Predicting urban food insecurity under climate change in Brazilian Amazonia
Lead Research Organisation:
Lancaster University
Department Name: Lancaster Environment Centre
Abstract
The ultimate goal of climate policy is to mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, this is a strategy with decadal or centurial timescales. An equally important and more urgent concern is to reduce the impacts of climate change by improving the adaptive capacity of poor, marginalized populations to severe weather events such as droughts and floods. Extreme events such as floods and droughts cause significant economic losses, and threaten human health and food security. Droughts probably have the greatest negative impacts in regions such as the Amazon, where river transport is the main way of distributing food. For example, Amazon droughts in 2005 and 2010 disrupted food distribution and led to dozens of deaths from malnutrition and declarations of state of emergency. Increased journey times and transport problems leads to higher food prices. When food prices are high, poorest families suffer most and lack access to adequate food and nutrition. The danger that droughts pose to food security in these regions will increase in the future because of climate change causing reduced rainfall, which leads to lower river levels. This project will develop a computer-based tool for predicting where and when food security of city-dwellers will be threatened by droughts, because of higher food prices. The tool will be based on data that we collect in small cities in the Amazon, including prices of important foods (meat and rice, for example). We will also use a series of questions to establish whether urban families have sufficient access to nutritious and affordable food. We will combine this information with information on river levels and poverty distribution across the whole Amazon (collected by the Brazilian government) and analyze data using statistical techniques normally used to predict disease outbreaks. The outcome of this analysis will be a tool that can generate maps to show the level of Food Security Risk for each of the hundreds of municipalities in the Amazon. This will help the Brazilian government to be strategic and invest their resources in the cities that are predicted to have most people suffering from malnutrition during droughts.
Planned Impact
Who will benefit from this research? Understanding how climate change and poverty interact to cause food insecurity in developing countries provides vital information for reducing the negative impacts of environmental change. Owing to its novel, topical and applied nature, this research will bring significant benefits to the academic community, governments and the public in UK, Brazil and elsewhere.
How will these groups benefit? 1. Academia: This research will advance the role of quantitative social science as means of understanding major global challenges and developing solutions. This research will generate significant excitement and interest in academic communities, including climate change science, natural hazards research, global environmental change, food security and development studies. Results will be delivered to the scientific community through high-impact publications and conference presentations. Brazilian academia will benefit from cross-disciplinary collaborations (e.g. health sciences and space science) and building new links between partner institutions in Amazonia (e.g. Federal University of Pará) and the dominant South-East of Brazil (e.g. IPEA).
2. Governments: The UK government is actively seeking to advance global efforts to understand and tackle climate change and food insecurity. The proposed research would provide novel evidence for predicting vulnerability to climate change and extreme climatic events. We will maximise the potential benefits of this research to the UK government by preparing a policy brief or Parliamentary PostNote and liaising with the Department for International Development (DFID) and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FAO). This research will also provide substantial benefits to various levels of government in Brazil, facilitated by close engagement with relevant agencies throughout the research process. This will maximise the potential benefits and adoption of the predictive food insecurity tool to aid planning and disaster response. This would provide the Brazilian government with access to an evidence-based system for strategic investment in adaptive capacity for areas with the greatest vulnerability, and increased ability to intervene effectively during disasters in distribution of resources (e.g. food, fuel, healthcare). In addition to meetings with federal institutions (National Water Agency (ANA); Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA); National Secretariat of Civil Defence (Defesa Civil), Ministry of Health (FUNASA), the PI will develop a policy briefing at the end of the project. Scientists within key Brazilian institutions (National Institute of Space Research (INPE), health research agency, FioCruz) will directly benefit through the sharing of model code (done in open-access R) during the research process.
3. The public: The dissemination plan for this research will help to increase general understanding about climate adaptation and food insecurity. I will engage with the public in Lancashire using presentations in schools and community events, including through the work of admissions tutors for undergraduate programmes in the Lancaster Environment Centre. In Brazil, this research will provide a voice to those normally invisible during emergencies, where top-down approaches have been dominant. Workshops will provide new opportunities for dialogue between stakeholders and will highlight ways to maximise the impact for users of the proposed online map-based early warning system to illustrate municipality-scale vulnerability to food insecurity during droughts. Many Brazilians know little about Amazonia, and I will promote understanding of drought impacts on urban food insecurity in the region by disseminating research results to national media.
How will these groups benefit? 1. Academia: This research will advance the role of quantitative social science as means of understanding major global challenges and developing solutions. This research will generate significant excitement and interest in academic communities, including climate change science, natural hazards research, global environmental change, food security and development studies. Results will be delivered to the scientific community through high-impact publications and conference presentations. Brazilian academia will benefit from cross-disciplinary collaborations (e.g. health sciences and space science) and building new links between partner institutions in Amazonia (e.g. Federal University of Pará) and the dominant South-East of Brazil (e.g. IPEA).
2. Governments: The UK government is actively seeking to advance global efforts to understand and tackle climate change and food insecurity. The proposed research would provide novel evidence for predicting vulnerability to climate change and extreme climatic events. We will maximise the potential benefits of this research to the UK government by preparing a policy brief or Parliamentary PostNote and liaising with the Department for International Development (DFID) and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FAO). This research will also provide substantial benefits to various levels of government in Brazil, facilitated by close engagement with relevant agencies throughout the research process. This will maximise the potential benefits and adoption of the predictive food insecurity tool to aid planning and disaster response. This would provide the Brazilian government with access to an evidence-based system for strategic investment in adaptive capacity for areas with the greatest vulnerability, and increased ability to intervene effectively during disasters in distribution of resources (e.g. food, fuel, healthcare). In addition to meetings with federal institutions (National Water Agency (ANA); Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA); National Secretariat of Civil Defence (Defesa Civil), Ministry of Health (FUNASA), the PI will develop a policy briefing at the end of the project. Scientists within key Brazilian institutions (National Institute of Space Research (INPE), health research agency, FioCruz) will directly benefit through the sharing of model code (done in open-access R) during the research process.
3. The public: The dissemination plan for this research will help to increase general understanding about climate adaptation and food insecurity. I will engage with the public in Lancashire using presentations in schools and community events, including through the work of admissions tutors for undergraduate programmes in the Lancaster Environment Centre. In Brazil, this research will provide a voice to those normally invisible during emergencies, where top-down approaches have been dominant. Workshops will provide new opportunities for dialogue between stakeholders and will highlight ways to maximise the impact for users of the proposed online map-based early warning system to illustrate municipality-scale vulnerability to food insecurity during droughts. Many Brazilians know little about Amazonia, and I will promote understanding of drought impacts on urban food insecurity in the region by disseminating research results to national media.
People |
ORCID iD |
Luke Parry (Principal Investigator) | |
Benjamin Taylor (Researcher) |
Publications
Carignano Torres P
(2022)
Wildmeat consumption and child health in Amazonia.
in Scientific reports
Carignano Torres P
(2022)
Rural-urban mobility influences wildmeat access and consumption in the Brazilian Amazon
in Oryx
Chacon Erick
(2018)
Spatial Item Factor Analysis With Application to Mapping Food Insecurity
in arXiv e-prints
Chacon Montalvan EA
(2015)
Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Vector-borne Diseases in the Brazilian Amazon
Davies G
(2017)
Are There Food Deserts in Rainforest Cities?
in Annals of the American Association of Geographers
Ferreira J
(2014)
Environment and Development. Brazil's environmental leadership at risk.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Fraser J
(2017)
Amazonian peasant livelihood differentiation as mutuality-market dialectics
in The Journal of Peasant Studies
Garrett R
(2017)
Explaining the persistence of low income and environmentally degrading land uses in the Brazilian Amazon
in Ecology and Society
Mikolajczak K
(2021)
Who knows, who cares? Untangling ecological knowledge and nature connection among Amazonian colonist farmers
in People and Nature
Morello T
(2017)
Policy instruments to control Amazon fires: A simulation approach
in Ecological Economics
Parry L
(2019)
The (in)visible health risks of climate change.
in Social science & medicine (1982)
Parry L
(2017)
Social Vulnerability to Climatic Shocks Is Shaped by Urban Accessibility
in Annals of the American Association of Geographers
Parry L
(2015)
Evaluating the use of local ecological knowledge to monitor hunted tropical-forest wildlife over large spatial scales
in Ecology and Society
Parry L
(2014)
Wildlife Harvest and Consumption in Amazonia's Urbanized Wilderness
in Conservation Letters
Piva Da Silva M
(2022)
From 'prison' to 'paradise'? Seeking freedom at the rainforest frontier through urban-rural migration
in World Development
PIVA Da SILVA M
(2021)
CAPABILITY FAILURES AND CORROSIVE DISADVANTAGE IN A VIOLENT RAINFOREST METROPOLIS
in Geographical Review
Rivero S
(2022)
Urban Amazonians use Fishing as a Strategy for Coping with Food Insecurity
in The Journal of Development Studies
Tregidgo D
(2020)
Tough fishing and severe seasonal food insecurity in Amazonian flooded forests
in People and Nature
Tregidgo DJ
(2017)
Rainforest metropolis casts 1,000-km defaunation shadow.
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Description | We've discovered that remote and road-less cities have higher social vulnerability to climatic shocks. We've also discovered that extreme climatic events lead to an increased probability of low birth-weight, associated with life-long disadvantage. We've also discovered that the exposure and impacts of floods and droughts vary significantly by city. We have found that - aside from monetary income, many other social, cultural and political factors determine a family's food and nutritional security. We have also found that, despite assumptions that Amazonians have abundant access to "ecosystem services", levels of food and nutritional security here are actually very concerning, for example, when compared to other regions of Brazil. Our research has also shown, for the first time, the existence of so-called "food deserts" in rainforest cities. Albeit assumptions of exclusive reliance on retail outlets for food do not wholly apply. We found that many urban households in Amazonia employ other strategies of accessing food. Work on the early warning system to predict food insecurity is on-going. |
Exploitation Route | The modelling platform we're developing will be shared with potential interested parties. We also aim to influence decision-making by both third sector organizations and government(s). My former Phd Student is also advancing further the platform, designed to be open source code: /; https://erickchacon.github.io/ |
Sectors | Environment,Healthcare,Transport |
URL | http://wp.lancs.ac.uk/rede-cidada-am |
Description | To develop further research in Brazil, led by the federal government. In particular, the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz). Furthermore, as the basis for a citizens network. In addition, this research led to L Parry being invited by the Brazilian Federal Ministry of Health to become a member of the Amazonian working group on territorial health governance. Further related dialogue has included L Parry attending regional meetings in Amazonia around the public policy agenda for Food and Nutrition Security (SISAN). |
First Year Of Impact | 2017 |
Sector | Communities and Social Services/Policy,Healthcare |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Description | Faculty of Science and Technology Impact Fund |
Amount | £4,985 (GBP) |
Funding ID | EAA1155 (Lancaster internal financial code) |
Organisation | Lancaster University |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 09/2017 |
End | 05/2018 |
Description | Newton RCUK CONFAP |
Amount | £100,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | ES/M011542/1 |
Organisation | Economic and Social Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2015 |
End | 09/2016 |
Description | Research and Innovation Staff Exchange (RISE) Horizon2020 |
Amount | € 1,705,500 (EUR) |
Funding ID | Project ODYSSEA 691053 |
Organisation | European Commission H2020 |
Sector | Public |
Country | Belgium |
Start | 01/2015 |
End | 12/2019 |
Description | NEW NETWORK: Amazonian cities and extreme hydro-climatic events: research to reduce vulnerability and build resilience |
Organisation | Federal University of Amazonas |
Country | Brazil |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | We have launched an idea and funding proposal to the Newton Foundation to start a new UK-Brazil research partnership, based on this new network. We have proposed the following: 1. Consolidate a research network to advance multi-disciplinary research on the socio-economic, environmental and health dimensions of extreme hydro-climatic events and Amazonian cities 2. Examine how adaptive capacity, local institutions and natural hazard exposure determine the impacts of extreme hydro-climatic events on urban Amazonians 3. Determine how droughts affect river-based food distribution to road-less cities and prices of imported food staples 4. Initiate a network of citizens from cities vulnerable to extreme hydro-climatic events to ensure that research efforts to predict food insecurity are locally-relevant and useful for building adaptive capacity and community resilience 5. Maximize career opportunities for Amazonian scientists, including researcher exchange, postgraduate training in advanced analytical techniques, and PhD opportunities |
Collaborator Contribution | We jointly wrote the Newton funding proposal |
Impact | Outcomes are pending. |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | NEW NETWORK: Amazonian cities and extreme hydro-climatic events: research to reduce vulnerability and build resilience |
Organisation | Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) |
Country | Brazil |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | We have launched an idea and funding proposal to the Newton Foundation to start a new UK-Brazil research partnership, based on this new network. We have proposed the following: 1. Consolidate a research network to advance multi-disciplinary research on the socio-economic, environmental and health dimensions of extreme hydro-climatic events and Amazonian cities 2. Examine how adaptive capacity, local institutions and natural hazard exposure determine the impacts of extreme hydro-climatic events on urban Amazonians 3. Determine how droughts affect river-based food distribution to road-less cities and prices of imported food staples 4. Initiate a network of citizens from cities vulnerable to extreme hydro-climatic events to ensure that research efforts to predict food insecurity are locally-relevant and useful for building adaptive capacity and community resilience 5. Maximize career opportunities for Amazonian scientists, including researcher exchange, postgraduate training in advanced analytical techniques, and PhD opportunities |
Collaborator Contribution | We jointly wrote the Newton funding proposal |
Impact | Outcomes are pending. |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | 3-day workshop in Amazonia planning research activities for predicting urban food insecurity |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | We planned 4 lines of research activity, spanning: 1) transport geography research to understand spatial and temporal variation in food distribution journey times and freight costs in Amazonia 2) developing empirically-based models to predict urban food prices for staple and imported industrialized foods 3) vulnerability research to assess how food insecurity is influenced by food prices and adaptive capacity at household, neighbourhood and city-scales 4) developing large-scale analytical systems to predict the risk of urban food insecurity in time and space We have decided on new funding proposals, developed phds for co-supervised PhD projects, research plans for 2015, etc |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | Citizens workshop on extreme hydroclimatic events |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
Results and Impact | Citizens workshop in Manaus in Oct 2016. One of the goals was to generate a trans-disciplinary research agenda. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Citizens workshop on food and nutritional security in Ipixuna, Amazonas, Brazil |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Organization and running of workshop designed to disseminate research and also to strengthen citizens network to decrease vulnerability to extreme hydroclimatic events in Amazonas. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://wp.lancs.ac.uk/rede-cidada-am/eventos/ |
Description | Citizens workshop on food and nutritional security in Maués, Amazonas, Brazil |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | A workshop in the Amazon (organized by me) with the dual aims of disseminating research and building a citizens network for reducing vulnerability to extreme hydro-climatic events. Seeking also to implement a Food Security council in Maués, Amazonas. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://wp.lancs.ac.uk/rede-cidada-am/oficina-rede-cidada-maues/ |
Description | Held a science policy debate on predicting food security at Brazil's Ministry of Social Development |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The Ministry of Social Development (MDS) in Brasilia offered to host our early-warning system (in-progress) for predicting urban food insecurity during extreme climatic events in Amazonia. This is very exciting because MDS is a national reference for online social indicators and vulnerability data relevant to poverty, deprivation and food security. I discussed the work with one of the the heads of Brazil's Science Without Borders scheme, as part of my current work with them as a Special Visiting Researcher. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
URL | http://www.mds.gov.br/saladeimprensa/noticias/2014/outubro/inseguranca-alimentar-na-amazonia-e-tema-... |
Description | Invited presentation at Adaptation Futures conference on climate change and extreme events, in Fortaleza, Brazil |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | Interesting discussions with other presenters and audience re: political changes in brazil related to disaster management I am now involved in discussions for Horizon2020 proposals, in conjunction with other presenters at this session |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
URL | http://adaptationfutures2014.ccst.inpe.br/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Conference_Programme_Complete_o... |
Description | Lecture on Amazonian resilience to extreme climatic events |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Lecture at Federal University of Pernambuco, Brazil |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Led a workshop at FioCruz on sustainable urban environments and inter-disciplinary research in Amazonia |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Health professionals |
Results and Impact | We identified similarities and areas of mutual interest between Fiocruz and Lancaster University. We discussed the relevance of Fiocruz's expertise with indigenous peoples and nutrition for climate change research We have planned institutional mapping to target priority areas for collaboration. We are also planning research exchanges in 2015, hopefully assisted by Newton foundation money, which we have jointly applied for. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | Led seminar on food insecurity at the Fiocruz health research agency in Manaus |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
Results and Impact | Around 40 people attended this workshop at the health research agency in Manaus |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Luke Parry 30-minute radio interview on A Critica, Maues, Amazonas |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Radio interview on show hosted by local political. Designed to share the main messages of our meeting and build momentum towards establishing a municipal food security council in Maués. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://wp.lancs.ac.uk/rede-cidada-am/2017/11/27/bem-vindo/ |
Description | Luke Parry and Fiocruz and UFAM colleagues participated in Regional Seminar on building understanding of social determinants of health in Amazonia |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Participation in an invitation-only workshop organized by Brazilians Ministry of Health, designed to build (for the first time) a regional understanding of how social factors shape health and disease in Amazonia. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://amazonia.fiocruz.br/index.php/2017/10/03/em-manaus-seminario-internacional-aborda-desenvolvim... |
Description | Presentation at University of Coloarado Boulder |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Discussing future large-scale collaborations at this climate-health event |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Presented on food insecurity research at the Federal University of Amazonas, Manaus, Brazil |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Discussing current and future research at UFAM, Manaus |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Research seminar at Oxford University |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Gave a research lecture in the Geography Dept of Oxford university |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
URL | http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/event/2134 |