Deciphering and disrupting the social, spatial and temporal systems behind transnational human trafficking: a data science approach

Human trafficking is widely described as one of the world's biggest, fastest growing and most lucrative organised crimes. For all the bold rhetoric, there is woefully little scientific evidence on human trafficking's scale, nature, distribution, organisation and evolution. The number of victims officially identified in the UK grows year-on-year but these cases are just the tip of the iceberg as many victims go unreported or undetected. A recent estimate suggested the UK had around 7,000 to 10,000 trafficking victims in one year. Human trafficking is not only a complex social issue but also a very emotive one: it often involves the sale of vulnerable people and extreme exploitation of their bodies and labour. It causes serious harms, undermining the safety, security and welfare of individual victims, communities and nations. Many millions of pounds are spent each year trying to combat trafficking. Without a strong evidence base, there is a very real risk that myths, stereotypes, assumptions and hidden agendas step in to fill the gaps. Ill-informed measures can be very costly, ineffective and even actively detrimental. It is therefore vital to invest in high-quality research to improve understanding and inform policy and practice.

Our ultimate vision is to improve how data are used to analyse and intervene in transnational human trafficking. Our research will support a far more targeted and nuanced approach to counter-trafficking. It focuses on three key dimensions to the complex systems involved in trafficking: social structures, geographical space and time. We will systematically examine the structure of the social networks in which traffickers and victims are embedded, identifying key roles and vulnerabilities. We will determine where major steps in the trafficking process occur, mapping hotspots (places where crime concentrates), profiling key locations and examining supply and demand, risk and resilience and geographical flows. We will analyse patterns and trends in trafficking and their evolution over time. Throughout the research, we will explore the implications of our results for better detecting, deterring and disrupting trafficking, increasing resilience and reducing harms.

Our project will be the largest and most comprehensive assessment of transnational human trafficking affecting the UK. It will include adult and child victims trafficked for diverse purposes, including exploitation in the sex trade, the home and numerous other licit and illicit labour markets. Data access is a notorious barrier to trafficking research but we have remarkable access to important national datasets: the UK's central system for victim identification; the Modern Slavery Helpline; and a unique research dataset on trafficking networks. We will also draw widely on publicly available datasets (e.g. Census data) to inform our analyses. We will use methods that vastly advance understanding of human trafficking but have rarely been possible in this field due to shortages of data and skills. Our work is truly interdisciplinary, drawing on geography, crime science, criminology, data science, epidemiology, sociology, computer science and mathematics.

Our research will generate vital insights into transnational human trafficking on an unprecedented scale. We have an outstanding team that combines leading academics, non-governmental organisations, law enforcement and government. Our collaborative approach positions us well to translate excellent scientific research into genuine change. As well traditional academic outputs, we will run interactive workshops in the UK and abroad, develop a software solution, training and toolkits, produce policy briefings and deliver an innovative and tightly targeted campaign to counter trafficking. We will also run events and produce outputs designed to stimulate more high-quality research and research-informed interventions not just around human trafficking but other transnational organised crimes.

Our research will bring significant direct and indirect benefits to various non-academic stakeholders, including the following groups:

1. Government: As emphasised by the Home Office (see 'Letter of support'), our research will generate vital evidence on human trafficking, its victims and offenders. It will be well-placed to inform policy, decision-making and other government activity, potentially leading to cost savings and more effective governance. Besides the Home Office, our research will likely interest the Department of Health and Social Care, Ministry of Justice, Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs, Foreign and Commonwealth Office and Department for International Development, among others.
2. Law enforcement: As highlighted by the National Crime Agency (see 'Letter of support'), our research will increase law enforcement's skills, capacity and understanding of transnational human trafficking, providing much-needed insights into the structure and vulnerabilities of trafficking networks and the distribution of trafficking activity. The research will offer a solid empirical basis for more data-driven strategy, tactics and deployment of resources. The work will assist law enforcement agencies at local, national and transnational levels (e.g. EUROPOL and INTERPOL).
3. Third sector organisations: In providing robust insights into the complex systems behind transnational human trafficking, our research will assist diverse third sector organisations engaged in advocacy, awareness-raising and the provision of support services in the UK and abroad. As emphasised by Unseen and Stop the Traffik (see 'Letters of support'), our research will help advance such organisations' long-term goals of combatting human trafficking and exploitation.
4. Independent advisors and commissioners: In the UK and internationally various independent offices have legally enshrined remits requiring them to report on human trafficking and exploitation. Examples include the Independent Antislavery Commissioner and the Director of Labour Market Enforcement in the UK and the National Rapporteur on Trafficking in Human Beings and Sexual Violence Against Children in the Netherlands. Our innovative, large-scale research will help inform their analyses, reports and strategies for action and research.
5. Transnational organisations: Based on our past experiences around labour trafficking, this new project will likely attract the attention of major transnational organisations like the United Nations (in particular the Office on Drugs and Crime), International Labour Organization and International Organization for Migration. It will prove valuable as a model of how collaboration and innovation can help build a stronger knowledge base on trafficking and will likely inform future international research projects, policy and interventions.
6. Diverse practitioners, policy-makers and analysts in economically under-developed countries: Our overseas workshops will engage with individuals and organisations in key source countries (many in the Global South). By collaborating on ideas for interventions to tackle trafficking in their communities, we will seek to build interest and links, empower these local actors and lay the foundations for further collaborations.
7. Affected communities and businesses in the UK and society as a whole: In contributing to a stronger knowledge base on transnational trafficking as it affects the UK and informing more data-driven interventions, our research stands to benefit UK communities, businesses and society as a whole.
8. Victims, their families and communities: Other key longer-term beneficiaries of our research are targets and victims, their families and communities. Anything our work can do to improve targeted prevention and early intervention to recognise and respond to victims is likely to play a small but important part in mitigating the potentially devastating social, economic and health impacts of trafficking.