Beyond Unionism and Nationalism in Northern Ireland: Electors, Voters and Party Members
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Liverpool
Department Name: Politics
Abstract
Politics in Northern Ireland has always been framed upon unionist versus nationalist divisions. Power-sharing between unionists and nationalists is mandatory in the devolved Executive and Assembly. Yet, according to the 2019 ESRC Northern Ireland election study, 40% of Northern Ireland's electors say they are neither unionist nor nationalist, compared to only 27% identifying as unionist and 25% as nationalist.
Despite this, remarkably little is known about those 'neithers', in terms of who they are, why they reject unionism and nationalism, their reasons for voting or abstaining, and the depth of their backing for non-unionist and non-nationalist parties. This project aims to rectify these knowledge gaps by surveying those electors who identify as neither unionist nor nationalist and undertaking a membership study of the main representatives of the non-aligned grouping, the Alliance Party, the only non-aligned party represented in Northern Ireland's government.
The project involves an extensive demographic and attitudinal survey of a) electors declaring they are neither unionist or nationalist, to understand their background and their rationale and b) to examine the views of those committed to the rejection of unionism and nationalism within the largest party, Alliance, not aligned to either unionism or nationalism, via a survey of the entire party membership to which the party has agreed.
By analysing the demography and views of non-voters, voters and party members who eschew unionism and nationalism, we will achieve a far better understanding of Northern Ireland's understudied third tradition, numerically its largest but the least researched. We will analyse several different types of elector rejecting unionism and nationalism:
a) the non-voter who refuses to participate in the electoral system because of that rejection.
b) the voter who supports Alliance, or other smaller non-unionist/non-nationalist parties, e.g. the Greens, because they are neither unionist or nationalist and/or because they back the policies of that particular party;
c) the non-unionist and non-nationalist voter who nonetheless votes for a unionist or nationalist party for various reasons, such as tactical or lower preference voting.
d) the committed rejectionists of the existing unionist v nationalist binary within Alliance's membership, assessing how the party attempts to either i) accommodate compromises between unionists and nationalists or ii) overcome Northern Ireland's divisions iii) understand what ethnic-blind policies, to diminish sectarian divisions, are backed by party members.
This is an important project because:
a) we need to understand how non-ethnic electors and party members view the ethnic party system in which they are asked to participate.
b) Northern Ireland's centre ground is large and unlikely to disappear. Alliance saw its vote share increase by 11% and 9% respectively in the 2019 European and Westminster elections. The party's vote shares in those contests, of 19% (European)and 17% (Westminster) represented record highs for the party. Alliance has risen to become Northern Ireland's third-best supported party, behind only the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin.
c) non-unionist and non-nationalist electors are the 'swing' voters who need to be won by unionists or nationalists in any future border poll on Northern Ireland's constitutional future, permitted under the Good Friday Agreement.
d) little is known about the centre ground and its main party. There has been no book-length academic study of electors or parties outside Northern Ireland's two main traditions, only a solitary activist's volume on Alliance and only three journal articles dedicated to the organisation. This dearth of material highlights a wider research problem: that the focus upon ethnically divided societies is mainly their ethnic parties, not organisations beyond the sectarian divide.
Despite this, remarkably little is known about those 'neithers', in terms of who they are, why they reject unionism and nationalism, their reasons for voting or abstaining, and the depth of their backing for non-unionist and non-nationalist parties. This project aims to rectify these knowledge gaps by surveying those electors who identify as neither unionist nor nationalist and undertaking a membership study of the main representatives of the non-aligned grouping, the Alliance Party, the only non-aligned party represented in Northern Ireland's government.
The project involves an extensive demographic and attitudinal survey of a) electors declaring they are neither unionist or nationalist, to understand their background and their rationale and b) to examine the views of those committed to the rejection of unionism and nationalism within the largest party, Alliance, not aligned to either unionism or nationalism, via a survey of the entire party membership to which the party has agreed.
By analysing the demography and views of non-voters, voters and party members who eschew unionism and nationalism, we will achieve a far better understanding of Northern Ireland's understudied third tradition, numerically its largest but the least researched. We will analyse several different types of elector rejecting unionism and nationalism:
a) the non-voter who refuses to participate in the electoral system because of that rejection.
b) the voter who supports Alliance, or other smaller non-unionist/non-nationalist parties, e.g. the Greens, because they are neither unionist or nationalist and/or because they back the policies of that particular party;
c) the non-unionist and non-nationalist voter who nonetheless votes for a unionist or nationalist party for various reasons, such as tactical or lower preference voting.
d) the committed rejectionists of the existing unionist v nationalist binary within Alliance's membership, assessing how the party attempts to either i) accommodate compromises between unionists and nationalists or ii) overcome Northern Ireland's divisions iii) understand what ethnic-blind policies, to diminish sectarian divisions, are backed by party members.
This is an important project because:
a) we need to understand how non-ethnic electors and party members view the ethnic party system in which they are asked to participate.
b) Northern Ireland's centre ground is large and unlikely to disappear. Alliance saw its vote share increase by 11% and 9% respectively in the 2019 European and Westminster elections. The party's vote shares in those contests, of 19% (European)and 17% (Westminster) represented record highs for the party. Alliance has risen to become Northern Ireland's third-best supported party, behind only the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin.
c) non-unionist and non-nationalist electors are the 'swing' voters who need to be won by unionists or nationalists in any future border poll on Northern Ireland's constitutional future, permitted under the Good Friday Agreement.
d) little is known about the centre ground and its main party. There has been no book-length academic study of electors or parties outside Northern Ireland's two main traditions, only a solitary activist's volume on Alliance and only three journal articles dedicated to the organisation. This dearth of material highlights a wider research problem: that the focus upon ethnically divided societies is mainly their ethnic parties, not organisations beyond the sectarian divide.
Publications
Tonge J
(2022)
How Close is a Border Poll or a United Ireland?
in Political Insight
Tonge J
(2022)
The 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: Polling, Power-Sharing, Protocol
in Political Insight
Tonge J
(2022)
Voting into a Void? The 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly Election
in The Political Quarterly
| Description | A representative sample of 5,128 people were interviewed across 96 electoral wards in Northern Ireland were interviewed in 2022, the screening interview asking 3 core questions: A1 interest in politics, A2 Are you unionist, nationalist, neither? A3 Which party would you give your first preference vote to? (results are as you might broadly expect: SF 27%, DUP 24%, All 15%, UUP 13%, SDLP 11%) 2,032 (circa 40%) identified as 'neither', our target audience for the project. This group were then subject to a much more detailed interview about their political attitudes The project wanted to find out what the 'neithers' think on a wide range of issues. Below is a sample of what was found, relating to the constitutional question: Non-Unionist and Non-Nationalist Electors: Summary of Findings There is a bare overall majority in favour of the retention of the Union. However, whilst that might be viewed as an unconvincing endorsement, the percentage in favour of the status quo far exceeds that in favour of a united Ireland. It is noteworthy that the percentage saying that they 'don't know' their long-term constitutional preference is high at 23.5%, a figure exceeding all bar one of the online polls conducted during the last two years. Further possible evidence of a lack of fervent demand for change among the 'neithers' may lie in their attitude towards a border poll: Table 2 Views of non-unionist and non-nationalist electors on whether there should be a border poll within the next decade More 'neithers' would prefer not to see a border poll take place than desire one, (42% to 31%) . What is striking again is the high figure for 'don't knows', unsure whether they want a border poll to take place. Whilst further research is needed, a vote on an undefined change (thus far) may be unlikely to excite many of those whose default position is of little interest in politics. The perception that Brexit has re-stirred constitutional politics in Northern Ireland - not that they required a great deal of stirring - has not escaped some of those positioned beyond unionism and nationalism. A far higher number of 'neithers' (more than one in three) believe Brexit has made a united Ireland more likely than those who disagree (less than one in six). Again, however, 'don't know' is a common response - the largest single category - and overall among non-unionists and non-nationalists, those who don't know whether Brexit has increased prospects for Irish unity, or 'neither agree nor disagree' that it has, form a combined overall majority. More non-unionists and non-nationalists voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum than voted against, on a ratio broadly parallel to the overall remain vote in Northern Ireland. However, the largest single category is that of those not voting in the referendum, despite its potentially profound implications. This again indicates that a sizeable section of those eschewing unionism and nationalism may not engage in political activity more broadly. Non-Unionist and Non-Nationalist Party Members: The Alliance Party Non-unionist and non-nationalist electors display various traits. They are less likely to vote than unionists or nationalists and much less likely to take either a pro-Union or pro-united Ireland position. Although self-identified 'neithers' represent the largest single category among Northern Ireland's electorate at approaching 40%, the total vote for all non-unionist and non-nationalist parties in Northern Ireland has never exceeded 17%. Nonetheless, recent years have seen the rapid growth of a 'neither' party, in Alliance, which refuses to be defined by the constitutional question but whose stance, if it were to take one in a border poll, could be influential, even decisive. Alliance's support comes mainly (although certainly not exclusively) from electors declaring they are neither unionist nor nationalist. Some 60% of the party's vote came from this section of the electorate at the 2019 general election. Until just over a decade ago, Alliance tended to be labelled as a 'small "u" unionist" party, supportive of the present constitutional arrangement. Two decades ago, when we surveyed the Alliance membership, supporters of Northern Ireland remaining part of the UK outnumbered backers of a united Ireland by five-to-one. Our data suggests a major shift within Alliance compared to two decades ago, with more members now favouring a united Ireland than supporting the Union. The party is broadly split three ways, between pro-Union, pro-unity and don't know. These divisions may make it impossible for the party to take a stance in a constitutional referendum without risking internal turmoil. Certainly, it is difficult to envisage Alliance campaigning for Northern Ireland to remain in the UK when so few of its rank-and-file now back that stance. As such, Alliance can no longer be added to the list of unionist parties in terms of even latent support for the status quo. A majority of Alliance Party members believe (55%) - and indeed hope (54%) - that a border poll will be held within the next decade, notwithstanding possible risks to their party. This is not the desire of the party leadership. Alliance will divide in a way that unionist and nationalist parties will not, so a 'free vote', with party members campaigning against each other, may be the scenario if a poll is called. There has, therefore, been a discernible shift in the constitutional outlook of Alliance. A party that once declared it believed the most appropriate arrangement was for Northern Ireland to remain in the UK would not offer such an utterance these days. Older Alliance members, politically socialised in an era of Alliance backing for the Union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, are more likely to support Northern Ireland remaining in the UK. The younger influx of members is less wedded to the idea. Women are more likely than men to oppose Northern Ireland remaining in the UK. This is not a case of an internal sectarian divide. Being Catholic does not reach significance. Indeed, although not shown in the table, a large percentage of young Alliance members declare themselves to be non-religious and it is among this group, rather than among Protestants or Catholics, that support for a united Ireland is extensive. The perception that a united Ireland will eventually arrive is rife within the party, nearly three-quarters of its members believing in its eventuality. This is a considerably higher figure than among the wider non-unionist and non-nationalist electorate. Even though opinion poll figures suggest the shift among the public towards Irish unity might be seen as modest, there is a clear sense of momentum towards a united Ireland among 'neithers', whether ordinary electors or party members. Alliance party members represent those who are politically interested and committed within the centrist bloc. They eschew unionist or nationalist identity but not political activity itself. They are trying to create a radical centrist alternative to the traditional blocs. They are not necessarily typical of the non-unionist, non-nationalist elector who appears more apathetic. Within that bloc of 'neithers', there is a large swathe of electors who do not hold strong constitutional views, many of whom do not even vote. It is those electors that represent a challenge - and an opportunity - to which the forces of British unionism and Irish nationalism need to rise to secure their position. |
| Exploitation Route | Via the recommendations to the House of Commons Northern Ireland Select Committee on changes to the institutions of the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement, emphasising that Northern Ireland is NOT a binary society and that political institutions could usefully be reformed (via e.g. weighted majority voting and ending of communal designations) to reflect this. |
| Sectors | Education,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Description | Used extensively in the media - BBC Radio 4 and Radio 5, BBC World Service, BBC Northern Ireland, Guardian, FT, Washington Post, ITN, Belfast Telegraph, Irish News among many others Formed the basis for the submission to the Northern Ireland Affairs Select Committee inquiry on reform of the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement institutions. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2022 |
| Sector | Education,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Description | Alliance Party of Northern Ireland |
| Organisation | Alliance Party of Northern Ireland |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | Agreed a partnership with this political party to produce a membership survey, following the 2019 Northern Ireland General Election study. This will be published as a book with Oxford University Press later this year. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Working with the Alliance Party to survey its entire membership in terms of demographics and political attitudes across a wide range of questions. This benefits the party - more knowledge of its members - and us as academics - more knowledge of the main non-unionist and non-nationalist party in Northern Ireland. |
| Impact | Forthcoming book with Oxford University Press. |
| Start Year | 2020 |
| Description | Presentation of data findings to the Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement, Oireachtas (Irish Parliament) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | I was invited to present to the Joint Committee on the Good Friday Friday Agreement (both houses of the Irish Parliament) electoral evidence on the levels of support for the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly and on whether the Northern Irish electorate continued to support the principles of devolved power-sharing. I also presented suggestions for reform. My oral evidence was accompanied by a written presentation. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/press-centre/press-releases/20210712-oireachtas-committee-examines-stra... |
| Description | Presentation to the Northern Ireland (Ministers, Elections and Petitions of Concern) Bill Committee, House of Commons |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | I presented an analysis of the draft proposals in the Northern Ireland (Ministers, Elections and Petitions of Concern Bill Committee |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://www.theyworkforyou.com/pbc/2021-22/northern_ireland_%28ministers%2C_elections_and_petitions_... |
| Description | Submission of written evidence to the Northern Ireland Affairs Select Committee inquiry into the Effectiveness of the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement institutions |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Evidence to the Select Committee on the need for institutional reforms. Impacts may depend upon the Select Committee final report |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/113427/pdf/ |