Investigating an Economic Longevity Dividend

Between now and 2050 nearly every country around the world is expected to see an increase in its average age and in the proportion of the population aged over 65. This statistic forms the basis of an ageing society narrative that says because there will be more old people, economic growth will slow and fiscal expenditures increase due to their higher pension and health costs. The importance of this topic is recognized by the UK Government who have made an ageing society one of their 4 Grand Challenges in their Industrial Strategy (published in 2017).

The ageing society narrative tends to dominate discussion and focus on the negative consequences of there being more old people. However, what receives relatively little attention is the fact that it isn't just there are more old people but how we are ageing is changing. We are, on average, living longer and are healthier for longer. The average UK citizen, for instance, has never been older but also has never had so long left to live. This is not unambiguously an ageing society. This is good news at the individual level but should also be good news for the economy.

The purpose of this research is to identify more clearly how this better ageing effect works (a longevity effect), to quantify how important it is, and to focus on policy measures that can help support it so that both as individuals and as a society we gain. In other words, the research seeks to understand better the gains in life expectancy that have been achieved, the value of healthy longevity, and how to maximize the economic gains so as to achieve the positive economic outcomes from longer healthier lives rather than negative economic consequences of an ageing society.

PROMOTION OF HEALTHY AGEING AS A CONCEPT IN CIVIL SOCIETY

An important impact channel for this proposed research will be to work with a number of civil society organisations to help them in their various public campaigns to raise awareness of these facts and help support as many people as possible to benefit from the longevity, rather than the ageing, effect.

The PI has strong connections with organisations such as the Centre for Ageing Better [https://www.ageing-better.org.uk/], The International Longevity Centre [https://ilcuk.org.uk/], and The Health Foundation [https://www.health.org.uk/], as well as a charity he co-founded called The Longevity Forum [https://www.thelongevityforum.com/]. Through publications and conferences these connections with organisations would provide natural platforms for the message to be heard by the wider public, individuals working in this area, and governments.

The PI is a member of the advisory board of the Academy for Health and Lifespan Research [https://www.ahlresearch.org] which is made up of leading scientific researchers in this area whose aim is to encourage research and government support for research around anti-ageing treatments. Therefore, this economic work originating in Economics will also feed directly into treatment and approaches in the the global medical/scientific community.

Andrew Scott, with Laura Carstensen (Professor, Stanford University, and Director of the Stanford Center on Longevity, http://longevity.stanford.edu/people-2/laura-carstensen/), are establishing a Global New Map of Life Project. This will be launched at an event in September 2019 to be hosted by the Rockefeller Foundation at its Bellagio Center. As part of this global network, Scott will be looking to establish a UK hub through which the research from this project will be disseminated in hosted events bringing together policymakers, corporates, and charitable institutions in the UK and linking this hub with a global research network.

INFLUENCE ON FUTURE UK PUBLIC HEALTH AND ECONOMIC POLICIES

In response to the success of his co-authored book "The 100 Year Life", the PI has started conversations with a variety of government departments on promoting a longevity agenda. This academic research would be a key means of developing this policy agenda further.

The PI has strong links with HM Treasury and Bank of England from his previous ESRC-funded research on monetary and fiscal policy (most recently: Government Debt Management, ES/H02185X/1). He also serves on the advisory board of the Office for Budget Responsibility for which accurately estimating the impact of demographic change on long run economic growth is a key issue.

Scott has also been involved in discussions with the No.10 policy unit, and the Industrial Challenge Ageing Society Group, as well as the CBI. All of these groups would be invited to attend the follow-up conference mentioned above on setting a UK agenda.