Rebuilding Macroeconomics

Lead Research Organisation: University College London
Department Name: UCL Institute for Global Prosperity

Abstract

The need for new ideas in macroeconomics is evident. Most macroeconomists not only failed to recognise the weaknesses in the global economy before the financial crisis, their main macroeconomic model specifically excluded the possibility of financial vulnerability. Assumptions about human behaviour and how markets operate have undermined the effectiveness of macroeconomics as a guide for practical policy making.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) is the UK's foremost macroeconomics research institute outside of the university sector. As our mission is to understand the economic forces that shape peoples' lives and to influence policy. We are free of political and commercial interests and the constraints that can inhibit university departments.
Our network, Rebuilding Macroeconomics, would start the transformation of macroeconomics back into a useful policy science. We have created a team of 25 world-class social scientists from economics, psychology, anthropology, sociology, neuroscience, economic history, political science, biology and physics all renowned for challenging mainstream ideas to spear-head this effort.
Rebuilding Macroeconomics will challenge the central assumptions and methods of modern macroeconomics and identify the building blocks for a new and genuinely relevant macroeconomics. Our network will create ran opportunity for scholars, policy makers and practitioners to coalesce around a substantive macroeconomic policy question and to explore, learn from and challenge each other's assumptions and ways of thinking and to consider possible new methods of investigation.
The Rebuilding Macroeconomics leadership team of will provide guidance by finding broad research agendas through a process of both guidance and discovery, through dialogue across the UK, that (a) directly address important macroeconomic policy issues, (b) facilitate research that would not be done otherwise, (c) bring new methodologies to bear in macroeconomics, and (d) that can attract enough scholars to launch and sustain an effective future research agenda.
Our leadership team will commission several targeted proof-of-concept 'pilot projects' that are truly innovative, most promising and additional to existing macroeconomic research. The decisions will be taken in an open and transparent manner as befits public funds. An Advisory Group will oversee the disbursements to ensure that the projects meet our requirements listed above.
The RM network will offer value for money. Most Co-Investigators have signalled their willingness to work on a pro bono basis to maximise the amount of research money available for the best ideas. The allocation of funds will be made public through a transparent process.
NIESR will ensure that the Network engages with the public through social and traditional media. We will use podcasts and an App to describe the 'pilot projects' and reconnect with the public through a series of televised or recorded lively debates on key macroeconomic issues that define our research agenda.
The Network will also engage with other networks in the UK and overseas to ensure as wide as possible influence and to achieve synergies with existing ESRC investments. The team will ensure that the Network is sustainable by engaging with student groups and doctoral students and catalysing innovative and interdisciplinary ideas for policy relevant research. We will look to incorporate some the most promising ideas in school and college curriculums.
At the end of the funding period, the leadership team will carry out a comprehensive review and deliver a roadmap for future macroeconomic research. This will include an analysis of the areas of greatest research potential, greatest policy relevance and the bottlenecks to be overcome to realise the full potential. Given the current exceptional economic circumstances, the Network has the opportunity to have a far-reaching and very positive impact on society.

Planned Impact

The aim of our 'Rebuilding Macroeconomics' network is to start the transformation of macroeconomics back into a useful policy science. The leadership team will challenge the core assumptions and methodologies of the existing paradigm and identify the building blocks for a new and genuinely relevant macroeconomics framework.
NIESR has considerable experience in achieving powerful and widespread impact for its research. The PI has been awarded two high profile ESRC Senior Fellowships with extensive engagement with the public. NIESR's press office will be charged with operating the Network website and social and multimedia. We have considerable convening power and ideal conference facilities in the heart of Westminster. In the run-up to this proposal we held a conference entitled 'Rethinking Macroeconomics' which was almost instantly booked. We had a serving minister, ex MPC member, senior business people and academics as well as policy makers from across the Government Economic Service in the audience.
Given the space available, we describe five beneficiaries of 'Rebuilding Macroeconomics' and how we intend to maximise the impact on each group.
(1) Public: The public will benefit directly and indirectly from the network. We will use podcasts to describe the 'pilot projects': the issue they address, why they matter and the outcomes. We will reconnect with the public through a series of radio programmes on key macroeconomic issues. We will encourage Network members to engage in public discussions through social and traditional media. The public will indirectly benefit from improved policy as a result of greater understanding of the macroeconomy. Given the size of the challenges, this cannot be underestimated.
(2) Policy officials: one of the most important objectives of the Network is to re-connect scholars with policy officials. The leadership team will set the research agenda on the basis of the most important policy priorities as well as methodological issues. Policy officials will be encouraged to participate in the research agendas and offered secondments to work on 'pilot projects' where appropriate.
(3) Scholars: The Network will encourage scholars to undertake creative and inter-disciplinary research beyond the constraints of university departments. 'Pilot project' funding will be targeted at worthwhile research that would not otherwise receive funding. Scholars will have opportunities to work alongside officials and business leaders to understand the context of their research. Academic leaders will host workshops for all interested scholars (inter-disciplinary) specifically designed to address key challenges facing officials and other stakeholders. NIESR's press office will work with scholars to ensure that the research is accessible and reaches the public.
(4) Students: we will engage closely with students at schools and universities to create capacity for a sustainable future research programme. Alvin Birdi, Director of the Economics Network, is committed to building links between schools and the Network. Wendy Carlin, Director of CORE, has agreed to join the Advisory Group and will reflect the findings of the Network on the evolving new economics curriculum. Students be encouraged to join the Network by attending the research workshops. Scholars will be encouraged to suggest future research topics that will be posted on the Network website.
(5) Academic networks and international organisations: Members of the Leadership team are engaged with most of the major economic and other social science societies and networks from around the world including the IMF, World Bank and central banks around the world. The PI is on the management board of the ESRC's Centre for Macroeconomics and well placed to ensure that the ESRC's investments are complementary to achieve the greatest impact.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description Key Achievement 1: The original set of 37 projects funded via Rebuilding Macroeconomics (RM) were completed by April 2021. The grant then transferred to UCL as of 31 May 2021, and was allowed a further extension to 30 September 2022 in order to fund three further projects and to complete the writing up of the results as the 'Road Map'. The final three projects have now been selected for funding, and their findings should be available by the end of 2022 to complement the ideas to be advanced in the 'Road Map'. This means a total of 40 interdisciplinary research pilot studies were funded by RM compared to the 24 envisaged in the grant proposal. These pilot studies were chosen by issuing curated open calls for research.

Key Achievement 2: An important measure of academic success for a large ESRC award is publications. We did not aim for peer reviewed journal articles, as our primary aim was pilot projects (proof of principle) rather than submissions to journals. However, there are currently 122 publications on the RM Researchfish record, of which 64 are Working Papers and 21 are Discussion Papers. We know of 37 papers in peer-reviewed journals as a direct result of the RM grant. This includes papers accepted to the most competitive economics publications, including the Journal of Political Economy and Econometrica. While this was not an objective of the RM project, it is gratifying to know that the research is considered as meeting the high standards of peer reviewed journals.

Key Achievement 3: RM has held over 40 workshops (all open to the public). The RM Centre also held two types of annual events: three annual conferences - all over two days - and four 'Women in Macroeconomics' events (online after the onset of Covid-19). We formed partnerships with universities, research centres and student groups as well as policy institutions such as New Approaches to Economics Challenges (NAEC, OECD), Bank of England and IMF. We also held a series of special workshops around Covid as well as redirecting resources to support research in response to the crisis. RM has nearly 10,000 followers on Twitter, a newsletter mailing list of nearly 2,000, participated in over 80 engagement activities and its video recordings have nearly 17,000 viewings.

Key Achievement 4: The 'Road Map' is to include a new viable direction for macroeconomics which complements the ESRC's existing investments. This proposal weaves together many of the threads from research projects funded through this investment. We call this approach Social Macroeconomics which is macroeconomics based on practical decision making in a world of partial ignorance due to radical uncertainty. The value that we attach to our social relations as an end in themselves provides some personal agency to reorganise within groups to address the challenges we face arising from a radically uncertain future. This perspective is gaining traction in a number of research forums such as the OECD.

What does Social Macroeconomics offer policy-makers beyond 'mainstream' analysis? In addition to different perspectives on core monetary and fiscal questions, it offers a return to the time- honoured big macroeconomic policy questions of wealth creation, distribution and sustainability. Rather than being limited to a surface-level re-arrangements of resources, it suggests a review of the rules of interaction, often mediated by institutions, to seek a deeper change in the economic order. For example, the undersupply of innovation (productivity) and oversupply of pollution (climate change) can be seen as Commons Problems requiring the development of institutions to promote cooperative behaviour rather than only being addressed by subsidies and taxes. The institutional reform to create a vaccine for Covid is a case in point.

Key Achievement 5: Rebuilding Macroeconomics submitted its Final Report to the ESRC within its deadline. We consider that all contractual obligations have been met. The one outstanding item is the 'Road Map' which is still being written. A key idea of RM is that once the grant had expired and the pilot projects completed, there would be enough momentum to continue the network. The PI of RM begins teaching at UCL in September on ideas from the grant, we continue to publish a newsletter and papers from collaborators. We are hosting a two-day conference with the Bank of England at the end of March featuring two Nobel prize winners which will discuss non-equilibrium economics, or Social Macroeconomics, as part of the agenda.
Exploitation Route As noted previously, we believe that a consensus of ideas is emerging from the various activities undertaken by Rebuilding Macroeconomics and other organisations with similar agenda profiles, which are pointing towards the need for future research and dialogue under the overall heading of 'Social Macroeconomics'. It is hoped that the 'Road Map' report, once it has been reviewed by ESRC, will be made available to a wider audience, and will attract interest from other research bodies with interests in reforming Economics, in concepts of Complexity, and in decision-making under conditions of radical uncertainty. We continue to receive considerable interest in these developments from the policy-makers who have attended our events, or with whom we have been in contact in other ways.
Sectors Creative Economy,Education,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Government, Democracy and Justice

URL https://www.rebuildingmacroeconomics.ac.uk
 
Description Outside of academia, our ideas around Social Macroeconomics, or non-equilibrium economics, continue to be widely discussed. We have an upcoming two-day public conference co-hosted at the Bank of England with over 400 attendees expected (150 in person and 250 online). We have begun to restart blogging on issues with a social macroeconomic perspective. We are invited to hold public lectures at universities and for institutions such as the Institute for Actuaries. The PI is on the Advisory Group of an international research consortia sponsored by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) which formulated the Government's lead research initiative at COP26. There are numerous other examples of non-academic engagement from being a regular contributor to the OECD initiatives to economists from the Government Economic Service attending our events. Two of our leading grantees recently gave a lecture at the Royal Society of Arts with the most viewers of any project. The ideas were, in part, developed within the RM network and acknowledged as such.
First Year Of Impact 2021
Sector Education,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Societal,Economic,Policy & public services