order to inform the policymaking of Her Majesty's Government (HMG). IBPAG advice is generally required on: improving the quantitative analytics underpinning HMG analysis clarifying technical concepts or processes and their significance to analysis making recommendations on how to enhance the quality of analysis suggesting ways to improve monitoring, forecasting and assessment by examining indicators, sources and assumptions The audience was policymakers across government, including senior civil servants, ministers and the prime minister. |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/international-best-practice-advisory-group |
| Description | Inflation Report |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Impact | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2019/february/inflation-report-february-2019.pdf p. 42 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2019/may/inflation-report-may-2019.pdf p. 9, 11, 17-18, 35 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2018/february/inflation-report-february-2018.pdf p 17-18 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2018/november/inflation-report-november-2018.pdf p 15-16 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2019/february/inflation-report-fe... |
| Description | Innovate UK |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| URL | https://www.ukri.org/councils/innovate-uk/?_ga=2.39141475.136892188.1645532289-1987101247.1633434877 |
| Description | Knowledge Exchange: research to practice |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health |
| Impact | The Decision Maker Panel (DMP) - a collaboration between the Universities of Nottingham, Stanford and Bank of England (Bank) - is a unique example of knowledge exchange involving academics and policymakers during a critical period of Brexit uncertainty. DMP, a monthly online survey of 8,000 UK companies, was established to measure UK investment, productivity, sales, employment and economic uncertainty following the EU referendum and to inform policy responses by the Bank and UK government (HM Treasury and BEIS). Professor Paul Mizen (Nottingham) instigated the project because the Bank lacked comprehensive data - in sample size or frequency - to help it make monetary policy decisions under uncertainty. Business insight was too often based on small, unrepresentative samples of data, while official statistics were only available with a significant lag. DMP makes a critical (and original) contribution by providing detailed surveys of business executives' expectations and uncertainty by region, industry and business size (following the example of a similar, but smaller scale, survey run by the US Federal Bank and Stanford). Support was quickly garnered from the Bank and HM Treasury (HMT), and funding secured from the ESRC Impact Accelerator Account (with additional ESRC award from 2017-2020). DMP has helped the Bank conceptualise the type of uncertainty that the UK is experiencing due to Brexit, it has identified Brexit as a major source of uncertainty for firms, with most firms expecting a negative impact of Brexit on sales, investment and higher costs. Critically, Brexit uncertainty has been shown to lower growth in Britain's most productive firms. In late 2016 the Bank could only draw on limited data (see Broadbent 2016), but during 2017 the DMP established a reputation for reliability. Through 2017-18 (and thereafter - see Supporting Material) the economic research insights gathered through DMP were embedded at the highest levels of UK policymaking, far exceeding the partners' objectives. Thus by 2018-2019 the Bank felt able to make extensive reference to DMP in verbal and written evidence to the Parliamentary Inquiry into the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in December 2018, quantifying the likely effects of Brexit uncertainty using DMP data, as did Broadbent (2019). DMP has transformed intelligence for the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, who arranged regular briefings on uncertainty, employment, investment and productivity in 2017-2018. DMP's insights have enabled policymakers to determine appropriate interest rate changes and avoid excessive tightening of policy at a time when lower business investment was holding back economic growth. It has facilitated communication of policy through speeches by the Governor (July 2017), Deputy Governor Ramsden (Nov 2017, June 2018) and Chief Economist, Andy Haldane (Nov 2017), press conferences and through quarterly official publications e.g. Inflation Reports (four), Agents' Briefings (four). This knowledge has been widely shared in media. In June 2018 DMP research contributed to an HMT-BEIS British Productivity Review seeking evidence on drivers of UK productivity to better understand policy interventions to improve UK output per head. Later, DMP evidence persuaded the Chancellor to raise the Annual Investment Allowance fivefold to £1 million (Budget 2018) to offset Brexit uncertainty. |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/report/2018/eu-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-a... |
| Description | Macroeconomic Implications of Trade Policies and Trade Shocks, PIIE-Clausen Center, Berkeley |
| Geographic Reach | North America |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | . |
| URL | https://clausen.berkeley.edu/conference-on-macroeconomic-implications-of-trade-policies-and-trade-sh... |
| Description | Meeting with BEIS officials |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health |
| Impact | Meeting 16th October at BEIS with the chief economic advisor, Mike Keoghan, about the MES and DMP projects including about 5 of his key analytical staff. |
| Description | Meeting with MPC members Catherine Mann (24 Nov 2022, 20 February 2023), Huw Pill (15 Feb 2023), Dave Ramsden (24 Nov 2022), Jonathan Haskel (31 Jan 2023, 13 Mar 2023) |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Meeting to discuss key finding and outlooks |
| Description | Meeting with Prime Minister's Special Economic Advisor on 12 December 2022 |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Discussed current Economic climate |
| Description | Midlands Engine - Paul Mizen |
| Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or Improved professional practice |
| Impact | Working from home will be a permanent feature for many staff, but occupations with higher remote working rates before the pandemic expect to have higher remote working rates as the pandemic begins to ease. There is a difference between work that can be done from home and what will be done from home. Large cities such as Birmingham and Leeds expect to see a large percentage of people working from home. There is evidence of 'doughnut' patterns, where those in city centers and in the outmost areas are most affected. The pattern reflects differences in affluence. If more people are working from home, will their spending on hospitality, such as coffees and sandwiches, also move closer to home? There is unlikely to be a full transfer of spending as services may not be available in the localities where people live. The report estimates that there is a £3 billion, or 1.5% of 2019 spending, desired reallocation of retail and hospitality spending. This translates to around 77,000 retail and hospitality jobs that could be lost or relocated. Some areas are expected to see job growth in Hospitality and retail, like Little Sutton & Roughley in Birmingham, while the city center is expected to see a dramatic loss. However, the estimated losses are uniformly bigger than any gains. These changes will disproportionately affect already affluent neighborhoods. Areas with higher worker densities, like Birmingham, will see a decline in employment densities. This will reduce the need for office space |
| URL | https://www.midlandsengine.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Covid-reallocation-of-spending.pdf |
| Description | ONS Officials - Paul Mizen |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | The Economic Experts Working Group (EEWG) is a non-statutory body established by the National Statistician. It is a strategic, high-level advisory body offering independent advice from authoritative economic experts to the National Statistician and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on the measurement of the economy and the collection and presentation of economic data for the UK. The EEWG meets formally six times a year and consists of nine EEWG Fellows (appointed through open competition), the Group's chairperson, and senior-level ONS representation. EEWG Fellows also have a hands-on role working with ONS staff on specific issues and giving collective advice on strategic matters. The EEWG has an important role in the governance of economic research undertaken by or on behalf of the ONS, providing advice on the relevance and direction of the research for the ONS and economic statistics. ONS officials 28 Jan 22, 10 Sept 21, 8 Sept 21, 24 Aug 21, 30 March 21, 8 March 21 |
| URL | https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/programmesandprojects/economicstatisticstransformation/engag... |
| Description | Results from the Decision Maker Panel |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Impact | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2019/2019-q1/results-from-the-dmp-2019-q1 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2019/2019-q2/results-from-the-dmp-2019-q2 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2019/2019-q2/results-from-the-dmp-2019-q2 |
| Title | Decision Maker Panel |
| Description | The three objectives of this project are to: (A) build, (B) analyse and (C) share the data from a Bank of England, HM Treasury, Nottingham and Stanford survey of subjective expectations for UK firms. This survey has been running since August 2016 inside the Bank of England and now continues under ESRC and Bank of England, University of Nottingham and Stanford University funding. The project collects 5-bin subjective expectations data on sales, employment, investment, costs and other outcomes to gauge the impact of economic uncertainty on firms' decision making. This UK survey is based on two highly successful US surveys by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Board and the US Census, which Nicholas Bloom (co-PI) helped design and run. We have successfully recruited firms to our panel. Our first team manager (Kate Fisher) who held the post for one year, developed a collection of guidance notes for analysts, protocols and detailed spreadsheets to monitor performance. When she left the project in August 2018, she handed over the management role to Julia Leather who has assumed her responsibilities. We have tested and interviewed more than 100 applicants for the analyst positions, appointing more than 70 to work part time. These analysts make first contact with firms from our sampling frame. We train analysts, incentivise them to recruit firms to our panel, and monitor their performance. We now have over 6,000 firms in the panel. Firms that agree to participate have been added to our Bank of England "Decision Maker Panel" and they receive monthly e-mails requesting a response to a very short (4 minute) monthly survey. The sampling frame of firms is randomly taken from the UK BVD AMADEUS database (which we have free access to) which contains the population of all UK public and private firms. We have extensively tested our sample for evidence of bias, in recruitment to the sample and response to the survey given that they have been recruited, and our findings show no bias in responses, and only small (1%) bias in initial recruitment. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2016 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | We have analysed the data to estimate the impact of the Brexit process on investment, employment growth, wages, prices etc of firms across the UK, and by region, industry and type. Our work has been extensively used by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, and has appeared in official publications such as the Inflation Report, Quarterly Bulletin and Quarterly Bank Agents' Briefings. It has been used to answer question in Parliament. Our work has been written up and presented many times to central banks and academic audiences, it has been summarised in media articles in the Financial Times, Times, Independent, Guardian. We have accepted invitations to present our work at prestigious UK and US conferences including special sessions and keynotes at the Royal Economic Society and the ESCoE measurement conferences. |
| Description | Bank of England |
| Organisation | Bank of England |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | In collaboration with the Bank of England we have recruited over 7000 firms to the Decision Maker Panel. - Since July 2016, we have been constructing a real time, monthly survey of business conditions. At the time of writing (November 2018) the survey has recruited 7,000 firms and has a response rate of 45%. - Demonstration of the level of economic uncertainty at the firm level which can be reported as an aggregate measure or at the industrial or regional level. - We can use firm level responses, matched to accounting data through FAME, top analyse the determinants of Brexit uncertainty, such as exporter status, importer status, employer of migrant labour, foreign owned. - Investigation of the impact of Brexit uncertainty on firm-level investment and employment growth, showing a reduction among firms that are more uncertain. These firms are the most productive firms. - The quantification of a misallocation effect, whereby more productive firms invest less and less productive firms invest more, shows a reduction of future productivity growth by about ½ percentage point. In context of very low productivity growth (around 1% per annum) since the great financial crisis this represents a reduction of half a year of productivity growth. - We are also able to observe the expectations, and forecast errors of firms v. actual outcomes and relative to professional forecasters. We can relate these to their characteristics e.g. size, sector, etc. |
| Collaborator Contribution | In partnership with academics from Nottingham and Stanford Universities, the Bank of England has launched a new monthly survey of senior executives in British businesses - the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) - that will enable better measurement of the impact of uncertainty on business decisions. DMP members are polled regularly about their expectations for business conditions and the uncertainty around those expectations. Early results suggest that there is an important relationship between uncertainty and decisions on investment and employment |
| Impact | It is possible to directly attribute the effects of the Decision Maker Panel evidence on monetary policy decisions because the evidence base and deliberations are documented in the Minutes of Monetary Policy Committee meetings and Inflation Reports. These are then explained verbally in 'on the record' statements in Speeches, Inflation Report Press Conferences and evidence to Parliamentary hearings (at the Treasury Select Committee). The Governor noted "that the Bank had been building on the 3,000-member Decision Maker Panel, which had helped in the assessment of the potential impact of Brexit" minutes of a meeting of Court, Bank of England, 11 April 2018 - The Bank of England assessment of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration (28 Nov 2018) utilises information from the Decision Maker Panel to set the context of the effects of uncertainty from Brexit on the UK economy (since July 2016) in the Executive Summary (p. 4). It forecasts the likely effects of uncertainty on the UK after withdrawal (pp. 12, 18, 43-44, 47-52, 68, 74, 76-77). The report indicates how the DMP provides intelligence on Brexit preparations (p.19), and shows how DMP information on uncertainty was used to update the Bank's investment model. |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | Office for National Statistics Collaboration |
| Organisation | Office for National Statistics |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | ONS and DMP have worked together to find ways that the DMP survey and teh new ONS BICS survey could work together collaboratively. We have held several meetings to coordinate questions, compare sample frames and survey overlap. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Bank of England colleagues have been helping to compare the survey sample frame. |
| Impact | No outputs yet, but we aim to agree a framework for working collaboratively during 2021. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Stanford University |
| Organisation | Stanford University |
| Department | Department of Economics |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Rapid recruitment of firms to our sample, the use of five bin subjective probability survey questions and follow up with participants has shared best practice. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Links with universities of Chicago, Harvard, MIT, Bocconi, and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta |
| Impact | fiscal studies article mutiple working papers and seminar presentations presentations at international conferences media articles |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | 2017 - Media Coverage |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | The Sunday Times, December 2017: Only an end to uncertainty will lift all our spirits Financial Times, December 2017: Labour shortage fears could drive up pay UK and EU, November 2017: The cost of Brexit related uncertainty Financial Times, September 2017: Business fears Brexit will hit sales, study finds Market News International, September 2017: BOE CFO Survey: Brexit A Downside Risk But Firms Staying Put Financial Post, August 2017: London losing status with financial firms as Brexit approaches |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/ |
| Description | 2018 - Media Coverage |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | LexisNexis, December 2018: Weekly Highlights LexisNexis AccountancyAge, December 2018: Brexit Forecasts Helping of Hindering? The Times, December 2018: Be braced for more chaos, but give thanks to the Bank EY ITEM Club, July 2018: Will the clouds clear for the economy? GLA Economics, July 2018: London's Economy Today Bloomberg, June 2018: Businesses Are Getting More Pessimistic Over Brexit The Times, June 2018: Brexit pessimism is growing, agents find The Daily Mail, June 2018: Two thirds of British businesses do not see Brexit as a major cause for concern to the economy Market News, June 2018: MNI: BOE Agents: Headcount Seen Falling In Consumer Sector Reuters, June 2018: UK consumer economy slows, manufacturing perks up in BoE, EU surveys The Guardian, April 2018: For British bosses a bigger headache than Brexit is emerging ICAEW, April 2018: Brexit's role in global growth trends MNI, March 2018: Downside Infla Risks Cloud BOE Rate Rise Message The Guardian, March 2018: Firms handing out inflation-beating pay rises, says Bank of England City A.M, March 2018: Businesses set to boost investment and expect price inflation to slow Financial Times, March 2018: Factories set to step up investment The Independent, February 2018: Brexit 'dampening' UK productivity growth warns deputy Bank of England Governor Dave Ramsden Financial Times, February 2018: BoE surveys point to long-awaited pay rise for UK workers Reddit, February 2018: Brexit wiped out £7.7bn of business investment, says Bank of England The Sunday Times, February 2018: Brexit wiped out £7.7bn of business investment, says Bank of England Bloomberg, February 2018: Wages to Migration: Some Takeaways From the BOE Inflation Report Gestion, January 2018: BoE: Incertidumbre por Brexit perjudica inversiones en Reino Unido MTA, January 2018: Economic Data This Week |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/ |
| Description | 2019 - Media Coverage |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Bloomberg, November 2019: UK Businesses Put Probability of Brexit Deal in 2020 Below 50% Reuters, November 2019: Brexit Impasse Takes its Toll on British Business Investment The New York Times, November 2019: Brexit Impasse Takes its Toll on British Business Investment The Telegraph, October 2019: Businesses Tell Westminster to 'Get It Sorted' on Brexit as Investment Spending Lags Investors Chronicle, October 2019: Brexit: Trick or Treat? Wall Street Journal, October 2019: Financial Markets Face Fresh Wave of Political Uncertainty: 'There's Literally Nowhere To Hide' The Australian, October 2019: Brexit Fatigue Huirting British Business The NBER Digest, October 2019: Brexit Uncertainty is Taking It's Toll on The British Economy The Telegraph, October 2019: UK Damaged 'Speed Limit' for Growth Could Hamper Bank of England Lowering Rates Says Deputy Governor The Spectator, October 2019: Why Ken Fisher Thinks Brexiting Should be Bullish The Economist, October 2019: Uncertainty About Brexit is Hampering Business Investment in Britain Fortune, October 2019: 'Nobody Knows What to Do:' How 3 Years of Brexit Uncertainty Has Paralysed British Business Financial Times, October 2019: Fall in UK Labour Productivity is Worst in 5 Years The Telegraph, October 2019: Economy Takes £20bn Hit From Business Investment Plunge Since Brexit Vote Bloomberg, October 2019: Productivity Suffers as UK Managers Focus on Brexit Readiness Financial Times, September 2019: Entrenched Uncertainty is a Global Problem Independent, September 2019: Brexit if Hurting the UK Productivity, and Wages With It Financial Times, August 2019: Brexit Has Cut Productivity by up to 5% says Bank of England Reuters, August 2019: Brexit Planning Cut Productivity of UK Firms - Bank of England The Daily Mail, August 2019: Brexit Planning Cut Productivity of UK Firms - Bank of England The New York Times, August 2019: Brexit Planning Cut Productivity of UK Firms - Bank of England Bloomberg, August 2019: Brexit Planning Cut Productivity of UK Firms - Bank of England The Economist, August 2019: The Chilling Economic Effects of Brexit Uncertainty are Intensifying Business Telegraph, August 2019: Brexit Cuts Productivity by up to 5%, Says Bank of England Bloomberg, July 2019: Bank of England Agents Help Policy Makers See Through Brexit Economic Noise ADVFN, July 2019: UK in the Brexit Dumpster Yahoo Finance UK, June 2019: British Firms Stockpile £6.6bn of Goods in Run-Up to Brexit Resolution Foundation, March 2019: Spring forward or fall back? Business Marker News, February 2019: Bank of England expects UK economy to grow by just 1.2% in 2019 Central Banking, February 2019: BoE paper outlines results of uncertainty experiment Financial Times, January 2019: Economists Predict the UK Economy's Trajectory in 2019 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/ |
| Description | 2019 - References In Other Publuications |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, December 2019, p. 4, p. 7 Speech by Jonathan Haskel (Member of the MPC), December 2019, p. 4 -5, p. 9-10 Monetary Policy Report, (Data/Charts), November 2019, p. 2, p. 8, p. 20, p. 23, p. 38-43 Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, November 2019, p. 4 Speech by Gertjan Vlieghe (External Member of the MPC), October 2019, p. 16 Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), September 2019, p. 2-5, p 8, p. 10 Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, September 2019, p. 4, p. 6, p. 8 Inflation Report, August 2019, p. 7, p. 10-11, p. 18, p. 29, p. 33 Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, August 2019, p. 3-4, p. 7 Speech by Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England), July 2019, p. 12 Speech by Andy Haldane (Member of the MPC), July 2019, p. 27, p. 33 Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, June 2019, p. 4 Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), June 2019, p. 9 Speech by Dave Ramsden, (Deputy Governor and Member of the MPC),May 2019, p. 9 Inflation Report, May 2019, p. 9, p. 11, p. 17, p. 30, p. 35 Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, May 2019, p. 4 Summary of the NIESR Business Conditions Forum - The Impact of Uncertainty on the UK Economy, May 2019 Speech by Ben Broadbent (Member of the MPC), May 2019, p. 2 and p. 9 National Institute Economic Review No 248, May 2019, p. 1-2 Speech by Jonathan Haskel (Member of the MPC), March 2019, p. 14 -15 Agents' Summary of Business Conditions, March 2019, p. 1, p. 8-9 Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, March 2019, p. 4-6 Speech by Gertjan Vlieghe (External Member of the MPC), February 2019, p. 9 Inflation Report, February 2019, p. 9, p. 10, p. 16-17, p. 41-42 Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, February 2019, p. 4 Speech by Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England), February 2019, p. 1 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | 2020 - Media Coverage |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Financial Times, December 2020: UK Services Activity Better Than Expected, Despite New Covid Curbs Bloomberg, November 2020: BOE's Ramsden Says Unclear if Vaccine Warrants Boost to Forecast Reuters, November 2020: Bank of England's Ramsden Sees Plus For Economy From Vaccine News The Telegraph, November 2020: Third of Hotels and Restaurants Fear Collapse Over 'Tough Winter' The Wall Street Journal, September 2020: The Stock Market Barely Faltered in the 1918-20 Pandemic. Is History Repeating Itself? Financial Times, August 2020: Central Bankers Grapple with Changed Landscape at Jackson Hole The New York Times, August 2020: As Uncertainty Threatens U.S. Growth, Fed Seeks More Firepower The Sunday Times, August 2020: V, W or Aarrgh? It Depends on the Virus - And Jobs The Times, August 2020: New Thinking For a New Normal: Embrace Change or Be Left Behind Sunday Times, June 2020: The Floor's The Limit - We Must Avoid Negative Interest Rates Chicago Booth Review, April 2020: The US economy Could Contract 11 Percent in 2020 Financial Times, March 2020: Bank of England Warns of 'Very Sharp' Economic Downturn New York Times, March 2020: More Firms Expect Brexit Uncertainty to Stretch Into 2021: Bank of England Reuters, March 2020: More firms expect Brexit uncertainty to stretch into 2021: Bank of England Action Forex, March 2020: 76% of UK firms expect Brexit uncertainty to persist until at least 2021 Nasdaq, March 2020: More firms expect Brexit uncertainty to stretch into 2021 - Bank of England Markets Insider, March 2020: BoE Survey Shows More Firms See Brexit Uncertainty Lasting Until At Least 2021 Financial Times, February 2020: Business Investment Expected To Pick Up As Brexit Begins To Clear Financial Times, January 2020: Is The UK Set For a Brexit Bounce? Financial Times, January 2020: Will the Bank of England Cut Interest Rates? The Times, January 2020: David Smith: Hoping For The Best on Brexit and World Trade Independent, January 20202: Brexit: Four in 10 Firms Still Think Uncertainty Will Not Be Resolved in 2020 Financial Post, January 2020: UK Businesses Report Fall in Brexit Uncertainty In Dec - BoE Survey MoneyAge, January 2020: Brexit Continues to Cause Uncertainty Amongst UK Businesses The Telegram, January 2020: UK Companies Turn a Little Less Gloomy Over Brexit Impact - BoE Survey Financial Times, January 2020: UK Hit by Sharpest Deterioration in Manufacturing in 7 Years Independent, January 2020: Brexit Uncertainty Lifted Slightly for Business Leaders - Survey Forexlive, January 2020: Cable gives back some of the late-year gains Belfast Telegraph, January 2020: Brexit Uncertainty Lifted Slightly for Business Leaders - Survey Bloomberg, January 2020: U.K. Election Result Reduces Companies' Brexit Uncertainty The Guardian, January 2020: Business Hope Fading for Brexit Clarity in 2020, Bank Says The Sun, January 2020: Election Booster, Print Only (p. 47) Evening Express, January 2020: Brexit Uncertainty Lifted Slightly for Business Leaders - Survey |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/ |
| Description | 2020 - References In Other Publications |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, December 2020, p. 6, p. 9 ONS - Labour Market Overview, UK, December 2020, p. 5 Impact of Covid-19 on UK Businesses - Evidence From the Decision Maker Panel in 2020 Q4, December 2020 Speech by Dave Ramsden, (Deputy Governor), The Potential Long-Term Economic Effects of Covid, November 2020, p. 2, p.11 Monetary Policy Committee Report, November 2020, p. 3, p. 23, p. 38-39 Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, November 2020, p. 5 Midlands Engine, The State of the Region, October 2020, p. 5, p. 18-19, p. 21, p. 23 Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), September 2020, p. 16 Treasury Committee Report, Economic Impact of Coronavirus: the Challenges of Recovery, September 2020, p. 42-43, p. 56 Bank of England, Financial Stability Report, August 2020, p. 20, p. 24 Midlands Engine, Economic Impact of Covid-19, August 2020, p. 3, p. 7 Monetary Policy Report, August 2020, p. 23, p. 42, p. 48 Covid-19's Local Economic Impact on Nottingham - An Initial Assessment, August 2020, Nottingham City Council, Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, August 2020, p. 5 Speech by Andy Haldane (Member of the MPC), June 2020, p. 11-12 Covid-19 and Brexit: Contrasting Sectoral Impacts on the UK ,VoxEU, June 2020 Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, June 2020, p. 6-8 What are the key sources of data for measuring the economy in a crisis?, Economics Observatory, June 2020 Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), May 2020, p. 9 Why Is Uncertainty So Damaging For The Economy?, Economics Observatory, May 2020 How is Covid-19 Affecting Businesses in the UK?, LSE, May 2020 Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, May 2020, p. 2, p. 9, p. 11, p.14 Monetary Policy Committee Report, May 2020, p. 30, p. 36, p. 39-40, p. 56 Financial Policy Committee, Interim Financial Stability Report, May 2020, p. 39 Measuring and Combating the Negative Economic Impacts of Coronavirus, Steven J Davis, Hoover Institution Economic Policy Working Group, April 2020, p. 14, p. 16, p. 19 COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty and Its Consequences, VoxEU Post, April 2020 Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, March 2020, p. 7 Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England) Report to the Treasury Committee, February 2020, p. 3 Dave Ramsden (Member of the MPC) Report to the Treasury Committee, February 2020, p. 1-2 Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), February 2020, p. 4 VoxEU, The Brexit vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the UK, February 2020 Monetary Policy Committee Report, (Data/Charts), January 2020, p. 2, p. 19-20, p. 40-41 Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, January 2020, p. 3-4, p. 6 Monetary Policy Press Conference, Opening Remarks by The Governor , January 2020 Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), January 2020, p. 9-11 Speech by Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England), January 2020, p. 14 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | 2021 - References in Other Publicaitions |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, December 2021, p. 4 European Commission, Annual Research Conference, Vivien Lewis Discussion, November 2021, 12:56 Monetary Policy Committee Report, November 2021, p. 10, p. 25-26, p. 32-33, p. 42-45 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, November 2021, p. 6, p. 9 A Stronger Economy For The British People, Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021, p. 12 Productivity and Business Dynamics Through The Lens of COVID-19: The Shock, Risks and Opportunities, SINTRA, ECB, Chiara Criscuolo, October 2021, p. 38 2021 ECB Forum, October 2021 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, September 2021, p. 8 Monetary Policy Committee Report, August 2021, p. 9, p. 25, p. 38 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, August 2021, p. 4, p. 7 What has coronavirus taught us about working from home?, Economics Observatory, June 2021 What is the future of commuting to work?, Economics Observatory, May 2021 Monetary Policy Committee Report, May 2021, p. 21, p. 23, p. 28-29 Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, May 2021, p. 3 Jonathan Haskel, What is the future of working from home?, Economics Observatory, April 2021 Speech by Michael Saunders, (Member of MPC Committee), Supply and Demand During and After the Pandemic, March 2021, p. 9-13 How has working from home impacted productivity? This UK Survey Has Answers, World Economic Forum, March 2021 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, March 2021, p. 5 Working From Home is Revolutionising the UK Labour Markey, VoxEU, March 2021 Speech given by Andrew Bailey (Governor of the Bank of England), Resolution Foundation, March 2021, p.5-6, p. 10 Monetary Policy Committee Report, February 2021, p. 8, p. 22, p. 25, p. 37-38, p. 43 Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, February 2021, p. 5-6 Dave Ramsden Lecture: The Potential Long Term Effects of COVID-19, January 2021 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | 2021 Media Coverage |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Financial Times, December 2021: Bank of England Seeks To Prove It Is In The 'Price Stability Business' Reuters, December 2021: UK firms Struggle to Find Staff, See Higher Inflation - BoE Survey The Times, November 2021: Can a Four-Day Week Be The Key To Solving The Productivity Puzzle? Financial Times, October 2021: Treating Companies Mean Will Not Keep Them Keen EconomicsUK.com, April 2021: Pluses And Minuses Of The Return To Business As Usual The Times, April 2021: Pluses And Minuses Of The Return To Business As Usual Insider, April 2021: America's Best Work-From-Home Expert Is Bracing For Turmoil The Times, March 2021: Can Go-Karts and Ski Slopes Save Town Centres? The Guardian, March 2021: Our Research Shows Working From Home Works, In Moderation EconomicsUK.com, March 2021: Now the Economy Braces For The Shock of The New Normal |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/ |
| Description | 2022 - References in Other Publicaitions |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, December 2022, p. 5, p. 9 Speech By Dave Ramsden Member of the MPC, That Was The Year That Was, November 2022 Speech By Jonathan Haskel, Member of the MPC: Recent UK Monetary Policy In A Changing Economy, November 2022 Monetary Policy Report, November 2022, p. 64, p. 79-80, p. 84 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, November 2022, p. 6, p. 8 Speech By Dave Ramsden, Member of the MPC: Shocks, Inflation, And The Policy Response, October 2022 Quarterly Bulletin 2022 Q4, Climate Change: Possible Macroeconomic Implications, Bank of England, October 2022 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, September 2022, p. 7 Speech by Catherine L Mann, Member of the MPC: Inflation Expectations, Inflation Persistence, and Monetary Policy Strategy, September 2022, p. 10-11, p. 13, p. 17, p. 23 Shared Stress: Uncertainty, Pay and Recruitment Strains Across the Charity and Private Sectors, August 2022 The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output, August 2022, p. 5, p.14-16, p. 23, p. 28, p. 36, p.39 Monetary Policy Committee Report, August 2022, p. 24, p. 34, p. 57, p. 60, p. 84 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, August 2022, p. 7-8 Shared Stress: Uncertainty, Pay And Recruitment Strains Across The Charity And Private Sectors, Pro Bono Economics, July 2022 Measuring Brexit Uncertainty: A Machine Learning and Textual Analysis Approach, CEPR Centre for Economic Policy Research, July 2022 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, June 2022, p. 4, p. 7-9 Bouncebackability, The UK corporate sector's recovery from Covid-19, Resolution Foundation, p. 20 The Macroeconomic Expectations Of Firms, NBER Working Paper Series, May 2022, p. 4 Speech by Huw Pill, Member of the MPC, The Economic Situation and Monetary Policy, May 2022 Speech by Michael Saunders, Member of the MPC, The Route Back to 2% Inflation, May 2022 Monetary Policy Committee Report, May 2022, p. 56, p. 60, p. 67, p. 76, p. 90-91 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, May 2022, p. 8-9 Intereconomics, On Returning Inflation to Target, April 2022 Speech by Catherine L Mann, Member of the MPC: A Monetary Policymaker Faces Uncertainty, April 2022 Speech by Sir Jon Cuncliffe, Deputy Governor: Monetary and Financial Stability and The Invasion Of Ukraine, April 2022 Speech by Michael Saunders, Member of the MPC The UK Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy, March 2022 Monetary Policy Committee Report, January 2022, p. 20-21, p. 25-26 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, January 2022, p. 5, p. 7, p. 12Speech by Catherine L Mann, Memeber of the MPC: On Returning Inflation Back to Target, January 2022, p. 2, p. 5-7, p. 11 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | 2022 Media Coverage |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Financial Times, October 2022: UK Businesses Predict Record Price Rises Will Offset Higher Wage Bills Reuters, October 2022: UK Business Inflation Expectations Rise In September - BoE FXStreet, October 2022: BOE Survey: UK Business Inflation Expectations Keep Rising In September DailyFX, October 2022: BOE Survey: FTSE 100 Retreats as Sentiment Suffers on Fitch Downgrade and BoE Survey Bloomberg, September 2022: Truss's Energy Aid Boost for UK Mid-Caps May Prove Short-Lived Bloomberg, September 2022: British Executives See High Inflation Lingering for Three Years BNN Bloomberg, September 2022: Christmas Hiring Drives Job Vacancies in Britain to a New High FXStreet, September 2022: BOE Survey: UK Business Inflation Expectations Rise in August Nasdaq, September 2022: UK Business Inflation Expectations Rise In August - BoE Reuters, September 2022: Rising Inflation Expectations Pressure Bank of England Financial Times, July 2022: BoE Under Pressure As UK Companies Plan For Extended Period Of Inflation Financial Times, March 2022: UK Businesses Expect Prices To Soar In The Coming YearFinancial Times, January 2022: BoE Policymaker Hints At More Interest Rate Rises In The Coming Months PoundSterling Live January 2022: BoE's Mann: Hike Now To Keep Terminal Rate Low The Times, January 2022: David Smith: How WFH Averted A Bigger Economic Catastrophe Financial Times, January 2022: UK Business Confidence Takes A Sharp Hit From Omicron |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/ |
| Description | 2023 - Media Coverage |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Bloomberg, February 2023: UK Finance Chiefs' Price Fears Cooled Significantly, Says BOE The Washington Post, January 2023: UK Firms Don't Want to Talk About You-Know-What Bloomberg, January 2023: UK Firms Don't Want to Talk About You-Know-What Financial Times, January 2023: UK Businesses Cut Investment As Interest Rates Rise, BoE Survey Finds Bloomberg, January 2023: BOE Says Outlook for Inflation and Wages Worsens for Businesses PoundSterling Live, January 2023: Key Bank of England Survey Shows No Let up in Wage Inflation Expectations |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/ |
| Description | 2023 - References In Other Publications |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Speech by Huw Pill, Member of the MPC, Gauging (dis)Inflationary Pressures: Comparing Tools and Current Findings, February 2023, Slides, 7, 9-10 Speech by Catherine L. Mann, Member of the MPC, Turning Points and Monetary Policy Strategy Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, February 2023, p. 50-51, p. 53, p. 55, p.62, p.87-88 Monetary Policy Report, February 2023, p. 88 Speech by Huw Pill, Member of the MPC, UK Monetary Policy Outlook, January 2023 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | 2ND EUROPEAN WORKSHOP ON POLITICAL MACROECONOMICS 2017 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | ADVFN, July 2019: UK in the Brexit Dumpster |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Direct reference to the DMP data and findings |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/advfnnews/51561/uk-in-the-brexit-dumpster |
| Description | AccountancyAge, December 2018: Brexit Forecasts Helping of Hindering? |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Direct quotation of DMP data and findings |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.accountancyage.com/brexit-forecasts-helping-or-hindering-businesses/ |
| Description | Andy Haldane - Speech - July 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Direct use of DMP data and findings |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2019/andy-haldane-speech-regional-visit-to-yorkshire-and-humb... |
| Description | BEIS Meeting |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Meeting with the chief economic adviser, Mike Keoghan, about the DMP project. Inclusive of 5 other members of Mike's team. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Bank of England - Quarterly Bulletin, 2017 Q2 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | Quarterly bulletin from the Bank of England, Tracking the views of the British people, evidence from the DMP. p109-120 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Bank of England - Staff Working Paper, No 780 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Working paper released by the DMP team on the Bank of England website. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2019/brexit-and-uncertainty-insights... |
| Description | Bank of England Conference and Panel Participation - December 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Ben Broadbent - Speech - May 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Direct use of DMP data and findings: Over half of the respondents to the Bank's Decision Maker Panel, a survey of over 7,000 firms, now count Brexit as one of their three most important sources of risk |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/investment-and-uncertainty-the-value-o... |
| Description | Birmingham University Seminar |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Bloomberg, February 2018: Wages to Migration: Some Takeaways From the BOE Inflation Report |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Report from the Bank of Englands Inflation report, with direct reference to the DMP project and data. Subscription to Bloomberg required to read full report |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | http:// www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-09/wages-to-migration-some-takeaways-from-the-boe-in... |
| Description | Bloomberg, July 2019: Bank of England Agents Help Policy Makers See Through Brexit Economic Noise |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Direct reference to the DMP data and findings, including stock piling caused by Brexit uncertainty |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-13/boe-agents-help-policy-makers-see-through-brexit-... |
| Description | Brexit as a Misallocation Shock, Chicago, October 2018: |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://a852a7e8-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/pdmizen/welcome/%28Analytical%29_%28UV%29_... |
| Description | Brexit uncertainty has fallen since the UK general election - VoxEU February 2020 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | After months of political stalemate, Boris Johnson's decisive victory in the December UK general election cleared the way for the UK to leave the EU. This column uses data from the Decision Maker Panel, a monthly survey of CFOs from around 3,000 UK businesses, to show that Brexit-related uncertainty has fallen since the election. The fall in uncertainty has been larger among more domestically focused businesses, however, and substantial uncertainty remains around the future trading relationship between the UK and the EU. There are some signs that this fall in uncertainty may lead to a modest pickup in investment, but it is still early days. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://voxeu.org/article/brexit-uncertainty-has-fallen-uk-general-election |
| Description | Business Marker News, February 2019: Bank of England expects UK economy to grow by just 1.2% in 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Directly Quoted - The Bank's Agents and the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) Survey found that "a growing number of companies are increasing stock building but delaying investment in fixed capital in response to increasing uncertainty." |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://marketbusinessnews.com/bank-of-england-expects-uk-economy-to-grow-by-just-1-2-in-2019/196267... |
| Description | Businesses Are Getting More Pessimistic Over Brexit |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Businesses Are Getting More Pessimistic Over Brexit - Direct reference to DMP, Exit from the AU has lowered investment by 3-4 percentage points |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-28/u-k-business-pessimism-over-brexit-is-growing-boe... |
| Description | Campaign for Social Science, June 2020: Social Science Provides An Essential Evidence Base For The Policy Response To COVID-19 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | There is a widespread call for an evidence-based response to the pandemic. 'The Science', we are told, informs the government policy on the medical aspects of the problem. We might reasonably ask what evidence base can social science provide to support the policy response to the economic and business aspects of COVID-19? If government is to look to 'The Social Science', what evidence can it depend on? Our own experience of recent events tells us that the economy has been severely disrupted - many shops have been shut, travel has been restricted, people furloughed or working from home, the schools have been open only to children of frontline workers. This is a situation few of us have experienced before. Uncertainty about the future of our businesses, our jobs and our way of life makes decision making far more difficult than normal. Whether we will return to 'normal' any time soon is equally difficult to determine, since so much depends on when restrictions are lifted, and then whether the pandemic will recede or create a second wave. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://campaignforsocialscience.org.uk/news/social-science-provides-an-essential-evidence-base-for-... |
| Description | Central Banking, February 2019: BoE paper outlines results of uncertainty experiment |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Direct Quotation of DMP data and findings - The team of researchers presents findings from the Decision Maker Panel, a survey of businesses developed jointly by the BoE and the universities of Stanford and Nottingham. The survey was launched in August 2016, a few months after the UK voted to leave the European Union. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/economics/data/4043231/boe-paper-outlines-results-of-un... |
| Description | City A.M, March 2018: Businesses set to boost investment and expect price inflation to slow |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy - August 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | EEA Congress - Pawel Smietank |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | New developments in the world economy - Brexit, Trump and now Covid-19 - have increased calls for economic nationalism. The three papers in this session use rich microdata to examine the actual economic impacts of the Brexit vote and the Trump trade war on firms, workers and regions. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.eeavirtual.org/sessions/brexit-trump-and-de-globalization |
| Description | ESCoE Economic Measurement 2018 conference |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Keynote address to ESCoE Economic Measurement 2018 conference. You tube video available. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.escoe.ac.uk/escoe-conference-economic-measurement-2018/ |
| Description | ESRC Impact Prize - Finalist - November 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Outstanding Public Policy Impact - Near real-time data on UK business activity and uncertainty provided since 2016 by the pioneering Decision Maker Panel survey has helped shape UK government and Bank of England policy decisions in response to the economic shocks caused by COVID-19 and Brexit. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/about-us/escr-impact-prize/ |
| Description | ESRC-GSR Actionable Insights Seminar Series - July 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Dear Paul, On behalf of ESRC and government colleagues from policy and analyst teams, can I thank you again for presenting at our first Actionable Insights seminar yesterday. We thought it was an extremely positive start to the series. The engagement and questions showed interest in your findings amongst policymakers. At peak we had 150 policy stakeholders attend the seminar from across Whitehall, the devolved nations and local policy stakeholders. A breakdown of those attending is provided below. We also had very encouraging feedback from the chair, James Benford. We'll be sending a short evaluation form to attendees for feedback, to help us shape the seminar series and keep interest high. We'd also like to provide a short summary for attendees with any further links or reports to your research that you would like to highlight. If you could provide us with a 250 summary of your talk or research focus; any data or visuals you would want to highlight; and any relevant additional reading materials (send us a link if appropriate) we can include these in our follow up materials for attendees. We'll look to collate these summaries from all the seminars to report on the series as a whole. Once again, thanks for your participation. And if you have feedback for us then we'd be pleased to receive it. With kind regards, Charlotte Attendees, Seminar 1 Actionable Insights GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENTS ONS HMRC DWP DHSC Land Registry BEIS Education HM Treasury DFT MOD DEFRA Trade Cabinet Office Home Office GLA Transport HSSE CMA Communities DFID Environment Agency Food IPO Justice Sport England Trade Remedies UK Export Finance DEVOLVED ADMINISTRATIONS Scotland Wales NI OTHER ACAS British Business Bank UKRI |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/activities/esrc-gsr-actionable-insights-seminar-series |
| Description | EY ITEM Club, July 2018: Will the clouds clear for the economy? |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | Direct quotation of DMP data |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-ITEM-Club-Summer-forecast-2018/$FILE/EY-ITEM-Club-Summe... |
| Description | Economics Observatory, May 2020: Which Firms and Industries Have Been Most Affected by Covid-19? |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Almost all UK businesses have been badly affected by the spread of Covid-19, but some industries have been hit harder than others. Financial market data and surveys of firms themselves provide insights into the scale of the impact on sales, employment, supply chains and business uncertainty. While all industries have been negatively affected by the spread of Covid-19, it has had a bigger impact on some firms and sectors than on others. This is for a number of reasons, for example, due to variation in the risks of infection from different activities, the ability of the business to operate remotely, and the ways that policies have affected the current business of the firm and expectations about the future. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.coronavirusandtheeconomy.com/question/which-firms-and-industries-have-been-most-affected... |
| Description | Economics Observatory, May 2021: Update: Which firms and industries have been most affected by Covid-19? |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Businesses across the UK have been negatively affected by the pandemic, but the damage has not been equal. Certain sectors and certain firms within them have suffered more than others - and many have faced highly uncertain futures. The pandemic has affected all industries, but it has had a bigger impact on some firms and sectors than on others. The risks of infection from different activities, the ability of businesses to operate remotely and the policies to contain the spread of the virus have each played a role. These have all affected current business and expectations about the future. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.economicsobservatory.com/update-which-firms-and-industries-have-been-most-affected-by-co... |
| Description | Escoe - Greg Thwaites - The Impact of COVID-19 on Productivity - November 2020 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | We present forecasts of the impact of Covid-19 on productivity in the private sector of a representative industrialised country derived from a firm-level survey. Our estimates suggest that Covid-19 will reduce TFP by around 5 per cent in the year to 2021Q2. Firms anticipate a large, negative reduction in productivity within firms, which is more than fully accounted for by an increase in the use of intermediate inputs to produce sales. Part of this may not be fully measured in early vintages of official data. The negative within-firms effect is expected to be offset, partially and decreasingly over time, by a positive between-firms effect as employment shrinks most in the least productive sectors, and the least productive firms within them. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.escoe.ac.uk/events/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-productivity/ |
| Description | Federal Reserve Board - Black Swans: New Sources of Global Risks and their Effects - February 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | A group of distinguished economists, risk management professionals and other experts in the financial markets meet twice a year with the president of the New York Fed to discuss financial stability issues and present their views on financial policy. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| Description | Financial Post, August 2017: London losing status with financial firms as Brexit approaches |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | National newspaper - Article uses DMP data http:// https://business.financialpost.com/investing/global-investor/london-losing-status-with-financial-firms-as-brexit-approaches |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Financial Times, December 2017: Labour shortage fears could drive up pay |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Article published in the times. http:// https://www.ft.com/content/bbab2b02-e56f-11e7-8b99-0191e45377ec - subscription required |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | Financial Times, February 2018: BoE surveys point to long-awaited pay rise for UK workers |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | FT subscription required to read full article |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.ft.com/content/e2742878-116c-11e8-940e-08320fc2a277 |
| Description | Financial Times, March 2018: Factories set to step up investment |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Subscription required to access link |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.ft.com/content/89866f58-3270-11e8-ac48-10c6fdc22f03 |
| Description | Financial Times, September 2017: Business fears Brexit will hit sales, study finds |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Financial Times, September 2017: Business fears Brexit will hit sales, study finds |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | http://www.ft.com/content/6adf4c56-9eea-11e7-8cd4-932067fbf946 |
| Description | GLA Economics, July 2018: London's Economy Today |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | Direct reference to the DMP and it's work alongside the Bank of England Agents network. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/londons_economy_today_no191_260718.pdf |
| Description | Gertjan Vlieghe - March 2018 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | In a speech to members of the Confederation of British Industry in Birmingham, Gertjan Vlieghe explains that a tight labour market continues to increase domestic inflationary pressures. Along with strong global growth and diminishing downside risks to medium-term inflation, he argues that this outlook is consistent with one or two quarter point increases in Bank Rate per year over the forecast period. Direct reference to the DMP and Data |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2018/gertjan-vlieghe-speech-at-birmingham-chamber-of-commerce |
| Description | Gestion, January 2018: BoE: Incertidumbre por Brexit perjudica inversiones en Reino Unido |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | French article - Uncertainty over Brexit harms investments in United Kingdom |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://gestion.pe/mundo/boe-incertidumbre-brexit-perjudica-inversiones-reino-unido-224318-noticia/ |
| Description | Ghent - 10th Annual Conference on CB Business Surveys and Liaison Programs (CBBS) - August 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Global Forum on Productivity - Webinar 3: Digitalisation, Intangibles and Productivity |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.oecd.org/global-forum-productivity/events/recordingandpresentations-webinars.htm |
| Description | Government Economic Service, Conference day (HM Treasury) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Formal Government conference |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Greg Thwaites - The Centre for Service Excellence (CenSE) is hosting a seminar on 'The impact of Covid-19 on productivity'. - May 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | This study conducted by researchers from the Bank of England, University of Nottingham, and Stanford University analyses the impact of Covid-19 on productivity in the United Kingdom using data copied from a large monthly firm panel survey. The estimates suggest that Covid-19 will reduce total factor productivity (TFP) in the private sector by up to 5%, falling back to a 1% reduction in the medium term. Firms anticipate a large reduction in 'within-firm' productivity, primarily because measures to contain Covid-19 are expected to increase intermediate costs. The negative 'within-firm' effect is partially offset by a positive 'between-firm' effect as low productivity sectors, and the least productive firms among them, are disproportionately affected by Covid-19 and consequently make a smaller contribution to the economy. In the longer run, productivity growth is likely to be reduced by diminished research and development (R&D) expenditure and diverted CEOs' time spent on dealing with the pandemic. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.business-school.ed.ac.uk/event/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-productivity |
| Description | Greg Thwaites - Workshop on economic lessons from the pandemic - 29 June 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2022-08/Economic-lessons-from-the-pandemic.pdf The COVID-19 pandemic, and measures to control its spread, led to severe economic dislocations. Governments had to quickly redesign systems of social support to deal with these unprecedented circumstances. Economists played a key role in designing and informing these policy choices, and were able to monitor their effects using data collected during the pandemic from a range of sources. This workshop - aimed at policymakers and academics - will bring together economists from a range of fields to draw out the most important policy lessons from the last two years. What consequences is the pandemic likely to have in the short and long term? What were the effects of different policy interventions on behaviour and well-being? And what lessons are there for policymakers tackling future economic downturns? |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://ifs.org.uk/events/workshop-economic-lessons-pandemic |
| Description | Greg Thwaites/Paul Mizen - University of Nottingham - Presentation to Academics May 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presented the 'Firming Up Price Inflation' paper to around 15 academics within the University of Nottingham |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Gregory Thwaites - IMF Research Department on 20 July 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presentation of research activities on 'Firming Up Price Inflation', spoke to the Chief Economist after the event to discuss findings. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.imf.org/en/Research |
| Description | Havard Business Review article |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Written by Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, and Gregory Thwaites |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://hbr.org/2019/03/brexit-is-already-affecting-uk-businesses-heres-how |
| Description | IARIW-ESCoE Conference "Measuring Intangible Assets and The Contribution to Growth" - Paul Mizen - Nov 21 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Slide Pack - https://escoe-website.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/25105816/Session-2A-Management-Organisational-Capital-for-website.pdf |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://escoe-website.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/25105816/Session-2A-Management-Org... |
| Description | ICAEW, April 2018: Brexit's role in global growth trends |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Main focus of article - While the Brexit effect is undoubtedly having an impact on UK business investment, it's important to put the story in the context of global growth trends - Direct quote of Bank Of England Inflation report and use of DMP data |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://economia.icaew.com/opinion/april-2018/brexits-role-in-global-gorwth-trends-oxford-economics |
| Description | IMF Research Department (including the Chief Economist whom I spoke to 1-2-1 afterwards), Covid and Inflation - Greg Twaites |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation of results relating to Covid and Inflation to the INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Ingenuity Network Breakfast briefing with CBI and 50 business leaders |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Innovate UK - Paul Mizen - November 2021 - Board Presentation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Innovate UK is the UK's national innovation agency. We support business-led innovation in all sectors, technologies and UK regions. We help businesses grow through the development and commercialisation of new products, processes, and services, supported by an outstanding innovation ecosystem that is agile, inclusive, and easy to navigate. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.ukri.org/councils/innovate-uk/?_ga=2.5777523.136892188.1645532289-1987101247.1633434877 |
| Description | Institute of Fiscal Studies - June 2022 - Greg Thwaites |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 Ridgmount Street, London WC1E 7AE This workshop - aimed at policymakers and academics - will bring together economists from a range of fields to draw out the most important policy lessons from the last two years. Presentation of data on , Covid, productivity and inflation |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Invited Seminar (Madrid Spain) - PS |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | This was an invited seminar at the Bank of Spain. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Ivan Yotzov - University of Warwick Macro Workshop - October 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Workshop on 'Firming Up Price Inflation' |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/seminars/workshops/?start=03102022&view=fourWeek&tag=Macro%2... |
| Description | Jonathan Haskel Speech - March 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Direct reference to the DMP data and finding |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/will-uk-investment-bounce-back-speech-... |
| Description | July 2021 Annual Conference of the Global Forum on Productivity joint with Italian presidency of G20 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Productivity gaps across firms are large and persistent in most countries and sectors. These gaps, however, present an important potential for lifting productivity if their underlying causes are addressed. To what extent the diffusion of advanced managerial practices and the overall improvement of workers and managers skills can help narrowing these gaps? How can public policies ensure that the digital transformation and the rise of intangible assets, which have been accelerated by the COVID-19 shock, do not exacerbate but rather reduce existing disparities in income and productivity? These questions become even more pressing as governments are in the process of shaping the path to the post-crisis economic recovery. Webinar 3 - Janice Eberly, Global Forum on Productivity: Digitalisation, Intangibles and Productivity |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.oecd.org/global-forum-productivity/events/recordingandpresentations-webinars.htm |
| Description | Lena Anayi - ASSA 2023 Annual Conference - Firming up Price Inflation, Expectations and Uncertainty - January 2023 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Inflation initially fell during the pandemic, but recent increases have taken it to thirty year highs in both the US and the UK. We use data from a large panel survey of firms to analyse the economic drivers of price setting during the Covid pandemic. We show that inflation responded asymmetrically to movements in demand. This helps to explain why inflation only fell modestly in the first year of the pandemic but picked up strongly in the second year. Firm also report expected price changes which respond strongly to recent realized and future forecast aggregate inflation, consistent with adaptive expectations. Finally, we also introduce a novel measure of inflation uncertainty within firms and show how this has increased during the pandemic, continuing to rise in 2022 even as sales and employment uncertainty dropped back. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2023/program/paper/rZZRnesb |
| Description | Lena Anayi - Covid and SMEs Bank of England workshop, 2 December 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presented evidence from the DMP survey on SME performance during Covid-19 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | LexisNexis, December 2018: Weekly Highlights LexisNexis |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Direct use of DMP data: BoE publishes survey on preparations for Brexit and results from Decision Maker Panel survey The BoE published the results of a survey carried out by its agents, which looked at companies' preparations for Brexit, to support the BoE's analysis of the impact of EU withdrawal on the UK economy. In the same publication, the BoE also included the latest results from the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey, which was set up to help the BoE to monitor recent developments in the UK economy and assess the implications of the UK's withdrawal from the EU. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.lexisnexis.co.uk/blog/financial-services/weekly-highlights-6-december-2018 |
| Description | Life changes: these professional sectors largely abandoned by their employees before the Covid - Greg Thwaites |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | 1. In our survey of firms, we ask them about the future path of employment, sales and so on. We expect some firms to shrink and other firms to grow - i.e. we expect reallocation - because this is what they are telling us they expect to happen. Reallocation is important to ensure that labour and capital get to the places that the economy needs them to be. Reallocation is a normal feature of the economy, and our data show that reallocation increased during the 2008 recession. Furthermore, we know that the Covid-19 recession hit different sectors differently, and also had widely varying effects within sectors. So it is reasonable to expect that we will see a lot of reallocation over coming months, and this is indeed what we find in our survey. When it comes to mismatch, we know that a larger-than-average fraction of this larger-than-average reallocation will occur across sectors. To the extent that workers and business are specialised in particular sectors, they may not be well suited to the new tasks that other employers want them to perform. We will also see a geographic reallocation of workers who provide services to office workers from city centres to the places those office workers live. So we should expect to see a greater degree of mismatch than usual. The pandemic is common across the world but there is an additional, specific issue in the UK: Brexit. Brexit will increase the amount of reallocation in the UK, as trade with the EU has become more costly, redirecting resources towards the home market and non-EU countries. To the extent that EU workers previously helped to alleviate mismatches that arose in the UK labour market, this margin of adjustment is no longer available. 2. The process of moving workers and capital from one firm, location or use to another can be costly. Workers need to retrain and build know-how specific to their new jobs. Capital can be physically destroyed when it is no longer needed, as for example when a retail space is refit as an office or a dwelling. These costs will be larger than usual over coming years because, as our data show, more of the reallocation will happen across sectors. The costs will be particularly high for older and younger workers, rather than those of middle age. Other data shows that these groups have been most affected by the crisis, in terms of unemployment and furlough. Older workers will find it harder to change jobs and locations. Younger workers have been shown to suffer large pay penalties if they join the labour market. On the other hand, the increased popularity of home working may afford some workers more time, more flexible employment, and a greater choice of jobs. This could be especially valuable for those with family caring responsibilities, who are disproportionately women. Another positive could be that some high-paid employment may spread more widely across the country. 3. The government should provide extensive support for people to retrain, including for 'horizontal' moves into different but similarly-qualified roles. Furthermore, benefits during periods of job search should be high enough so that workers can take a bit of time to find the best job, rather than just taking the first one. The costs of moving house should not be raised excessively by housing transaction taxes, or by difficulties in relocating when in social housing. On the firms side, firms need to be able to access capital to grow, and also to be able to restructure their workforce without undue costs. Business premises should be able to change their use easily, to accommodate the sharp change in the geographic location of demand for office and retail space. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.atlantico.fr/article/decryptage/changements-de-vie---ces-secteurs-professionnels-largeme... |
| Description | London - EWEPA |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Brexit and Uncertainty: Insights from the Decision Maker Panel - Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University; Philip Bunn, BoE; Scarlet Chen, Stanford University; Paul Mizen, ESCoE, University of Nottingham; Pawel Smietanka, BoE; Greg Thwaites, LSE Centre for Macroeconomics |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | http://www.ewepa.org/ |
| Description | Low Pay Commission - Paul Mizen - September 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | MMF conference @ University of Kent on 5 September - Phil Bunn |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presented data relating to inflation - Firming up Price Inflation, Expectations and Uncertainty |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | MNI, March 2018: Downside Infla Risks Cloud BOE Rate Rise Message |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | With consumption growth easing and intense competition on the high street and online, the agents report highlighted the downward price pressures faced by the retail sector. At the same, the Bank's Decision Maker Panel survey found finance offices also expected price pressures to ease, but their view was on average that inflation would only slow to 2.5% over the year ahead. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.marketnews.com/content/mni-analysis-downside-infla-risks-cloud-boe-rate-rise-message |
| Description | MTA, January 2018: Economic Data This Week |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The Manufacturing Technologies Association Economic Data for the week, featuring the Bank of England Agents Summary of Business Conditions, directly quoting the DMP |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.mta.org.uk/resources/economic-data-week-56 |
| Description | Market News International, September 2017: BOE CFO Survey: Brexit A Downside Risk But Firms Staying Put |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Report on result from the DMP project and the Bank of England agents network |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | http://www.marketnews.com/content/boe-cfo-survey-brexit-downside-risk-firms-staying-put |
| Description | Market News, June 2018: MNI: BOE Agents: Headcount Seen Falling In Consumer Sector |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Direct use of DMP Data - Representatives were, on average, expecting a modest, but more negative, effect from Brexit. Extrapolating from the results the reports authors estimated that the expected negative impact of Brexit on sales had risen to 3% from just over 2%. Brexit was cited as one of the three top sources of uncertainty by 37% of respondents and the authors estimated on a simple regression to have lower business investment by 3 to 4 percentage points in the year to mid-2017. The evidence is that the effect of Brexit on investment has not got any larger since then but nor has it unwound. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.marketnews.com/content/mni-boe-agents-headcount-seen-falling-consumer-sector |
| Description | Michigan - 2019 Comparative Analysis of Enterprise Data (CAED) Conference |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Brexit as a Misallocation Shock Nick Bloom (Stanford), Philip Bunn (Bank of England), Scarlet Chen (Stanford), Paul Mizen (University of Nottingham), Pawel Smietanka (Bank of England), Gregory Thwaites (World Remit) |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://drive.google.com/file/d/1b349ster0XGdqEfx00PZP8wCDnMdQrVH/view |
| Description | Munich - ifo Institutte workshop on expectations data and macrp |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | , |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.ifo.de/ |
| Description | National Association for Business Economics |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Among the audience were representatives from Bloomberg, Haver, FRED who would all like to host our data. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Nick Bloom - "Impact of Brexit on Firms" paper -Dartmouth, European Union and Berkeley |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presenting Brexit data gained from the DMP survey to key policy makers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Nick Bloom, Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: Uncertainty and Recovery (50 mins onward) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation given at Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on the Uncertainty and Recovery of the US economy. Nicholas Bloom presenting from 50 minutes onward. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bvbp9Mf18EM |
| Description | Oct 21 - Productivity Growth: Past, Present and Yet to come - New York Ferderal reserve and Advisory panel - Nick Bloom |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Summary Pre COVID : Labor productivity and TFP growth 2010 - 2019 were 1.1% and 0.6% respectively During COVID : We see in top down (macro data) and bottom - up (aggregated firm) data similar trends - Labor productivity growth rose to about 3% - TFP productivity growth fell to about 0.3% Caused by positive reallocation across sectors and firms, and negative within firm capacity/cost impacts Post COVID : I will discuss one positive and three negative factors that could impact productivity + Working from home likely increases productivity by about 3% to 5% - Lost CEO time, lower capital utilization and supply constraints likely negative, but hard to quantify So, my guess would likely be similar to pre-COVID: LP and TFP growth of about 1% and 0.5% |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.dropbox.com/s/93m5ti2hu6xi0ls/NY_Fed_NickBloom.pdf?dl=0 |
| Description | Paul Mizen - Fifth Banco de España Annual Research Conference - December 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | The pandemic caused by COVID-19 had a very deep and significant impact on economic relationships, especially on international trade, social and employment policies, technological developments, and the macroeconomic context. Against this background, economic researchers and policy-makers are coming to terms with the duration of these changes and assessing how permanent they will be. The aim of the conference was to bring together world leading scholars and policy-makers, in order to discuss the medium to long-run consequences of the pandemic and the policy measures to address them. Pol Antrás, Nytia Pandalai-Nayar, Richard Blundell, Antonella Trigari, Karel Mertens, Paul Mizen, Luca Fornaro, and Michael Weber participated in the Conference. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.bde.es/bde/en/secciones/sobreelbanco/Conferencias/quinta-conferencia-anual-de-investigac... |
| Description | Paul Mizen - King's College London (March 2023) - academic seminar - March 2023 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Academic seminar attended by Paul Mizen to represent the data from the Decision Maker Panel |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Paul Mizen - Meeting with Innovate UK |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | InnovateUK Board would be keen to see a presentation of our findings around a) changing investment patterns after Covid based on DMP data; and b) R&D spending by firms with better/worse management practices. Geeta intends to suggest some dates and then invite us to present for about 45 mins using Powerpoint slides of results. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Paul Mizen - Peter Sinclair Memorial Conference - Birmingham, April 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The Departments of Economics at Birmingham and Oxford are organising a conference in honour of Peter Sinclair, to be held in Birmingham on 7-8 April 2022. Peter was a central figure in UK macroeconomics for more than half a century, so we will be marking his passing by bringing our community together to discuss the very latest developments in macroeconomics and monetary economics. Inflation expectations and uncertainty during Covid: Evidence from firm microdata, Paul Mizen (University of Nottingham) |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/schools/business/events/2022/peter-sinclair-memorial-conference.aspx |
| Description | Phil Bunn - Swiss National Bank (SNB) - SNB-FRB-BIS Second High-Level Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility, 8-9 November 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presented key findings from 'Firming Up Inflation' paper: https://www.snb.ch/n/mmr/reference/sem_2022_03_08_bunn/source/sem_2022_03_08_bunn.n.pdf |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.snb.ch/en/ifor/research/conf/other_academic_conferences/id/sem_2022_03_08 |
| Description | Philip Bunn - 53rd Annual Conference of the Money, Macro and Finance Society - September 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Firming up Price Inflation, Expectations and Uncertainty - Presented by Philip Bunn |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.mmf.ac.uk/conference/2022-conference/ |
| Description | PrOPEL Hub - Paul Mizen - Reimagine Management and Productivity in a Post-pandemic World |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | In this session chaired by Dr Cher Li, Professors Paul Mizen, Nick Bloom, John Van Reenen and Rebecca Riley, leading experts on management practices, business performance and industrial policy, explore future trends in management practices and productivity. Economic uncertainty was on the rise before the COVID-19 pandemic. Research shows how better managed organisations survived and thrived through past economic crises and the current pandemic. The pandemic has accelerated digital transformation, workforce reskilling and new forms of innovation. All of this will require significant experimentation and learning by managers. But it also affords a new opportunity to build better workplaces by reimagining norms around how/where we work and the role of management in enabling these transitions. In this video, Professors Paul Mizen, Nick Bloom, John Van Reenen and Rebecca Riley each bring a fresh perspective on the role of management practices for productivity, building a productive workforce, and current trends and lessons. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.propelhub.org/reimagine-management-and-productivity-in-a-post-pandemic-world/ |
| Description | Presentation at Banque de France, Banca d'Italia, Science Po conference, Paris: Why Did Firms Invest So Little and Hold So Much Cash Since the Great Financial Crisis? An Exploration of Economic Uncertainty |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/paul_mizen_0.pdf |
| Description | Presentation at IMF Research and Fiscal Affairs Departments |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | I gave a presentation of our findings about Covid and productivity |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Presentation at Svriges Rijksbank conference, Stockholm |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Presentation to Blackrock |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation covering the following areas of discussion: Uncertainty rose to incredible levels - our series mostly at all time peaks during COVID pandemic Financial (Wall Street) uncertainty measures falling but real (Main Street) still high ? Uncertainty could slow the recovery by impeding investment, hiring and consumption rebound* https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/CBO1.pptx |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/presentations/ |
| Description | Presentation to Brexit Strategy Group, Nottingham University |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | Presentation to Brexit Strategy Group, Nottingham University |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016,2017 |
| Description | Presentation to Congressional Budget Office |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presenation to include the follow subject areas: Uncertainty rose to incredible levels - our series mostly at all time peaks during COVID pandemic Financial (Wall Street) uncertainty measures falling but real (Main Street) still high ? Uncertainty could slow the recovery by impeding investment, hiring and consumption rebound* https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/CBO1.pptx |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/presentations/ |
| Description | Presentation to Director of Economics and staff, HM Treasury - June 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Presentation to Federal Reserve, Philadelphia conference |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Presentation to Federal Reserve, San Francisco |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | / |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Presentation to IMF Research Department |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Presentation to Vice Chancellor Sir David Greenaway |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation to Vice Chancellor Sir David Greenaway from the University of Nottingham |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | Pre-2006,2016 |
| Description | Public Lecture - Central Bank of Malta |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | This lecture will report on the findings of a major new Bank of England survey of UK firms - the Decision Maker Panel - to assess the impact of the June 2016 referendum. Evidence shows Brexit has created a persistent increase in uncertainty, which has already reduced UK business investment and productivity. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.centralbankmalta.org/en/event-details/62 |
| Description | Quarterly Results Summaries - Released in conjunction with Bank of Englands Agents |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2022 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2022 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2022 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2022 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q2 2022 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2022 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q1 2022 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2021 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q4 2021 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2021 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2021 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2021 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q2 2021 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2021 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q1 2021 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2020 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q4 2020 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2020 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2020 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2020 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q2 2020 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2020 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q1 2020 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2019 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q4 2019 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2019 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2019 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2019 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q2 2019 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2019 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q1 2019 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2018 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q4 2018 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2018 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2018 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2018 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q2 2018 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2018 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q1 2018 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2017 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q4 2017 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2017 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2017 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/results-summaries/ |
| Description | Reddit, February 2018: Brexit wiped out £7.7bn of business investment, says Bank of England |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Article released to highlight the downturn in investment due to Brexit |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/7x7s5o/brexit_wiped_out_77bn_of_business_investment_say... |
| Description | Resolution Foundation, March 2019: Spring forward or fall back? - March 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/spring-forward-or-fall-back-the-questions-facing-t... |
| Description | Reuters, June 2018: UK consumer economy slows, manufacturing perks up in BoE, EU surveys |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Direct us of DMP Data - The BoE's Decision Maker Panel survey of more than 4,000 firms with at least 10 staff showed that just under 40 percent viewed Brexit as one of their top three sources of uncertainty - a figure that has changed little over the past year. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-boe/uk-consumer-economy-slows-manufacturing-perks-... |
| Description | Rome Conference |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presentation at conference on firm dynamics organised by the Banca d'Italia. Mix of academics and central bankers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Royal Economic Society - Workshop on Productivity and Structural Change - Paul Mizen - Nov 21 - Threadneedle Street |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | To be held on 25-26 November, this workshop, jointly organised by the Bank of England, MMF , NIESR and The Productivity Institute is on Productivity and Structural Change, a topic that is particularly pertinent after the still ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. This feeds into one of the TPI themes (Macroeconomic Trends and Policy) and is also related to The Transformed World part of the BoE's Research Agenda. In this hybrid workshop spread over two days we bring together some recent research that we hope will shed light on some of the issues. Physical participation is at the Bank of England Conference Centre in Threadneedle Street with simultaneous streaming as an online interactive event. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.res.org.uk/events-page/workshop-on-productivity-and-structural-change.html |
| Description | SIEPR Economic Summit 2018 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | What's Next for Brexit, Britain, and the EU? - Presented by Nick Bloom |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Seminar to European Investment Bank, Luxembourg |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), June 2020: How Working From Home Works Out |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Working from home (WFH) is dominating our lives. If you haven't experienced the phenomenon directly, you've undoubtedly heard all about it, as U.S. media coverage of working from home jumped 12,000 percent since January. The recent work has highlighted several recurring themes, each of which carries policy questions - either for businesses or public officials. But the bottom line is clear: Working from home will be very much a part of our post-COVID economy. So the sooner policymakers and business leaders think of the implications of a home-based workforce, the better our firms and communities will be positioned when the pandemic subsides. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://siepr.stanford.edu/research/publications/how-working-home-works-out |
| Description | Strathclyde University Presentation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation of DMP findings |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| Description | The Daily Mail, June 2018: Two thirds of British businesses do not see Brexit as a major cause for concern to the economy |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Bank of England reference to uncertainty and Brexit, indirect use of DMP data. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2010,2018 |
| URL | https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5898909/Two-thirds-British-businesses-not-Brexit-major-caus... |
| Description | The Economist, August 2019: The Chilling Economic Effects of Brexit Uncertainty are Intensifying |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Direct citation - After the referendum economists from the Bank of England, the University of Nottingham and Stanford University set up the "Decision-maker panel", a survey that regularly polls executives across the country's industries and regions. In a new paper the researchers examine the responses of 5,900 firms, representing 14% of private-sector jobs, to gauge the effect of Brexit uncertainty on business. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/08/15/the-chilling-economic-effects-of-brexit-u... |
| Description | The Guardian, April 2018: For British bosses a bigger headache than Brexit is emerging |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Indirect use of DMP data, DMP data reflected through the Agents network finding of 2/5 of more than 3k firms that they surveyed had not spend any time at all on a weekly basis planning for Brexit |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/09/for-british-bosses-a-bigger-headache-than-brexit-is... |
| Description | The Guardian, March 2018: Firms handing out inflation-beating pay rises, says Bank of England |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Pres release directly stating DMP project |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/mar/28/markets-nervous-after-tech-shakeout-and-ahead-o... |
| Description | The Independent, February 2018: Brexit 'dampening' UK productivity growth warns deputy Bank of England Governor Dave Ramsden |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Article looking at the impact of Brexit, direct reference to the DMP and data |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-uk-productivity-growth-bank-of-england-dave-... |
| Description | The Productivity Institute Research Conference - Paul Mizen - November 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.productivity.ac.uk/events/the-productivity-institute-research-conference-2/ |
| Description | The Sunday Times, December 2017: Only an end to uncertainty will lift all our spirits |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Article relating to the uncertainty from the referendum and the Brexit deadline |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/david-smith-only-an-end-to-uncertainty-will-lift-all-our-spirits-... |
| Description | The Sunday Times, February 2018: Brexit wiped out £7.7bn of business investment, says Bank of England |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | . |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-wiped-out-7-7bn-of-business-investment-says-bank-of-englan... |
| Description | The Times, December 2018: Be braced for more chaos, but give thanks to the Bank |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Direct link to DMP and Brexit Uncertainty Subcription required to read full article |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/david-smith-be-braced-for-more-chaos-but-give-thanks-to-the-bank-... |
| Description | The Times, June 2018: Brexit pessimism is growing, agents find |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Subscription required to access |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-reports-that-most-businesses-expect-brexit-to-hit... |
| Description | The economic impact of coronavirus on UK businesses: Early evidence from the Decision Maker Panel - VoxEU March 2020 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The spread of COVID-19 has created an important new source of concern for firms. This column reports the findings of the latest Decision Maker Panel survey of UK CFOs, which show that businesses expected the spread of the virus to have a large impact on their sales over the next year. The impacts on sales were expected to be material across all sectors, but businesses in accommodation and food, leisure and transport services expected to be most severely impacted. The survey also suggests that COVID-19 is now a more important source of uncertainty than Brexit for most UK businesses. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://voxeu.org/article/economic-impact-coronavirus-uk-businesses |
| Description | Thu, May 27 11:00 AM Speaker: Paul Mizen, University of Nottingham Host: Kevin Kliesen "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity" |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Thu, May 27 11:00 AM Speaker: Paul Mizen, University of Nottingham Host: Kevin Kliesen "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity" |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://research.stlouisfed.org/conferences/econ_sem/past.html |
| Description | UK and EU, November 2017: The cost of Brexit related uncertainty |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Article looking at the Economic cost of uncertainty on the run up to Brexit from the Results of the referendum. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-cost-of-brexit-related-uncertainty/ |
| Description | University of Edinburgh - Seminar May 2021 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Nick Bloom presentation on findings from both Covid and Brexit grant |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.ed.ac.uk/economics/research/seminars/semester-two-20-21 |
| Description | University of Nottingham, Vision, June 2020: Integrated, Agile Evidence From Social Scientists is Helping Policymakers Respond to COVID-19 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Integrated, agile evidence from social scientists is helping policymakers respond to COVID-19 The ability to supply reliable business data in almost real-time limits the damage caused by uncertainty and is helping the UK plan for recovery |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/vision/integrated-agile-evidence |
| Description | VOx-EU - Jan 2021 - The impact of Covid-19 on productivity |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The Covid-19 shock has had asymmetric effects across sectors of the economy, with those sectors that involve the most social contact in consumption bearing the brunt. This column uses data from the Decision Maker Panel business survey data to assess how the spread of Covid-19 and measures to contain it are likely to affect productivity. It estimates total factor productivity in the UK private sector is likely to be lower than it would have been, by up to 5% in 2020 Q4, falling back to a 1% reduction in the medium term. Firms anticipate a large reduction in 'within-firm' productivity, primarily because measures to contain Covid-19 are expected to increase intermediate costs. Since the pandemic disproportionally affected firms in low-productivity sectors, and the least productive firms within these sectors, these become a smaller part of the economy and therefore a positive 'between-firm' reallocation effect partially offsets the negative 'within-firm' effect. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://voxeu.org/article/impact-covid-19-productivity |
| Description | Venice - CINTIA Workshop - June 2019 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Understanding Brexit-Related Uncertainties Exploration of the Decision Maker Panel Survey SMIETANKA PAWEL |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| URL | https://cintia-italy.it/events/157-workshop-expectations-and-risks-affecting-households-and-firms-mi... |
| Description | VoxEU |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | New survey evidence on the impact of Brexit on UK firms Nicholas Bloom, Paul Mizen 05 October 2017 UK economic performance has been poor since the vote to leave the EU in June 2016, but has not been the catastrophe that many predicted. This column draws four results from the evidence gathered in the new Decision Maker Panel survey of around 2,500 businesses in the UK. While most firms expect a negative impact of Brexit on sales, investment and costs, only larger firms and those that are more exposed to international markets are likely to think that they might move part of their business abroad. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| URL | http://voxeu.org/article/new-survey-evidence-impact-brexit-uk-firms |
| Description | VoxEU Post, January 2021: The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The Covid-19 shock has had asymmetric effects across sectors of the economy, with those sectors that involve the most social contact in consumption bearing the brunt. This column uses data from the Decision Maker Panel business survey data to assess how the spread of Covid-19 and measures to contain it are likely to affect productivity. It estimates total factor productivity in the UK private sector is likely to be lower than it would have been, by up to 5% in 2020 Q4, falling back to a 1% reduction in the medium term. Firms anticipate a large reduction in 'within-firm' productivity, primarily because measures to contain Covid-19 are expected to increase intermediate costs. Since the pandemic disproportionally affected firms in low-productivity sectors, and the least productive firms within these sectors, these become a smaller part of the economy and therefore a positive 'between-firm' reallocation effect partially offsets the negative 'within-firm' effect. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://voxeu.org/article/impact-covid-19-productivity |
| Description | VoxEU Post, March 2020: The Economic Impact of Coronavirus on UK Businesses |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The spread of COVID-19 has created an important new source of concern for firms. This column reports the findings of the latest Decision Maker Panel survey of UK CFOs, which show that businesses expected the spread of the virus to have a large impact on their sales over the next year. The impacts on sales were expected to be material across all sectors, but businesses in accommodation and food, leisure and transport services expected to be most severely impacted. The survey also suggests that COVID-19 is now a more important source of uncertainty than Brexit for most UK businesses. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://voxeu.org/article/economic-impact-coronavirus-uk-businesses |
| Description | VoxEU Post, May 2020: Coronavirus Expected To Reduce UK Firms' Sales By Over 40% In Q2 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The spread of Covid-19 and the measures to contain it are having a significant impact on many countries around the world. This column presents results from a survey of CFOs conducted in mid-April 2020, which show that businesses in the UK expected the spread of Covid-19 to reduce sales by just over 40%, relative to what would have otherwise happened. Large impacts on employment and investment were also expected. The impacts were expected to be concentrated in low productivity, low wage sectors. Failures in supply chains are likely to be a factor holding back output too. There was a further large increase in uncertainty in April. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://voxeu.org/article/coronavirus-expected-reduce-uk-firms-sales-over-40-q2 |
| Description | VoxEU, Nov 2018 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Direct reference to the DMP and Data - 4 charts utilised within report Responses from the latest survey of around 3,000 businesses in the UK, using the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel (Bank of England 2018),1 give us four key findings about the level and impact of Brexit uncertainty. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
| URL | https://voxeu.org/article/rising-brexit-uncertainty-has-reduced-investment-and-employment |
| Description | What Works Centre For Local Economic Growth - Monitoring and evaluation during the recovery - Mizen/Riley - September 21 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | This is the last event in a series commissioned by the Government's Cities and Local Growth Unit. The aim is to help local institutions develop their approach to economic recovery, in 2021 and beyond. In this seminar, our speakers will provide evidence-based insights into some of the most important issues facing business post-Covid. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pO_xSV2uuX8 |
| Description | Workshop (New York, USA) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York organized an international workshop on November 21st and 22nd at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The aim of the workshop was to bring together scholars to present their current research involving expectations surveys. The workshop will take place once a year and will alternate between Frankfurt and New York. In addition to paper presentations, the program featured two plenary sessions by Olivier Coibion (University of Texas Austin) and Ulrike Malmendier (University of California - Berkeley). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | World Bank Event |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The COVID-19 pandemic has plunged the global economy into its deepest recession since the Second World War. The pandemic is likely to leave lasting scars ranging from lower investment to the erosion of human capital. Ultimately, this may lower productivity and limit income growth. Conversely, the pandemic also raises the possibility of large structural changes to the global economy, some of which may be productivity-enhancing. How will longer-term growth prospects in emerging markets be affected? What policies should be enacted to limit the damage from COVID-19? At this event, esteemed experts in economics will discuss these questions in light of a new World Bank Group report, Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies. Panelists will consider many possible outcomes for emerging market economies and discuss how they can boost productivity by taking advantage of structural economic changes. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
| URL | https://live.worldbank.org/productivity-growth-after-pandemic |
| Description | XII Annual Conference - Central Bank Business Survey and Liaison Programs at the Bank of Canada in Ottawa - Ivan |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation - We use data from a large panel survey of UK firms to analyze the economic drivers of price setting since the start of the Covid pandemic. Inflation responded asymmetrically to movements in demand. This helps to explain why inflation did not fall much during the negative initial pandemic demand shock. Energy prices and shortages of labor and materials account for most of the rise during the rebound. Inflation rates across firms have become more dispersed and skewed since the start of the pandemic. We find that average price inflation is positively correlated with the dispersion and skewness of the distribution. Finally, we also introduce a novel measure of subjective inflation uncertainty within firms and show how this has increased during the pandemic, continuing to rise in 2022 even as sales uncertainty dropped back. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2022/firming-up-price-inflation |