Welsh Election Survey 2019
Lead Research Organisation:
CARDIFF UNIVERSITY
Department Name: Cardiff School of Law and Politics
Abstract
The proposed research seeks to extend the 2016 Welsh Election Study (WES) and, in so doing, provide the first-ever study in Wales where substantial individual-level data on voting behaviour and political attitudes for elections to different levels of government is available. This would add crucial information that would help substantially in fulfilling one of the major research goals of WES: understanding why vote choices can differ between different electoral arenas. This extension of WES would also offer the only opportunity to gain detailed insight into the potential realignment in Welsh politics that the 2019 election could deliver.
The British Election Study (BES) cannot be expected to explore in detail this potential historic re-alignment in Welsh politics; they have a wider remit to explore the election across Britain, which they are having to fulfil at very short notice. It will not include sufficient Welsh-specific questions to explore the historic shifts occurring in Welsh politics.
The research would comprise an online survey of voting age adults in Wales (with a sample of approximately 2000; fieldwork to be conducted by YouGov). With these data the project aims:
1. To make possible a detailed and focused account of voting behaviour in Wales - one of the key battlegrounds in the 2019 General Election;
2. To understand how Welsh voters interact with UK-level politics after two decades of devolution;
3. To add to the substantial time-series of questions collected in Wales as part of the Welsh Election Study.
The British Election Study (BES) cannot be expected to explore in detail this potential historic re-alignment in Welsh politics; they have a wider remit to explore the election across Britain, which they are having to fulfil at very short notice. It will not include sufficient Welsh-specific questions to explore the historic shifts occurring in Welsh politics.
The research would comprise an online survey of voting age adults in Wales (with a sample of approximately 2000; fieldwork to be conducted by YouGov). With these data the project aims:
1. To make possible a detailed and focused account of voting behaviour in Wales - one of the key battlegrounds in the 2019 General Election;
2. To understand how Welsh voters interact with UK-level politics after two decades of devolution;
3. To add to the substantial time-series of questions collected in Wales as part of the Welsh Election Study.
Planned Impact
Data sets will be made available to the wider academic community.
There will be impact on government in Wales and at UK level. The research would provide the first-ever study in Wales where we had substantial individual-level data on voting behaviour and political attitudes for elections to different levels of government. This would add crucial information that would help substantially in fulfilling one of the major research goals of WES: understanding why vote choices can differ between different electoral arenas. This extension of WES would also give us with the only opportunity to gain detailed insight into the potential realignment in Welsh politics that the 2019 election could deliver.
We are proposing a number of dissemination events in Cardiff and London (January 2020). We also propose to host a joint event with the Scottish Election Study (SES) in April 2020, in London, to present our findings, in addition to several events in Wales focused on dissemination.
There will be impact on government in Wales and at UK level. The research would provide the first-ever study in Wales where we had substantial individual-level data on voting behaviour and political attitudes for elections to different levels of government. This would add crucial information that would help substantially in fulfilling one of the major research goals of WES: understanding why vote choices can differ between different electoral arenas. This extension of WES would also give us with the only opportunity to gain detailed insight into the potential realignment in Welsh politics that the 2019 election could deliver.
We are proposing a number of dissemination events in Cardiff and London (January 2020). We also propose to host a joint event with the Scottish Election Study (SES) in April 2020, in London, to present our findings, in addition to several events in Wales focused on dissemination.
Organisations
Publications
Wyn Jones R
(2020)
Progressive home rule?
in IPPR Progressive Review
Wyn Jones R
(2022)
Understanding a Century of Labour Dominance: Social Science and the Puzzle of Voting Behaviour in Wales
in Transactions of the Honourable Society of Cymmrodorion
Wyn Jones R
(2021)
What about Wales? Brexit and the Future of the UK
in Discover Society: New Series
Description | Findings continue to be extensively used to inform public and political debate of political attitudes in Wales, as well as debate about how attitudes in Wales compare to those in other part of the UK as well as further afield. |
Sector | Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Cultural,Societal,Policy & public services |
Description | Welsh Election Study 2021 |
Amount | £622,968 (GBP) |
Funding ID | ES/V009559/1 |
Organisation | Economic and Social Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2021 |
End | 02/2025 |
Title | Welsh Election Study 2019 |
Description | Pre-wave and post-election wave |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Detailed insights into the attitudes of the Welsh electorate at the time of the 2019 UK general election. |
URL | https://github.com/WelshElectionStudy/2019_Welsh_Election_Study |
Description | Briefing on Welsh Election Study research to the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (29/09/2022). |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | This is an independent group established by the Welsh Government carrying out a major study into constitutional reform options. We supplied data on public attitudes |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Colleague Jac Larner presented Welsh Election Study research to the ITV News Conference (08/02/2023). |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | This is a UK-wide gathering of the ITV's newsreaders and senior broadcast journalists |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Colleague James Griffiths presented Welsh Election Study research to a team from the House of Commons Library (07/03/2023) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | At their invitation we provided researchers from the House of Commons Library with an overview of political attitudes in Wales |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Colleagues James Griffiths and Ed Gareth Poole presented Welsh Election Study research to a delegation from the embassy of Japan including the First Secretary (08/03/2023) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | We used Welsh Election Study data and analysis to provide an overview of political attitudes in Wales to a delegation from the embassy of Japan including the First Secretary. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Presentation to Plaid Cymru Annual Conference, March 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Presentation of Election Study findings at Plaid Cymru Annual Conference, Cardiff, March 2022 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presented Welsh Election Study research at an event at the Pierhead building in Cardiff held to mark 100 years of Labour electoral success in Wales (15/11/2022). |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The event was attended by approximately 90 people including policymakers, journalists and members of the Welsh Cabinet and wider Senedd, including the First Minister Mark Drakeford |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presented Welsh Election Study research to the Government of Catalonia representative in the UK and his team (26/01/2023). |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presented Welsh Election Study research to the Government of Catalonia representative in the UK and his team |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Provided a follow-up presentation and discussion to the Independent Comission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (18/11/2022). |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | This was a requested follow up meeting with the members and staff support member of an independent commission established by the Welsh Government to consider constitutional options for the future of Wales. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | UK government senior briefing |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Presentation of main findings from 2019 election study |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Virtual Eisteddfod presentation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | In lieu of a physical presentation (made impossible by the pandemic), we organised a very well attended webinar at the Eisteddfod (the event was conducted through the medium of Welsh) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9es9ShEDuHc&t=673s |
Description | Wales Governance Centre webinar on Wales Election Study 2019 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | In lieu of planned presentations at party conferences (all cancelled due to Covid), we organised a particularly well-attended webinar at which we presented key findings and engaged in an extended Q&A session |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDS28j-fcpg |
Description | Welsh Conservative Conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Frige meeting at Welsh Conservative Conference |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Welsh Govt Senior Briefing |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Presentation on main findings from study to senior figures in the Welsh Government |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Welsh Labour Annual Conference Briefing, March 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Presentation of Election Study findings at Welsh Labour Annual Conference in Llandudno |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |