Social and Political Change in Britain: Gallup Polls 1945-1991

Lead Research Organisation: University of Southampton
Department Name: Sch of Economic, Social & Political Sci

Abstract

How have public attitudes on key political, social and economic issues changed since the Second World War? How do those changes vary across different groups in society? From the 1930s to the early 2000s, the survey organisation Gallup conducted around three thousand surveys of the social, political and economic attitudes of the British public. At the time, these opinion polls provided valuable insights on how the public thought about key issues, personalities and events of the day - the government, the party leaders, international crises, support for specific policies, and so on - with national level results reported in monthly Gallup reports and in the news media. To date, only a small fraction of the original surveys have seen the light of day. A recent discovery by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Cornell revealed a veritable treasure trove of important historical Gallup survey data - around 2,500 surveys covering the period between 1945 and 1991 - stored in 'column binary format' based on antiquated IBM punch cards, rendering them inaccessible to most researchers today. Processing and digitising this data presents a major technical challenge, but offers the prospect of enhancing understanding of social and political change in Britain between the 1940s and 1990s.

This project will develop a unique dataset that enables researchers to analyse how the major political, economic, and social shifts between the 1940s and 1990s influenced the dynamics of public opinion in Britain. It will firstly digitise all the codebooks of all Gallup surveys over the period between 1945 and 1991 (making them searchable online by researchers). It will further digitise around 700 surveys that contain questions relating to social, political and economic issues (and will specifically select 100 of these surveys through a user-led exercise enabling researchers to nominate those surveys to be prioritised for digitisation). It will also create a 'merged' dataset of individual surveys that combines repeated cross-sectional measures of public attitudes and demographics - enabling researchers to track changes in public opinion by subgroup over time. Using this new data resource, it will explore long-term trends in social and political attitudes in Britain, their reaction to key events and how they vary across different cross-sections of society.

The objectives of the project are as follows:

* To digitise codebooks of all surveys conducted by the UK Gallup Poll between 1945 and 1991.
* To convert 700 individual surveys conducted by the UK Gallup Poll between 1945 and 1991 from column binary data to current software and non-proprietary formats.
* To create a merged time series dataset based on individual surveys that offers a repeated cross-sectional measures of public opinion.
* To facilitate and promote the use of this new data resource by other researchers.
* To enable educational and public use of longitudinal data on public opinion through the development of web-based data visualisation tools.
* To use this new data infrastructure to track and understand long-term dynamics of public opinion in Britain, especially across different groups (e.g. partisans, by age).

Planned Impact

The project has been designed with an emphasis on the end user, with the broader aim of creating a data infrastructure that builds research capacity as well as providing an accessible educational resource for the study of public opinion. Prospective beneficiaries from the project include academic researchers (from undergraduate level upwards) across many disciplines, survey researchers in commercial and non-governmental organisations, researchers in think tanks and political parties, teachers at schools and universities, wider publics and media with an interest in public opinion.

Our engagement and dissemination strategies will target key audiences in a range of ways. We have already engaged with potential users via recruitment of our prospective advisory board - drawn from a number of academic disciplines and fields. Further, the design of the project builds in user engagement at different stages (such as in the selection of individual surveys for digitisation, beta-testing of datasets, and training workshops), to ensure that the impact of the research is maximised based on guidance of stakeholders. The project is additionally expected to facilitate the production of research outputs that contribute to important current debates in the study of public opinion in Britain.

We believe that the research project will benefit the following groups:

* Data users: the outputs from the project primarily relate to the construction of data infrastructure based on the archive of Gallup UK polls, and the building of research capacity through the delivery of training workshops for data users. The repository of around 700 individual-level survey datasets and merged dataset of repeated survey measures (as described in the case for support) will provide a valuable resource for researchers across a wide range of disciplines; including history, sociology, economics, political science, geography and criminology. It may also be useful to survey researchers based in think tanks and political parties, and non-specialists with an interest in public opinion.

* Researchers using advanced quantitative methodologies: the repeated cross-sectional format of the new data source will enable methodological innovation by other researchers analysing public opinion over time. For example, it will enable researchers to conduct time series analysis of cross-sectional data, regression analyses of individual-level survey data, multi-level modelling of individual attitudes nested within regions or years, or age-period-cohort analyses of attitudes on taxation and public expenditure.

* Wider industry and public/media: the data infrastructure and associated research is also expected to be of interest to those in the survey industry in the UK and US, and elsewhere. Findings from the project will also be of interest to media and wider publics, in enhancing understanding of political change in Britain over half a century, and specifically dynamics of public opinion during this period.

In order to ensure that potential beneficiaries have the opportunity to benefit from this research project, we have developed an impact plan that includes the following:

* Engagement of research users in the project via its advisory board and the selection of 100 individual surveys for digitisation.

* Presentation of information regarding new data, tools and analysis at a number of national and international conferences, and via workshops and events across the UK.

* Promotion of the availability of this new data resource and tools via professional bodies and research/user communities (through blogs/articles and other social media).

* Promotion of the data resource and findings via national media and industry publications.

* Delivery of two training workshops for prospective users.
 
Description From the 1930s to early 2000s, the UK affiliate of the Gallup Organisation conducted around three thousand surveys of British public opinion. While the records of the headline results of some of these polls can be found in Gallup's monthly reports and news reports from the time, most of the individual level survey data was previously believed to have been lost. Fortunately, the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research has preserved the raw data and the project converted almost 800 survey datasets from the original column-binary format to contemporary formats. This data collection has been deposited with the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research and been made available to UK academic users. Key achievements and findings of the project include:

* Conversion of around 800 surveys from column binary files into contemporary formats available for download, including full labelling of variables and documentation of datasets.

* Abstracting of all Gallup UK surveys in the Roper collection so that these are searchable by other researchers.

* Merging of most surveys into a single "mega poll" consisting of 771 surveys and 798,341 respondents for use in analysis of long-term trends in British public opinion.

* Uncovering of previously unreported dynamics in public opinion, e.g. Kenny's (2022) recent analysis of attitudes towards joining the European Economic Community from 1957-1972 which uses these data to illustrate the changing partisan nature of support for EEC membership.

* Further substantiating through large scale survey data of declining gender and social class gaps in vote choice and near parallelism across age groups during the nearly 40-year period of analysis.
Exploitation Route The project data is expected to be widely used by researchers interested in historical British public opinion and long-term trends in public attitudes up to the present data, since the data can be merged with contemporary sources to produce a cross-sectional time series of nearly 70 years.
Sectors Government, Democracy and Justice

URL https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/esrc-project
 
Title Digitised individual-level surveys for Social Surveys Ltd (Gallup Poll), 1955-1991 
Description From the 1930s to the early 2000s, the survey organisation Gallup conducted around three thousand surveys of the social, political and economic attitudes of the British public. At the time, these opinion polls provided valuable insights on how the public thought about key issues, personalities and events of the day - the government, the party leaders, international crises, support for specific policies, and so on - with national level results reported in monthly Gallup reports and in the news media. To date, only a small fraction of the original surveys have seen the light of day. A recent discovery by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Cornell revealed a veritable treasure trove of important historical Gallup survey data - around 2,500 surveys covering the period between 1945 and 1991 - stored in 'column binary format' based on antiquated IBM punch cards, rendering them inaccessible to most researchers today. Processing and digitising this data presents a major technical challenge, but offers the prospect of enhancing understanding of social and political change in Britain between the 1940s and 1990s. This project developed a unique dataset of opinion polling by Gallup that enables researchers to analyse dynamics of public opinion in Britain between the 1940s and 1990s. The research team digitised codebooks of Gallup surveys over the period between 1945 and 1991 and converted around 800 individual level surveys. They also created a merged dataset of individual surveys that combines repeated cross-sectional measures of public attitudes and demographics - enabling researchers to track changes in public opinion by subgroup over time. This new data resource allows us to explore long-term trends in social and political attitudes in Britain, their reaction to key events and how they vary across different cross-sections of society. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2022 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The collection of historical opinion polls has been made available for other researchers to use via the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. Around 50 surveys were selected for conversion at the suggestion of researchers across a number of fields, to explore questions relating to the environment and nuclear power, religiosity, tradition and paranormal beliefs, informal political participation, the monarchy, gender, and the state and the Crown. Historical surveys were also used to advance public insight into topical issues (notably in relation to pandemics and migration to the UK from Hong Kong). 
URL https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/ipoll/search?collection=LSM&contains=SPSS&experimental=NON&org=8aacb...
 
Title Digitised survey questionnaires for Social Surveys Ltd (Gallup Poll), 1956-1991 
Description Through the ESRC project, the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research has made available a dataset of 2,350 survey questionnaires conducted by Social Surveys Ltd (Gallup Poll) in the UK between 1956 and 1991. These are publicly available for searching by research users. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Creation of the database of survey questionnaires has enabled the identification of surveys relating to questions of social, economic and political importance that have been prioritised for conversion from the antiquated 'column binary format' into newer forms. 
URL https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/ipoll/search?country=9944b93a-594c-40f1-a58a-0d06c814e011&end=1991-1...
 
Description Partnership with the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research 
Organisation Cornell University
Department Roper Center for Public Opinion Research
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The PI and research team have worked closely with the Roper Center for Public Opinion research in planning and implementing the conversion of historical surveys by Social Surveys Ltd (Gallup Poll), the UK franchise of the Gallup Organisation. The PI/team have reviewed the datasets available to be converted (identifying those of most relevance to the research community and other users), investigated the coding of demographic variables (such as relating to region and constituency identifiers) in the Gallup index. The team have provider Roper with insights on the survey data they hold.
Collaborator Contribution The Roper Center for Public Opinion research have arranged digitisation of the survey questionnaires, uploading of those questionnaires to their database, and have provided training to the research team in the handling of column binary format data, as well as undertaking quality assurance of converted datasets.
Impact The partnership has led to the creation of digitised versions of questionnaires of historical surveys conducted by Social Surveys Ltd (Gallup Poll), made publicly available via the Roper database.
Start Year 2019
 
Description A conference roundtable introducing the ESRC/Roper collection of Gallup polls - how social scientists can use the data 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact This roundtable at the 2022 annual conference of the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP) introduced the ESRC/Roper collection of Gallup polls to ~50 prospective users from political science. The project team explained how the data was collected and compiled, how the resource can be searched and used, key measures/variables included, and how the data can be used.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description A workshop introducing the ESRC/Roper collection of Gallup polls - how social scientists can use the data 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This online workshop introduced the ESRC/Roper collection of Gallup polls to ~30 prospective users from academia and outside (and the session was subsequently made available to watch via the Roper website0. The project team explained how the data was collected and compiled, how the resource can be searched and used, key measures/variables included, and how the data can be used.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/esrc-project
 
Description Blog (Or, Kenny, Roescu and Jennings) for the Mile End Institute website ('How do Brits react to an epidemic: what can polling from the past tell us?') 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact This blog by the project team reported analysis of Gallup polls during 1969 and 1970 (and digitised by the project) relating to public health.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.qmul.ac.uk/mei/news-and-opinion/items/how-do-brits-react-to-an-epidemic-what-can-polling...
 
Description Blog (Or, Kenny, Roescu and Jennings) for the YouGov website ('Support for giving rights to British passport-holders in Hong Kong is on the rise in the shadow of China's new national security law') 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact This blog by the project team shared insights from a recent survey conducted by YouGov and compared against a historical Gallup poll digitised by the project.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/07/01/support-helping-british-passport-ho...
 
Description Conference presentation (Kenny), 'The origins and evolution of environmental public opinion in Britain'. Environmental Social Sciences: Current Issues and Future Perspectives, Bern (August 2020) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Conference presentation sharing analysis of historical Gallup polls on the environment digitised by the project.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Presentation by John Kenny 'Analysing the changing relationship between political attitudes and gender in Britain: 1955-2022' to the European Political Science Association (EPSA) conference, June 2022. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation by John Kenny 'Analysing the changing relationship between political attitudes and gender in Britain: 1955-2022' to the European Political Science Association (EPSA) conference, June 2022.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Presentation by John Kenny 'The formation of British attitudes towards Europe: 1957-1972' to the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP) conference, September 2021. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation by John Kenny of working paper 'The formation of British attitudes towards Europe: 1957-1972' to the annual meeting of the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties specialist group of the UK Political Studies Association, September 2021.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Presentation by John Kenny 'The formation of British attitudes towards Europe: 1957-1972' to the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Studies Association, April 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation by John Kenny of a conference paper 'The formation of British attitudes towards Europe: 1957-1972' to the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Studies Association, April 2021.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Presentation by Stuart Smedley 'Revealing long-term trajectories of public opinion and polling in Britain: a new resource of historical data from the UK Gallup Poll, 1955-1991' to the Institute of Historical Research Contemporary British Seminar, March 2022 the World Association of Public Opinion Research, November 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation by Stuart Smedley of the working paper 'Revealing long-term trajectories of public opinion and polling in Britain: a new resource of historical data from the UK Gallup Poll, 1955-1991' to the Institute of Historical Research Contemporary British Seminar, March 2022 the World Association of Public Opinion Research, November 2021
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Presentation by Will Jennings 'Revealing long-term trajectories of public opinion and polling in Britain: a new resource of historical data from the UK Gallup Poll, 1955-1991' to the EPOP annual conference, September 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation by Will Jennings of working paper 'Revealing long-term trajectories of public opinion and polling in Britain: a new resource of historical data from the UK Gallup Poll, 1955-1991' to the annual conference of the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties specialist group of the UK Political Studies Association, September 2021
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Presentation by Will Jennings 'Revealing long-term trajectories of public opinion and polling in Britain: a new resource of historical data from the UK Gallup Poll, 1955-1991' to the annual conference of the World Association of Public Opinion Research, November 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation by Will Jennings of working paper 'Revealing long-term trajectories of public opinion and polling in Britain: a new resource of historical data from the UK Gallup Poll, 1955-1991' to the annual conference of the World Association of Public Opinion Research, November 2021
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Project website based at the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research has created a page on its website detailing the data resource that will be made available through the ESRC project. This includes a link to surveys in the Roper database and a form that enables visitors to the page to suggest a survey for conversion from column binary format.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/esrc-project