MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling

The threat to human populations from new infectious diseases has been highlighted in recent years by the 2003 SARS epidemic, the highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu strain and ongoing concerns about bioterrorism. Preparing for such eventualities is therefore a key priority for public health agencies and governments worldwide. In this context, computer modelling of epidemics coupled with scientifically rigorous data analysis have proven themselves as powerful tools for giving insight into the spread of disease outbreaks and how we can try and control the transmission of a new disease. The Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling aims to undertaking research in epidemic modelling, and apply the tools developed to priority disease threats of concern. The Centre will provide a core infrastructure - the Outbreak Analysis Unit (OAU) - for establishing long-term collaborative relationships with key public health organisations (e.g. WHO, UN, HPA) and for translating the fundamental epidemiological research of Centre researchers into real improvements in outbreak planning and response. In addition, the Centre will develop the first truly global epidemic simulator. Staff of the Centre will also have a key role in providing training to public health professionals and policy makers.

The threat to human populations from new and re-emerging pathogens has been highlighted in recent years by the 2003 SARS epidemic, the pandemic potential of the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza strain and ongoing concerns about bioterrorism. Pandemic preparedness is therefore a key policy priority for public health agencies and governments worldwide. In this context, modern epidemiological modelling and analysis methods have proven themselves increasingly powerful tools for giving insight into the patterns of emergence of novel outbreaks and the options available for their control. The proposed Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling aims to deepen and systemise the exploitation of epidemiological research on outbreaks by public health agencies and policy makers tasked with formulating and implementing response strategies to novel infectious disease threats. The eight Centre applicants are world-leaders in outbreak modelling and analysis. They have broad experience in responding to epidemics (e.g. BSE/vCJD , foot and mouth disease, SARS, H5N1 avian flu) and providing real-time epidemiological analysis which has directly influenced disease control policy. However, infrastructure to support this work has previously been lacking ? meaning ad hoc teams have had to be assembled to the detriment of longer term research, and that capacity is lacking to respond to many requests for specific policy-related work. Furthermore, relationships with the relevant clinical communities and government bodies have not always been able to be established and reinforced over the long-term timescale necessary for optimal communication. The proposed Centre would provide a core infrastructure - the Outbreak Analysis Unit (OAU) for establishing long-term collaborative relationships with key public health organisations (WHO, UN, HPA, ECDC) and for translating the fundamental epidemiological research of Centre researchers into real improvements in outbreak planning and response. Coupled to the OAU, a core (independently funded) research programme will develop the first global epidemic simulation and analysis platform, with the aim of providing next generation predictive modelling tools for epidemic planning and response. Six key thematically categorised satellite research clusters will be established, each addressing a key research priority in outbreak epidemiology via multiple individual research projects led by the applicants. The results generated by this research will be rapidly utilised by the core. Staff of the Outbreak analysis Unit will also have a key role in providing specialist skills transfer to public health partners, with all Centre researchers playing an active role in provision of innovative short training courses for public health professionals and policy makers.