COVID-19: Monitoring the effects of the pandemic on illicit online trade
Lead Research Organisation:
City, University of London
Department Name: Sch of Engineering and Mathematical Sci
Abstract
The pandemic has reshaped the demand for goods and services worldwide. Economic stress, the public health emergency and disinformation-driven panic have pushed customers, and vendors, towards the shadow economy. In particular, Dark web marketplaces (DWMs), commercial websites easily accessible via free software like Tor, have acquired significant popularity. They accept Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to broker transactions often involving drugs, weapons, and other illicit goods. UK presence on DWMs is strong: As of April 6, 86% of COVID-19 related listings on DWMs would ship to UK and 45% were shipped from UK. This project will build an infrastructure to monitor dark web trading in COVID-19-related goods and services. First, we will monitor listings on DWMs to detect changes in types and prices of COVID-19-related goods and services (e.g., face masks, prescription drugs, scams). Second, we will analyse patterns of Bitcoin (or other cryptocurrency) transactions involving DWMs and their users to quantify policy-relevant changes in trading activity patterns and customer behaviour. The rapid evolution of the pandemic requires gathering and analysing critical data quickly, and a strong research effort to improve the current understanding of DWMs. Our interdisciplinary research team is perfectly equipped for this challenge. Live results shared in reports and a dedicate website will (i) uncover market demand and supply of critical goods and services, (ii) support policymakers' plans for their provision and (iii) assist and complement the UK's effort to combat disinformation about coronavirus, scams, and to counter panic-buying of counterfeit goods that could threat public health.
Publications
Bracci A
(2021)
Dark Web Marketplaces and COVID-19: before the vaccine.
in EPJ data science
Bracci A
(2021)
Dark Web Marketplaces and COVID-19: The vaccines
in SSRN Electronic Journal
Bracci A
(2022)
Vaccines and more: The response of Dark Web marketplaces to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
in PloS one
ElBahrawy A
(2020)
Collective dynamics of dark web marketplaces.
in Scientific reports
Nadini M
(2022)
Emergence and structure of decentralised trade networks around dark web marketplaces.
in Scientific Reports
| Description | The COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped the demand for services and goods worldwide. The public health emergency, economic distress, and misinformation-driven panic have pushed customers and vendors towards the shadow economy. Dark web marketplaces are commercial websites accessible via free software and have gained significant popularity. They accept Bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies to broker transactions involving several kinds of illicit goods, like drugs and weapons. In this project, we monitored more than a hundred dark web marketplaces since January 2020 and found clear evidence that previous shortages of COVID-19 related goods (e.g., masks, COVID-19 tests and vaccines) favoured their emergence on dark web marketplaces. We detected hundreds of such listings, sold by dozens of vendors in tens different dark web marketplaces. We also revealed that variations in public attention, as measured by Twitter posts and Wikipedia page visits, positively correlated with the availability of COVID-19 related listings on dark web marketplaces. We registered 250 listings offering approved vaccines, like Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccines, as well as vendors offering fabricated proofs of vaccination and COVID-19 passports. Thanks to our ongoing monitoring effort, we observed the extent to which uncertified COVID-19 vaccines were available on dark web marketplaces and tracked their evolution over time. We also analysed Bitcoin transactions data related to dark web marketplaces to assess any effect that the COVID-19 pandemic had on illicit transactions. We unveiled that the COVID-19 pandemic had only a temporary negative effect on illicit transactions, which steadily growth after March 2020. |
| Exploitation Route | Our effort is of interest to public agencies focused on the protection of public health and may support law enforcement agencies to contain illicit trade on the dark web. We collaborated with ITV to investigate the authenticity of the products offered on the dark web. We constantly updated our freely-accessible website with our new findings, reaching an audience of thousands of users. Furthermore, the relationship between misinformation and the activity of dark web marketplaces that we presented in our 2021 EPJ Data Science paper has greatly helped the involvement of the PI in the IRIS collaboration funded by the UK Government to address misinformation (2021-2023 grant). Finally, the techniques developed in the research that led to our 2022 Scientific Report paper "Emergence and structure of decentralised trade networks around dark web marketplaces" substantially contributed to th realisation of a REF2021 impact case for the Mathematics department at City University of London (see Narrative Impact). |
| Sectors | Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy |
| URL | https://darknet-blog.netlify.app/ |
| Description | We have provided constant updates on the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on DWMs to the general public through a freely accessible website (https://darkmarkets.live/). The website allows people of different backgrounds to understand the thread that dark web marketplaces posits to the public global health. It has currently reached more than a thousand users in 72 countries worldwide, including United States, United Kingdom, China, Canada, Brazil, India, and Europe. Both national and international media have learned about the project through the website and contacted us afterwards to cover our findings. Within academia, our first paper "Dark Web Marketplaces and COVID-19: before the vaccine" (EPJ DS, 2021) has become a reference for research on Dark Web Marketplaces both in relation to the pandemic and more broadly. At the industry level, the new analysis techniques developed for the paper "Emergence and structure of decentralised trade networks around dark web marketplaces" were crucial for the REF2021 impact case realised by Andrea Baronchelli for the Mathematics department at City University of London and concerning the partnership with Chainalysis which was pivotal to, and further strengthened by, the current projects. Specifically, these techniques were first developed to assess the impact of the pandemic on illicit online trade in dark web marketplaces (i.e., the focus of the current project) and later generalised to become part of the Chainalysis' product offer. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2020 |
| Sector | Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy |
| Impact Types | Cultural,Societal,Economic |
| Description | Training of a PhD student |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | The grant provided training to a PhD student, who was actively involved in all research activities. The student was trained in analysing large and time-resolved datasets, in writing scientific journals, and in disseminating the results to the generic public |
| Description | Global Health Security Academic Research Coalition |
| Amount | £3,500,000 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | SCH-00001-3391 |
| Organisation | Government of the UK |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 03/2021 |
| End | 11/2023 |
| Description | Patterns of centralization in Bitcoin transaction network |
| Amount | $340,000 (USD) |
| Organisation | PayPal |
| Sector | Private |
| Country | United States |
| Start | 05/2022 |
| End | 05/2024 |
| Description | Analysis of listings data on dark web marketplaces (NYU) |
| Organisation | New York University |
| Country | Italy |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | We took the lead in the analysis of listings data on dark web marketplaces and in the preparation of two research articles. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Partners aided us in the analysis of listings data on dark web marketplaces and in the preparation of two research articles. |
| Impact | Two articles were published as a result of this partnership. One is published in the international journal of EPJ Data Science and the other currently available as preprint on the arXiv and medrxiv databases. We are currently updating the latter with new data and will submit it for publication soon. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Analysis of listings on dark web marketplaces (Flashpoint) |
| Organisation | Flashpoint |
| Country | United States |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | We took the lead in the analysis of listings data on dark web marketplaces and in the preparation of two research articles. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Partners granted us access to their proprietary data about listings on dark web marketplaces. In order to provide us an up-to-date dataset, they update the dataset on a monthly basis. |
| Impact | Two articles were published as a result of this partnership. One is published in the international journal of EPJ Data Science and the other currently available as preprint on the arXiv and medrxiv databases. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Article in "The Conversation UK" |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Press release on "The Conversation" that disseminates the findings published in the Scientific Reports article "Collective dynamics of dark web marketplaces" to a wider audience. The press release was echoed by other foreign online news, like "Channel News Asia CNA" |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://theconversation.com/banning-disruptive-online-groups-is-a-game-of-whac-a-mole-that-web-giant... |
| Description | Article in the French newspaper "Journal du Geek" |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Article on the online version of the French newspaper "Journal du Geek". The journal has a wide audience in France, and this article significantly contributed in the dissemination of our research findings to the general public |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.journaldugeek.com/2021/02/28/masques-medicaments-ventilateurs-gare-aux-courses-sur-le-da... |
| Description | Dissemination of our findings through BBC Newsday (Radio) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Dr. Baronchelli joined the 7 AM edition of BBC Newsday to present our work "Dark web marketplaces: before the vaccine", currently published in EPJ Data Science. The interview sparked several questions with the BBC presenter interested in learning about our follow-up work "Dark web marketplaces: the vaccines", currently available as preprint on the arXiv and medrxiv databases. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172x2wqpp11n89 |
| Description | Dissemination of our findings through several online newspapers |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | The Daily Mail (online version) made a press release about our article "Dark web marketplaces and COVID-19: before the vaccine", currently published in EPJ Data Science. The article had a major impact online and was followed by other similar press releases; among which we mention "Ansa.it" (an important Italian online newspaper) and "El Universal" (an influential Mexican online newspaper) |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9198535/Covid-19-medicines-PPE-tests-vaccines-sold-d... |
| Description | Interview with "ITV News" |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Interview with "ITV News" about our preprint "Dark web marketplaces and COVID-19: The vaccines". The interview went on air in "ITV News" and a detailed article was published online. The interviewer requested additional information about our ongoing research on vaccine listings, which may result in a future collaboration |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.itv.com/news/2021-02-12/fraudsters-stealing-identity-of-doctors-and-scientists-to-scam-p... |
| Description | Invitation for giving a seminar at Cambridge University |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | The seminar took place at the Cambridge Cybercrime Centre, part of the University of Cambridge. The content of the seminar summarizes our recent efforts, which are detailed in the articles "Dark Web Marketplaces and COVID-19: before the vaccine" and "Dark Web Marketplaces and COVID-19: The vaccines". The audience was interested in the topic discussed and suggested to us that their datasets may enrich our research effort. These datasets are available at https://www.cambridgecybercrime.uk/datasets.html, and may spark new researches related to online illicit trade |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | Invited seminar at the VIII Mediterranean School of Complex Networks. 30/06/2022. |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Talk. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Online Panel hosted by Bayes Business School |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Governments and technology must evolve with dark web markets to ensure that the ungoverned spaces are carefully monitored as they continue to grow post-pandemic. That is the view of a group of economic and scientific experts, who spoke at an online panel event, hosted by Bayes Business School's Centre for Banking Research. The lockdown in 2020 impacted lives, societies and economies across the world, but it also saw an influx of online trading for Covid-related goods - such as vaccines and proof of vaccination - alongside goods more traditionally traded on the dark web, including drugs. Dr Angela Gallo, a Senior Lecturer in Finance at Bayes, was joined by Dr Andrea Baronchelli, Associate Professor in Mathematics, at City, University of London on November 3, to discuss what is next for the shadow online economy which closed with a record year of revenues in 2020. Also on the panel were Professor Anthony Finkelstein, Professor and President of City, University of London, Dr Alex TeyTelboym, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Oxford and Philip Gradwell, Chief Economist at Chainalysis, a blockchain data platform. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.bayes.city.ac.uk/news-and-events/news/2021/december/evolving-dark-web-markets-how-to-fac... |
| Description | Press release on newspapers based on Greek and Finland |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Two important online newspapers, IS Digitoday (based in Finland) and Skai (based in Greek), have reported our findings in their online articles Article in IS Digitoday: https://www.is.fi/digitoday/art-2000007875751.html Article in Skai: https://www.skai.gr/news/technology/dark-web-ta-dolomata-oi-ellines-xristes-o-synolikos-tziros-kai-to-paradeigma-pagovounou |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.is.fi/digitoday/art-2000007875751.html |
| Description | Seminar at the Federal Reserve Board |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | After the seminar at the Janeway Institute, I was invited (by Anton Badev) to give a talk on the results of our project at the Federal Reserve Board internal seminar series. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Seminar at the Janeway Institute, University of Cambridge, |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Talk entitled "Stylized facts about transaction networks in dark web marketplaces" at the Networks Webinar Series of Janeway Institute, University of Cambridge, which covered results from several papers in the project. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.janeway.econ.cam.ac.uk/event/networks-webinar-series-alex-teytelboym |
| Description | Social media dissemination |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Continuous dissemination of our findings through Twitter, LinkedIn, and Facebook. The dissemination was effective in fostering the attention of media and other researchers toward our research |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020,2021 |
| Description | Talk at Special Session (on Social Media and NLP) of the Royal Economic Society |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | I gave a short talk at a Special Session (on Social Media and NLP) of the Royal Economic Society 2021 Annual Meetings. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.res.org.uk/event-listing/annual-conference/res2021-special-sessions.html |