Decision Maker Panel
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Nottingham
Department Name: Sch of Economics
Abstract
The proposal draws on work to better understand conditions facing British businesses by the universities of Nottingham and Stanford, who established the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) in partnership with the Bank of England (Bank) in 2016. This was funded by the ESRC through standard grants from 2017 - 2022 and it is recognized within HM Government as essential data infrastructure. To date, DMP has been essential to gaining a better understanding of the effects of Brexit, Covid and the Ukraine war during a period of enormous economic, geo-political and social change, delivering actionable insights for policymakers at the highest levels of government. It has delivered policy-focused research that is an essential resource for the Bank of England, HM Treasury, 10 Downing St and the Cabinet Office, Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) since 2016. It has received the ESRC Celebrating Impact Prize (second prize) 2021, it was described by the Deputy National Statistician as 'a game changer for business surveys', and 'world leading' 4* impact case study by REF2021.
The ability to maintain a large, representative survey of senior business executives and to address the impacts and longer term effects of economic disruptions has made it vital infrastructure for policy. It maintains a corpus of questions that provide longitudinal quantitative information on business conditions, expectations and uncertainty and has the flexibility to adapt survey questions to new conditions as they emerge e.g. during Covid. The DMP has developed into a strategic data asset that we have made accessible to researchers beyond the core DMP team.
In this proposal we will i) gather data from key decision makers in business; ii) provide a delivery plan to analyze the data for actionable insights; and iii) make the data available to other researchers. We will build capacity in survey data collection and analysis that sustains and expands economic and societal impact.
The grant will support ongoing data collection of DMP data making it:
> One of the largest business surveys in the UK, which is maintained by minimizing attrition and continuously recruiting new firms.
> A regular source of information to businesses, journalists and academics through monthly letters sent to all the participants and the website www.decisionmakerpanel.co.uk
> An essential input to Bank of England Policy Committees (MPC, FPC), HM Treasury, BEIS and OBR drawing on DMP research analysis to support the actions and communication of policy
The research we undertake will address six vital questions:
1. What are the effects of Brexit on employment, investment, R&D, productivity growth, trade, prices, and wages of UK firms?
2. What are the uncertainty impacts of the COVID pandemic on firms?
3. How will firms respond to the resurgence of inflation?
4. How will investment growth policies announced in several Budgets and fiscal statements incentivize UK firms?
5. What effects will climate change make to firm investment and risk exposure?
6. What effect does CEO leadership have on performance?
We draw on a highly-experienced established team of international researchers that have created a 'world-leading' survey to address We draw on a highly-experienced established team of international researchers that have created 'world-leading' surveys to address similar policy related research since 2016 in collaboration with the Bank of England, HM Government and the Office for National Statistics. Drawing on senior academics from Nottingham and Stanford we offer benefits to academics and users of the research through academic papers in top five economics journals, blogs, podcasts and media outputs, impact for policy making. We will create a publicly accessible dataset and build capacity in survey design and analysis by training a new cohort of early career researchers, giving them opportunities for secondment and career advancement.
The ability to maintain a large, representative survey of senior business executives and to address the impacts and longer term effects of economic disruptions has made it vital infrastructure for policy. It maintains a corpus of questions that provide longitudinal quantitative information on business conditions, expectations and uncertainty and has the flexibility to adapt survey questions to new conditions as they emerge e.g. during Covid. The DMP has developed into a strategic data asset that we have made accessible to researchers beyond the core DMP team.
In this proposal we will i) gather data from key decision makers in business; ii) provide a delivery plan to analyze the data for actionable insights; and iii) make the data available to other researchers. We will build capacity in survey data collection and analysis that sustains and expands economic and societal impact.
The grant will support ongoing data collection of DMP data making it:
> One of the largest business surveys in the UK, which is maintained by minimizing attrition and continuously recruiting new firms.
> A regular source of information to businesses, journalists and academics through monthly letters sent to all the participants and the website www.decisionmakerpanel.co.uk
> An essential input to Bank of England Policy Committees (MPC, FPC), HM Treasury, BEIS and OBR drawing on DMP research analysis to support the actions and communication of policy
The research we undertake will address six vital questions:
1. What are the effects of Brexit on employment, investment, R&D, productivity growth, trade, prices, and wages of UK firms?
2. What are the uncertainty impacts of the COVID pandemic on firms?
3. How will firms respond to the resurgence of inflation?
4. How will investment growth policies announced in several Budgets and fiscal statements incentivize UK firms?
5. What effects will climate change make to firm investment and risk exposure?
6. What effect does CEO leadership have on performance?
We draw on a highly-experienced established team of international researchers that have created a 'world-leading' survey to address We draw on a highly-experienced established team of international researchers that have created 'world-leading' surveys to address similar policy related research since 2016 in collaboration with the Bank of England, HM Government and the Office for National Statistics. Drawing on senior academics from Nottingham and Stanford we offer benefits to academics and users of the research through academic papers in top five economics journals, blogs, podcasts and media outputs, impact for policy making. We will create a publicly accessible dataset and build capacity in survey design and analysis by training a new cohort of early career researchers, giving them opportunities for secondment and career advancement.
Publications
Bunn P
(2024)
The Decision Maker Panel: A User's Guide
in SSRN Electronic Journal
Bunn P
(2024)
How Curvy is the Phillips Curve?
Bunn P
(2025)
How Curvy is the Phillips Curve?
in SSRN Electronic Journal
Bunn P
(2024)
How Curvy is the Phillips Curve?
in SSRN Electronic Journal
Srivastava P
(2024)
Firm Climate Investment: A Glass Half-Full
in SSRN Electronic Journal
Srivastava P
(2024)
Firm Climate Investment: A Glass Half-full
in SSRN Electronic Journal
Srivastava P
(2024)
Firm Climate Investment: A Glass Half-Full
Yotzov I
(2023)
Firm Inflation Uncertainty
in AEA Papers and Proceedings
Yotzov I
(2023)
Firm Inflation Uncertainty
Yotzov I
(2023)
Firm Inflation Uncertainty
in SSRN Electronic Journal
Related Projects
| Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Award Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES/X013707/1 | 20/03/2023 | 29/06/2023 | £1,462,320 | ||
| ES/X013707/2 | Transfer | ES/X013707/1 | 30/06/2023 | 19/03/2026 | £1,339,999 |
| Description | Brexit. Since the inception of the DMP survey we have regularly asked firms whether they view Brexit as an important source of uncertainty for their business. Brexit generated a long-lasting increase in uncertainty. At the peak in 2019, around 60% of UK firms viewed Brexit as an important source of uncertainty for them. Uncertainty has fallen since the UK left the EU at the end of 2019, and particularly since the end of the transition period a year later, but some uncertainty still remains. In the latest data, around 20% of firms still reported that Brexit was an important source of uncertainty for them. That proportion has been relatively stable for the last year and has not fallen further since the Windsor Framework was agreed in February 2023. Between May and July of this year, firms were also asked again about the long-run impact that they expect Brexit to have on their sales. The impact averaged around -3%, which was similar to earlier estimates. Looking at the effects on the economy we find that firms with higher prior exposure to the EU have experienced significantly lower investment, employment and TFP growth since the Brexit referendum. Our results imply that by financial year 2022, business investment was 12% lower, whole economy employment 2% lower and TFP 3% lower.[1] Combining these micro-estimates for different variables together implies that Brexit has lowered UK GDP by around 5%. Inflation. We present three key findings. First, we document that firms have been attentive to CPI inflation trends. CPI inflation perceptions update very quickly following monthly data releases, with a highly significant impact seen from the day of the release. The pass-through from CPI inflation to perceptions is not 100% on impact, but grows over time. We also show that inflation perceptions are equally responsive to positive as well as negative changes in CPI inflation. Second, we analyse the impact of changes in CPI inflation on firms' expected year-ahead own-price growth. We find that over the 2022-2024 period, own-price expectations responded significantly to changes in aggregate inflation. A one percentage point increase in headline CPI inflation is associated with a 0.6 percentage point increase in expected own-price growth. Furthermore, we find that the sensitivity to data releases is non-linear, with highly significant effects for positive CPI inflation changes, and a quantitatively smaller and less significant effect for negative CPI inflation changes. Finally, we show that these effects on price expectations are also absent in the previous, relatively low-inflation period between 2018 and 2021. These 3 effects highlight how firm expectations formation changes in high-inflation environments. Likewise, the lower responsiveness to CPI inflation decreases could imply a slower decline in firm price growth over the near term, even as CPI inflation falls and external shocks dissipate. DMP data has monitored and assessed the inflation pressures in the UK economy arising from price-setting and inflation expectations of businesses, as well as monitoring the impact of higher interest rates used to tackle inflation. During the Treasury Committee session on 23 May 2023, External MPC member Catherine Mann emphasized the persistence of inflation, noting that traditional models underestimated this persistence due to their reliance on historical data. She highlighted the importance of the DMP survey in providing real-time insights into firms' pricing expectations. Governor Andrew Bailey discussed how firms' forward-looking price settings are influenced by both past costs and future inflation expectations, with the DMP survey being a crucial tool in capturing these insights. In the June 2023 letter from the Governor to the Chancellor, the DMP contributed valuable insights into firms' pricing expectations and behaviours. The DMP survey provided real-time data on how firms were setting prices in response to ongoing economic conditions, which helped the Bank of England understand the underlying factors driving CPI inflation at 8.7% in May. For the September 2023 letter, the DMP continued to play a crucial role by offering updated information on firms' pricing strategies and expectations for future price changes. This data was instrumental in explaining the decrease in CPI inflation to 6.7% in August, as it highlighted the impact of lower energy and food price inflation. The DMP's contributions helped the Bank of England assess the persistence of inflationary pressures and adjust their forecasts accordingly. In the November 2024 Treasury Committee session, External MPC member Catherine Mann, Deputy Governor Lombardelli and Governor Bailey discussed the impact of wage dynamics and the role of the DMP in capturing firms' expectations for future prices and wages. They noted that while there was some deceleration in forward-looking prices and wages earlier in the year, these indicators had remained flat above target rates for several months, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. The DMP survey provided valuable data on firms' pricing and wage-setting behaviours, which were critical in forming the Bank of England's inflation forecasts. In December 2024, Governor Andrew Bailey wrote "Data from the Decision Maker Panel have proved especially valuable in helping us understand the implications of some of the significant economic events that have hit the UK economy over recent years. Most recently, they have been used as a key indicator to assess the prospects for wage and price growth in the economy. For my part, I study each one with great interest. Last week, I used it in a presentation on the economy." |
| Exploitation Route | It is still being used by Policy Committee of the Bank of England to inform policy decisions over interest rates, communicate decision making through official documents such as minutes and the Monetary Policy Report, and inform the public through speeches. |
| Sectors | Creative Economy |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/ |
| Description | Decision Maker Panel The research from the Decision Maker Panel continues to be used at the highest levels of UK policymaking in the Bank of England, 10 Downing St, Cabinet Office, HM Treasury and DBT. The Bank used the DMP in eight speeches by the Governors and Monetary Policy Committee members and official publications such as the Monetary Policy Reports and Minutes of the MPC meetings etc 2023-2024. Working with the HM Treasury we are using DMP to evaluate the effectiveness of Superdeduction and Full Expensing policies introduced in Budgets 2018-2023 to provide tax relief to allow companies to claim the cost of qualifying plant and machinery (capital investment). The DMP has begun to explore the impact of rising inflation and interest rates, helping MPC members at the Bank of England to understand the persistence in inflation in the UK and the effects that higher interest rates have on UK businesses. We are also exploring the steps the UK businesses are taking to deal with climate change. The DMP met with HM Treasury and HMRC to discuss the impact of Superdeduction and Full Expensing policies on business investment by comparing the impact observed in response to the DMP survey and the CT600 tax returns. DMP data has monitored and assessed the inflation pressures in the UK economy arising from price-setting and inflation expectations of businesses, as well as monitoring the impact of higher interest rates used to tackle inflation. During the Treasury Committee session on 23 May 2023, External MPC member Catherine Mann emphasized the persistence of inflation, noting that traditional models underestimated this persistence due to their reliance on historical data. She highlighted the importance of the DMP survey in providing real-time insights into firms' pricing expectations. Governor Andrew Bailey discussed how firms' forward-looking price settings are influenced by both past costs and future inflation expectations, with the DMP survey being a crucial tool in capturing these insights. In the June 2023 letter from the Governor to the Chancellor, the DMP contributed valuable insights into firms' pricing expectations and behaviours. The DMP survey provided real-time data on how firms were setting prices in response to ongoing economic conditions, which helped the Bank of England understand the underlying factors driving CPI inflation at 8.7% in May. For the September 2023 letter, the DMP continued to play a crucial role by offering updated information on firms' pricing strategies and expectations for future price changes. This data was instrumental in explaining the decrease in CPI inflation to 6.7% in August, as it highlighted the impact of lower energy and food price inflation. The DMP's contributions helped the Bank of England assess the persistence of inflationary pressures and adjust their forecasts accordingly. In the November 2024 Treasury Committee session, External MPC member Catherine Mann, Deputy Governor Lombardelli and Governor Bailey discussed the impact of wage dynamics and the role of the DMP in capturing firms' expectations for future prices and wages. They noted that while there was some deceleration in forward-looking prices and wages earlier in the year, these indicators had remained flat above target rates for several months, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. The DMP survey provided valuable data on firms' pricing and wage-setting behaviours, which were critical in forming the Bank of England's inflation forecasts. In December 2024, Governor Andrew Bailey wrote "Data from the Decision Maker Panel have proved especially valuable in helping us understand the implications of some of the significant economic events that have hit the UK economy over recent years. Most recently, they have been used as a key indicator to assess the prospects for wage and price growth in the economy. For my part, I study each one with great interest. Last week, I used it in a presentation on the economy." |
| First Year Of Impact | 2022 |
| Sector | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Agriculture, Food and Drink,Chemicals,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Construction,Creative Economy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Electronics,Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Government, Democracy and Justice,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections,Retail,Tr |
| Impact Types | Societal Economic Policy & public services |
| Description | 19/12/2023 - Paul Mizen - Catherine Mann Meeting |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
| Impact | Looked at the current output of the DMP project as well as looking at areas of economic uncertainty for the future. |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/people/catherine-mann/biography |
| Description | 25/10/2023 - Paul Mizen - talk for Elgin Advisory to a large audience of professional economists online. |
| Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
| Impact | Sharing ideas with other Economists |
| URL | https://www.elginadvisory.com/ |
| Description | 29/11/2023 - Paul Mizen - Huw Pill Meeting, Bank of England to discuss DMP |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
| Impact | Looking to the future of the DMP, and how to incorporate the current economic uncertainty factors |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/people/huw-pill/biography |
| Description | Bank of England, Internal presentation, MPC Policy meeting |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | Presented the Updates on inflation persistence: evidence on wage and price growth from the DMP to appraise the policy makers, and researchers. |
| Description | HM Treasury about the effectiveness of super deduction policy and full expensing in July 2023 (audience of senior officials); |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Discussed the effectiveness of super deduction policy and full expensing with senior officials |
| Title | Decision Maker Panel |
| Description | The three objectives of this project are to: (A) build, (B) analyse and (C) share the data from a Bank of England, HM Treasury, Nottingham and Stanford survey of subjective expectations for UK firms. This survey has been running since August 2016 inside the Bank of England and now continues under ESRC and Bank of England, University of Nottingham and Stanford University funding. The project collects 5-bin subjective expectations data on sales, employment, investment, costs and other outcomes to gauge the impact of economic uncertainty on firms' decision making. This UK survey is based on two highly successful US surveys by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Board and the US Census, which Nicholas Bloom (co-PI) helped design and run. We have successfully recruited firms to our panel. Our first team manager (Kate Fisher) who held the post for one year, developed a collection of guidance notes for analysts, protocols and detailed spreadsheets to monitor performance. When she left the project in August 2018, she handed over the management role to Julia Leather who has assumed her responsibilities. We have tested and interviewed more than 100 applicants for the analyst positions, appointing more than 70 to work part time. These analysts make first contact with firms from our sampling frame. We train analysts, incentivise them to recruit firms to our panel, and monitor their performance. We now have over 6,000 firms in the panel. Firms that agree to participate have been added to our Bank of England "Decision Maker Panel" and they receive monthly e-mails requesting a response to a very short (4 minute) monthly survey. The sampling frame of firms is randomly taken from the UK BVD AMADEUS database (which we have free access to) which contains the population of all UK public and private firms. We have extensively tested our sample for evidence of bias, in recruitment to the sample and response to the survey given that they have been recruited, and our findings show no bias in responses, and only small (1%) bias in initial recruitment. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2016 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | We have analysed the data to estimate the impact of the Brexit process on investment, employment growth, wages, prices etc of firms across the UK, and by region, industry and type. Our work has been extensively used by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, and has appeared in official publications such as the Inflation Report, Quarterly Bulletin and Quarterly Bank Agents' Briefings. It has been used to answer question in Parliament. Our work has been written up and presented many times to central banks and academic audiences, it has been summarised in media articles in the Financial Times, Times, Independent, Guardian. We have accepted invitations to present our work at prestigious UK and US conferences including special sessions and keynotes at the Royal Economic Society and the ESCoE measurement conferences. |
| Title | DMP data for Q2 - 2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data set is made available for researchers and panel members who are part of the DMP survey. It is also made available for general public on the DMP website. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/quarterly-dmp-data-july-2024-1.xlsx |
| Title | DMP data for Q4 - 2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data set is made available for researchers and panel members who are part of the DMP survey. It is also made available for general public and all the stake holders on the DMP website. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/quarterly-dmp-data-january-2025.xlsx |
| Title | DMP-Apr-2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data set is made available for researchers and panel members who are part of the DMP survey. It is also made available for general public and all the stakeholders on the DMP website. |
| Title | DMP-Aug-2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data set is made available for researchers and panel members who are part of the DMP survey. It is also made available for general public and all the stake holders on the DMP website. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/monthly-dmp-data-for-website-august-2024... |
| Title | DMP-Dec-2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/monthly-dmp-data-for-website-december-20... |
| Title | DMP-Feb-2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data set is made available for researchers and panel members who are part of the DMP survey. It is also made available for general public on the DMP website. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Website-Upload-Monthly-DMP-Graphs-Feb24.... |
| Title | DMP-Jan-2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data set is made available for researchers and panel members who are part of the DMP survey. It is also made available for general public on the DMP website. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Website-Upload-Monthly-DMP-Graphs-Jan24.... |
| Title | DMP-Jul-2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data set is made available for researchers and panel members who are part of the DMP survey. It is also made available for general public and all the stake holders on the DMP website. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Website-DMP-July-Data-20241.xlsx |
| Title | DMP-June-2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data set is made available for researchers and panel members who are part of the DMP survey. It is also made available for general public and all the stake holders on the DMP website. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/monthly-dmp-data-for-website-june-2024-5... |
| Title | DMP-Mar-2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data set is made available for researchers and panel members who are part of the DMP survey. It is also made available for general public on the DMP website. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Website-Upload-Monthly-DMP-Graphs-Mar24.... |
| Title | DMP-May-2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data set is made available for researchers and panel members who are part of the DMP survey. It is also made available for general public and all the stake holders on the DMP website. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Website-DMP-May-Data-2024.xlsx |
| Title | DMP-Nov-2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data set is made available for researchers and panel members who are part of the DMP survey. It is also made available for general public and all the stake holders on the DMP website. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Monthly-DMP-data-for-website-November-20... |
| Title | DMP-Oct-2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data set is made available for researchers and panel members who are part of the DMP survey. It is also made available for general public and all the stake holders on the DMP website. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/monthly-dmp-data-for-website-october-202... |
| Title | DMP-Q1-2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data set is made available for researchers and panel members who are part of the DMP survey. It is also made available for general public on the DMP website. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Website-Graphs-Quarterly-DMP-Apr24-2024Q... |
| Title | DMP-Q3-2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data set is made available for researchers and panel members who are part of the DMP survey. It is also made available for general public and all the stake holders on the DMP website. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/quarterly-dmp-data-july-2024-1.xlsx |
| Title | DMP-Sept-2024 |
| Description | Data set contains the post analysis results of the DMP survey. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2024 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The data set is made available for researchers and panel members who are part of the DMP survey. It is also made available for general public and all the stake holders on the DMP website. |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Website-DMP-July-Data-20241.xlsx |
| Description | 05/10/2023 - Nick Bloom - Firming Up Price Inflation - Chicargo University |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation made to academics at Chicago University |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | 06/09/2023 - Ivan Yotzov - Price Inflation Uncertainty/Firming Up Price Inflation - SITE Conference (September 2023) - Stanford University |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | We introduce a new measure of own-price inflation uncertainty using firm-level data from a large and representative survey of UK businesses. Inflation uncertainty increased significantly from the start of 2021 and reached a peak in the second half of 2022, even as a similar measure of sales uncertainty declined. We also find large cross-sectional differences in inflation uncertainty, with uncertainty particularly elevated for smaller firms and those in the goods sector. Finally, we show that firms which are more uncertain about their own price expectations experience higher forecast errors 12 months later. These findings suggest that studying inflation uncertainty at the firm level may be an important new dimension to understanding firm performance. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://economics.stanford.edu/events/site-2023/session-12-macroeconomics-uncertainty-and-volatility |
| Description | 09/11/2023 - Ivan Yotzov - CPI releases and inflation expectations: Evidence from the DMP - CBBS Conference (November 2023) - New Orleans, USA |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The annual Central Bank Business Survey Conference, organized in partnership with the Central Bank Business Survey and Liaison Programs, provides a forum for researchers, practitioners, and business liaisons to share their expertise in business survey administration and methodology and to discuss survey results and analysis. The conference is designed to promote open discussion and exchange of ideas on a range of topics, including but not limited to the collection and analysis of qualitative business intelligence, business survey results as an input into central bank decision-making processes, and innovations in survey administration and methodology. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.atlantafed.org/news/conferences-and-events/conferences/2023/11/08/central-bank-business-... |
| Description | 11/10/2023 - Nick Bloom - Estimating The Impact of Brexit - Wharton University |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation on Estimating the Impact of Brexit to Wharton University |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | 12/10/2023 - Nick Bloom - Estimating The Impact of Brexit - Yale University |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presentation on Estimating The Impact of Brexit to Yale University |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | 16/11/2023 - Phil Bunn - Impact of Brexit on UK firms Bank of England - workshop for Central Bank researchers |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Bank of England - workshop for Central Bank researchers |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/events/2023/november/escb-research-cluster2-progra... |
| Description | 2023 - References In Other Publications |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Speech by Ben Broadbent, Member of the MPC, Signal Versus Noise, December 2023 Speech by Megan Greene, Member of the MPC, Are We There Yet? A Journey into Monetary Policy And Medium-Term Factors, November 2023 Speech by Dave Ramsden, Member of the MPC, Back to the Future, November 2023 Speech by Jonathan Haskel, Member of the MPC, Implications of Current Wage Inflation, November 2023 Speech by Catherine L. Mann, Member of the MPC, Inflation Models and Research: Distilling Dynamics For Monetary Policy Decision-Making, September 2023 Monetary Policy Report, October 2023, p. 20, p. 98 VoxEU Profits In A Time Of Inflation: Some Insights From Recent And Past Energy Shocks In The UK, September 2023 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, September 2023, p. 5, p. 7 Report Reveals Impact Of COVID-19 Research And Innovation Funding (UKRI), September 2023 Speech by Catherine L. Mann, Member of the MPC, Inflation Models and Research: Distilling Dynamics For Monetary Policy Decision Making, September 2023 Monetary Policy Report, August 2023, p. 10, p. 49, p. 66-69, p. 88 Slides From Huw Pill, Recent Experiences In Macroeconomic Forecasting, June 2023 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, June 2023, p. 7 Monetary Policy Report, May 2023, p. 22, p. 47-48, p. 68-69, p. 77-78, p. 84-86 Speech by Huw Pill, Inflation Persistence and Monetary Policy, April 2023 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, March 2023, p. 11 Speech by Huw Pill, Member of the MPC, Gauging (dis)Inflationary Pressures: Comparing Tools and Current Findings, February 2023, Slides, 7, 9-10 Speech by Catherine L. Mann, Member of the MPC, Turning Points and Monetary Policy Strategy Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, February 2023, p. 50-51, p. 53, p. 55, p.62, p.87-88 Monetary Policy Report, February 2023, p. 88 Speech by Huw Pill, Member of the MPC, UK Monetary Policy Outlook, January 2023 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | 21/0/2023 - Phil Bunn - Management & Big Data - Venice - Impact of Brexit on UK Firms |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | What data firms collect, how they use them, and whether they have tools in place that facilitate data driven decision making, including machine learning and AI based methods, is at the core of modern productivity studies. As is the question of what facilitates or hinders adoption of these modern methods. With this workshop the organizers brought together researchers to discuss the state of affairs and push the frontier of knowledge on these extremely important questions. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.cesifo.org/en/vsi23-big-data |
| Description | 21/09/2023 - Ivan Yotzov - Firming Up Price Inflation - ICEA Conference (June 2023) - Pandemics, Labour Markets and Inflation - Italy |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | 5th Warsaw Money-Macro-Finance Conference September 21-22, 2023, Warsaw, Poland The International Centre for Economic Analysis (ICEA) - Warsaw Chapter invites papers to be considered for the 5th Warsaw Money-Macro-Finance Conference at Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Poland. We invite papers in all areas of macroeconomics and finance, including monetary and fiscal policies, business cycle analysis, general equilibrium, growth theory, financial analysis and related fields. The main objective of this meeting is to stimulate cooperation of researchers from all over the world. Young economists are particularly encouraged to apply. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://iceanet.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/ICEA_program_2023.pdf |
| Description | 24/06/2023 - Ivan Yotzov - Firming Up Inflation - BCEA Annual Conference (June 2023) - Bulgarian Council for Economic Analyses |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | 30-40 people, a mix of academics and some politicians (the Prime Minister of Bulgaria made the opening remarks) - Firming Up Inflation |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://cea.egov.bg/wps/portal/cea-web-en/conference-en |
| Description | 25/10/2023 - Nick Bloom - Estimating The Impact of Brexit - Davis University |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presenation on Estimating the Impact of Brexit to Davis University |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | 31/01/2024 - Paul Mizen - DMP Finding to a Small Audience of Professional Economists |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | An opportunity on 31 January to present DMP findings to a small audience of professional economists in person |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | A magazine, newsletter or online publication - 2024 - References In Other Publications |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Monetary Policy Report, February 2024, p. 17, p. 45, p. 49, p. 56-57, p. 75, p. 81-82 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ |
| Description | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview - 2024 - Media Coverage |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Financial Times, February 2024: Work From Home If You Want but Don't Expect A Pay Rise Investment Week, February 2024: UK Businesses Forecast Price Inflation Drops Throughout 2024 The Times, January 2024: Interest Rates Will Stay High Until the Pay Juggernaut Slows Down The Bank Underground, January 2024: Beyond The Average: Patterns In UK Price Data at The Micro Level |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/ |
| Description | Ashoka University, Economics Department Weekly Seminar |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Virtual event aimed at postgraduate students at Ashoka University, India. Event was attended by 20 students |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://www.ashoka.edu.in/event/gentle-reminder-economics-department-weekly-seminars/ |
| Description | Bank Underground, July 2023: Firm Inflation Perceptions And Expectations: Evidence From The Decision Maker Panel |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Since late 2021, annual CPI inflation in the UK increased sharply. Alongside this increase, there was also a significant rise in firm and household short-term inflation expectations. In this post, we use data from the Decision Maker Panel (DMP), a UK-wide monthly business survey, to study whether there is an effect of CPI data releases on firms' current inflation perceptions and year-ahead inflation expectations over the past four years. We find that on average firms' perceptions of current CPI inflation have been close to the eventual outturn. Furthermore, one-year ahead own-price expectations respond significantly to CPI outturns, with the effects being particularly strong since the start of 2022. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://bankunderground.co.uk/2023/07/07/firm-inflation-perceptions-and-expectations-evidence-from-t... |
| Description | Bank of England - Kent - Bristol Workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presented paper titled How curvy is the Phillips Curve, at Bank of England - Kent - Bristol Workshop |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | Bank of England, Internal presentation event for policy makers |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | internal Bank presentation to MPC/Monetary Analysis area in MPC forecast round. Event was attended by around 150 policy makers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | Bank of Italy Conference I 36th SUERF Colloquium, Rome |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Presented the paper titled "How curvy is the Philip Curve" at Bank of Italy Conference I 36th SUERF Colloquium, Rome. Event was attended by more than 50 academics and policy makers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | Blog for Bank of England |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Published blog titled "High hurdles: evidence on corporate investment hurdle rates in the UK", for Bank of England with a view to engage with policy makers, academics and other important stake holders. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://bankunderground.co.uk/2024/08/22/high-hurdles-evidence-on-corporate-investment-hurdle-rates-... |
| Description | Blog for Bank of England |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Published results of DMP Q1 2024 results on bank of England website with a view to engage all the relevant stake holders. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2024/2024-q1/latest-results-from-the-decision-maker-p... |
| Description | Blog for Bank of England |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Blog explaining the 100 months of DMP survey with a view to engage with all the stake holders. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/bank-overground/2024/one-hundred-months-of-the-decision-maker-panel |
| Description | Blog for Bank of England |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Study participants or study members |
| Results and Impact | Blag discussing the quarterly results of the decision maker panel was published with an aim to engage with all the stake holders. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2024/2024-q2/latest-results-from-the-decision-maker-p... |
| Description | Blog for Bank of England |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Decision Maker Panel Survey quarterly survey aimed at all the stake holders of the panel. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2024/2024-q3/latest-results-from-the-decision-maker-p... |
| Description | Blog for CEPR |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Published blog titled "Impact of higher interest rates on UK firms", with a view to engage with the policy makers and relevant stake holders. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-higher-interest-rates-uk-firms |
| Description | Buenos Aires, Society for Economic Dynamics Conference |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Presented the paper titled "Intertemporal pass through" at society for economic dynamics conference at Buenos Aries. The event was attended by approximately 30 academics. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://www.utdt.edu/ver_contenido.php?id_contenido=25170&id_item_menu=41384 |
| Description | Decision Maker Panel Survey - 2024 Q4, blog for bank of england |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Quarterly update on the DMP survey data results. Blog published on the Bank of England website. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2024/2024-q4/latest-results-from-the-decision-maker-p... |
| Description | How curvy is the Phillips Curve, ETH Zurich |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | KOF-ETH-UZH International Economic Policy Seminar - Ivan Yotzov: "How Curvy is the Phillips Curve?" Paper presentation involved presenting the research output with the academics and invite the feedback. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://kof.ethz.ch/news-und-veranstaltungen/event-calendar-page/Veranstaltungs_Details.kofethuzh-in... |
| Description | Ivan - 17/05/2023 - "Inflation expectations and uncertainty in the Decision Maker Panel" in a special session on "The role of inflation expectations" EScoE Conference on Economic Measurement (May 2023) London |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence held its annual conference, organised in partnership with the UK Office for National Statistics on 17-19 May 2023 at King's Business School, King's College London. The conference is a meeting place for discussing recent research advances in economic measurement and statistics. The programme included papers on many aspects of measurement and the use of economic statistics, focusing on the following themes: Inclusive Wealth Measures and Looking Beyond GDP; National Accounts (measurement issues regarding Prices, International Trade, Foreign Direct Investment); Net-Zero, Climate Change and the Environment; Subnational Statistics; Productivity and Innovation; Labour Markets, Households and Inequality. The Keynote Speakers included: Professor David Miles (Imperial College, London), Professor Diane Coyle (University of Cambridge and ESCoE) and Professor Javier Miranda (IWH and Friedrich-Schiller University). The Scientific Committee Co-Chairs were: Bart Los (University of Groningen and ESCoE), Mary O'Mahony (King's College London and ESCoE) and Arthur Turrell (Data Science Campus, ONS). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.escoe.ac.uk/events/escoe-conference-on-economic-measurement-2023/ |
| Description | Joint BoC - ECB - NY Fed Conference, Frankfurt |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presented paper titled "The Speed of Firm Response to Inflation" at Joint BoC - ECB - NY Fed Conference, Frankfurt. Was an hybrid event attended by around 40 people including policy makers and academics. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20241001_boc_ecb_nyfed.en.html |
| Description | Money, Macro and Finance Conference, Manchester |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Presented paper titled "Evidence on the use and importance of corporate hurdle rates in the UK", event was attended by around 20 academics. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://www.mmf.ac.uk/conference/2024-conference/ |
| Description | Money, Macro and Finance Conference, Manchester |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Presented paper titled "The Speed of Firm Response to Inflation". The event was attended by around 20 academics. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://www.mmf.ac.uk/conference/2024-conference/ |
| Description | Money, Macro and Finance Workshop, Birmingham |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Presented paper titled How curvy is the Phillips Curve, at Money, Macro and Finance Workshop, Birmingham. Attended by 20-30 academics. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://www.mmf.ac.uk/research-networks/mrn2024/ |
| Description | Nick Bloom - 16/01/2023 - Estimating The Impact of Brexit - Chicago University |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | presentation given to main academic on Estimating the Impact of Brexit |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.uchicago.edu/en |
| Description | Nick Bloom - 31/03/2023 - IMF - Estimating The Impact of Brexit |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | presentation given to 100 Academics & Policy Makers |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.imf.org/en/Home |
| Description | November 2023 - Paul Mizen - senior officials from DLUHC 15 to talk about DMP data |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Talk/presentation to present and discuss key finding from the DMP data |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-levelling-up-housing-and-communities |
| Description | Paper presentation at LSE |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Presented the paper titled "How curvy is the Philips curve?" at LSE. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | Presentation, Chicago Fed |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presented paper titled "How Curvey is the Philips Curve?", event was attended by academics and policy makers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | Princeton University, USA |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Paper presentation at the Princeton University, USA. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | Productivity Puzzles, April 2022: Staying Productive In Uncertain Times |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | How do we respond to uncertainties that crises create? Are they holding us back in investing, hiring and innovating? Or can crises make us more agile and resilient, perhaps even more creative and inventive? How do we balance risks and opportunities? And what might that mean for productivity? The combination of the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit and the renewed level of geopolitical uncertainty from the war in Ukraine will upset our economies, businesses, jobs and living standards for years to come. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://pod.co/productivity-puzzles/staying-productive-in-uncertain-times |
| Description | Quarterly Results Summaries - Released in conjunction with Bank of Englands Agents - Up to 2023 Q4 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2023 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2023 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2023 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2023 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2022 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2022 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2022 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2022 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q2 2022 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2022 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q1 2022 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2021 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q4 2021 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2021 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2021 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2021 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q2 2021 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2021 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q1 2021 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2020 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q4 2020 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2020 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2020 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2020 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q2 2020 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2020 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q1 2020 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2019 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q4 2019 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2019 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2019 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2019 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q2 2019 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2019 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q1 2019 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2018 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q4 2018 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2018 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2018 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2018 Q2 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q2 2018 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2018 Q1 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q1 2018 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2017 Q4 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q4 2017 RESULTS FROM THE DECISION MAKER PANEL 2017 Q3 published as part of the Bank of England Agents' summary of business conditions Q3 2017 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024 |
| URL | https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/results-summaries/ |
| Description | Royal Economic Society Conference, Belfast |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Presented paper titled "Firming up Price Convexity", event was attended by more than 50 academics. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://res.org.uk/event-listing/res-2024-annual-conference/ |
| Description | St Gallen University |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Presented research paper titled "How Curvy is the Philip Curve?" with students and academics at St Gallen University |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | UCL, Presentation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Present paper titled "How curvy is the Philips curve?", at UCL. Event was attended by academics and students. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | VocEU blog |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | Published blog title "Managers say working from home is here to stay", with a view to engage with academics and policy makers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/managers-say-working-home-here-stay |
| Description | VoxEU Post, April 2022: The Impact Of The War In Ukraine On Economic Uncertainty |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The war in Ukraine has led to an increase in economic uncertainty. This column reviews developments in a number of forward-looking measures of uncertainty that are available in close to real time. Daily measures of uncertainty have increased, but by much less than during the Covid-19 pandemic. Measures of subjective uncertainty derived from firm surveys have also increased, particularly those relating to future inflation. Almost half of UK firms saw the war as an important source of uncertainty for their business in March 2022. Factors such as energy use, demand, trade, and ownership are important determinants of business uncertainty regarding the conflict. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-war-ukraine-economic-uncertainty |
| Description | VoxEU Post, August 2022: Firming Up Price Inflation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Inflation rates in the UK and US are currently at their highest levels in over 30 years. This column uses firm-level data from the Decision Maker Panel to study inflation dynamics in the UK, and in particular since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. It finds an asymmetric effect of Covid-19 on inflation: positive demand shocks increased prices at the firm level by more than negative demand shocks lowered them. In addition to the rise in price growth, the dispersion and (positive) skewness of prices as well as within-firm price uncertainty have all increased sharply since the beginning of 2021. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/firming-price-inflation |
| Description | VoxEU Post, August 2023: Price-Setting In A High-Inflation Environment |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Since 2021, inflation rates have increased sharply in many advanced economies. This column uses UK firm-level data from the Decision Maker Panel to study firm pricing strategies during the recent period of high inflation. Around 60% of firms reported that they have been setting prices by responding to specific events (state-dependent), with the remaining 40% adjusting prices at fixed intervals (time-dependent). Furthermore, state-dependent firms in the Panel changed prices more often and saw a larger and earlier initial rise in inflation rates than time-dependent firms. Such a non-linear response might help to explain why inflation has risen so much. Looking forward, these firms are expecting a larger fall in inflation rates over the year ahead. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/price-setting-high-inflation-environment |
| Description | VoxEU Post, December 2022: Firm Inflation Expectations In Quantitative And Text Data |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Inflation rates and short-term inflation expectations in the UK have increased significantly since 2021. This column uses quantitative and text data from the Decision Maker Panel to analyse the factors affecting inflation expectations at the firm level. It finds that firms' own price expectations are influenced by the labour market, input costs, energy, and, to a lesser extent, demand-side factors. Meanwhile, CPI expectations are dominated by energy cost considerations. Furthermore, it shows that the factors cited by firms are related in meaningful ways to their quantitative expectations. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/firm-inflation-expectations-quantitative-and-text-data |
| Description | VoxEU Post, February 2024: Managers Say Working from Home Is Here To Stay |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The Covid-19 pandemic led to a dramatic increase in remote work across the world. This column uses new firm-level data from the UK to study expectations about working from home. Managers forecast levels of remote work within their own firms in 2028 that are almost identical to the levels in 2023. But aggregate working from home could still increase as younger firms tend to make more use of remote working, and they are likely to grow more quickly in the future. Matching this survey data to detailed firm accounts data shows that firms with higher levels of working from home have higher productivity and lower wage growth. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/managers-say-working-home-here-stay |
| Description | VoxEU Post, January 2022: 'Potential Capital', Working From Home, And Economic Resilience |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The impact of an economic shock depends both on its severity and the resilience of the response. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a widespread decline in recorded GDP, but this was buffered by an unprecedented and spontaneous deployment of 'potential capital' - the dwelling/residential capital and connective technologies used while working from home. This column estimates that together, potential capital and labour working from home provided additional output margins and capacity which roughly halved the decline in GDP in the US and revises downwards the estimated total productivity gains in the business sector during the pandemic. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/potential-capital-working-home-and-economic-resilience |
| Description | Yale University, USA |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Schools |
| Results and Impact | Paper presentation on Brexit at Yale university USA. Event was attended by academics and students. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |